Preview Changes and Preview Brisbane vs Ports @ Gabba, qualifying final thread

[JimmyBC]

Okay I didn’t bother watching that game

I remember at one point he just fell over trailing some bloke on a lead, nothing seemingly caused it just fell over.. cooked.

 

[Powerade 08]

Yuck

Fantasia was BOG 2 weeks ago and they promoted Evans ahead of him. I can't see them changing their mind now. Plus Evans has a lot of experience starting as sub.

If we have a shocker vs Brisbane we might see Fantasia and Dixon as a hail mary selection the week after.

 

[Visenfest]

If we’re worried about Fantasia getting injured, have McEntee or Evans as sub to take over if the calf falls off. At best, Fantasia is a bloody decent wildcard to have in finals.

 

[Poo Eckert]

If we’re worried about Fantasia getting injured, have McEntee or Evans as sub to take over if the calf falls off. At best, Fantasia is a bloody decent wildcard to have in finals.

Based on what? 21 QF, what about his 21 prelim?

Cause in two years he’s kicked 11 goals? Maybe the coaches think he’s pus, maybe he hasn’t followed their or fitness staff instructions and said stuff you

 

[Minotaur2]

So we're bringing in all of; Lycett—after a month off recovering from surgery; McKenzie—after a month off from a knee injury; Marshall—after two weeks off due to hip? injury; and now also Fantasia—who was last seen in an AFL game in our RD 3 loss to the Crows, where he had a 5 possession, 1 goal game with 29% TOG coming off the bench as the sub.

That's way too many changes to bring in underdone players.


Marshall is an easy in. I get that. Lock that away.
McKenzie is a mild risk but offers much more than Jonas in the same role. Ok, let's lock this one in as well.
Lycett is a risk and only a marginal upgrade to Hayes, even given Sam's last game. Not a lock but leans towards Lycett being an in.

But then we have Orazio.
He is a huge risk given his injury and fitness issues over the last two years. We've got Evans currently in the same role who has kicked 7 goals in his last two games, and Rioli who is starting to look like he'll provide some x-factor with his finals experience.

Hope he proves me wrong, if we do go back to this well.
I just can't see it though.

This is a good post.

HOwever, I'm not sure that Evans is competing with Fantasia. The selectors seem to treat Evans as a "tall" even if he is small because that is how he seems to play. They seem to think in terms of having four goal scorers (who play like talls) and two (+one on bench) pressure/crumbing type forwards whose main metric is to create the conditions to encourage goal scoring rather than actually scoring goals. If Fantasia comes in, it might be a choice between Evans and Lord with Lord making way for Evans and then Evans making way for Dixon.

I'm surprised there is not more discussion of Lord. He has not really done a lot in the last few weeks.

 

[AflNerd22]

why is everbody saying boak to sub. Jones has been way worse than him.

 

[Minotaur2]

Fantasia Is a risk, remember burton In the 2020 prelim. It was a gamble that didn’t pay off

Maybe as a sub but I don’t think he is versatile enough for that role. He really can only play small forward and that’s it.

It would take a few injuries to see us roll the dice on him. Frankie is in front and he will probably miss out too.

I might be the only on here that is actually for keeping McEntee in the team, he has pretty much played all season as a role player and they obviously rate him.

I don’t think he has done a huge amount wrong either.

I think we’ve got enough to deal with trying to manage our returning injured talls so I don’t think we need to mess around with our smalls too.

Potentially it comes down to Evans v McEntee but I’m sticking with McEntee.


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I'm not sure that the view of a sub as someone who needs to be versatile to possibly replace a number of different positions is really the best use of the sub role. I know that is how the role is mostly used, but I don't agree with that use. I think there are four guys on the bench and one of them should be the utility versatile type and the sub role should be for an impact player who can be a game changer when the starting players are starting to tire and the game has slowed a bit, a high-skill, high speed burst type player. Small forwards or aging midfielders that can't impact a whole game but still offer a lot seem perfect for the sub role. I would be going Evans/Fantasia/Boak as the sub.

Sub as game-changer rather than wanting to keep the game the same in case of injury

 

[TazD]

why is everbody saying boak to sub. Jones has been way worse than him.

Boak shouldn't be sub. He should be dropped.

 

[Visenfest]

Based on what? 21 QF, what about his 21 prelim?

Cause in two years he’s kicked 11 goals? Maybe the coaches think he’s pus, maybe he hasn’t followed their or fitness staff instructions and said stuff you

11 goals in how many games though? Hasn’t played much. At his best, he’s explosive and adds 3 or 4 goals. McEntee adds about 6 chases and 3 or 4 arm brushes.

 

[pstew2dstew]

It's been a looooong week,

The excitement and nerves starting to kick in now...

Biggest game for us on the path to the gf

Let's gooooo Ports

 

[Interstater]

A tale of 2 Yowies.

..
..
..

I was given 2 AFL Yowies for Fathers Day,

the first ....

Do I dare crack the second, now that the first has revealed the winner of the 2023 premiership?

 

[Willsy10]

This is a good post.

