Draft Expert Davo-27's 2024 Draft Thread

[KrispyKreme]

In the way he moves and physique he reminds me of his cousin Sam Walsh, he is a better mark than Walsh and not as high an accumulator, he likes to kick more than handball, will he get to the level of Sam Walsh?, idk, I can't see into his brain and see if he has the competitive or determined or driven personality to get the best out of himself.



My rankings are a mix of who I like and where I think they go draft day, I think he will go high, FOS will likely go top 5 like Wardlaw, I think because of his numbers and media hype Jagga Smith will likely go pick 1, but I disagree with that assessment, I wouldn't have Jagga top 5, he is too small framed and his agility wont help him as much at the top level, i also think he butchers the ball too much imo, but his stats are influential (avg 35 disposals) and as I said my rankings are a mix of where I rate them and where I think they go, in the past I have rated players I have openly questioned/disliked in their likely draft position, because fighting against the tide is pointless and no one remembers anyway.

It's unlikely FOS injuries affect him long term, only having 2 champs games 1 where he played well and 1 where he struggled for his calibre of player, I wish we had more evidence he was the clear best player, but we don't and so pick 1 is open to a handful of players this year.

These are the reason I get concerned with Jagga particularly his first Nationals game this year, racked up the possessions but moved pill a total of 50 metres that is concerning in my eyes. Has questionable decision making at times. Not a great kick compared to Daicos. I personally want FOS, maybe it’s biased due to having lived in Koroit myself. But the way he plays the moves he makes I feel like we should be all in. The injuries aren’t as bad as an Achilles, ACL or a foot fracture.

 

[briztoon]

The “media hype” is mostly driven by draft specific journo’s. Twomey, the RMC journos, and draft watchers, like those who do the Craft of the Draft podcast.

They all watch a lot of junior footy.

Pretty much the same as you, or even more.

Even the newspapers and ESPN have journos who follow the CTL close enough, get to games and talk to recruiters, to have enough knowledge of the top kids and depth of the draft.

It’s ok to have a different opinion and rankings of kids, but it’s pretty disrespectful to talk about “media hype” and try and set yourself apart and above others who are producing paid content.

 

[Pomsta]

Won't someone think of the short fat children.

Somebody has to make up the cheersquad.

 

[Giant Strides]

Somebody has to make up the cheersquad.

 

[Pomsta]

Geez, I don't like mine much.

 

[blaisee]

The “media hype” is mostly driven by draft specific journo’s. Twomey, the RMC journos, and draft watchers, like those who do the Craft of the Draft podcast.

They all watch a lot of junior footy.

Pretty much the same as you, or even more.

Even the newspapers and ESPN have journos who follow the CTL close enough, get to games and talk to recruiters, to have enough knowledge of the top kids and depth of the draft.

It’s ok to have a different opinion and rankings of kids, but it’s pretty disrespectful to talk about “media hype” and try and set yourself apart and above others who are producing paid content.

Settle petal

This is his thread after all , chill

These are just opinions

 

[Davo-27]

Oakleigh
Sandringham
Northern
Calder

through to the quarter finals from the Vic metro zone, Eastern and Western eliminated

Geelong
+ the 3 winners of the country/tassie zone games will also be through (games are played sunday)

 

[Yoda_]

Oakleigh
Sandringham
Northern
Calder

through to the quarter finals from the Vic metro zone, Eastern and Western eliminated

Geelong
+ the 3 winners of the country/tassie zone games will also be through (games are played sunday)

Calder lost today though?

 

[Davo-27]

Calder lost today though?

Highest rank loser in metro zone

 

[Yoda_]

Highest rank loser in metro zone

thank you sir

 

[Davo-27]

CTL Quarterfinals. (Port Melb is such a great inner suburban small ground, rivals Ikon Park imo)

Sat - Port Melb from 11:30am
Geelong v GWV
Dandenong v Gippsland

Sun - Port Melb from 11am
Sandy v Calder
Northern v Oakleigh

 

[EDFL follower]

CTL Quarterfinals. (Port Melb is such a great inner suburban small ground, rivals Ikon Park imo)

Sat - Port Melb from 11:30am
Geelong v GWV
Dandenong v Gippsland

Sun - Port Melb from 11am
Sandy v Calder
Northern v Oakleigh

Hey Davo. Why do they play the 18s as knockout finals and no advantage to top teams like every other competition does?

