Prediction Changes v bulldogs

[mattis117]

Do you mean Champion data rating points or AFL fantasy points, I’m still confused?

Neither.

 

[FreoRicci]

JOM is the latest escaped goat. He was ranked 14th for Freo last week, so hardly worst on ground. He just suffers from his performance being below expectation, plus he's building into the year.

The following were rated below JOM: Brayshaw, Sturt, Hughes, Draper, Aish, Walker, Banfield, Erasmus, and Amiss. Notice that Walters was rated above this lot, shows just how many were down last week.

Brayshaw, Aish, Banfield, and Draper get passes for obvious reasons, and three of these bottom rated players have been cut (ignoring Amiss).

Weve changed 17% of the team already. Let's see what's changed. Erasmus, Hughes, and Sturt were right to be the first dropped.

He has 5 touches for three quarters. What is he doing better than Banfield- who actually did well, just didn’t kick the 4 goals he should’ve. Whatever ranking system you’re using, it’s clearly isn’t it

 

[FD2646]

What is a cat 10 exactly ? What does it stand for

A massive error - the purple reign podcast guys use it regularly to describe the contributions of luminaries such as Hughes and Tabs.

 

[doppo]

What is a cat 10 exactly ? What does it stand for

Category 10. As in the scale used to measure Hurricanes.
Cat 1 being a heavy wind and bit of rain,
Cat 5 being an absolute catastrophe, buildings destroyed etc.
Cat 10 being Ethan Hughes kicking directly into the man on the mark after taking a MOTY contender resulting in an opposition goal.

 

[s_wd6]

who cares!

He has proven to be an accurate goal kicker regardless if its junk time or if the game is on the line.

In his whole career, Sturt has kicked 8 goals in 8 wins. 4 of those came in the 100 point win against the scum where everyone was kicking goals. Excluding that, that's 4 goals he's contributed to his last 7 wins. He is not a proven goal kicker. If he was then we'd see him contributing to our wins. The fact that he kicks a couple goals in our losses should not be used to justify his selection.

The rest of his goals last year came in blowout losses, bar the Brisbane game, which is the only time he's ever actually looked even dangerous since the last quarter of his debut.

 

[Tundrawolf]

In his whole career, Sturt has kicked 8 goals in 8 wins. 4 of those came in the 100 point win against the scum where everyone was kicking goals. Excluding that, that's 4 goals he's contributed to his last 7 wins. He is not a proven goal kicker. If he was then we'd see him contributing to our wins. The fact that he kicks a couple goals in our losses should not be used to justify his selection.

Rinse and repeat.

 

[DocT]

Sturt is one of the reasons we bomb it into the forward line , because he doesn’t work hard to create an option in space
Those 2 goals were gifts dropped into his lap .

Simpson is the future and I’m stoked JL is giving him a go

Those saying to drop Walters perplex me , we wouldn’t have won the first 3 without him
He’s been pretty bad last couple of weeks but not worthy of dropping
Probably a good sub so we can start Simpson

I just watched Sturt's goals.
1st - was up on the wing and ran long and hard to get into space to receive Young's kick
2nd - ran hard and read it better than his opponent McGovern to get space.
Neither goals were gifts. In both cases he work(ed) hard to create an option in space.
I agree that Simpson is the future and like you I am stoked.
Walters has had 3 bad games in a row, not 2. Here are his stats, they speak for themselves:

2024 Games Log for Michael Walters (Fremantle Dockers)​

Description Date Opponent Result K HB D M G B T HO GA I50 CL CG R50 FF FA AF SC Round 6​ Apr 20​ Eagles​ Loss 68-105​ 3​ 4​ 7​ 0​ 1​ 0​ 4​ 0​ 0​ 0​ 0​ 1​ 0​ 2​ 0​ 41​ 48​ Round 5​ Apr 13​ Power​ Loss 63-66​ 2​ 3​ 5​ 1​ 0​ 0​ 2​ 0​ 0​ 0​ 1​ 2​ 1​ 0​ 0​ 23​ 23​ Round 4​ Apr 6​ Blues​ Loss 63-73​ 3​ 4​ 7​ 1​ 1​ 0​ 2​ 0​ 1​ 1​ 1​ 1​ 0​ 1​ 0​ 35​ 34​ Round 3​ Mar 29​ Crows​ Win 69-34​ 15​ 6​ 21​ 8​ 2​ 4​ 3​ 0​ 0​ 4​ 0​ 3​ 0​ 1​ 0​ 110​ 97​ Round 2​ Mar 23​ Kangaroos​ Win 102-76​ 9​ 1​ 10​ 4​ 1​ 1​ 3​ 0​ 2​ 2​ 0​ 2​ 0​ 1​ 0​ 61​ 55​ Round 1​ Mar 17​ Lions​ Win 93-70​ 5​ 1​ 6​ 1​ 1​ 1​ 3​ 0​ 0​ 1​ 1​ 1​ 0​ 1​ 1​ 37​ 47​

