List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading Part 2

[Hodgy]

How are we going compared to Hawthorn though... as you don't appear to have mentioned them...

And Sydney who were at the bottom with us 4 years ago. And Geelong who have never had a rebuild and just resigned a bunch of over 30’s.

The need for rebuilds and how long they take always seems a bit of an excuse of new coaches to avoid pressure and scrutiny for a few years.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Im happy to use F1 but not on bailey. anyway they need picks this year for their academy and FS. 25 is fair seriously. if they happy for him to leave.

The criticism on Bailey last year, was he was too straight line in his running patterns ....gotta be careful, players look better in winning sides

Is Bailey an initiator, no .....he benefits from the work of the playmakers in the BRIS midfield

He's not a need for us

 

[crow2crow]

The criticism on Bailey last year, was he was too straight line in his running patterns ....gotta be careful, players look better in winning sides

Is Bailey an initiator, no .....he benefits from the work of the playmakers in the BRIS midfield

He's not a need for us

im ok with that too but if we were interested in his pace (which we still lack) im not paying more than pick 25 is all im saying

 

[mickfaxis]

im ok with that too but if we were interested in his pace (which we still lack) im not paying more than pick 25 is all im saying

We had a crack at him a few years ago and he showed no interest. Why would he come home now when they've just won a flag and they'll go deep in September the next 2-4 years?
I'd prefer to go all in at the end of 2026 when he's a FA. He'll be 27 and maybe content with 2 flags by then. That gives us 2 seasons to look like a half decent team he's willing to play for.

 

[spenze]

The criticism on Bailey last year, was he was too straight line in his running patterns ....gotta be careful, players look better in winning sides

Is Bailey an initiator, no .....he benefits from the work of the playmakers in the BRIS midfield

He's not a need for us

I'd like to say we should target players in losing sides but we really can't target our own players

 

[Cromulant]

I'd like to say we should target players in losing sides but we really can't target our own players

I get what Wayne means though. He wouldn't be in the top 10-12 of their side IMO. His game his hugely dependent on guys around him.

That said, if he wanted to come to Adelaide I'd absolutely have a crack.

 

[Scorpus]

Brisbane took nine years to develop their current list in their most recent rebuild. Melbourne spent 15 years rebuilding.

Carlton had two good years in 20, with two rebuilds.

North Melbourne are eight or nine years in, with no end in sight.

Gold Coast have been rebuilding their whole time in the league - hell, you could argue it's not a rebuild if nothing was ever built.

Richmond? Well, you could make the case they spent nearly 35 years rebuilding, with three good years in that time.

Essendon? Let's not be cruel.

Rebuilds are very hard. They look and feel exactly like this does.

Five years for a rebuild to go from the first appearance in the bottom four to making finals is about right, and eight to 10 years to win a flag is also about right, for a successful rebuild. Anything beyond that you're usually looking at clubs undergoing multiple rebuilds.

Brisbane made the bottom four in 2010 and took nine years to return to finals, and 14 years to win a flag. But their first rebuild failed and required another go around 2015. They spent 3-4 years out of the finals after that point, and nine years to winning a flag.

But this has always been the case. I remember back around 2020/2021, some posters on here were absolutely deluded into thinking a rebuild didn't take that long. I looked up how long it takes and found stuff like this:

Yeah no. You should look it up

Spoon to flag since 1990
Brisbane - 3 years
West Coast - 8 years
Sydney - 11 years
Collingwood - 11 years
Richmond - 13 years
Western Bulldogs - 14 years
GWS - ongoing (9 years)
Gold Coast - ongoing (10 years)
Carlton - ongoing (19 years)
Fremantle - ongoing (20 years)
St Kilda - ongoing (21 years)
Melbourne - ongoing (24 years)

Also ongoing: Brisbane, Essendon, Adelaide

If you do it in 10 years you have done really well

Melbourne took 24 years, Brisbane took 7 years after winning a spoon and that's one of the shortest in the AFL era. If we win a flag before 2030 we will have performed better than average, and that's because when you win a spoon you are absolute shit and it usually takes a long time to reverse that stench

These are from 2021:

Based on the history of prior wooden spoon winners, realistically we are 5+ years off making finals. That's generally how long it takes for a team to go from their first appearance in the bottom 4 to finals

Examples:

Brisbane - Bottom 4 in 2014, spoon 2017, finals 2019

St Kilda - Bottom 4 in 2013, spoon 2014, finals 2020

GWS - Bottom 4 and spoon in 2012, finals 2016 - and that was with significant draft concessions

West Coast - Bottom 4 in 2008, spoon in 2010, finals in 2011 and flag in 2018

Melbourne - Bottom 4 in 2012, finals 2018

Richmond - Bottom 4 and spoon in 2007, finals in 2013, flag in 2017

---

So based on that we're probably looking at finals in the 2025-2027 timeframe and a premiership in the early 2030s if we get it together

If we execute our rebuild successfully, in 2026 we should be in our first or second year of making finals but still several years off a flag

Nope. Making finals for the first time in 2025 is more realistic

No it's not, these are the actual facts about a rebuild.