 

[Davo-27]

Hey Davo. Why do they play the 18s as knockout finals and no advantage to top teams like every other competition does?

Probably because 2/3 of the season is played by only half the squad seeing as school football is their priority as well as rep games, so the season is somewhat compromised, therefore a knock out system rather than rewarding season rankings makes more sense.

The only advantage that was given was top ranked loser Calder and top ranked team Geelong...

 

[StonesThrow]

You misunderstand completely what I'm trying to say.

I'm not talking about feeling sorry for people who are short.

What I'm saying is once you have lists that are 190+ we automatically reduce the pool of players that can ever make it.

Smaller pool, less to choose from, less quality. In WA colts teams struggle to find players above 195cm. So they make do with 190cm rucks.

Some of the best players are in th 170-177cm range quite naturally but will never be considered for an AFL list. There just isn't a large enough pool of 190-205cm players to make the sport specialist.

Maybe if we had 340 mil population like the USA then yes.

Your logic doesn't hold.

If there is a smaller pool and the quality diminishes, then they will start picking shorter players at higher quality and the pool increases. Essentially, the pool of players has nothing to do with height.

 

[Davo-27]

What clubs want and what they have are 2 very different things, every club would want athletic agile 190cm+ players, but they are rare and most of the best players are still 175-185cm so they can't ignore the best talent for a pipe dream, I don't see your 190cm+ dream actually working, too many of those players fail to make it, there will always be players 175cm-190cm who are dominant and too good to ignore.

If you're under 180cm some clubs will slightly undervalue them, but its usually a mistake that some refuse to learn.

 

[Futbolista]

What clubs want and what they have are 2 very different things, every club would want athletic agile 190cm+ players, but they are rare and most of the best players are still 175-185cm so they can't ignore the best talent for a pipe dream, I don't see your 190cm+ dream actually working, too many of those players fail to make it, there will always be players 175cm-190cm who are dominant and too good to ignore.

If you're under 180cm some clubs will slightly undervalue them, but its usually a mistake that some refuse to learn.

Ok mate......I'll give it a rethink and hope for the best.....you know me after all these years........I want the best for our sport

 

[The_General#1]

i thought i would do a new top 60 for this years draft, i still dont think theres an elite player although statistically Jagga Smith is elite, but his actually play and the eye test doesnt stand up as well which gives me doubt, the depth seems strong and there are 20 other names i could mention as possible draftees, i have gone back to my original number 1 pick, i have the most faith in him becoming a good player, so here it is

September Top 60

1. Finn O'Sullivan - Oakleigh - 182cm
2. Jagga Smith - Oakleigh - 181cm
3. Levi Ashcroft - Sandringham (Bris FS) - 179cm
4. Leonardo Lombard - GCS A - 178cm
5. Harry Armstrong - Sand - 194cm
6. Sid Draper - Sth Adel - 180cm
7. Josh Smillie - Eastern - 194cm
8. Tobie Travaglia - Bendigo - 187cm
9. Luke Trainor - Sandringham - 194cm
10. Taj Hotton - Sandringham - 182cm (acl injury)
11. Sam Lalor - GWV - 187cm
12. Harvey Langford - Dandenong - 190cm
13. Jobe Shanahan - Bendigo - 194cm
14. Joe Berry - Murray - 180cm
15. Isaac Kako - Calder (Ess NGA) - 175cm
16. Murphy Reid - Sandringham - 180cm
17. Xavier Lindsay - Gippsland - 183cm
18. Ben Camporeale - Glenlg (Carl FS) - 186cm
19. Kayle Gerreyn - West Perth - 199cm
20. Cooper Hynes - Dandenong - 190cm
21. Tyler Welsh - WWT (Adel FS)- 191cm
22. Harry O'Farrell - Calder - 196cm
23. Jonty Faull - GWV - 195cm
24. Josh Murphy - Murray - 190cm
25. Bo Allan - Peel - 191cm
26. Thomas Sims - Northern - 199cm
27. Xavier Ivisic - Geelong - 180cm
28. Luke Urquhart - East Frem - 190cm
29. Jack Whitlock - Murray - 200cm
30. Christian Moraes - Eastern - 183cm
31. Malakai Champion - Subiaco (WCE NGA) - 172cm
32. Matt Whitlock - Murray - 200cm
33. Alex Dodson - Sth Adel - 203cm
34. Evan Bradley - Nth Adel - 174cm
35. Charlie Nicholls - Cent Dist 197cm
36. Alix Tauru - Gippsland - 191cm
37. Jack Ough - GWV - 194cm
38. Hugh Boxshall - Clare - 187cm
39. Sam Marshall - Sandringham (Bris A) - 185cm
40. Harrison Oliver - Sandringham - 181cm
41. Jasper Alger - Oakleigh -182cm
42. Tom Gross - Oakleigh - 181cm
43. Lucas Camporeale - Glenlg (Carl FS) - 185cm
44. Hamish Davis - Clare - 190cm
45. Jesse Dattoli - Northern - 179cm
46. Benny Barrett - Sth Adel (Port NGA) - 175cm
47. Archer Day-Wicks - Bendigo - 186cm
48. Oliver Depaoli-Kubank - Tas - 178cm
49. Adrian Cole - Sandringham (StK NGA) - 195cm
50. Doug Kerr - Oakleigh (acl injury/Coll NGA) - 192cm
51. Rhys Unwin - GWV - 178cm
52. Josaia Delana - GWS A - 174cm
53. Zak Johnson - Northern - 185cm
54. Phoenix Hargrave - Sth Adel - 182cm
55. Patrick Retschko - Oakleigh - 186cm
56. Lucas McInerney - Northern - 180cm
57. Josh Dolan - Sandringham - 177cm
58. Charlie Burke - Subiaco - 183cm
59. Logan Smith - GWS A - 204cm
60. Angus Clarke - Glenlg - 188cm

