Certified Legendary Thread China History in the Making Part 2

[Lawnchair Larry]

One of my friends (a physicist, not a doctor) has pointed out to me that the 2% fatality rate might be false, or at least inaccurate.

It seems to have been arrived at by dividing the number of deaths/number confirmed cases = fatality rate.

However, the disease has an incubation period, illness period and death/recovery of ~2weeks. Which means that that calculation should be number of deaths/number of confirmed cases 2 weeks ago = fatality rate.

This brings the fatality rate up above 10%. It is worth noting though that only older people (~50+) and people with existing conditions (diabetes/respiratory) have actually died so far.

My perception at the moment is that this is a more mobile disease than SARS of 2003, but with a lower mortality rate.
I have seen SARS mortality figures of 10%, and even up to 15%. We are not there yet IMO. Im thinking that this disease is making up for its lower mortality by hitting more people.
We shall see.
I take your point about back correcting, but not by 14 days, as others have suggested.

 

[Tibbs]

My perception at the moment is that this is a more mobile disease than SARS of 2003, but with a lower mortality rate.
I have seen SARS mortality figures of 10%, and even up to 15%. We are not there yet IMO. Im thinking that this disease is making up for its lower mortality by hitting more people.
We shall see.
I take your point about back correcting, but not by 14 days, as others have suggested.

Your perception? That is exactly what is being reported worldwide on every news bulletin!

 

[Tibbs]

One of my friends (a physicist, not a doctor) has pointed out to me that the 2% fatality rate might be false, or at least inaccurate.

It seems to have been arrived at by dividing the number of deaths/number confirmed cases = fatality rate.

However, the disease has an incubation period, illness period and death/recovery of ~2weeks. Which means that that calculation should be number of deaths/number of confirmed cases 2 weeks ago = fatality rate.

This brings the fatality rate up above 10%. It is worth noting though that only older people (~50+) and people with existing conditions (diabetes/respiratory) have actually died so far.

Actually the opposite is being suggested by health experts. That in fact there have been many cases going unreported by people, who other than having a temp & other rugular flu symptoms, have not sought medical treatment. The scientist interviewed, said that the total number that have been infected is probably far higher, and that the mortality rate might actually be closer to 1%.

We have to wait till the dust settles before we get the final figures.

 

[Janus]

You’re only counted in the official figures if you’re admitted to hospital.

The poor souls who have died on the streets or in their homes aren’t added to the tally.

Meanwhile, Hyundai has just announced its shutting down production in South Korea due to supply chain problems from China.

 

[Tibbs]

You’re only counted in the official figures if you’re admitted to hospital.

The poor souls who have died on the streets or in their homes aren’t added to the tally.

Meanwhile, Hyundai has just announced its shutting down production in South Korea due to supply chain problems from China.

You reckon? I think that is nonsense.

Yes, it's fact that there are many thousands of unreported Caronavirus cases, as the symptoms can range from the quite mild. Most of these people might not even have realized they have it. But as far as deaths go. Anyone dying on the street or in their homes still have to be taken to a morgue & the death reported, with the infected body being specially treated. You dont reckon they are going to bother recording that?

 

[Janus]

You reckon? I think that is nonsense.

Yes, it's fact that there are many thousands of unreported Caronavirus cases, as the symptoms can range from the quite mild. Most of these people might not even have realized they have it. But as far as deaths go. Anyone dying on the street or in their homes still have to be taken to a morgue & the death reported, with the infected body being specially treated. You dont reckon they are going to bother recording that?

I think you misunderstand just how important it is for the CPC to maintain their image that the communist system of government is the best system in the world.

 

[Alberton Proud]

Despite the fact he is an idiot, Stephen Rowe was right to ask Chris Davies / PAFC last night when cut off point comes

The answer was less than convincing

Surely there is a date where the AFL has to simply say it's too dangerous to now proceed

Don't see why this should be hidden or brushed over by the powers that be

I feel sorry for those punters who've already booked flights and accom etc - what are their rights regarding insurance ?

What exposure will PAFC have if it doesn't proceed - will Mr Gui Guoji covers the costs ?

Where's the game going to be played Marvel or Adelaide Oval ?

Will we still have to pay the Saints their 'fee' ?

Question, questions

 

[Tibbs]

I think you misunderstand just how important it is for the CPC to maintain their image that the communist system of government is the best system in the world.

Nope, I dont misunderstand anything about China. Not long come back from China (relax everyone, well before the virus outbreak), and have spent the last 18 years traveling to & from Asia and SE Asia.

I have no doubt that not all the numbers are being revealed, but that includes cases of infected patients, as well as deaths. International experts have had significant time to examine the genome of the virus, to study the course of the virus in infected local patients, and to make determination as to its spread rate and potency, eg vs SARS. The figures being bandied around by international health experts are based on more than than figures released by the Chinese.

Another thing that makes me laugh is the wearing of masks - As if they are the saviour & protector of the masses. The masks should mainly be for those infected with the virus so they are not spreading it through droplets. The main way most will contact the disease is by surface contamination. Not wishing to racially profile, but from my own experience over many years, the washing of hands is a very seldom used practice throughout Asia. People in China would be better off buying all the alcohol handwash they can get their hands on, rather than depending on a mask to protect them!

 

[Powerade 08]

In my uneducated opinion there is zero chance this goes ahead.

SARS was 8,098 cases from November 2002 - July 2003

Corona is 24,000 confirmed cases so far, but the real number is probably much higher.

The excuse given by the Chinese government is there are not enough testing kits available for all the suspected cases. There is no way this is cleaned up before the time that the AFL has to make a decision.