 

[pK75]

In his whole career, Sturt has kicked 8 goals in 8 wins. 4 of those came in the 100 point win against the scum where everyone was kicking goals. Excluding that, that's 4 goals he's contributed to his last 7 wins. He is not a proven goal kicker. If he was then we'd see him contributing to our wins. The fact that he kicks a couple goals in our losses should not be used to justify his selection.

The rest of his goals last year came in blowout losses, bar the Brisbane game, which is the only time he's ever actually looked even dangerous since the last quarter of his debut.

So you don’t count the goals he kicked in losses? Strange take.

Edit: all week everyone on this board has said we need to kick more than 70 points (which we haven’t done in 4 weeks now) and yet our match committee drop one of our few players who actually kicks goals instead of behinds and yet some posters are backing in retaining JOM and Walters ahead of him.

 

[Madas]

I just watched Sturt's goals.
1st - was up on the wing and ran long and hard to get into space to receive Young's kick
2nd - ran hard and read it better than his opponent McGovern to get space.
Neither goals were gifts. In both cases he work(ed) hard to create an option in space.
I agree that Simpson is the future and like you I am stoked.
Walters has had 3 bad games in a row, not 2. Here are his stats, they speak for themselves:

2024 Games Log for Michael Walters (Fremantle Dockers)​

Description Date Opponent Result K HB D M G B T HO GA I50 CL CG R50 FF FA AF SC Round 6​ Apr 20​ Eagles​ Loss 68-105​ 3​ 4​ 7​ 0​ 1​ 0​ 4​ 0​ 0​ 0​ 0​ 1​ 0​ 2​ 0​ 41​ 48​ Round 5​ Apr 13​ Power​ Loss 63-66​ 2​ 3​ 5​ 1​ 0​ 0​ 2​ 0​ 0​ 0​ 1​ 2​ 1​ 0​ 0​ 23​ 23​ Round 4​ Apr 6​ Blues​ Loss 63-73​ 3​ 4​ 7​ 1​ 1​ 0​ 2​ 0​ 1​ 1​ 1​ 1​ 0​ 1​ 0​ 35​ 34​ Round 3​ Mar 29​ Crows​ Win 69-34​ 15​ 6​ 21​ 8​ 2​ 4​ 3​ 0​ 0​ 4​ 0​ 3​ 0​ 1​ 0​ 110​ 97​ Round 2​ Mar 23​ Kangaroos​ Win 102-76​ 9​ 1​ 10​ 4​ 1​ 1​ 3​ 0​ 2​ 2​ 0​ 2​ 0​ 1​ 0​ 61​ 55​ Round 1​ Mar 17​ Lions​ Win 93-70​ 5​ 1​ 6​ 1​ 1​ 1​ 3​ 0​ 0​ 1​ 1​ 1​ 0​ 1​ 1​ 37​ 47​

Yeh look I don’t know what to say
I just don’t see it
And obviously neither do the match committee
I’m sure there isn’t a personal vendetta against the guy .

 

[Dockeroo]

In his whole career, Sturt has kicked 8 goals in 8 wins. 4 of those came in the 100 point win against the scum where everyone was kicking goals. Excluding that, that's 4 goals he's contributed to his last 7 wins. He is not a proven goal kicker. If he was then we'd see him contributing to our wins. The fact that he kicks a couple goals in our losses should not be used to justify his selection.

The rest of his goals last year came in blowout losses, bar the Brisbane game, which is the only time he's ever actually looked even dangerous since the last quarter of his debut.

This is a load of crap dismissing any goals kicked in losses. In actual fact, i would consider it even more difficult to kick goals a game where a team is losing or a right match. It’s easy to pile on Meaningless pressure free goals when you are 50 points up.

Anyway you have had a long term irrational dislike of Sturt on this board for about 2 years now, which makes me think you had some kind of negative personal interaction with him in Perth at some point that’s clouding your judgement of him.