The average amount of years it takes between when a club first reaches the bottom 4 on the way to a spoon, to making finals again, is 5 years.

We first made the bottom 4 in 2020. We should be aiming for finals in 2025. If you are expecting a spoon side to make finals 3 years later you will be extremely disappointed because that rarely happens

Some people were setting themselves up for disappointment if they believed it would take less time than that.

Having said that, our issue right now is that we should be closer to finals than we are. If we're supposed to make finals in 2025 to have a successful rebuild, we shouldn't be finishing in the bottom 4 and stagnating in terms of wins.

 

[Scorpus]

Of course the club should have known it would take 8-10 years if they had bothered to research how other clubs executed successful rebuilds.

I wonder if our list management and coaching decisions have been made with 2028 to 2030 in mind?

 

[1970crow]

Who said it was a 5 year rebuild? Rebuilds almost always take longer than that.

As I pointed out before... we kept a core of older players when we did the big cleanout. Those veterans are now reaching the end of their playing careers, and their performances are dropping off. We're now at the transition point where performances will start to be driven by the younger players, as the veterans are progressively removed from the team. Whether or not our youngsters are capable of making that step will ultimately determine the success or failure of the rebuild.

Club said they were halfway through the 4 years of going to the draft that rebuilds take. That was about 3 years ago.

 

[1970crow]

Im happy for you to back it up. Don't turn it around on me though. Its standard practice for the burden of proof to be on the one bringing forth the claim.

So if I say he’s on $600k, I don’t need to back it up? You’re claiming it’s not near $1m, where’s your evidence?

 

[1970crow]

And you do? You are confusing with Perryman who is also a UFA and also from GWS who Port Power offered 7 years at $850K lol.

Perryman is reported to be nearing $1m currently. Kane Cornes is up in arms over it.

 

[1970crow]

Of course the club should have known it would take 8-10 years if they had bothered to research how other clubs executed successful rebuilds.

I wonder if our list management and coaching decisions have been made with 2028 to 2030 in mind?

Our strategy was only ever geared towards still being in finals contention late in the season as soon as possible. Our patience level was extremely low.

 

[CrowToon]

So if I say he’s on $600k, I don’t need to back it up? You’re claiming it’s not near $1m, where’s your evidence?

I never claimed anything. You provided a figure and I asked where you got the figure from as it was a surprising amount.

If it were 600k then it wouldn't surprise me and I would be so interested.

I don't read every news article, but for the ones I do more I might want more information.

 
Stop putting words in my mouth.

 

[Mutineer]

We had a crack at him a few years ago and he showed no interest. Why would he come home now when they've just won a flag and they'll go deep in September the next 2-4 years?
I'd prefer to go all in at the end of 2026 when he's a FA. He'll be 27 and maybe content with 2 flags by then. That gives us 2 seasons to look like a half decent team he's willing to play for.

And Darwin is actually home for Bailey, just boarded at PAC for a couple of years and played for Norwood during that time..

 

[PeterSalt]

Brisbane took nine years to develop their current list in their most recent rebuild. Melbourne spent 15 years rebuilding.

Carlton had two good years in 20, with two rebuilds.

North Melbourne are eight or nine years in, with no end in sight.

Gold Coast have been rebuilding their whole time in the league - hell, you could argue it's not a rebuild if nothing was ever built.

Richmond? Well, you could make the case they spent nearly 35 years rebuilding, with three good years in that time.

Essendon? Let's not be cruel.

Rebuilds are very hard. They look and feel exactly like this does.

Richmond about 10 years if you consider Cochin (P2 - 2007), Martin (P3 -2009), Rance (PP - P18 - 2007) and Reiwolt (P13 - 2006) as the key players or the players they built the team around

Hawthorn was similar if you consider Hodge (P1 - 2001), Franklin (P5 - 2004), Roughead (P2 - 2004), Mitchell (P36 - 2001) as their key players

Even Hawthorn thought winning in 2008 was an anomaly, and thought they'd need a least a couple more years to genuinely compete

 

[Mostyn]

And Sydney who were at the bottom with us 4 years ago. And Geelong who have never had a rebuild and just resigned a bunch of over 30’s.

The need for rebuilds and how long they take always seems a bit of an excuse of new coaches to avoid pressure and scrutiny for a few years.

Sydney and Geelong haven't done rebuilds.

