Certified Legendary Thread China History in the Making Part 2

[simba_]

wo hen hao

 

[Alberton Proud]

wo hen hao

Pleased to hear it

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

It's quite funny to me how China has gotten itself placed on the government's Do Not Travel list for a disease with a 2% mortality rate.

Iran isn't even on the Do Not Travel list. Iran!

USA has for the first time in 50 years issued a fully mandated federal quarantine, for US citizens travelling from China.

Only a handful of airports are allowed to accept US flights from China.

Didn't even bother with a mandated ban for the Ebola virus. Obama v Trump.

Political considerations at play along with health issues. Self quarantining for US individuals, but a govt mandate.

In the video below US Secretary for Health and Human Services, Alex Azar, who isn't a doctor but a lawyer, former pharmaceutical industry lobbyist but was a former drug company executive ie Eli Lilly and others, so knows the US health system well, explains why they have taken the decision, after a 2 minute background intro story.

The video shows the CEO of WHO saying they are happy with what China is doing.

 

[Janus]

China is on the do not travel list temporarily because its health system can't even cope with its own infected citizens at the moment. If you went there, you're throwing yourself on the mercy of the Chinese health system if you happened to get sick.

Then what would happen? The typical Australian response would be to say that the Australian government should help out.

So the government does, and flies you back to Australia. Now you're telling the Australian tax payer '**** you, you can pay for me to be in quarantine for two weeks under 24 hour observation, because the Australian government doesn't want to suffer the same loss of productivity that China is going through right now and grind Australia's economy to a halt if the virus break out here.'

I'm personally of the opinion that the reason why the US, Australia and other countries banned people entering the country who had visited mainland China is because they didn't want infected people from China getting on a plane to go overseas to other countries to get treated. China believes that it has the best system of governance....a good system of governance looks after the health of its citizens first and foremost, regardless of the desire for innovation etc.

China's entire economy has been shut down for two weeks because of this thing. The mortality rate being low doesn't mean it's not doing massive damage to their country.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

China's entire economy has been shut down for two weeks because of this thing. The mortality rate being low doesn't mean it's not doing massive damage to their country.

What does that mean?? Nobody growing any food? Nobody manufacturing anything? Nobody buying anything? Nobody doing any banking? Nobody paying their bills?

The entire economy has not been shut down. Taken a hard hit? Yes. But 100% shut down is an exaggeration.

 

[gbear]

The virus is not killing healthy tun of the mill people, rather it is killing immunocompromised people and older adults. I am more concerned about some of the non sensationalised viruses that are currently contained to the continent of Africa, they are far more deadly to the human race as a whole.

 

[Alberton Proud]

It is also the standard 2 week Chinese New Year break - to be extended by an extra week as mandated the government today

Apart from the fact it's the middle of winter, it's actually pretty good timing for a viral outbreak

 

[Tredz]

What does that mean?? Nobody growing any food? Nobody manufacturing anything? Nobody buying anything? Nobody doing any banking? Nobody paying their bills?

The entire economy has not been shut down. Taken a hard hit? Yes. But 100% shut down is an exaggeration.

FWIW I have an Australian friend who has a manufacturing business in China (lives there but is back in Australia at the moment) - spoke to him yesterday and he was quite worried about his business. Said his employees are not allowed to come to work but he is still required to pay them. Thinks he could lose his business if this is not resolved soon. Not sure how wide spread or encompassing this is but obviously it has potential for significant impact to the overall economy.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

FWIW I have an Australian friend who has a manufacturing business in China (lives there but is back in Australia at the moment) - spoke to him yesterday and he was quite worried about his business. Said his employees are not allowed to come to work but he is still required to pay them. Thinks he could lose his business if this is not resolved soon. Not sure how wide spread or encompassing this is but obviously it has potential for significant impact to the overall economy.

Where is his factory?

 

[Tredz]

Where is his factory?

Somewhere I couldn't pronounce and can't remember now anyway. He did say its not at the epicenter - but close enough to be worried. His (Chinese) wife is still there so he's pretty worried about her.

 

[Sleezy]

Notice a cruise ship fom Hong Kong to Phillipines has been denied entry to the latter. Things are hotting up but still death rate is in the low 2%s.

Adelaide couple on board:

David and Judy Holst were about halfway through a 30-day cruise through Asia, starting in Singapore and ending in Shanghai.

