Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[Platten44]

Footywire tend to be pretty accurate in my experience and they have him as OOC this year.

They go at 85%
It’s where Ralph does his research

 

[flinchfree]

I like Rayner. Perfect age to be an instant contributor to the team, doesn't need polish just continuity.
Got a heap of forward craft and a very very nice mark at his height.
If it didn't cost much to get him over, would be a super addition to our forward line.

 

[triple treat]

It’s not something that is reported on in the open media. Cousins had “rumours” for years before it all blew up in the media.

The media live for sh&t like this, so if there was any evidence they would off reported it. Rumors are Rumors till there not!

 

[kenneje]

Just like we went after Dusty and Petracca before they exploded, Rayner could potentially be a premiership winning trade. We'd be buying low considering his untapped potential.

If Sam thinks he can get the best out of him, I'd be giving up our first or future first for him.

 

[The Chad and I]

Just like we went after Dusty and Petracca before they exploded, Rayner could potentially be a premiership winning trade. We'd be buying low considering his untapped potential.

If Sam thinks he can get the best out of him, I'd be giving up our first or future first for him.

Both Martin and Petracca demonstrated plenty of ability to justify that risk.
Rayner is a projection of hope and hope alone.
The guy is a powerful small forward who occasionally does something exciting.

I'm all for risky adventures but Rayner has shown ZERO ability to play any meaningful midfield role.
I wouldn't even want him as a small forward given the potential cost.
Ginnivan is outperforming him and he came for a modest price tag.

 

[flinchfree]

Rayner is a projection of hope and hope alone.
The guy is a powerful small forward who occasionally does something exciting.

I think that's not super accurate.
He's averaged a little over 14 disposals, 3-4 marks, a goal, 2-3 tackles, a goal assist, 2-3 inside 50's - per game the last three years.
As a medium forward.
Which is what I think he is, we'd not be bringing him in as alot more than that though he's got a bit of versatility.
Maybe I watch too many Brissy games, and he's definitely been inconsistent, but some of that has been getting over some serious injuries and Fagan chopping the team around to get the look he's after.
He's classy, he's got x-factor, and can take a really nice mark as well as rove them off the deck.
He's better than anyone else we've got up forward at what he does.
Moorey and Ginni and Connor Mac and Watson aren't the same type, the talls aren't the same type, and there's no guarantee you find that kind of marking forward easily through the draft.
Best comparison for me is if you had a Newk playing up forward with a better jump.
He hasn't gotten to that level often enough, but he HAS gotten there.

But yes, I wouldn't pay the earth to get him in.

 

[The Chad and I]

I think that's not super accurate.
He's averaged a little over 14 disposals, 3-4 marks, a goal, 2-3 tackles, a goal assist, 2-3 inside 50's - per game the last three years.
As a medium forward.
Which is what I think he is, we'd not be bringing him in as alot more than that though he's got a bit of versatility.
Maybe I watch too many Brissy games, and he's definitely been inconsistent, but some of that has been getting over some serious injuries and Fagan chopping the team around to get the look he's after.
He's classy, he's got x-factor, and can take a really nice mark as well as rove them off the deck.
He's better than anyone else we've got up forward at what he does.
Moorey and Ginni and Connor Mac and Watson aren't the same type, the talls aren't the same type, and there's no guarantee you find that kind of marking forward easily through the draft.
Best comparison for me is if you had a Newk playing up forward with a better jump.
He hasn't gotten to that level often enough, but he HAS gotten there.

But yes, I wouldn't pay the earth to get him in.

I was addressing the prospect of Rayner becoming the next Martin/Petracca.

I agree that Rayner has an acceptable baseline of stats for a medium forward and some craft/skills, but I wouldn't be putting up too much in draft collateral to get that kind of performance from him either.

Second-round pick if the club thinks it can get more from him as a forward is about right, but I certainly hope they don't believe he will become a mid.

 

[Blackhawk42]

In 2017 at the draft, Brisbane had pick 1 while we had 45 and 67.

If this draft happened again Rayner would likely be the one going at 67 instead of Dylan Moore

13

Dylan Moore

Age

25

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

.

We made out like absolute bandits.

He's never had the tank to be anything more than a cameo player. A very naturally talented one, but a bit player nonetheless. Most Brisbane fans wanted him dropped for the first half of this year. Against us he spent time in the middle and still only finished with 7 touches. He was then having a big old laugh with James Worpel

5

James Worpel

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.2

5star

HB

11.3

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

5.1

5star

No current season stats available

D

15.6

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

9.4

5star

M

1.0

1star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.8

4star

after the siren.

What would you give up for a bloke in his mid 20's who is still putting in performances like that and never had a genuine breakout game or season?

