Toast Collingwood - the fastest rebuild ever

[mcgarnacle]

For all the people saying we are lucky to have won a lot of close games, yet last year nobody was saying how unlucky we were to lose a lot of close games. Last year we lost 4 games by 10 points or less and two games by a single point, including a loss to a goal after the siren.

The reality is last year we were unlucky to be 17th - we finished with a percentage of 85% - compare with this years 17th.
This year the reverse is true and luck is going our way.

So really last year we were more like a 10th to 12th side and have improved a bit with a new coach, a good run with injuries for once and guys like N Daicos and we are now more of a 7th to 9th side. Not a rebuild and not the drastic.

Plenty of variables. Luck might be one. But was it luck for Collingwood that Howe slipped and fell inside the 50 or was it Bombers pressure? Was it luck that Jones missed the kick or an inability to convert under pressure? Was it luck Darcy Moore was free to run off the kick-in or bad defensive set up under pressure? Was it luck that Bianco found himself free or was it hard running and capitalising on Essendon's poor defensive set-up on the kick-in? Was it luck Elliott marked the ball between two players or the ability to separate from fatiguing Ambrose? And was it luck Elliott kicked the goal which Jones missed only a minute earlier?

Good teams take their opportunities, whether it's 6 goals up or a goal down. West Coast did this to Collingwood in the 2018 GF!

 

[Gavin Excell]

I was listening to Macraes press conference after the Essendon win.

He mentioned that his team puts a bit of time into practising / training for various scenarios including trailing with a minute left from the kick out

While luck plays a part there apparently is some method and now belief, in how they play final mins in a close game

 

[Madblue]

I think its reasonable to still be wary about us. Playing an older experienced team every week and lots of close wins with a low %. There are reasons why you can argue we are still at the start of the rebuild and 2022 is a bounce that may be followed by a fall

Still its been hell of a ride, Fly dong a great job, ND performing immediately above our lofty expectations, beating the Blues and Essendon twice so far and finals to play. Good year to be a Pie and I didnt expect that.

Regardless of what happens in Sept it's been a great season for the Pies

 

[dean33]

Out of interest what’s the lowest a premiership team has come from the previous season?

 

[OniAu]

I love how age is a measurement of success.

Whats Norths average age out of interest and how does it rank in the comp

 

[Dangerousfield]

Dead Cat Bounce. Wait till the old heads retire & they lose some of the close ones. See Hawks 2018.

Exactly. Had an easy draw courtesy of finishing 17th, managed to win basically all the close ones, many courtesy of Ginnivan goals from staged frees!

Percentage is the giveaway despite the soft draw.

Let's see what happens from here before we hail it a miracle rebuild.

 

[RonnieRaven]

A bit like when port got rozy butters and duursma
pies have done well in the last draft or two.
Add McRae and leppa they have bounced well.
I feel they have this year and next to maybe jag one like eagles 18 but if they don’t there’s a lot of older talent that will drop away after that and club legends are hard to cover especially if there’s no top ten picks over this year and next.
**** percentage awesome year for the pies surprised the hell out of me.

 

[Duskfire]

They aren't really rebuilding, are they? Prior to last year this is a team who had made finals the previous three seasons, including a grand final and a prelim. They clearly underperformed last year due to the coach losing the players. Are they doing well? Absolutely, they are doing much better than anyone could imagine. However, I wouldn't really call it a rebuild. Maybe a mini-one at best. If anything, they are doing what Geelong and Sydney have done and are doing and re-vitalising their team with younger players while changing up tactics.

 

[SuperSub17]

Out of interest what’s the lowest a premiership team has come from the previous season?

Richmond 2017 came from 13th.
Adelaide 97 12th
Geelong 07 10th
Melbourne 21 9th

They are the only 4 teams in history to come from lower than 8th.

Runners up are probably more interesting.
Melbourne 2000 14th
Collingwood 18 13th
Port 07 12th
Sydney 96 12th
Collingwood 77 12th (wooden spoon)
Carlton 99 11th
Melbourne 54 11th
St Kilda 97 10th
Footscray 61 10th
West Coast 15 9th
Collingwood 02 9th
Geelong 89 9th
Hawthorn 63 9th
Melbourne 46 9th

 

[SuperSub17]

Exactly. Had an easy draw courtesy of finishing 17th, managed to win basically all the close ones, many courtesy of Ginnivan goals from staged frees!

Percentage is the giveaway despite the soft draw.

Let's see what happens from here before we hail it a miracle rebuild.

An easy draw?

Our 5 double up opponents currently have on average 8.8 wins. The comp average is 8.76.

