Preview Changes & Preview for Semi Final 2 vs Hawthorn @AO

[RussellEbertHandball]

My mate D_One sent me a spreadsheet yesterday, with his AFL Tables database dump of every club's first 11 rounds vs their 2nd half 11 rounds since 1970 when 22 minor round games were introduced.

He left out 1993 as only 20 games were played that season.

Can sort by many criteria, games won, premiership points, percentage etc, but most interesting is the differentials between first half and second half of the season.

Sorting by biggest increase in percentage, as percentage is a good measure of how dominate or weak a side is, this is the top 10, and the Hawks in 2024 have had the biggest turnaround using that criteria since 22 rounds were introduced in 1970.


Just another reason to see why the Hawks will beat us, and we need a miracle to win. Unfortunately I'm not a Scott Morrison, I've always believed in miracles type of bloke.

 

[RossFC]

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

View attachment 2107715

Good on yah Staff. I don't why he stopped posting here.

 

[Coobk001]

Poor form? We had won 8 out of 9. No one thought we had poor form last week.

As mentioned in another post too 21/23 that dismantled the top team by 112 points played in the QF.

Esava hasn't touched the scoreboard in weeks, Dixon missed a week but had been poor. Marshall injured, but such poor form prior they're afraid to bring him in. Finlayson injured. Lord out of form. McEntee had been in shocking form in the AFL and SANFL and has continued that via recall but we've had to persist due to the options we have left. Mead has dropped away big time over several weeks. Then you chuck in losing Farrell and Houston in the last couple weeks. As well as having to move DBJ back and play Burton down back whose been on the nose for a while.

There's issues catching up with us everywhere. Yes we scraped through those last few wins, but we have issues appearing everywhere. Turning them around, finding a way through for wins in the next 3 games would be an absolutely insane result, I don't believe it is even a 0.000001% chance. It's just a flat zero IMO.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

 

[ClintEastwood]

Man, he's grown up a lot in the past couple of years. You can just see it in the way he handles himself.

 

[tribey]

Not sure what position Mead is supposed to be playing for us, but we can do without it.

Looks to be developing into a Gryan Miers-style small half-forward who actually raises the eyes and looks for productive options inside50.

Another washed away in yet another September deluge on the night, no doubt with scarring that will pay rich dividends in finals series to come.

 

[Coobk001]

My mate D_One sent me a spreadsheet yesterday, with his AFL Tables database dump of every club's first 11 rounds vs their 2nd half 11 rounds since 1970 when 22 minor round games were introduced.

He left out 1993 as only 20 games were played that season.

Can sort by many criteria, games won, premiership points, percentage etc, but most interesting is the differentials between first half and second half of the season.

Sorting by biggest increase in percentage, as percentage is a good measure of how dominate or weak a side is, this is the top 10, and the Hawks in 2024 have had the biggest turnaround using that criteria since 22 rounds were introduced in 1970.


Just another reason to see why the Hawks will beat us, and we need a miracle to win. Unfortunately I'm not a Scott Morrison, I've always believed in miracles type of bloke.


View attachment 2107705

I just find it amazing that single DBJ flukey soccer took Hawthorn from 2nd to 7th and Port from 3rd to 2nd.

For me that says a heap about how good they are. They absolutely deserve to be thought of better than their position. I honestly think they'll beat us comfortably.

 

[TeeKray]

I just find it amazing that single DBJ flukey soccer took Hawthorn from 2nd to 7th and Port from 3rd to 2nd.

For me that says a heap about how good they are. They absolutely deserve to be thought of better than their position. I honestly think they'll beat us comfortably.

This is true.

It's also true that 7 of Hawthorn's 14 wins (ie 50%) came against the bottom 4 teams.

They're a good team but hardly invincible. We will however make them look invincible on Friday night.

 

[Coobk001]

Mead is useless

I would love to see his AFL Player Ranking figures for the last month.

He's averaged 11.5 touches in the last 4 games.

In the previous 12 he was averaging 17.9.

 

[offtherails9]

He sneaked around a toilet, took pics of McStay, in the toilet, totally unknown to Mcstay, put em up on social media, then had to take them down. That was the last straw as a Collingwood player, and the Dawks are welcome to him.

This isn't true and Ginni is friends with all of the Pies boys, a few even were questioning if they wanted to stay after the way he was treated on the way out

The way to defeat the Dawks, is to do the exact opposite what the doggies did. Bevo, made the dogs players totally unaccountable, to Hawks players. Hawks players literally ran free, No manning up, no close checking, no minding the men, Sicily was allowed to ponce around, free, Hawk players ran an carry free, no pressure, no tackling, nothing. Dont do what the dogs did, make Hawk players feel the heat, constant pressure, and you can win.

Sicily was supposed to be tagged by Harmes but he couldn't do it well enough.

 

[FishingRick04]

why go tall when hawthorns backline will just all spread and rebound off the backline leaving our big imobile key forwards in the dust. this is exaclty what mitchell wants.

This wont work unless the key forwards start clunking some makrs and kicking some goals.

in the last 3 games our key forwards have kicked a whopping total of 3 goals.