 

[Brant]

I think that's not super accurate.
He's averaged a little over 14 disposals, 3-4 marks, a goal, 2-3 tackles, a goal assist, 2-3 inside 50's - per game the last three years. He's classy, he's got x-factor, and can take a really nice mark as well as rove them off the deck. He's better than anyone else we've got up forward at what he does.
Moorey and Ginni and Connor Mac and Watson aren't the same type, the talls aren't the same type, and there's no guarantee you find that kind of marking forward easily through the draft.
Best comparison for me is if you had a Newk playing up forward with a better jump.
He hasn't gotten to that level often enough, but he HAS gotten there.

But yes, I wouldn't pay the earth to get him in.

Hardwick is far more effective & does it swinging between Defence / Forward.

I'd probs take him + F3 for a 3rd + F2* (because, why not?), maybe as a Breust replacement, but I'd not consider him a walk-up starter on performance to date.


*I know that's unders, but that's kinda my point.

 

[flinchfree]

In 2017 at the draft, Brisbane had pick 1 while we had 45 and 67.

If this draft happened again Rayner would likely be the one going at 67 instead of Dylan Moore.

We made out like absolute bandits.

He's never had the tank to be anything more than a cameo player. A very naturally talented one, but a bit player nonetheless. Most Brisbane fans wanted him dropped for the first half of this year. Against us he spent time in the middle and still only finished with 7 touches. He was then having a big old laugh with James Worpel after the siren.

What would you give up for a bloke in his mid 20's who is still putting in performances like that and never had a genuine breakout game or season?

I'd give a 2nd round pick.
Think he's very talented and has produced, just not often enough.
Very similar thinking to picking up Scrim, the upside if realized would be tremendous.

If I could add one down back - Battle, and one up front - Rayner, and add a first round pick utility like Draper or Travaglia and then the NGA backline draft prospect......I'm feeling awfully confident going into next season I've got pretty much all I need to challenge everyone but maybe Sydney depending on if they hold this kind of form.

 

[Sixpence]

I'd give a 2nd round pick.
Think he's very talented and has produced, just not often enough.
Very similar thinking to picking up Scrim, the upside if realized would be tremendous.

Scrim played 4 games in 2 years at the Suns, he was low cost and very low risk. Rayner has played 130 games and has not shown anything to suggest he's about to explode.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I'd give a 2nd round pick.
Think he's very talented and has produced, just not often enough.
Very similar thinking to picking up Scrim, the upside if realized would be tremendous.

My hesitation is that he goes missing in big games - not sure you can coach that out of him.

 

[The Chad and I]

Scrim played 4 games in 2 years at the Suns, he was low cost and very low risk. Rayner has played 130 games and has not shown anything to suggest he's about to explode.

Also there were mitigating circumstances like injury and being away from home, also an acknowledged deficient attitude by Scrimshaw, all of which culminated in a 4th round pick trade. Low risk, high potential rewards, which has paid off for us.

The talent and potential was not doubted, but the risk was in the lad applying himself.
The talent of Rayner is undoubted as a forward, but also restricted by his aerobic limits.
He's just not a mid, and we've had plenty of data to give us confidence in this.

Past performance is evidence of future performance for Rayner.

Unless there's some hidden secret to unlock some ability which has been hitherto kept hidden.
Trade what you see, not what you feel.

 

[Manila_Hawk]

Also there were mitigating circumstances like injury and being away from home, also an acknowledged deficient attitude by Scrimshaw, all of which culminated in a 4th round pick trade. Low risk, high potential rewards, which has paid off for us.

The talent and potential was not doubted, but the risk was in the lad applying himself.
The talent of Rayner is undoubted as a forward, but also restricted by his aerobic limits.
He's just not a mid, and we've had plenty of data to give us confidence in this.

Past performance is evidence of future performance for Rayner.

Unless there's some hidden secret to unlock some ability which has been hitherto kept hidden.
Trade what you see, not what you feel.

Wowee. The Chad is getting my vote for POTY.

Trade what you see, not what you feel.

 

[peetoo]

My hesitation is that he goes missing in big games - not sure you can coach that out of him.

Much rather have their guy who looks and plays like Modra. Obv they won’t let him go

 

[MazHawk]

If Battle is after over 750k he won’t be coming to Hawthorn. These contract numbers that get thrown around by the media and punters are usually way off the mark. Blokes like Ben McKay must laugh their asses off that people think he’s getting close to a mil a season. No one even knew who Battle was before this FA talk.

You don't watch a lot of footy do you? I know about battle and thought he's a good player before all this trade talk started.
Now though, we're chasing him and he's really stepped up. I think he's a must-have as he'll immediately make us a better team in terms of structure.

 

[The Gulden Child]

I look at Battle as a kind of Temu version of James Sicily. That is not a slight on Battle as Sic is the absolute premium version of a general hybrid Half Back / Key Back.

