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Is it curtains for Curtin?


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Just like Ross the Boss did to Brad Crouch - he's 1 game off a trigger, got dropped, then injured in the VFL. Will need to make his way back through the VFL, should be about 4-5 weeks until they need to decided if they get him back for a game/ another season or not.
Dropped or "sick certificate".




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I'm hoping that we don't have any ******* insane selections this week, but am absolutely expecting Nicks has some sort of brain melt again. Smith will almost certainly be back in the team...
Brace yourself for the inevitable…

Curtin out Smith in
Cook out Murphy in

Deep down sadly we all know it’s going to happen.
 
Brace yourself for the inevitable…

Curtin out Smith in
Cook out Murphy in

Deep down sadly we all know it’s going to happen.
We're a battle scarred lot. Pessimistic.
 
Unlike most here I think Smith is likely still best 22 when fit. Was good most of the time last year and has had moments this year where he's clearly still a capable player. But I'm not convinced at all that he will be best 22 next year, and he's been bad enough at times so far this year you'd think they'd have a close eye on that. An extension trigger seems crazy, given that.
 
How could they possibly play Smith after not playing him last week and providing nothing as sub. He simply has to play Sanfl. IMO this is another nicks test, sniffs a bit of a form run and finals back on the radar...I wonder if he'll go with smith and Murphy

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If we drop Curtin.....

Sad Doctor Who GIF
 
I watched a replay of the SANFL last match against the Magpears and
1) Schoenberg is ready to go although his kicking was a bit sloppy.
2) Dowling was good and spent some time playing on the wing which is interesting
3) Taylor was good and I like his speed out of stoppages.
4) Murphy also had quite a good game, set up several games and provided good pressure

I believe that McHenry and Four Touch needs to go. I would bring in Schoenberg and Taylor but I expect it will be Schoenberg and Murphy.

Smith moves to the wing and Curtin remains at half back.
 
I watched a replay of the SANFL last match against the Magpears and
1) Schoenberg is ready to go although his kicking was a bit sloppy.
2) Dowling was good and spent some time playing on the wing which is interesting
3) Taylor was good and I like his speed out of stoppages.
4) Murphy also had quite a good game, set up several games and provided good pressure

I believe that McHenry and Four Touch needs to go. I would bring in Schoenberg and Taylor but I expect it will be Schoenberg and Murphy.

Smith moves to the wing and Curtin remains at half back.
I watched the 3rd quarter and thought Murphy was awful.
He played a really selfish and entitled game to me. Cutting players off so they had to give him the ball, turning it over and also abusing players who didn't give him the ball.
I was not a fan at all.
 
How could they possibly play Smith after not playing him last week and providing nothing as sub. He simply has to play Sanfl. IMO this is another nicks test, sniffs a bit of a form run and finals back on the radar...I wonder if he'll go with smith and Murphy

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Did you not hear Nicks? He thought Smith had a significant impact.
He was the only one on the planet who did, but that's what he said.

It would be a special level of stupidity to drop Curtin, but we are that stupid, so it's definitely possible.
 
G'day Crows fans. I'm a bit of a stat head and I just thought I'd share this with you all;

I have 25 years worth of data that shows a pretty strong correlation between a teams offensive efficiency (Inside 50s>Goals), their defensive efficiency (Defensive Inside 50s>Opposition Goals) and the differential between the two being a pretty good guide as to how strongly their game will stand up when it really matters in September.

For example; Last year the Pies Off/Eff was 25.31% whilst their Def/Eff was 20.65% which gave them a differential of +4.66 which was by far and away the best in the comp.

Similarly in 2022, the Cats led the way with a +3.17

The Crows ranked strongly in this area last season (+2.60) and I was surprised at how poorly this season had started. Good news is the last month has been very encouraging, especially when you consider the strength of opposition being faced over the last 4 weeks.

Adel Rd5_8.jpg

From -3.82 a month ago to a +1.92...really positive signs.

Anyways, pardon the intrusion. All the best for the rest of the season...cheers.
 
G'day Crows fans. I'm a bit of a stat head and I just thought I'd share this with you all;

I have 25 years worth of data that shows a pretty strong correlation between a teams offensive efficiency (Inside 50s>Goals), their defensive efficiency (Defensive Inside 50s>Opposition Goals) and the differential between the two being a pretty good guide as to how strongly their game will stand up when it really matters in September.

For example; Last year the Pies Off/Eff was 25.31% whilst their Def/Eff was 20.65% which gave them a differential of +4.66 which was by far and away the best in the comp.

Similarly in 2022, the Cats led the way with a +3.17

The Crows ranked strongly in this area last season (+2.60) and I was surprised at how poorly this season had started. Good news is the last month has been very encouraging, especially when you consider the strength of opposition being faced over the last 4 weeks.

View attachment 1983624

From -3.82 a month ago to a +1.92...really positive signs.

Anyways, pardon the intrusion. All the best for the rest of the season...cheers.
Great analysis, cheers! Could you please update us later in the year? Do you publish the data anywhere?
 
I watched the 3rd quarter and thought Murphy was awful.
I watched the whole match.

I guess you missed the two passes to our forwards who kicked easy goals in the first half?

I am not suggesting he had a fantastic game but anyone who watched the whole game suggesting he was awful is plain silly .
He played his typical game as a high half forward. Ran hard, put pressure on their defenders rebounding out of our F50, missed a couple of passes that a good forward would have made. He had 19 disposals, 6 I50s, 6 tackles and 6 marks.

Or we can stick with the guy that had one touch in the last 80 minutes of the Pear game. I won’t throw the toys out of the cot if Brayden is given another game but he has averaged less than 8 disposals in his 5 games of AFL this year. If you remove the game against the Kangaroo witches hats, he has averaged 6 disposals per game.
 
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With news of a Brodie Smith contract trigger it's essential he is dropped and plays the rest of the year in the SANFL

I recall Henderson being dropped for finals after a BOG performance against the Eagles in final round so we could avoid a trigger. I expect Smith to crawl around until he hits his trigger and then go out through injury.
 
No, I just don’t believe in putting arbitrary triggers like so many games. A player of his age could start the season ok and then fall off a cliff as the season progresses but the trigger may have already occurred.

Don’t have triggers for any player 30 years+, discuss at the end of the season unless they are having a smashing season, like Tex did last year as he earnt it.

It’s a negotiation, they wouldn’t accept 3 and nor us 4. A trigger is a reasonable compromise. It’s just how it’s structured that matters. Effectively qualifying with games played 4 years ago is stupidity, it should be geared heavily towards the backend of the contract.
 
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