Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Dunny82]

KM, if a handful of players from your top 10 and top 20 weren't going to live up to their potential who would you consider to be more likely than the others to not make it and carve out an AFL career for themselves?

 

[OB11]

Saw this article - interpreted it to be that our 1st rd pick for 2017 would be protected unless we get a bid on an academy player before our 2017 1st rd bid

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-18/fatherson-picks-could-put-pies-into-draft-points-deficit

 

[Knightmare]

Watching Mcluggage reminds me of Tom Scully, would that be a fair comparison in regards to the type of player he will evolve into at afl level?

He has some Scully, but just is a better and more damaging ball user.

Hi KM, sorry one more.

Have GC ballsed up their draft by not holding onto a couple of second round picks to cover a Scheer bid?

Correct me if I'm wrong but they only have 9 points to offer if Scheer gets bid on after pick 10. They will be forced to go into debt. On my read if he gets picked and matched at 18 then it'll be around a 750 point downgrade next year, the equivalent of a downgrade from 4 to 10 next year. Or 1 to 3, 6 to 17.... in the second round (say pick 20) they're looking at a 30+ place downgrade

It'd be a really bad look to finally get someone through their academy and not match the bid? A bid in the 2nd round might not hurt too much with their future picks but a first round pick is a different story. Could you see them passing on Scheer?

I wonder why no one hunted an upgrade to 10 for another 1st rounder and a few decent late picks to cover Scheer...? Swans should have been onto it 19+46+49 for 10. That would have covered a bid anywhere except for 20 or 21.... Anyway, can you see them passing on Scheer

It does surprise me that GC don't have a late second round pick or something like that to ensure they get Scheer. But in saying that it just means they go into deficit next year in order to take him.

I see it as unlikely Gold Coast pass. They need more midfielders after having such a shallow midfield this year and losing Prestia and O'Meara this offseason. Scheer is good. So I don't see why they'd pass.

Hello Knightmare, not asking who will be the best players from this draft year, but who in your opinion are the most likely to have long AFL careers - the safe bets, low risk/high rewards?

McCluggage and McGrath are the safest best for long careers given production and quality of games.

KM, I strongly believe that saints need to build their outside mid depth. Which outside mids do you feel would be available around both the 23 pick and 36 pick mark that would suit the saints? Can you see any sliders on the horizon for pick 23? If the saints are able to pick up a quality outside mid with pick 23, who would represent good value at pick 36 regardless of position (i.e someone like Poholke)?

Some general outside mids in that range could be Jordan Ridley, Alex Villis, Isaac Cumming among others. Poholke could go in that range and be another option as more a strong bodied, strong marking utility.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, if a handful of players from your top 10 and top 20 weren't going to live up to their potential who would you consider to be more likely than the others to not make it and carve out an AFL career for themselves?

When considering potential busts my eye always goes to those with mild numbers, those who don't win much contested ball and those who lack a best position. That's what history if you go back and look through past drafts tells us.

Todd Marshall for production, Shai Bolton for contested ball and Jack Scrimshaw for a lack of a best position could be some pretty easy examples of some who could be busts from my October power rankings who project as top 20 or so choices.

Saw this article - interpreted it to be that our 1st rd pick for 2017 would be protected unless we get a bid on an academy player before our 2017 1st rd bid

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-18/fatherson-picks-could-put-pies-into-draft-points-deficit

With father son and academy picks it is all about that selection after your pick - so it's always that next one and should work the same regarding going into deficit. If Gold Coast finish lower than the bid after considering the discount (which will happen) Gold Coast will be fine.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Knightmare with Liam Ryan recording a 10.1 beep test, does
that mean he may slide to the rookie draft or very late nd pick?

 

[BoydOHboyd]

Hey Knightmare,

Not 2016 draft related, but have you heard of Corey Marjanovic, a promising young lad from Wangaratta? Let me know what info you've got, he looks like a potential top 10 pick!

