Autopsy AFL 2023 Round 23 - Saints v Cats Sat Aug 19th 7:25pm EST (Marvel)

[My Tilly]

The thing about the Saints is they don't get belted but they dont annihilate teams.

Adelaide got a hold of them with 14 goals off turnover, which was their only genuinely awful performance this year. They have been bad in patches but they just sort of hang around in games.

Extremely difficult side to read, I am sure even St Kilda supporters dont know what they are going to get half the time.

Their fixture has glorified their ladder position.
Double up matches against North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Gold Coast has helped. Hawthorn actually beat them in one of those matches too but that's essentially 8-12 points without even having to get out of first gear.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

St Kilda are such an odd side, they looked really good in the 1st half against Carlton, destroyed Hawthorn in Q1 and were pretty clinical against Richmond.

They also flubbed games against North and West Coast.

I think they are coming into form at the right time and will beat Geelong by 25 points.

They really are an anomaly.
Their best will beat anyone and their worst will lose to anyone. More so than any other team and it's been that way for years. The weirdest thing is that it's not just from week to week. The switch can flip from quarter to quarter.
They can look amazing, then lose, or look terrible, then win. You don't have to score much to beat them, but they can be very hard to score against.
The biggest Jekyll and Hyde side of the last 5+ years (probably more like 10+).

Another interesting neutral game that will shape the 8 (lower half) in the next 2 weeks.
A real 50/50. Saints should win, but I feel Cats might. If Cats lose, finals are done. Technically, Saints could still play finals with a loss here, but you feel if they do lose this one, they won't make finals.

Cats by 18, with little confidence.

 

[#gosaintas]

They're a really sh*t team and do not deserve to make finals. Both clubs shouldn't be there come September as Adelaide would put up a better showing with the form Tex is in right now.

If Geelong play as they did on the weekend, it will be enough.
Unfortunately, they may have given everything and as a consequence, teams often come out flat the following week.

Saints have been in the 8 since rd 1. We will beat Geelong and spend the entire season in the 8. That's deserving to play finals.

 

[My Tilly]

Saints have been in the 8 since rd 1. We will beat Geelong and spend the entire season in the 8. That's deserving to play finals.

Maybe but you are still the weakest team currently in the eight and will be badly exposed if you do make it.

I reckon we win this one.
Need to smash into King early and as much as possible. Ratugolea with that 110kg frame needs to assert himself early. King's the main threat.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Maybe but you are still the weakest team currently in the eight and will be badly exposed if you do make it.

I reckon we win this one.
Need to smash into King early and as much as possible. Ratugolea with that 110kg frame needs to assert himself early. King's the main threat.

IF Rhys doesn't get up and surely Neale and Sav are rucking.

 

[#gosaintas]

Maybe but you are still the weakest team currently in the eight and will be badly exposed if you do make it.

I reckon we win this one.
Need to smash into King early and as much as possible. Ratugolea with that 110kg frame needs to assert himself early. King's the main threat.

We may be the worst team in the 8, but it's not as if we've just made a late lunge. 7th to 8th is our level and obviously we aren't going to do any damage to the top 4 but there's no way we haven't earned our spot when we beat Geelong on Sat.

 

[My Tilly]

We may be the worst team in the 8, but it's not as if we've just made a late lunge. 7th to 8th is our level and obviously we aren't going to do any damage to the top 4 but there's no way we haven't earned our spot when we beat Geelong on Sat.

Find out Saturday night won't we.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

No idea why saints are so sure they're going to win. Isn't this your 150th year? You'd think you'd have 1000 VFL/AFL wins by now.

 

[Mat Mann]

Their fixture has glorified their ladder position.
Double up matches against North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Gold Coast has helped. Hawthorn actually beat them in one of those matches too but that's essentially 8-12 points without even having to get out of first gear.

kind of evens out the previous fixtures where we have received the hardest-rated fixture 2 years in a row.
and if using that logic I wouldn't say your fixture has been magnitudes harder than ours.
Cats play Pies Port Dogs and Sydney out of the top 8 contenders
Saints played Blues Brisbane and Richmond

matter of stats has an interesting post on fixture ratings

as for those saying we don't deserve to make the 8, we've been top 8 all year, how is that undeserving? Will we make the GF? no but no team outside of Carlton's outside chance I don't believe will make it either!

 

[MickG88]

Salty that we beat you? What does living under the past mean?

Salty that we beat your full strength team earlier in the year and it has taken your loser club to drop all those over paid seagulls to play decent football

 

[HarryBeef]

Salty that we beat your full strength team earlier in the year and it has taken your loser club to drop all those over paid seagulls to play decent football

Nice reality you've got there, like what you've done with the place. I assume you're living over the future.

 

[MickG88]

Nice reality you've got there, like what you've done with the place. I assume you're living over the future.

Carlton fans love to go on and on about how they're winning without 8 of their best 22 but didn't they start winning without all those overpaid seagulls you guys are calling beat 22?

 

[HarryBeef]

Carlton fans love to go on and on about how they're winning without 8 of their best 22 but didn't they start winning without all those overpaid seagulls you guys are calling beat 22?

No that's not true at all, the game we smashed Port was pretty close to our best 22, minus Kennedy and Williams.

But this thread is about Saints vs Cats and all I posted was 'Cats by 38', which seems like a reasonable prediction, you clearly have some scars to be triggered like this.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Carlton fans love to go on and on about how they're winning without 8 of their best 22 but didn't they start winning without all those overpaid seagulls you guys are calling beat 22?

3 of them would be ur best player

 

[Mr Meow]

They're a really sh*t team and do not deserve to make finals. Both clubs shouldn't be there come September as Adelaide would put up a better showing with the form Tex is in right now.