Name rings a bell....maybe

Cruise ship stuck at sea after 'dumb, greedy' stop in Hong Kong amid coronavirus fears

An Adelaide couple is among up to 2,000 people stuck on a cruise ship in the South China Sea after it was refused entry to the Philippines because of fears about the coronavirus.

www.abc.net.au

One of my friends (a physicist, not a doctor) has pointed out to me that the 2% fatality rate might be false, or at least inaccurate.

It seems to have been arrived at by dividing the number of deaths/number confirmed cases = fatality rate.

However, the disease has an incubation period, illness period and death/recovery of ~2weeks. Which means that that calculation should be number of deaths/number of confirmed cases 2 weeks ago = fatality rate.

This brings the fatality rate up above 10%. It is worth noting though that only older people (~50+) and people with existing conditions (diabetes/respiratory) have actually died so far.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

One of my friends (a physicist, not a doctor) has pointed out to me that the 2% fatality rate might be false, or at least inaccurate.

It seems to have been arrived at by dividing the number of deaths/number confirmed cases = fatality rate.

However, the disease has an incubation period, illness period and death/recovery of ~2weeks. Which means that that calculation should be number of deaths/number of confirmed cases 2 weeks ago = fatality rate.

This brings the fatality rate up above 10%. It is worth noting though that only older people (~50+) and people with existing conditions (diabetes/respiratory) have actually died so far.

Maybe, maybe not. Fatality rate is a simple equation = deaths / confirmed cases.

The Ebola fatality rate was 90% in the first few weeks. It had an incubation period. However after those first few weeks and once international health professionals were mobilized to help out the locals and they started to put people into better care, the fatality rate peaked at 60% in that first year after the first month or so when 90% of people were dying. The final fatality rate after 3 years was in the low 40%.

 

[Sleezy]

Maybe, maybe not. Fatality rate is a simple equation = deaths / confirmed cases.

The Ebola fatality rate was 90% in the first few weeks. It had an incubation period. However after those first few weeks and once international health professionals were mobilized to help out the locals and they started to put people into better care, the fatality rate peaked at 60% in that first year after the first month or so when 90% of people were dying. The final fatality rate after 3 years was in the low 40%.

Once the infection rate has stabilised I agree. However at the moment the infection rate is exponential, which could be skewing the fatality rate downwards.

At the start of a pandemic, it seems logical to calculate the fatality rate as:
- of the 800 infected by week 2, 120 had died by week 4 = 15%

as opposed to:
- of the 6000 infected by week 4, 120 had died = 2% (all of whom were infected by the end of week 2)

 

[Janus]

What does that mean?? Nobody growing any food? Nobody manufacturing anything? Nobody buying anything? Nobody doing any banking? Nobody paying their bills?

The entire economy has not been shut down. Taken a hard hit? Yes. But 100% shut down is an exaggeration.

Yeah, that's exactly what it means.

Everyone has been mandated to work from home until Feb 8-10, unless they are essential services. That means feed can't be manufactured for agriculture...and even if it could be, it can't get to where it needs to go because roads are blocked.

Xu Zhihua, chief executive of sportswear brand Peak, wrote on his Weibo account: “The whole society has come to a standstill with almost zero consumption.” He worries that a lot of small and medium-size companies won’t be able to pay back their loans. “Then the whole economy will be finished!” he added.

The government has ordered employers to pay employees double pay for working from home - I'm guessing to kick start the economy once the restrictions are lifted - but look at articles about places like Macau etc. They are ghost towns.

 

[Forzaport]

It's quite funny to me how China has gotten itself placed on the government's Do Not Travel list for a disease with a 2% mortality rate.

Iran isn't even on the Do Not Travel list. Iran!

Think.

China has 20,000 cases and growing. It's highly virulent. China has to date under-reported the spread of the virus.

Travel should have been banned the moment the news broke.

Governments around the world, including Australia, have demonstrated utter incompetence in dealing with this. Singapore is probably the only port that gets a pass mark.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Yeah, that's exactly what it means.

Everyone has been mandated to work from home until Feb 8-10, unless they are essential services. That means feed can't be manufactured for agriculture...and even if it could be, it can't get to where it needs to go because roads are blocked.