HOwever, I'm not sure that Evans is competing with Fantasia. The selectors seem to treat Evans as a "tall" even if he is small because that is how he seems to play. They seem to think in terms of having four goal scorers (who play like talls) and two (+one on bench) pressure/crumbing type forwards whose main metric is to create the conditions to encourage goal scoring rather than actually scoring goals. If Fantasia comes in, it might be a choice between Evans and Lord with Lord making way for Evans and then Evans making way for Dixon.

I'm surprised there is not more discussion of Lord. He has not really done a lot in the last few weeks.

I'm with with on this, but i think he is just there keeping the seat warm for Dixon and team balance. He hasn't done much though, he pops up every now and then and shows glimpses that we've got ourselves a decent future KPF but he really isn't quite there yet.

 

[Andre]

So we're bringing in all of; Lycett—after a month off recovering from surgery; McKenzie—after a month off from a knee injury; Marshall—after two weeks off due to hip? injury; and now also Fantasia—who was last seen in an AFL game in our RD 3 loss to the Crows, where he had a 5 possession, 1 goal game with 29% TOG coming off the bench as the sub.

That's way too many changes to bring in underdone players.


Marshall is an easy in. I get that. Lock that away.
McKenzie is a mild risk but offers much more than Jonas in the same role. Ok, let's lock this one in as well.
Lycett is a risk and only a marginal upgrade to Hayes, even given Sam's last game. Not a lock but leans towards Lycett being an in.

But then we have Orazio.
He is a huge risk given his injury and fitness issues over the last two years. We've got Evans currently in the same role who has kicked 7 goals in his last two games, and Rioli who is starting to look like he'll provide some x-factor with his finals experience.

Hope he proves me wrong, if we do go back to this well.
I just can't see it though.

Four is a big risk. I'd go Marshall, McKenzie, Orazio as the in's. Leave Lycett out, we know how he goes in finals, even when fully fit. Of course we know from experience, that Ken is going to play Lycett, no matter how he pulls up, unless he literally has his leg drop off.

McKenzie is a 50/50, I can easily see Ken giving him another week, so Jonas stays in (and gets run around).

Orazio he's not going to pick. Or if he does it's doing something like leaving Marshall out another week and dropping Lord instead of McEntee. A smaller forward line with non-goal kickers and Ken in the box for the game wouldn't surprise me at all. I'm fully expecting it'll go back to the players/setups that have failed when it counted most, so many times before, as Ken never learns.

 

[bomberclifford]

11 goals in how many games though? Hasn’t played much. At his best, he’s explosive and adds 3 or 4 goals. McEntee adds about 6 chases and 3 or 4 arm brushes.

The sum total of Orazio's AFL output over the past two years:

Rd 3 2023 vs Adelaide 1g 0b 5d 29% tog (sub: activated)
Rd 2 2023 vs Collingwood 1g 2b 9d 69% tog
Rd 1 2023 vs Brisbane 0g 3b 9d 58% tog
Rd 9 2022 vs North Melbourne (sub: not activated)
PF 2021 vs Bulldogs 0g 1b 6d 76% tog
QF 2021 vs Geelong 4g 1b 9d 65% tog

4g per game is the statistical outlier, not the norm.

 

[Interstater]

A tale of 2 Yowies.

..
..
..

I was given 2 AFL Yowies for Fathers Day,

the first ....

Do I dare crack the second, now that the first has revealed the winner of the 2023 premiership?

Get on it fellahs... the Yowies have spoken.

 

[Poo Eckert]

The sum total of Orazio's AFL output over the past two years:

Rd 3 2023 vs Adelaide 1g 0b 5d 29% tog (sub: activated)
Rd 2 2023 vs Collingwood 1g 2b 9d 69% tog
Rd 1 2023 vs Brisbane 0g 3b 9d 58% tog
Rd 9 2022 vs North Melbourne (sub: not activated)
PF 2021 vs Bulldogs 0g 1b 6d 76% tog
QF 2021 vs Geelong 4g 1b 9d 65% tog

4g per game is the statistical outlier, not the norm.

Can we just trade him back to the Bummers? Save the 500k and false dreams! He can join Kingston Heath there and be happy

 

[RossFC]

Cody Szust might actually be better than McEntee and he's an SANFL player being paid $350 a game.

 

[Interstater]

Cody Szust might actually be better than McEntee and he's an SANFL player being paid $350 a game.

I'd play Nick Moore in a heartbeat.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

So we're bringing in all of; Lycett—after a month off recovering from surgery; McKenzie—after a month off from a knee injury; Marshall—after two weeks off due to hip? injury; and now also Fantasia—who was last seen in an AFL game in our RD 3 loss to the Crows, where he had a 5 possession, 1 goal game with 29% TOG coming off the bench as the sub.

That's way too many changes to bring in underdone players.


Marshall is an easy in. I get that. Lock that away.
McKenzie is a mild risk but offers much more than Jonas in the same role. Ok, let's lock this one in as well.
Lycett is a risk and only a marginal upgrade to Hayes, even given Sam's last game. Not a lock but leans towards Lycett being an in.