 

[DocT]

In his whole career, Sturt has kicked 8 goals in 8 wins. 4 of those came in the 100 point win against the scum where everyone was kicking goals. Excluding that, that's 4 goals he's contributed to his last 7 wins. He is not a proven goal kicker. If he was then we'd see him contributing to our wins. The fact that he kicks a couple goals in our losses should not be used to justify his selection.

The rest of his goals last year came in blowout losses, bar the Brisbane game, which is the only time he's ever actually looked even dangerous since the last quarter of his debut.

I hope his overall stats help clarify. He has only played 19 games in total. We are not expecting a finished product. For his career stage I think his goal numbers stack up reasonably well. His goal assists/tackles are pitiful which I think are the main knock on his game.

Career Season Averages​ Year Team GM K H D M G B T HO FF FA GA I50 CL CG R50 BL 2024​ Dockers​ 1​ 3.0​ 3.0​ 6.0​ 2.0​ 2.0​ 0​ 0​ 0​ 0​ 1.0​ 0​ 1.0​ 0​ 2.0​ 0​ ​ 2023​ Dockers​ 14*​ 4.6​ 3.9​ 8.5​ 3.2​ 1.2​ 0.6​ 1.2​ 0​ 0.4​ 0.5​ 0.4​ 1.4​ 0.2​ 1.4​ 0​ ​ 2021​ Dockers​ 1​ 3.0​ 2.0​ 5.0​ 2.0​ 1.0​ 1.0​ 0​ 0​ 0​ 0​ 0​ 2.0​ 0​ 1.0​ 0​ ​ 2020​ Dockers​ 3​ 4.0​ 3.7​ 7.7​ 2.3​ 1.3​ 0​ 1.0​ 0​ 0.7​ 0​ 0.3​ 1.0​ 0​ 0​ 0.7​ ​ Career​ ​ 19*​ 4.4​ 3.7​ 8.1​ 2.9​ 1.3​ 0.5​ 1.1​ 0​ 0.4​ 0.4​ 0.3​ 1.4​ 0.2​ 1.2​ 0.1​ ​

* Includes 2 games as activated substitute, and 1 game subbed off.

 

[JammoMonty]

Walters I get as he’s been a great servant of the club, but JOM? Wtaf does he offer?

Watched the GWS win tonight and the hunger from their forwards, young and quick. Darcy Jones came in for Greene and an debutant and ran his ass of along with Thomas and Bedford. Freo have Walters and JOM, plus Emmett who doesn’t have the pace. That ball is going to ping out there so quickly.

Will be very interesting to see who JL names as the sub. I just hope it’s not Simpson. Banfield and Johnson surely on their last legs, I’m thinking it’s one of them. Switta available next week inject some much needed speed into the squad.

 

[Footskill]

This is a load of crap dismissing any goals kicked in losses. In actual fact, i would consider it even more difficult to kick goals a game where a team is losing or a right match. It’s easy to pile on Meaningless pressure free goals when you are 50 points up.

Anyway you have had a long term irrational dislike of Sturt on this board for about 2 years now, which makes me think you had some kind of negative personal interaction with him in Perth at some point that’s clouding your judgement of him.

Lol says the person who includes Hughes and Banners name in pretty much any negative post. That last paragraph made me laugh

 

[DocT]

Yeh look I don’t know what to say
I just don’t see it
And obviously neither do the match committee
I’m sure there isn’t a personal vendetta against the guy .

Fair enough.
I guess my take is one commonly expressed about many players: the knocks might be valid but he is young and needs a decent run at it before we decide he's a bust.

 

[Madas]

Fair enough.
I guess my take is one commonly expressed about many players: the knocks might be valid but he is young and needs a decent run at it before we decide he's a bust.

I think he just doesn’t round out his game enough to get selected over someone like Emmet who kicks less goals but must offer more in other aspects of his game

 

[vidwhal]

O’Meara must have dirty photos.

Drop the guy who kicks 2 straight goals
And keep the guy who’s done * all for 18 months.

He's become our version of North's Kane Turner.

 

[s_wd6]

This is a load of crap dismissing any goals kicked in losses. In actual fact, i would consider it even more difficult to kick goals a game where a team is losing or a right match. It’s easy to pile on Meaningless pressure free goals when you are 50 points up.

Anyway you have had a long term irrational dislike of Sturt on this board for about 2 years now, which makes me think you had some kind of negative personal interaction with him in Perth at some point that’s clouding your judgement of him.

No, I'm simply pointing out that he hasn't play a big role in any of our wins, yet people act like keeping him in the team will be the difference between us winning and losing. Which is baseless because it never has been.