Our season has been successful on Finny, Mitch, Marshall and Dixon playing.

Dixon rucking instead of Finny I’d suggest.

 

[Coobk001]

This is true.

It's also true that 7 of Hawthorn's 14 wins (ie 50%) came against the bottom 4 teams.

They're a good team but hardly invincible. We will however make them look invincible on Friday night.

As REH points out though, not many sides, regardless of the draw, come from 0-5 back to finishing top 2. Their back season form, and the way they've done it with big margins regularly has been impossible to ignore.

 

[#Port Patriot#]

If we go that tall it will be very interesting to see who Sicily goes to.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Sicily won't go to either tall. He'll try and be a loose intercept defender and hawks will rely on Seromg, Scrimshaw, perhaps Ethan if brought in as well, to take ports tall forwards out of contest for him to swoop in. Like always. That's where port needs to be smart for once and who ever IS on Sicily, or get someone on him and go with him instead. That, and if he's going up for intercept then compete and spoil if need be. Honestly, that's why I believe Jones would be better up forward playing on Sicily and not so much McEntee. Just tell Jones with his 2 brain cells, "Sicily... hunt.." and show a picture of him.

 

[#Port Patriot#]

As REH points out though, not many sides, regardless of the draw, come from 0-5 back to finishing top 2. Their back season form, and the way they've done it with big margins regularly has been impossible to ignore.

Whilst true. Can't ignore the fact they've had an easy fixture run home as well.

Perspective -> port start 0-5 2022 bad start injuries etc... came back and should of made top 8 but their run home wasn't exactly easy in comparison. If they had the luck of having the bottom 4 teams as much as hawks did then they would of been top 8 in 2022 at the end.

Food for thought. Mind you, hawks have looked good for a few years now but we're still growing & getting used to it. It's started clicking this season so props to them. I had them top 8 before season started because it was obvious as heck that last season they had the potential to hit it.

 

[sobrave]

Maybe we might actually try and stretch their tiny defence with our talls and exploit something for a change...

Who am I kidding, as if we would ever try something like that. We will continue to hack the ball forward sky high to Dixon.

M8 the dogs went in with 208cm Darcy, 197cm jamarra and 196 Naughton last week.. it didn't work

 

[sobrave]

Chux Dixon cannot play. It's like being a man down on field at all times. Hawthorn put a fast athletic bloke on him

 

[Addy23]

Dude wtf have you been watching? His pace is very much below average for an AFL player.

That then says a lot about how slow Narkle and FEvans are and that's my point, out of those 3 he's the only one that can play a tag role. We don't have anyone else! Our depth at small forward sucks

 

[PortVic]

Chux Dixon cannot play. It's like being a man down on field at all times. Hawthorn put a fast athletic bloke on him

Weddle will give him whiplash.

 

[b0ydman Jr]

Forgetting the 'warranted' or not thoughts. Do you think with the way we're going up forward, the losses down back and monkey on our back that we are a good chance?

Sportsbet have Hawks at $1.61 and Port at $2.33, I'd say those odds are generous to us.

I'd probably rank the top 6 personally as:
1. Brisbane
2. Sydney
3. Hawthorn (above GWS because of the benefits of being a Vic club)
4. GWS
5. Geelong
6. Port

Injuries, poor form and everything has just caught up with us. We probably needed to lose one of our last 3, to trigger a few selection changes ahead of finals so that we felt in a better spot. Right now though, no Finlayson, Lord having not played in a while, Marshall even longer, Soldo having been on the outer for a while, no Farrell, no Houston, no SPP, Rat not having played back for a while, DBJ being messed around, Lorenz not being given the opportunities he probably should've gotten earlier, same maybe with Sinn (but he's always injured), etc. There's just issues everywhere, then you consider McEntee looks like he'll get a game despite his absymal form and Mead is also way out of form now. It's a recipe for disaster. Especially when our best player is carrying ribs and unlikely to be anywhere near his best. In hindsight we have likely peaked too early and our injuries/suspensions are going to catch up with us here.

Personally, I'd swap Brisbane & geelong

 

[backtozero]

Chux Dixon cannot play. It's like being a man down on field at all times. Hawthorn put a fast athletic bloke on him

Everyone is fast and athletic in comparison to Charlie's current form.

 

[Jojay]

Fair to say Marshall confirmed

 

[sobrave]

Everyone is fast and athletic in comparison to Charlie's current form.

True, and hawthorn have pretty much directed their recruitment squarely at that fast, big, athletic type of player

Someone over 190 who isn't gonna stand still and wrestle chunk but will just jump over him and punch the ball away, then sprint off him at every opportunity while he lumbers around and falls over

 

[JimmyBC]

It doesn't matter if Charlie is due for his one good game every three months you'd have to be mad to pick a bloke on one leg against Hawthorn.. so he'll play

 

[Schulzenfest]

Looks to be developing into a Gryan Miers-style small half-forward who actually raises the eyes and looks for productive options inside50.

In the same way that Jed McEntee is a Cyril Rioli style forward, sure.