Preview Changes & Preview Thread for QF2, 2024 vs Geelong

[afl2004]

 

[PortAdelFC1997]

Sinn surely comes in now that Farrell is out for the year.

In two weeks, we lost our 2 most damaging weapons down back.

 

[afl2004]

Our 2 best kicks out of the finals , no one to bomb from 55 out when the opposition floods our forward line

Hinkley or no hinkley , that's the premiership done

 

[El_Scorcho]

View attachment 2093554

The forward line has been poor, especially the tall forwards. We had a spectacular win against Sydney, but the last 3 games have been battling wins against bottom 10 opposition where the key forwards have failed to fire.

Bombing the ball in high and long to bollard key forwards hasn't worked in our last several finals series and it won't work this time.

 

[240volt]

Our 2 best kicks out of the finals , no one to bomb from 55 out when the opposition floods our forward line

Hinkley or no hinkley , that's the premiership done

Wouldn’t get too despondent yet.
It’s definitely not good but others hopefully will stand up.

 

[ibd77]

It's fascinating how half this board is so anti-Marshall that they've jumped aboard the Ratugolea train surely on no other basis than him being someone, anyone, who isn't Marshall. He's terrible. His last three games he's averaging 7 disposals and he literally hasn't even kicked a behind, let alone a goal. His output isn't even an improvement on McEntee, let alone Todd.

There is exactly one reason you might fairly consider picking Ratugolea over Marshall, and it's the injury risk. Purely on football ability and output, if you genuinely believe Rat is a better forward than Marshall, you've absolutely gone off the deep end with your bias against him.

I think Marshall would work well in a team that prides it self on ball usage and the ability to hit up leading targets. Unfortunately for Marshall, our game plan favors forward half pressure, contested marking, spoiling and ground ball. Both of which he is useless at.

If he had a raking long kick, then he could play a high half forward role and score over flooding defenders but I don't think his leg is that strong.

 

[Shaucob_Burjan]

DBJ needs to go back to HB.

Not sure who replaces him at HF.

 

[El_Scorcho]

So this:

a) excludes the three games he didn't complete in which he kicked 0 goals from what still amount to a full game combined (highlight was 0 disposals against the SUNS in 1.5 quarters)

b) includes the outlier game against North in which he kicked 5 (a game where McEntee had 17 disposals and kicked 1.2 so clearly not indicative of a normal game)

c) ignores the 4 games prior to the North game in which he kicked 3 goals total

Let's face it, he's basically been putting up McEntee numbers for months but without the ability to provide contest and effort. Any faith in him to be a competent player in finals is blind faith based on what he's done in the distant past.

Even if this is all true, that's no reason to play a less competent player ahead of him.

Ratugolea would have to perform in a manner he's never actually demonstrated at any stage of his career as a key forward to play better than Marshall's out-of-form baseline.

Over the last 5 games for each player, including the 2 games where Marshall has played not much more than a quarter, Marshall has more score involvements. And we're talking about Ratugolea at his peak vs Marshall out of form and Ratugolea getting a huge bump from the Sydney demolition.

 

[Scodges]

Does DBJ get moved down back now that Farrell is out ? Don’t think cheese guy is getting dropped, so he and Evan’s are our forward smalls.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Gryllis]

I don't think the question is really Marshall or Esava in terms of their direct stats. That does win or lose us a final in isolation.

It's does MG have a better game alongside Dixon and Marshall or Esava? We do need MG to have a great finals series to win it, so setup the talls in the forwardline to give him the best chance.

 

[240volt]

DBJ needs to go back to HB.

Not sure who replaces him at HF.

On form Narkle with 32 and a goal last week would be my pick.
We need someone who can snag a goal.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

It's probably Marshall up forward and DBJ back.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[RossFC]

IN: Narkle, Dixon, Sinn
OUT: McEntee, Visentini, Farrell

Sinn or Frankie Evans sub, DBJ goes back.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Stop it! That is rubbish mate. He got a nothing glancing knock to the head from the straight arm of Turner. It wasnt an elbow hit. It was absolutely innocuous! Something that Marshall will face in every marking contest he faces. Watch the contest from any angle, there was no direct elbow or blow to his head. Now just imagine what would happen to the man if he had of received the Pickett bump! he would still be unconscious!

https://fb.watch/ud8uOONvB7/

The arm isn't straight and the elbow clearly gets him on the way up, after both players run towards the contest at speed from opposite directions.