Xu Zhihua, chief executive of sportswear brand Peak, wrote on his Weibo account: “The whole society has come to a standstill with almost zero consumption.” He worries that a lot of small and medium-size companies won’t be able to pay back their loans. “Then the whole economy will be finished!” he added.

The government has ordered employers to pay employees double pay for working from home - I'm guessing to kick start the economy once the restrictions are lifted - but look at articles about places like Macau etc. They are ghost towns.

I don't know who edited your post, but it said that utilities, pharmacies and supermarkets are still open.

Ergo 100% of the economy is not shut down according to that NY Times article, despite making a chicken farmer the centre of the economy.

 

[El Zorro]

Singapore is probably the only port that gets a pass mark.

Happy to hear that as I'm travelling there tomorrow!

 

[Janus]

I don't who edited your post, but it said that utilities, pharmacies and supermarkets are still open.

Ergo 100% of the economy is not shut down according to that NY Times article, despite making a chicken farmer the centre of the economy.

I edited it...mainly because it was quoting too much of a published article.

Utilities can't be shut down because hospitals and residences still need power and water.

Pharmacies can't be shut down because people still need medicine.

Supermarkets can't be shut down because people still need to eat.

There's a reason why the Shanghai composite index has fallen 16% in the past two days. An economy requires the transaction of goods and services for money. There comes a tipping point.

Three essential services being available - one of which is a necessity - isn't the basis to keep a 12.24 trillion US dollar economy ticking over.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Once the infection rate has stabilised I agree. However at the moment the infection rate is exponential, which could be skewing the fatality rate downwards.

At the start of a pandemic, it seems logical to calculate the fatality rate as:
- of the 800 infected by week 2, 120 had died by week 4 = 15%

as opposed to:
- of the 6000 infected by week 4, 120 had died = 2% (all of whom were infected by the end of week 2)

It depends when the early cases had become affected and if indeed it is 14 days. This Chinese study was published in New England Journal of Medicine 0n 30th Jan, but would have been work from earlier on in the month.

Coronavirus Incubation Period (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Current estimated incubation period (how long it takes for symptoms to appear) for the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

A Chinese study published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan. 30[7], has found the incubation period to be 5.2 days on average, but it varies greatly among patients. The Chinese team conducting the study said their findings support a 14-day medical observation period for people exposed to the pathogen.

Below is an extract of the study findings (highlight added by Worldometer):

Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases.

The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days.

In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).

But I guess if the serious cases end up as deaths, then 15% is near the mark.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 128,239,149 Cases and 2,804,346 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I edited it...mainly because it was quoting too much of a published article.

Utilities can't be shut down because hospitals and residences still need power and water.

Pharmacies can't be shut down because people still need medicine.

Supermarkets can't be shut down because people still need to eat.

There's a reason why the Shanghai composite index has fallen 16% in the past two days. An economy requires the transaction of goods and services for money. There comes a tipping point.

Three essential services being available - one of which is a necessity - isn't the basis to keep a 12.24 trillion US dollar economy ticking over.

That's right, they can't shut down, and they make up part of the 100% of the economy/ entire economy, so you can't make the statement 100% of the economy has shut down, because there has to be economic activity of input goods and services, to provide those essential final goods and services.

 

[Smithy7]

 

[Iwish]

There is now way there is only 20000 infected in China. They are hiding the real number and the WHO and other countries govt would be pretty sure they are but are too afraid to call them out on it.
Think about it their population is 1.4 billion
Singapore who are strict on this and everything have 18 cases in a population of about 5 mil.
So the percentage of citizens who have it is nearly the same for both countries.
Can't find the article but a journal in the US says he believes that the infected toll is closer to 1/2 a million in China. This wouldn't surprise me
I can't see the game going ahead.

 

[Janus]

That's right, they can't shut down, and they make up part of the 100% of the economy/ entire economy, so you can't make the statement 100% of the economy has shut down, because there has to be economic activity of input goods and services, to provide those essential final goods and services.

The world's oil production has to reduce by 20% because of this. You're sweating over semantics

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

This time of year China's manufacturing industry closes down and tourism industry is supposed to be booming. No different to Oz pre mid 1990's when we had a decent manufacturing base and Christmas to late January manufacturing businesses closed for holidays, (people took holidays along the coast) and machinery maintenance. It was common come late January some items weren't available in supermarkets because goods had sold out, and manufacturing hadn't cranked up to replace the empty shelves.