Might need to show your work on that one.

 

[OniAu]

Exactly. Had an easy draw courtesy of finishing 17th, managed to win basically all the close ones, many courtesy of Ginnivan goals from staged frees!

Percentage is the giveaway despite the soft draw.

Let's see what happens from here before we hail it a miracle rebuild.

Do you only watch Adelaide games out of interest?

 

[OniAu]

Who are all these old blokes that will suddenly drop off the perch ?

Pdndles, Sidey, Howe, Cox ? Feel like this is a massively overblown statement from people.

 

[Cyber_punk]

North finished bottom 4 in 2006, and then 3rd in 2007 after everyone thought they would win the spoon. Pies strike me as similar, fighting on a lot of spirit and maxing their potential with a mediocre %. If they can sustain this for a few more years then I think we can call it a proper rebuild. But these types of years happen to galvanized teams who have the footy world against them.

 

[HairyO]

"EVER" in these greatest ever threads on bigfooty is defined as anything from 2010 onwards it seems

For Richmond supporters its 2017 onwards.

 

[NetworkNerd]

"EVER" in these greatest ever threads on bigfooty is defined as anything from 2010 onwards it seems

Thats ok. Look where the 2010 wooden spooners finished in 2011

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Dead Cat Bounce. Wait till the old heads retire & they lose some of the close ones. See Hawks 2018.

Most ridiculous throwaway line used that I can think of.

Could have said the same for Geelong after their ageing list missed finals in 2015. Yet here we are. Again.

"Dead cat bounce" is a vacuous comment.

 

[old55]

Eleven players remain from the side that lost the GF by a kick just 4 years ago. Hawthorn had 9 from the 2008 flag that played in the 2013 flag.

 

[JM#1]

Exactly. Had an easy draw courtesy of finishing 17th, managed to win basically all the close ones, many courtesy of Ginnivan goals from staged frees!

Percentage is the giveaway despite the soft draw.

Let's see what happens from here before we hail it a miracle rebuild.

This seems like a completely rational and level headed comment

 

[demondavey]

Clearly Buckley and Ed were stymying the club. Club had been dragged through the muck with the off field business and it’s pretty clear they weren’t performing on the field because of it. They’ve bought into McCrae and they are playing with a lot of flair and dash. JDG isn’t doing much either, if they get him and Grundy off the books they’ll have a heap of cash this year to pick up replacements for ageing stars.

Few concerns with the age profile, but think they’ll address that with the trade period if, as expected and rightly so, they shift JDG and Grundy. Hopper and Taranto both looking like moving and I reckon one of them will be at Collingwood next year. The big challenge is when they lose ageing stars. Pendlebury, Howe, Sidebottom, Elliott, Mihocek (he must be almost 30?), Cox (not great but a reasonable forward).

It might simply be that they right a few wrongs of 2018 and win it this year. I am not surprised to be honest given they’re still fielding a very similar list to the 18 GF team and they’re getting plenty from Moore, Quaynor, Ginnivan, Cameron etc. They’ll be dangerous in finals. Anyone suggesting otherwise is an idiot.

 

[beerbandit]

Pies fans claim to be in a rebuild to despite the fact they have the bulk of the 2018 grand final list and are the 6th oldest team in the comp , they'll be the '2021 Essendon' of this year, wont win a final and drop out of the 8 next year.

Well lucky it’s this year and not next year

 

[Grockadoc]

Not a rebuild. Just a competent coach.

 

[demondavey]

Grand finalists in 2018, Almost grand finalists in 2019, semi finalists in 2020, 17th in 2021 and now finalists in 2022.
Apparently playing Nick Daicos, Ginnivan and Henry constitutes a rebuild.

Looking at that though. It’s one average season in 5, so would we be surprised if they won the flag or made it?

I personally think it’ll be;
Geelong v Sydney
Geelong v Collingwood
Sydney v Collingwood

One of those combinations for the GF. I am not including Melbourne as I just think they’re way off their best but if we beat Fremantle then Collingwood I’ll reassess them.

 

[augie]

Pies fans claim to be in a rebuild to despite the fact they have the bulk of the 2018 grand final list and are the 6th oldest team in the comp , they'll be the '2021 Essendon' of this year, wont win a final and drop out of the 8 next year.

Might want to brush up on the definition of "bulk".

 

[augie]

Twelve players remain from the side that lost the GF by a kick just 4 years ago. Hawthorn had 9 from the 2008 flag that played in the 2013 flag.

Eleven

 

[augie]

Not a rebuild. Just a competent coach.

Not a competent coach, but just about the best coaching group in the competition.