He reacts to it immediately by holding the back of his head where the contact occurs. Some people can be concussed from light contact, but If you get knocked lightly, you don't instinctively grab where the contact occurred.

He got elbowed in the head at speed. I can't believe I'm having to do a zapruder film analysis on something that so clearly occurs because people want to discredit Marshall.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Wouldn't mind seeing stats on how often each gets outmarked. Also intercept stats with each playing. Also, we've won those games. Something is going right. Why do you think so many people have doubts about Marshall? It's not like everyone woke up one morning and made it their mission in life to neg Marshall.

Having doubts about Marshall is absolutely fine. He's had a poor year.

Arguing that Ratugolea is a better option on anything other than an injury concern basis is not grounded in reality. He's also been poor, and he's never been an effective key forward in his career.

 

[240volt]

The arm isn't straight and the elbow clearly gets him on the way up, after both players run towards the contest at speed from opposite directions.

He reacts to it immediately by holding the back of his head where the contact occurs. Some people can be concussed from light contact, but If you get knocked lightly, you don't instinctively grab where the contact occurred.

He got elbowed in the head at speed. I can't believe I'm having to do a zapruder film analysis on something that so clearly occurs because people want to discredit Marshall.

I’m not seeing an elbow

 

[HinkleysHeroes]

Our 2 best kicks out of the finals , no one to bomb from 55 out when the opposition floods our forward line

Hinkley or no hinkley , that's the premiership done

Backs to the wall. Nothing to lose from here then.

 

[Skindy]

Ratugolea averages a 35% offensive 1v1 contest win rate and a score involvement percentage of 14.2% over the last 5 games.

Marshall averages 22% and 20.6% in the same categories for the entire season.

I think it illustrates that, whilst Ratugolea might be more pleasing to the eye, Marshall is ultimately a more effective forward and provides a greater direct contribution to the scoring power of the team. I couldn't find stats on contests halved so it's difficult to determine who "brings the ball to ground" more.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I’m not seeing an elbow

This is a still image. The elbow in question is pictured next to Marshall's head.

 

[Powertron]

Having doubts about Marshall is absolutely fine. He's had a poor year.

Arguing that Ratugolea is a better option on anything other than an injury concern basis is not grounded in reality. He's also been poor, and he's never been an effective key forward in his career.

The stat they are looking at is offensive 1on1s, specifically % won.

Esava is second in our team at 40%, only behind JHF at 50%. Todd languishes at 22% behind literally every other forward we have including Lord (23%), Finlayson (30%), Mitch (28%), Dixon (31%).

For context, Esava’s 40% is top 5 in the league for key forwards albeit on a small sample size.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Ratugolea averages a 35% offensive 1v1 contest win rate and a score involvement percentage of 14.2% over the last 5 games.

Marshall averages 22% and 20.6% in the same categories for the entire season.

I think it illustrates that, whilst Ratugolea might be more pleasing to the eye, Marshall is ultimately a more effective forward and provides a greater direct contribution to the scoring power of the team. I couldn't find stats on contests halved so it's difficult to determine who "brings the ball to ground" more.

Bang on.

If we bomb the ball high to a contest, Ratugolea is less likely to get outmarked. That part I'm happy to concede.

But that's a poor strategy anyway and Marshall is better at basically everything else.

When we've just lost our best 2 kicks, Marshall's footskills are even more important to hitting targets inside 50.

 

[OneGreatClub]

View attachment 2093643

Bummer, poor fella Poor Port too.

 

[True__Believer]

If someone told you four weeks ago that Burton would be our best kick in defence you would have had them comitted

 

[Lefti93]

Jesus, is that Farrell headline for real?

 

[TazD]

Sinn is the future, we need to start trusting him.