Sydney had a bad 18 months, which isn't the same thing. Sydney has only had three seasons in the last twenty-one of less than 12 wins.

Geelong obviously never rebuild, I don't even need to make that case.

They are what happens when you leverage an advantage that helped you build a solid squad and always top up, never rebuild.

 

[Mostyn]

Five years for a rebuild to go from the first appearance in the bottom four to making finals is about right, and eight to 10 years to win a flag is also about right, for a successful rebuild. Anything beyond that you're usually looking at clubs undergoing multiple rebuilds.

Brisbane made the bottom four in 2010 and took nine years to return to finals, and 14 years to win a flag. But their first rebuild failed and required another go around 2015. They spent 3-4 years out of the finals after that point, and nine years to winning a flag.

But this has always been the case. I remember back around 2020/2021, some posters on here were absolutely deluded into thinking a rebuild didn't take that long. I looked up how long it takes and found stuff like this:



Melbourne took 24 years, Brisbane took 7 years after winning a spoon and that's one of the shortest in the AFL era. If we win a flag before 2030 we will have performed better than average, and that's because when you win a spoon you are absolute shit and it usually takes a long time to reverse that stench

These are from 2021:









Some people were setting themselves up for disappointment if they believed it would take less time than that.

Having said that, our issue right now is that we should be closer to finals than we are. If we're supposed to make finals in 2025 to have a successful rebuild, we shouldn't be finishing in the bottom 4 and stagnating in terms of wins.

The thing is, I COMPLETELY agree with you.

People were misguided about how difficult a rebuild would be.

And we should be competing for finals next year, or we need to refresh the entire coaching and recruiting team.

This year was disappointing but not impossible to predict. We need to take aggressive action this off season, otherwise more fundamental change would need to happen.

 

[Mostyn]

Richmond about 10 years if you consider Cochin (P2 - 2007), Martin (P3 -2009), Rance (PP - P18 - 2007) and Reiwolt (P13 - 2006) as the key players or the players they built the team around

Hawthorn was similar if you consider Hodge (P1 - 2001), Franklin (P5 - 2004), Roughead (P2 - 2004), Mitchell (P36 - 2001) as their key players

Even Hawthorn thought winning in 2008 was an anomaly, and thought they'd need a least a couple more years to genuinely compete

Richmond was kind of a joke - they were pretty terrible from 1981 to 2015, but that's certainly not one rebuild ...

 

[FR0GGY]

Who said it was a 5 year rebuild? Rebuilds almost always take longer than that.

As I pointed out before... we kept a core of older players when we did the big cleanout. Those veterans are now reaching the end of their playing careers, and their performances are dropping off. We're now at the transition point where performances will start to be driven by the younger players, as the veterans are progressively removed from the team. Whether or not our youngsters are capable of making that step will ultimately determine the success or failure of the rebuild.

2020,2021,2022,2023,2024 that’s 5 years by my reckoning.

 

[Mostyn]

2020,2021,2022,2023,2024 that’s 5 years by my reckoning.

Yeah that's fair - I guess the question is who thought 5 years would be enough?

 

[FR0GGY]

Yeah that's fair - I guess the question is who thought 5 years would be enough?

The main issue I believe from those seen as “negative” is the club have talked about it being done and looking to trade in, not continue to hit the draft.
Nicks coaching for long periods has looked to be coaching for immediate wins not looking at the long term.
I think the average punter can put up with low results if they can see improvement, right now that’s hard to see.

 

[rocket18]

The main issue this year wasn’t our results, it was the bizzare, conservative, short-sighted decisions regarding selection and player development that was headed by our coaching and development staff.

So pretty much the same bizarre, conservative, short-sighted decisions regarding selection and player development that Nicks has done in his first four years.

You'd think he would learn, that's the trouble with arrogant morons - they can't see when they are wrong.

 

[GreyCrow]

Yeah that's fair - I guess the question is who thought 5 years would be enough?

I do and the club did

Now that doesnt mean you win the flag in your 5th year but you better be in the top 6 and have a year where 10th was your lowest position

The issue I take is that with some clever coaching and better recognition of talent v decline we make the 8 and even top 6 easy

And ironically you would be the first to chirp '' see the club was right the rebuild is over''

 

[Ticktak]

Can anyone tell me why we wouldn’t be into Matt Owies??

 

[GreyCrow]

Nicks coaching for long periods has looked to be coaching for immediate wins not looking at the long term.

His management was maintenance not development

As you said his long term plan was 7 days at a time - good for Nicks but terrible for the club. And this is where Kelly should have stepped in

Reading that post by Drugs Are Bad Mackay? was depressing because its true - we have stuffed up the next 5 years if we retain Nicks