Riley Bice should be in the top 60 imo. Will be a similar story to Shaun Managh. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see some more VFL and 19yr olds taken that havent been playing CTL. Some good kids/players in the VFL.

 

[Davo-27]

Riley Bice should be in the top 60 imo. Will be a similar story to Shaun Managh. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see some more VFL and 19yr olds taken that havent been playing CTL. Some good kids/players in the VFL.

I don't cover the state leagues, so I wouldn't know, Geelong recruiters are the masters of the state league pick ups

 

[Davo-27]

I know Richmond fans and Cal Twomey rate Harvey Langford pretty highly, I wonder if he has some inside knowledge on Richmond recruiters being keen on him? I wonder what the odds are on him being the surprise pick 1?

 

[richoatthedisco]

I know Richmond fans and Cal Twomey rate Harvey Langford pretty highly, I wonder if he has some inside knowledge on Richmond recruiters being keen on him? I wonder what the odds are on him being the surprise pick 1?

2000-1

 

[Ysaye]

I know Richmond fans and Cal Twomey rate Harvey Langford pretty highly, I wonder if he has some inside knowledge on Richmond recruiters being keen on him? I wonder what the odds are on him being the surprise pick 1?

Considering modern drafting practices which tend to prioritize consistency and leadership, Langford is the only challenge to Jagga Smith for the no.1 pick IMO.

 

[The_General#1]

I know Richmond fans and Cal Twomey rate Harvey Langford pretty highly, I wonder if he has some inside knowledge on Richmond recruiters being keen on him? I wonder what the odds are on him being the surprise pick 1?

It’s only a surprise to those that wouldn’t take him at pick 1. The kid has bont traits. I would take him at 1. Jagga is going to be a star as well but I prefer the height and bigger body that Langford offers. I haven’t seen Jagga take any big grabs like Langford. Jagga is quicker and has more agility atm. But Langfords growth from last yr to this year has been significant. Hes got a heap of upside. IMO more than Jagga.

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

i thought i would do a new top 60 for this years draft, i still dont think theres an elite player although statistically Jagga Smith is elite, but his actually play and the eye test doesnt stand up as well which gives me doubt, the depth seems strong and there are 20 other names i could mention as possible draftees, i have gone back to my original number 1 pick, i have the most faith in him becoming a good player, so here it is