But then we have Orazio.
He is a huge risk given his injury and fitness issues over the last two years. We've got Evans currently in the same role who has kicked 7 goals in his last two games, and Rioli who is starting to look like he'll provide some x-factor with his finals experience.

Hope he proves me wrong, if we do go back to this well.
I just can't see it though.

The flipside to this is that we have lost multiple big finals due to our inability to convert i50s into goals.

Repeating this same problem is probably the biggest risk.

A fit Raz is one of the best at converting our rubbish i50s into goals.

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[Enviable Tradition]

IN
Lycett, Fantasia, McKenzie, Marshall

OUT
Hayes, McEntee, Jonas, Evans

Williams into the 22, Boak to sub.

This.

And I'd like to see Rioli get Boaks CBAs (which is not that many).

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[Enviable Tradition]

Here's the best case to play Fantasia that I've seen.

Brisbane

STRENGTHS: The Lions have a set of strengths that line up nicely with recent premiers, ranking No.1 for average points scored from turnover (55.6) and second for points conceded from turnover (41.2). The last three premiers have been No.1 for points from turnover differential, with the Lions leading the AFL this season (+14.4). Chris Fagan's men own the territory game as well, ranking No.3 for time in forward half differential and No.1 for inside 50 differential (+8.8). They lock the ball in their half and rank No.2 for points from forward half stoppages and points from forward half intercepts. It adds up to a potent offensive game, with the Lions ranking No.2 for points for (94.8) and converting inside 50s to scores (46 per cent).

WEAKNESS: Groundball in defence is Brisbane's weakness and they are the only team in the competition to not win more groundballs in their backline than the opposition.

Port Adelaide

STRENGTHS: Led by their young stars in the midfield, the Power are the No.1 team in the AFL for points from centre bounce differential. Like the Lions, they get the ball forward and are able to lock it in their attacking half, also ranking No.1 for time in forward half differential. Ken Hinkley's team has had 22.3 stoppages and won 32.8 intercepts in its forward half (No.1) and scored 55 points a game from forward half chains (No.1). Overall offensively, the Power have scored 93.4 points per game this year (No.3), hitting the scoreboard from 45.5 per cent of their inside 50s (No.5).

WEAKNESS: Goal conversion is Port's weakness, recording a shot at goal accuracy of just 46.1 per cent this season (No.15), while their shot at goal kick rating of -2.1 per cent ranks No.14.

So Brisbane's weakness is the ball being on the ground because they love playing a three tall backline. I'd put Fantasia in the side ahead of Lord and have him line up at deep forward in the old Robbie Gray

9

Robbie Gray

Age

36

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.4

5star

D

13.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

4star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

spot and tell him he's not to leave the forward 50 under any circumstances, then instruct our mids to move the ball quick and kick to grass in the forward 50.

I was with you right up until drop Lord.

In a big pressure final you need an aerial outlet for the pressured dump kick. Someone needs to bring the ball to ground for Fantasia and Rioli to do their work.

Playing the latter 2 without the former is useless, especially in the pressure of finals.

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[Doctor Feel]

It's been a looooong week,

The excitement and nerves starting to kick in now...

Biggest game for us on the path to the gf

Let's gooooo Ports

FEEL THE EEEEEELECTRICITY

 

[PowerBaz]

The sum total of Orazio's AFL output over the past two years:

Rd 3 2023 vs Adelaide 1g 0b 5d 29% tog (sub: activated)
Rd 2 2023 vs Collingwood 1g 2b 9d 69% tog
Rd 1 2023 vs Brisbane 0g 3b 9d 58% tog
Rd 9 2022 vs North Melbourne (sub: not activated)
PF 2021 vs Bulldogs 0g 1b 6d 76% tog
QF 2021 vs Geelong 4g 1b 9d 65% tog

4g per game is the statistical outlier, not the norm.

Mac and Cheese and Evans comparison.

So Jed is good for 1 goal in quite a few games more so earlier in the year. Evans when he does get a goal he kicks multiples.

He kicked a couple in the last quater when he came on in the pre season game against Freo from memory in the space of 10-15 mins.

 

[PowerBaz]

FEEL THE EEEEEELECTRICITY

 

[johnnysix]

This is a good post.

HOwever, I'm not sure that Evans is competing with Fantasia. The selectors seem to treat Evans as a "tall" even if he is small because that is how he seems to play. They seem to think in terms of having four goal scorers (who play like talls) and two (+one on bench) pressure/crumbing type forwards whose main metric is to create the conditions to encourage goal scoring rather than actually scoring goals. If Fantasia comes in, it might be a choice between Evans and Lord with Lord making way for Evans and then Evans making way for Dixon.

I'm surprised there is not more discussion of Lord. He has not really done a lot in the last few weeks.

This is exactly how they view the forward structure. People here seem to want to judge McEntee on his marks and goals but those are bonuses to what he's actually there for. He's there to facilitate our pressure forward game. We've played our best footy when we lock it in our forward half. He's simply not being judged on the same criteria as blokes like Marshall and Riolli. Marshall should be under more pressure than McEntee as he hasn't really been performing his role to expected levels since Dixon came back.