 

[Dan87]

I feel as though he would be a better midfielder than Rotham, and a better defender fwiw. I don't rate SPS as highly as some do but if you're looking for a player with more attributes at an early pick Logue would also be preferable. I just feel as though I've seen enough with his ability to free his arms at stoppages, run and overlap on the outside, deliver the ball by foot and impact overhead to suggest he'd be able to make a career as a backman or as a mid that can rest forward to good effect. Just haven't seen him used in that role much at all. Either way looking at him as a prospect there's a hell of a lot to like.

Reckon Swans take him. You obviously rate his ceiling?

I've seen some highlights and what not. What's is his finishing ability in the forward half? Capable of scoreboard impact?

 

[Mr Bombastic]

Do you think Callum Brown will be bid on before Collingwoods first pick? Disaster if he is.

 

[Fyfe2Shenton]

Do you have any thoughts on Lachlan Cameron Knightmare?

Looked a likely type from the video I saw of him, and missed most of the Champs due to injury. Seems to play a bit like Griffen Logue, but will come much cheaper. Do you think a club might rookie him?

Thanks.

 

[JAMES_B_101]

Reckon Swans take him. You obviously rate his ceiling?

I've seen some highlights and what not. What's is his finishing ability in the forward half? Capable of scoreboard impact?

Whilst he hasn't been used up forward a lot, you'd think that with his jump/endurance/kicking skills he'd be able to rest forward and have a positive impact of playing as a mid. Whilst I don't believe he has a standout forward trait like elite speed or contested marking I think he's got a good enough range of skills/athletic attributes to be able to develop a nice forward craft.

 

[bmaurizio]

Hi Knightmare, really appreciate your time and effort in sharing yr insights.
Whom do you think the Blues will snare with pick 5.
Many of our supporter are resolute on Will Brodie should he fall there. I not convinced about his kicking ? What do reckon ? Will he have the same celling level as the other top 10 picks?
Thanks

 

[ApprenticeTigr]

Hey KM

What's the chance Sam Powell-Pepper falls to Richmond at 27?

If not, who are some other guys the Tiges could take at that spot?

 

[manny100]

Hi KM, I think Gold Coast have 3 2017 2nd round draft picks from the Hawks, Freo and the Tigers. A 2nd round bid for Scheer can be met in deficit by one of those future 2nd round picks. That is they can match with no points this year go into deficit and 'pay' next year with one of those future picks and still be in a good position in next years draft. Correct me if I am wrong.

 

[CatRiot]

Hey KM,

Do you have any information on Sam Simpson (F/Son prospect for the Cats) currently at Falcons? Any information you have on his strengths/weaknesses, player comparison would be appreciated. Also, do you think the Cats will draft him? do you think they will need to match any bids and if so, what round selection do you thin he would slip to?

Also, which players do you think the Cats are likely to go for with pick 24?

Cheers

 

[briztoon]

Hi KM, I think Gold Coast have 3 2017 2nd round draft picks from the Hawks, Freo and the Tigers. A 2nd round bid for Scheer can be met in deficit by one of those future 2nd round picks. That is they can match with no points this year go into deficit and 'pay' next year with one of those future picks and still be in a good position in next years draft. Correct me if I am wrong.

That is correct. The points will come off their highest second round pick. But the main point of discussion is if a bid for Scheer comes in the first round, because then points owed come off GC's first round pick next draft.

 

[manny100]

That is correct. The points will come off their highest second round pick. But the main point of discussion is if a bid for Scheer comes in the first round, because then points owed come off GC's first round pick next draft.

Thanks, with all those picks next year GC likely gambling on a second round bid perhaps because that is where they value him. If not I guess they will let him slip or they will have to trade for a high 1st rounder next year. Hard to see them passing on quality Academy kids - not a good look. Wait and see on this.