I have no personal problem with Sturt. I'd love nothing more than for him to prove me wrong. I have every problem with supporters acting like he's the messiah and infallible because of a quarter of football he played 4 years and throwing a sook every time he gets dropped when he does nothing all game but has 2(!!) goals in a game we lose by 50 points. There are plenty of guys who can contribute so much more than Sturt does and you'll be calling for their head.

 

[pK75]

Almost hoping we lose just for a minor and petty victory over people on a discussion board?

That's a new level of sad, sort your priorities out.

Of course I don’t hope we lose, but I think if we win it will be in spite of the output we see from JOM and Walters, not because of it.
Likewise I definitely don’t want to end up as one of those posters who disappeared while we are winning then come on to spew hate at the coach and club.
When we keep backing in some players despite having others performing at a higher standard at the lower level, it’s very frustrating.

 

[Vintage]

What if Voss kicks 4

Amiss will still come back when he’s fit. There is no way Voss is keeping amiss out of the team.

Would he push Treacy out? Unlikely at this stage o would have thought.

 

[pK75]

No, I'm simply pointing out that he hasn't play a big role in any of our wins, yet people act like keeping him in the team will be the difference between us winning and losing. Which is baseless because it never has been.

I have no personal problem with Sturt. I have every problem with supporters acting like he's the messiah and infallible because of a quarter of football he played 4 years and throwing a sook every time he gets dropped when he does nothing all game but has 2(!!) goals in a game we lose by 50 points. There are plenty of guys who can contribute so much more than Sturt does and you'll be calling for their head.

I’m just calling for JOMs head, he’s doing nothing as a wing/HHF, I think Banfield should take his role and Sturt stay as the forward. It’s not that hard to see is it?

 

[mightymouse75]

I’m just calling for JOMs head, he’s doing nothing as a wing/HHF, I think Banfield should take his role and Sturt stay as the forward. It’s not that hard to see is it?

Not at all.
Sturt deserved another crack at it.
Jom does not deserve peel reserves unfortunately.
In positive news, we now have enough healthy defenders to move Hugh's along.

 

[s_wd6]

I’m just calling for JOMs head, he’s doing nothing as a wing/HHF, I think Banfield should take his role and Sturt stay as the forward. It’s not that hard to see is it?

Banfield offers more as a forward than Sturt does. More shots at goal, more score involvements, more goal assists, more pressure acts, more tackles. Sure its 1 goal a game vs 2, but I can guarantee that Banners comes out on top when you take into account goals generated from the rest of his contributions to a game.

JOM can **** off. Stanley can come in.

 

[ilikepotatoes]

Banfield offers more as a forward than Sturt does. More shots at goal, more score involvements, more goal assists, more pressure acts, more tackles. Sure its 1 goal a game vs 2, but I can guarantee that Banners comes out on top when you take into account goals generated from the rest of his contributions to a game.

JOM can * off. Stanley can come in.

You've lost me if you think Banfield is a better forward than Sturt.

Particularly after the last game.

I'm very comfortable Sturt would be a 30 goal a season forward if he was afforded the same opportunities as Banfield to this point in his career.

 

[s_wd6]

You've lost me if you think Banfield is a better forward than Sturt.

Particularly after the last game.

I'm very comfortable Sturt would be a 30 goal a season forward if he was afforded the same opportunities as Banfield to this point in his career.

The entire game Sturt gave himself two chances to get a goal. Yet the worser forward of the two generated double the shots. There’s a lot more to being a good forward than kicking goals. Sturt is a one dimensional player where Bailey is actually versatile and the reason why he gets so many opportunities is because he plays whatever role he’s needed for. He genuinely halved more contests playing as a third tall than Sturt did. Maybe if Sturt wants to get as many chances as Banfield he should expand his skillset.

You cannot compare Banfield the tagger, small forward, medium/tall forward, winger, super sub to Sturt the medium forward and wonder why Banfield has earned himself more opportunities.

Is the coach going to look at the game and see “hey, this guy missed a couple easy shots that I’ve seen him make plenty of times before, let me drop him” or is he going to see “hey, look at that great forward pressure that lead to a htb. What a great block to let Treacy take a mark. What a good crumb. Etc etc.”

 

[apuchar]

Yeh look I don’t know what to say
I just don’t see it
And obviously neither do the match committee
I’m sure there isn’t a personal vendetta against the guy .

Just seems odd then that Briety specifically mentioned Sturt saying we know how extremely talented he is.
My guess is he isn't back to full fitness because of injury and his interrupted pre-season. Unfortunately, I don't know whether there will be another opportunity before the end of the season.