So if we paid Battle $950k what would that make Sic worth on the open market? Probably $1.2m+?

He looks like a $700 - 750k player to me and thats with the "moving clubs" premium included in that number.

Id only be paying the absolute premium defenders (I am talking Harris Andrews / Jacob Weitering / Tom Stewart) $950k.

Imo Hawks have a big issue if Mabior goes down with Lewis out long term. Getting Battle gives you the luxury of putting Sicily or Battle forward on a needs basis, or alongside Mabior in an ideal world.

 

[Nugett]

Imo Hawks have a big issue if Mabior goes down with Lewis out long term. Getting Battle gives you the luxury of putting Sicily or Battle forward on a needs basis, or alongside Mabior in an ideal world.

It could also see Weddle being played forward, or Will Day being trialed there with Weddle going in the middle. It opens up a lot of options with the versatility that Sam is employing. I also forgot about Hardwick, who is also playing both ends of the ground.

 

[kazzooka]

Battle wants to do the right thing by StKilda. Regardless of his requirements or his responsibilities. I repeat, the AFL determines compensation.

Doing "the right thing by StKilda" would be signing a contract extension with them for minimum chips.

He's leaving, that isn't doing the "right thing by them".

I'm in favour of him negotiating the best possible deal for himself whether that is StKilda, Hawthorn or elsewhere. But there's no need to pretend he's doing it for anyone other than Josh Battle, he's a good player that is in demand and StKilda want to keep him so the market will set his contract, not FA compensation.

 

[kazzooka]

if I was on $600 000 I would take $800 000 to work in a successful, fun, vibrant work place rather than $900 000 to work in depressing negative environment that had not achieved anything since 1966.

That's a bit harsh on StKilda, are you forgetting about "The Streak" in 2004 where they won like 10 H&A games in a row.

 

[peetoo]

Bemused how in the media world hawks go from non destination to hot destination in 10 weeks

Truth is three very valuable players saw the opportunity last year, and a couple the year before

 

[H00t]

Just like we went after Dusty and Petracca before they exploded, Rayner could potentially be a premiership winning trade. We'd be buying low considering his untapped potential.

If Sam thinks he can get the best out of him, I'd be giving up our first or future first for him.

In their second years Dusty and Petracca both had years well above what Rayner has shown so far. They were always ridiculous talents. Dusty was more off-field issues while Petracca was about taking that next step into being one of the best players in the league.

With Rayner it’s more hoping he can put together the glimpses and become just a good AFL footballer at this point.

Stylistically he might be similar performance wise Rayner is way behind. So it might change but he’s not tracking to any great height so far.

 

[butlers hawks]

Doing "the right thing by StKilda" would be signing a contract extension with them for minimum chips.

He's leaving, that isn't doing the "right thing by them".

I'm in favour of him negotiating the best possible deal for himself whether that is StKilda, Hawthorn or elsewhere. But there's no need to pretend he's doing it for anyone other than Josh Battle, he's a good player that is in demand and StKilda want to keep him so the market will set his contract, not FA compensation.

Do you see the comments by Sam Landsberger?

"The Herald Sun’s Sam Landsberger said the Saints are “really nervous” that if Battle departs, they won’t get Band 1 compensation, which is why they are likely to offer Battle plenty of money, hoping Hawthorn’s offer is in a similar vicinity."

Sounding like its StKilda trying to drive the price up, likely leaking the numbers to reporters to try and force the Hawks to put it up

It is in the "Trade Whispers" article that aggregated Ralph and Landsberger reporting to make it sound like hes on his way

 

[Nugett]

Do you see the comments by Sam Landsberger?

"The Herald Sun’s Sam Landsberger said the Saints are “really nervous” that if Battle departs, they won’t get Band 1 compensation, which is why they are likely to offer Battle plenty of money, hoping Hawthorn’s offer is in a similar vicinity."

Sounding like its StKilda trying to drive the price up, likely leaking the numbers to reporters to try and force the Hawks to put it up

It is in the "Trade Whispers" article that aggregated Ralph and Landsberger reporting to make it sound like hes on his way

It makes sense for the saints to up his price. They can’t match a bid, or do a trade, so the only option they have is to up his contract, in the hope we match, so they get the best compensation they can get. The risk they are taking with this approach, is if Battle agrees to their contract and stays, which then forces them to move on other players or restructure other contracts, to accomodate his new pay, to stay inside the cap. The biggest winner out of this is Battle and his management team.

 

[flinchfree]

My hesitation is that he goes missing in big games - not sure you can coach that out of him.

Hmmm, you might be right. I haven't seen him in enough of those type games to correlate his performances but just you saying it out loud sounds likely to my ears.

I think I must just like him more than others on here.
That's ok, my wishing-into-existence abilities are way below par anyway.