The coronavirus has smashed tourism but not manufacturing.

This ecommerce consulting website that works with businesses setting up in China talked about these issues in their 26th November 2019 article.

The Chinese New Year 2022: How it Importers Can Prevent Disaster

Learn how the Chinese New Year can lead to severe delays and quality issues, and how you can protect your ecommerce business.

www.chinaimportal.com

The Chinese New Year (CNY) of 2020 starts on Saturday, January 25th, 2020, which is earlier than most years, and officially lasts for 7 days. While many of us who work in Asia are painfully aware of the Chinese New Year, and the coming disruption to all production, many importers and Amazon sellers are caught completely off guard.

As if the rush to get your shipments in time for Christmas was not enough, you now have to make sure that your goods are ready well before your supplier closes the shop for CNY 2020. During this holiday, all factories are shut down, without exception.

While the official holiday only lasts for about a week, most factories are closed for an entire month, with disruptions lasting even longer.

This time of the year is especially risky for businesses importing seasonal products, such as outdoor furniture and swimwear.

The Chinese New Year 2022: How it Importers Can Prevent Disaster

Learn how the Chinese New Year can lead to severe delays and quality issues, and how you can protect your ecommerce business.

www.chinaimportal.com

And just like things changed in Oz in the 90's, things are starting to change in China

The general trend is that the CNY holiday is becoming shorter. Chinese manufacturers understand that this is a major disruption for both them and their customers. Many suppliers are also perfectly aware of competition from other countries in the region and how a month-long supply chain disruption is not exactly a big selling point. My best guess is that factories will limit their closure to around 2 weeks in the coming years.

They discuss the issues around these long CNY breaks for business owners.

1. Production is halted one or two weeks before the Chinese New Years Eve
While the Chinese New Year Eve is set on January 25th, 2020, all suppliers start to wind down operations one to two weeks in advance.

As such, the CNY puts a halt to mass production, and even sample orders, far earlier than many buyers anticipate. This is not always in your supplier’s direct control. One component and materials subcontractor closing doors a few days earlier can essentially result in an unexpected and early shutdown of the supply chain.

This partly explains why different companies close their doors on different dates. Get confirmation on their schedule well in advance to prevent delayed orders. However, administrative functions tend to be operational a week or two longer, than the production lines. As such, you can, at least, save some of the runways on sample development and contract negotiations, that may take place at this time.

2. Production is halted for a minimum of two weeks after the Chinese New Years Eve
While the official holiday is only lasting for roughly 5 working days, plus two weekends, most workers remain in their home provinces for an extra week or two.

This explains why most suppliers are not back in business until two, sometimes even three, weeks after the Chinese New Years’ Eve. You will have a hard time reaching any representatives, including the salespeople, on CNY eve and the following days. However, they will most likely be available to handle administrative tasks within 5 to 7 days. Don’t hesitate to contact them at this time frame.


3. Getting operations back to normal can take up to a month (or more)
Eventually, everything gets back to normal. Hopefully. The truth is that many manufacturers struggle to get back to a normal mode of operations in the weeks after the Chinese New Year. The primary reason for this being workers who simply don’t return to their former employers, without any prior announcement.

Depending on the number of workers departing in secret, it can cause severe disruptions across the supply chain. Finding, and training, a new batch of workers provides new challenges of its own. Skilled workers are, to a certain degree, replaced by rookies. This is one, of two reasons, why the risk of quality issues is at its peak right after the end of the Chinese New Year. Every trade takes its own time to master.
..........

 

[Janus]

China's exports only account for 18.24% of its GDP. Industry accounts for 40.7%.

81.76% is services, agriculture and manufacturing for domestic consumption.

If retail stores have been shut over the New Year period (major department stores and franchise chains are open over CNY), they will still have the inventory that they stored to see them through what they considered to be the busiest time of the year for them.

Even when the manufacturing starts up again, they won't need as many orders because 55% of demand is no longer there.

Imports for construction, like iron ore, copper and aluminium, will be fine because construction just starts right where it left off.

But manufacturing of consumption items from companies like Huawei and the like? They are going to take a hit. That's why every economist has revised China's GDP forecast down for this quarter.