 

[Chachi]

Despite the fact he is an idiot, Stephen Rowe was right to ask Chris Davies / PAFC last night when cut off point comes

The answer was less than convincing

Surely there is a date where the AFL has to simply say it's too dangerous to now proceed

Don't see why this should be hidden or brushed over by the powers that be

I feel sorry for those punters who've already booked flights and accom etc - what are their rights regarding insurance ?

What exposure will PAFC have if it doesn't proceed - will Mr Gui Guoji covers the costs ?

Where's the game going to be played Marvel or Adelaide Oval ?

Will we still have to pay the Saints their 'fee' ?

Question, questions

Both the G and Marvel are being used on the Saturday and Sunday. Marvel available Friday but they won't do double header due to the TV rights.
It might end up being a Monday night game at Marvel unless the Saints sell the game to us. No games at Adelaide Oval that weekend.

 

[Smithy7]

 

[WillemDaDrew]

This commercial adventure is getting more embarrassing from year to year.

 

[OneGreatClub]

This commercial adventure is getting more embarrassing from year to year.

why?

 

[Jonts]

You’re only counted in the official figures if you’re admitted to hospital.

The poor souls who have died on the streets or in their homes aren’t added to the tally.

Meanwhile, Hyundai has just announced its shutting down production in South Korea due to supply chain problems from China.

South Korea is cooked.

 

[PowerBaz]

No way the game will go ahead IMO.

Just thinking, do the AFL love it anyway? could be a reason to shelve it.

 

[PowerBaz]

I mentioned this the other day - first article I have seen about it.

2020 Olympics in Japan.

Tokyo Olympics chief says coronavirus could disrupt Games

Toshiro Muto ‘seriously worried’ about spread of virus with 170 days to go

www.theguardian.com

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

No way the game will go ahead IMO.

Just thinking, do the AFL love it anyway? could be a reason to shelve it.

Why did the AFL employ 2 people and stick them in an office in Shanghai mid 2019 if they don't love the prospects in China?

A couple of weeks before the game in 2019 the AFL made their announcement.

AFL set to open office in China

AFL to open China office and a Chinese-focused Auskick centre in Hurstville, Sydney

www.afl.com.au

The AFL's new office based in Shanghai will open in the next few weeks, according to the League's general manager of China David Stevenson, and be staffed by two full-time employees.

"They'll be primarily focused on driving commercial outcomes and building long-term partnerships with either Australian companies trying to grow into China or Chinese companies trying to grow into Australia," Stevenson told AFL.com.au.

"They'll also be driving strong broadcast partnerships. We have a game a week on TV there and some strong social media coverage.

"Thirdly, the government plays such an important role, so it shows the government that we are long-term committed to China and building those partnerships."

The AFL wants to be involved with China because of a desire to expand, and with 1.2 million people of Chinese descent living in Australia, the link is already there.

It also looms as a revenue source to help fund other areas, such as the NAB AFL Women's competition and grassroots footy.

 

[OneGreatClub]

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[Steve Dore]

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Fair enough too. It's a Saint's home game so if it can't be played in Shanghai it reverts to a "normal" Saint's home game which they can play wherever they choose, with AFL approval, and we don't pay them a cent.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

St Kilda talk as if they have some say. The AFL has their balls in their right hand and ours in their left. Just depends how hard they want to squeeze.

 

[chiwigi]

Why did the AFL employ 2 people and stick them in an office in Shanghai mid 2019 if they don't love the prospects in China?

A couple of weeks before the game in 2019 the AFL made their announcement.

AFL set to open office in China

AFL to open China office and a Chinese-focused Auskick centre in Hurstville, Sydney

www.afl.com.au

The AFL's new office based in Shanghai will open in the next few weeks, according to the League's general manager of China David Stevenson, and be staffed by two full-time employees.

"They'll be primarily focused on driving commercial outcomes and building long-term partnerships with either Australian companies trying to grow into China or Chinese companies trying to grow into Australia," Stevenson told AFL.com.au.

"They'll also be driving strong broadcast partnerships. We have a game a week on TV there and some strong social media coverage.

"Thirdly, the government plays such an important role, so it shows the government that we are long-term committed to China and building those partnerships."

The AFL wants to be involved with China because of a desire to expand, and with 1.2 million people of Chinese descent living in Australia, the link is already there.

It also looms as a revenue source to help fund other areas, such as the NAB AFL Women's competition and grassroots footy.

I reckon the Coronavirus stuff will end up working in our favour long term
Once it has all settled down China will be looking to re-establish relationships and fix the image issue as quickly as they can. This will be focussed on the 'Western' countries and consumers.

 

[Andre]

I reckon the Coronavirus stuff will end up working in our favour long term
Once it has all settled down China will be looking to re-establish relationships and fix the image issue as quickly as they can. This will be focussed on the 'Western' countries and consumers.

The worry is if it doesn't go ahead, then when it returns it'll be Collingwood/Richmond/Essendon/Hawks vs. someone other than us and

 

[Alberton Proud]

The AFL’s China game is practically doomed following a call from the Shanghai sporting authority to suspend all sporting events in the city until the coronavirus “threat is over”.

The Shanghai Sports General Association called on sports organisers to “strictly abide by the requirement of the Shanghai Sports Bureau to stop organising sports events during the epidemic.”
It said, in a statement translated by Reuters, that all sports events should be suspended “until the epidemic is over.”

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[LFC2010]

St Kilda talk as if they have some say. The AFL has their balls in their right hand and ours in their left. Just depends how hard they want to squeeze.

St Kilda are talking like another entitled bunch of Victorian flogs.

 

[Alberton Proud]

What if our Koch AGM promised JMS was a big Chinese Company who are now getting cold feet