If Geelong play as they did on the weekend, it will be enough.
Unfortunately, they may have given everything and as a consequence, teams often come out flat the following week.

Geelong would go into a final against Adelaide as favourites unless it was played over there.

 

[Catsnlakers]

With Hawkins set to come back in I see the Saints key defensive stocks getting tested without Howard, at times we will have all of Neale, Hawkins, Cameron & Henry forward, each of them potent aerially. I think this will prove decisive in the end. Cats by 12 points.

 

[Mr Meow]

kind of evens out the previous fixtures where we have received the hardest-rated fixture 2 years in a row.
and if using that logic I wouldn't say your fixture has been magnitudes harder than ours.
Cats play Pies Port Dogs and Sydney out of the top 8 contenders
Saints played Blues Brisbane and Richmond

matter of stats has an interesting post on fixture ratings

as for those saying we don't deserve to make the 8, we've been top 8 all year, how is that undeserving? Will we make the GF? no but no team outside of Carlton's outside chance I don't believe will make it either!

Essendon are better than Richmond so remove Richmond from your St Kilda list and add Essendon to Geelong's. GWS can be added for St Kilda.

Two MCG games against Collingwood and two games against Port is still probably the toughest combo you could get this year. St Kilda only played Port at home and then Collingwood on a neutral ground.

Anyway, the winner of this weekend's game deserves to survive. At this stage of the season there's no excuses.

 

[Veer Right]

With Hawkins set to come back in I see the Saints key defensive stocks getting tested without Howard, at times we will have all of Neale, Hawkins, Cameron & Henry forward, each of them potent aerially. I think this will prove decisive in the end. Cats by 12 points.

We have a promising comedian in the house!

 

[Mat Mann]

Essendon are better than Richmond so remove Richmond from your St Kilda list and add Essendon to Geelong's. GWS can be added for St Kilda.

Two MCG games against Collingwood and two games against Port is still probably the toughest combo you could get this year. St Kilda only played Port at home and then Collingwood on a neutral ground.

Anyway, the winner of this weekend's game deserves to survive. At this stage of the season there's no excuses.

won't argue the point too much, but like most of the season, it seems to depend on when you played those sides. Geelong are reigning premiers and Saints were expected to be a bottom side according to most.
although I do find it odd ppl saying the Saints dont deserve to make finals despite never falling out of the 8 all season so far.

but as you said, I think the winner will make the finals and the loser won't

 

[beside the seaside]

They're a really sh*t team and do not deserve to make finals. Both clubs shouldn't be there come September as Adelaide would put up a better showing with the form Tex is in right now.

If Geelong play as they did on the weekend, it will be enough.
Unfortunately, they may have given everything and as a consequence, teams often come out flat the following week.

I guess we'll see on Saturday. I notice you say this every week and yet here we are still in the eight.

 

[Mr Meow]

I guess we'll see on Saturday. I notice you say this every week and yet here we are still in the eight.

The issue is that we tend to lose to poor sides away from home.

St Kilda similarly aren't too great away from their home, The Dome, this season - right? So the venue is important.

 

[beside the seaside]

The issue is that we tend to lose to poor sides away from home.

St Kilda similarly aren't too great away from their home, The Dome, this season - right? So the venue is important.

If we win this week we will be locked into finals a week out. I think it's fairly unfair to call us a "really shit team". But hey they're not the only one most of the media have been saying the same for the second half of the season.

 

[Mr Meow]

If we win this week we will be locked into finals a week out. I think it's fairly unfair to call us a "really s**t team". But hey they're not the only one most of the media have been saying the same for the second half of the season.

Hey I didn't call the Saints that. At their best they've been really competitive but they've had a sprinkling of poor stuff in between - a bit like Geelong.

In my honest opinion despite the ladder position I'd say St Kilda are around the 9th/10th best side this season. If they win one of their last two it's time to revise that opinion.

 

[davos44]

Their fixture has glorified their ladder position.
Double up matches against North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Gold Coast has helped. Hawthorn actually beat them in one of those matches too but that's essentially 8-12 points without even having to get out of first gear.

I think Essendon are the only team near the 8 to play West Coast + North twice this year?
Geelong and every other side also played those two sides once, Geelong got both at GMHBA so there is also 8 points. It's not some mega advantage which shoots you up the ladder unfairly.

St Kilda probably just lost about 8% or so by not burying them in any of their games (so any advantage of those wins was squandered) but they did win them and that's what matters. Hawthorn beat Collingwood and the Bulldogs while Gold Coast aren't perennial easy beats either as you saw earlier this year.

 

[Mr Meow]

I think Essendon are the only team near the 8 to play West Coast + North twice this year?
Geelong and every other side also played those two sides once, Geelong got both at GMHBA so there is also 8 points. It's not some mega advantage which shoots you up the ladder unfairly.

St Kilda probably just lost about 8% or so by not burying them in any of their games (so any advantage of those wins was squandered) but they did win them and that's what matters. Hawthorn beat Collingwood and the Bulldogs while Gold Coast aren't perennial easy beats either as you saw earlier this year.

Geelong played WCE in Adelaide but they are so bad that you would prefer them to be one of your interstate games - likewise NM as far as "away" games.

Ideally you wanted to get the sides in 5th-14th at home and not too many against the top 4 (Geelong had 4 away and 2 at home; St Kilda 2 home, 1 neutral, 1 away) - especially away. I think St Kilda did pretty well on that front (swap Collingwood and Port away for Gold Coast at home and NM neutral for example and it flips the script on both teams) but that's just the way the fixturing works.