September Top 60

1. Finn O'Sullivan - Oakleigh - 182cm
2. Jagga Smith - Oakleigh - 181cm
3. Levi Ashcroft - Sandringham (Bris FS) - 179cm
4. Leonardo Lombard - GCS A - 178cm
5. Harry Armstrong - Sand - 194cm
6. Sid Draper - Sth Adel - 180cm
7. Josh Smillie - Eastern - 194cm
8. Tobie Travaglia - Bendigo - 187cm
9. Luke Trainor - Sandringham - 194cm
10. Taj Hotton - Sandringham - 182cm (acl injury)
11. Sam Lalor - GWV - 187cm
12. Harvey Langford - Dandenong - 190cm
13. Jobe Shanahan - Bendigo - 194cm
14. Joe Berry - Murray - 180cm
15. Isaac Kako - Calder (Ess NGA) - 175cm
16. Murphy Reid - Sandringham - 180cm
17. Xavier Lindsay - Gippsland - 183cm
18. Ben Camporeale - Glenlg (Carl FS) - 186cm
19. Kayle Gerreyn - West Perth - 199cm
20. Cooper Hynes - Dandenong - 190cm
21. Tyler Welsh - WWT (Adel FS)- 191cm
22. Harry O'Farrell - Calder - 196cm
23. Jonty Faull - GWV - 195cm
24. Josh Murphy - Murray - 190cm
25. Bo Allan - Peel - 191cm
26. Thomas Sims - Northern - 199cm
27. Xavier Ivisic - Geelong - 180cm
28. Luke Urquhart - East Frem - 190cm
29. Jack Whitlock - Murray - 200cm
30. Christian Moraes - Eastern - 183cm
31. Malakai Champion - Subiaco (WCE NGA) - 172cm
32. Matt Whitlock - Murray - 200cm
33. Alex Dodson - Sth Adel - 203cm
34. Evan Bradley - Nth Adel - 174cm
35. Charlie Nicholls - Cent Dist 197cm
36. Alix Tauru - Gippsland - 191cm
37. Jack Ough - GWV - 194cm
38. Hugh Boxshall - Clare - 187cm
39. Sam Marshall - Sandringham (Bris A) - 185cm
40. Harrison Oliver - Sandringham - 181cm
41. Jasper Alger - Oakleigh -182cm
42. Tom Gross - Oakleigh - 181cm
43. Lucas Camporeale - Glenlg (Carl FS) - 185cm
44. Hamish Davis - Clare - 190cm
45. Jesse Dattoli - Northern - 179cm
46. Benny Barrett - Sth Adel (Port NGA) - 175cm
47. Archer Day-Wicks - Bendigo - 186cm
48. Oliver Depaoli-Kubank - Tas - 178cm
49. Adrian Cole - Sandringham (StK NGA) - 195cm
50. Doug Kerr - Oakleigh (acl injury/Coll NGA) - 192cm
51. Rhys Unwin - GWV - 178cm
52. Josaia Delana - GWS A - 174cm
53. Zak Johnson - Northern - 185cm
54. Phoenix Hargrave - Sth Adel - 182cm
55. Patrick Retschko - Oakleigh - 186cm
56. Lucas McInerney - Northern - 180cm
57. Josh Dolan - Sandringham - 177cm
58. Charlie Burke - Subiaco - 183cm
59. Logan Smith - GWS A - 204cm
60. Angus Clarke - Glenlg - 188cm

Has been suggested, Saints are heavily into Langford & Travaglia, so your list provides that opportunity. For a list need I think we should take Trainor with one of our 1st picks & he's best rated tall by some, but maybe we could snare a tall later on & we do have Cole as NGA. I like Lindsay & especially Oliver for their elite kicking skills & good that you have Boxshall highly rated, starting to gain notice. Hynes & Lalor appeal as mid. bulls too, but question marks on whether they will project as mids or be forwards.

 

[Mutineer]

Has been suggested, Saints are heavily into Langford & Travaglia, so your list provides that opportunity. For a list need I think we should take Trainor with one of our 1st picks & he's best rated tall by some, but maybe we could snare a tall later on & we do have Cole as NGA. I like Lindsay & especially Oliver for their elite kicking skills & good that you have Boxshall highly rated, starting to gain notice. Hynes & Lalor appeal as mid. bulls too, but question marks on whether they will project as mids or be forwards.

Hynes I wouldn't be too sure about but Lalor WILL play midfield, with him his forward talent is just another string to his bow. Only reason he's played more forward this season is a fitness thing coming off virtually no preseason rehabbing a hip issue and then a foot niggle.
Been playing catch up fitness wise all season, currently rehabbing a hamstring that he did early in the game last week. Soldiered on with it heavily strapped to finish the game at full forward but could hardly raise a gallop.
In hindsight probably a mistake by the Rebels coaches and fitness staff. Hence he was spotted on the sidelines at yesterday's game.

 

[Mutineer]

Lalor not on the teamsheet for yesterday's game?

He did his hamstring early in the 2nd quarter last week, season over unless he makes a magical recovery. See above in the post you quoted.