 

[Beak_A]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Saucy]

Hey Knightmare, could Florent slip to pick 20? Also could Essendon bid on Sproule with pick 28 and will GWS absolutely match that bid?

 

[briztoon]

Hi KM, I think Gold Coast have 3 2017 2nd round draft picks from the Hawks, Freo and the Tigers. A 2nd round bid for Scheer can be met in deficit by one of those future 2nd round picks. That is they can match with no points this year go into deficit and 'pay' next year with one of those future picks and still be in a good position in next years draft. Correct me if I am wrong.

Just a little thought. If Brisbane bid on Bowes at pick 3 and GC match with pick 4. GC will have 247 points left over to go towards matching a bid on Scheer and lessening the draft points deficit you will carry in to the 2017 draft.

 

[bobs head soup]

KM, earlier on you had Jordan Gallucci ranked highly (top 10ish at one point), but now outside top 30 despite good combine results. What are your concerns?

 

[Schtinker]

I know its a bit early but next years draft has been described as a Talls Draft. Are the potential crop from next year KPF or KPD and how deep does the draft go? Are the KPF and KPD of a good height eg 194 -198cm or are they borderline 191 -193cm?

In regards to West Coast would we be better of taking someone like Marshall to replace Kennedy in this years draft, if he were available, or would we be better off waiting to look for a replacement next year?

 

[CRIPPA9]

Hi KM,

Watching highlights and a kid named Reece Piper caught my eye. Haven't heard much about him in the media or on this thread. Looks to be a pacey, silky half-back who likes to run and has a better than average kick.

Your thoughts on him, how you think he'll develop and his draft range?
Thanks a lot mate.

 

[foj1]

KM what do you think of English's marking ability? He looked quite average for a tall bloke. Also I'm not sure English has the natural forward instincts that would allow him to push forward.

Comparisons have been made to Cox but I'm just not seeing them.

Cox at 18 was terrible.
He is ahead of the curve.
But Cox obviously turned into a champion.

 

[Footytalk124]

Hey KM, looking forward to your phantom drafts, just wondering what pick and club would be interested in Lachlan Murphy and Patrick Lipinski, been watching Knights games closely this season and Murphy was a stand out, Lipinski also recived a national combine.
Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare with Liam Ryan recording a 10.1 beep test, does
that mean he may slide to the rookie draft or very late nd pick?

Liam Ryan I don't feel was ever expected to go early.

Still think he is a fair national draft chance.

Can't imagine anyone thought he was an endurance athlete.

Hey Knightmare,

Not 2016 draft related, but have you heard of Corey Marjanovic, a promising young lad from Wangaratta? Let me know what info you've got, he looks like a potential top 10 pick!

Not a name I'm familiar with.

What age is he?

Do you think Callum Brown will be bid on before Collingwoods first pick? Disaster if he is.

Probably receives a second round bid somewhere. Unclear exactly where. Collingwood's first pick is probably safe I'm predicting.

Do you have any thoughts on Lachlan Cameron Knightmare?

Looked a likely type from the video I saw of him, and missed most of the Champs due to injury. Seems to play a bit like Griffen Logue, but will come much cheaper. Do you think a club might rookie him?

Thanks.

Rookie chance but not certainty as is the case with all state combine invites.

I've liked the look of him through the midfield. Nice height/size and can win the contested ball.

On my extended draft board I have Cameron inside my top 40 power rankings, so he is one I've really liked the look of from those games I've seen. But my power rankings don't correlate with that of AFL clubs.

Hi Knightmare, really appreciate your time and effort in sharing yr insights.
Whom do you think the Blues will snare with pick 5.
Many of our supporter are resolute on Will Brodie should he fall there. I not convinced about his kicking ? What do reckon ? Will he have the same celling level as the other top 10 picks?
Thanks

Brodie is in the mix at 5 and a good choice if there. A potential compliment to Cripps going forward and someone good enough to take some of the burden off him if picked by the Blues.

His kicking can be good at times. He wins it at stoppages in good positions with space that can allow him get off some dangerous kicks forward into the forward 50m. He can under pressure feel rushed and find it harder to execute though.

Overall a capable and more than good enough but not outstanding kick with his decision making under pressure more what he can struggle with.

Hey KM

What's the chance Sam Powell-Pepper falls to Richmond at 27?

If not, who are some other guys the Tiges could take at that spot?

Powell-Pepper may be available in the 20s but is expected to go earlier than pick 27.

Will be posting my phantom draft on ESPN on Wednesday I'm hoping for and will cover the talents who I expect pick by pick to feature inside the first two rounds of the draft.

Hi KM, I think Gold Coast have 3 2017 2nd round draft picks from the Hawks, Freo and the Tigers. A 2nd round bid for Scheer can be met in deficit by one of those future 2nd round picks. That is they can match with no points this year go into deficit and 'pay' next year with one of those future picks and still be in a good position in next years draft. Correct me if I am wrong.

I'm understanding the same (albeit learning myself on the fly with the rules new and having never been used in this way with no clubs going into deficit before).

Hey Knightmare, could Florent slip to pick 20? Also could Essendon bid on Sproule with pick 28 and will GWS absolutely match that bid?

I'm not expecting Florent to be there at 20. He probably goes closer to pick 10.

Essendon could bid on Sproule with pick 28. That would not surprise me at all if Essendon or another club looking for a key position player around that point bid on he and Macreadie for that matter.

GWS probably match bids for both players given some offseason KPP losses and given they like to stockpile talls and use them as trade assets down the track. Always worth a bidding though if they're the top rated player on your draft board at that pick.

KM, earlier on you had Jordan Gallucci ranked highly (top 10ish at one point), but now outside top 30 despite good combine results. What are your concerns?

I liked the look of Gallucci for a period of the season but have since dropped him on the back of inconsistent performances, lower than expected numbers and inconsistent kicking that wasn't as good as I thought it was.

I know its a bit early but next years draft has been described as a Talls Draft. Are the potential crop from next year KPF or KPD and how deep does the draft go? Are the KPF and KPD of a good height eg 194 -198cm or are they borderline 191 -193cm?

In regards to West Coast would we be better of taking someone like Marshall to replace Kennedy in this years draft, if he were available, or would we be better off waiting to look for a replacement next year?

Next year there are some KPPs within the "normal" height ranges but very early draft there are several of genuine ruck height (2m+) who play key forward and ruck.

West Coast may be able to find a replacement next year, but it would likely depend where the club is picking. Unless you have a top 10 pick there is no guarantee you can get your key forward.

I'd say WCE should consider Marshall and take him on his own merits if the club rate him and feel he is good enough to succeed Kennedy.

Dynamics in drafts often on draft day look different to how they look a year out from the draft.

This year is a great example, looking not dissimilar to how next year is looking with Luke Strnadica and Jeremy Goddard as key forwards and ruckmen respectively looked like potential top 10 selections and may now go undrafted.

Hi KM,

Watching highlights and a kid named Reece Piper caught my eye. Haven't heard much about him in the media or on this thread. Looks to be a pacey, silky half-back who likes to run and has a better than average kick.

Your thoughts on him, how you think he'll develop and his draft range?
Thanks a lot mate.

State combine invite. Has acceleration and is a pretty good kick.

There are a lot of potential back flankers in this draft so lots of competition will be the challenge with the depth at his position. Given this late/rookie possible if picked.

Hey KM, looking forward to your phantom drafts, just wondering what pick and club would be interested in Lachlan Murphy and Patrick Lipinski, been watching Knights games closely this season and Murphy was a stand out, Lipinski also recived a national combine.
Cheers

Murphy some interest late/rookie. Have heard Richmond are one of the clubs who have spoken to him.

Lipinski may feature late second round onwards and is a probable national draft choice. Unsure who specifically is keen.