Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Michael Jezz]

Knightmare why is SPS ranked so highly and rumoured to go at pick 5? Could you comment on the following

-neither inside or outside and doesnt carry the football despite having great evasive skills

-no signs of improvement over 2016

- not a high possession winner

 

[avishka5]

I agree on English so I don't understand why so many people are wanting to see him gone in the first round



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Im not a huge fan on english but his mobility and skills for a big guys stood out. I know people compared his kicking to cox but i thought its better. However, i was dissapointed with his ruck work and overhead marking. Im not sure he will be elite ever.

 

[Sonsofthescray]

Not sure if many of you have seen this after last years draft! but Knightmare's had the best hit rate of all AFL draft experts.

Hopefully you can be number 1 again this year KM! Keep up the great work.

https://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/2015/11/

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Who are the 3 Consensuses?

 

[54dreamsalive]

Knightmare your the man

This is the most interesting draft in 10 years not even God could pick after 8...

English from pick 9 to 22
Venables from pick 9 to 20
Sympkin from 11-to 22
Hayward pick 13-25
Lougie pick 9-20
Marshall pick 10-22
Battle pick 12-25
Bolton pick 11-25
Florent pick 11-22
Scheer pick 10-22
Peteri-Seton pick 6-17
Crimshaw 11-20
Drew pick 16-29
Powell-pepper 16-28
Mutch 15-30
Scharemburg 15-30
Witherden-11-25
Berry 15-30

So after round 8 there are 18 players I believe could become A graders and thats why this is a magic draft..Good luck Knightmare picking the order.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare why is SPS ranked so highly and rumoured to go at pick 5? Could you comment on the following

-neither inside or outside and doesnt carry the football despite having great evasive skills

-no signs of improvement over 2016

- not a high possession winner

Has struggled with injury this year and visibly from my viewing he has not provided nearly the run he did last year.

He is someone who will be picked based on his mix of attributes and on previous performance with clubs knowing his talent.

There are risks involved in picking players who are damaging but probably don't find enough of the ball or show improvement in their draft year. But someone will take the chance and possibly inside the top 10.

Around pick 10 I see him as suitable to select with that about the point where the risk/reward is about right.

Im not a huge fan on english but his mobility and skills for a big guys stood out. I know people compared his kicking to cox but i thought its better. However, i was dissapointed with his ruck work and overhead marking. Im not sure he will be elite ever.

My position is the same.

He has some attributes but there are key areas that are missing and suggest he may be good, but great like a Cox is a stretch.

Not sure if many of you have seen this after last years draft! but Knightmare's had the best hit rate of all AFL draft experts.

Hopefully you can be number 1 again this year KM! Keep up the great work.

https://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/2015/11/

View attachment 308297

Thanks for the analysis Sonsofthescray. Interesting to know how I went against others last year.

I'd be interested to know where I fit in 2014. I imagine I would have had the most accurate draft overall and I believe I even may have beaten out Emma Qualye and Cal Twomey that year also.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmare-2014-phantom-draft.1081319/

With picking the selections, it's mostly just knowing the club lists, needs. Trends from previous drafts eg. Brisbane like drafting out of Tasmania - and knowing this I picked 2/3 of Brisbane's selections in 2014 from late picks with a few Tasmanian's I was expecting to go late. Then knowing which rumours to follow and which ones are false.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare your the man

This is the most interesting draft in 10 years not even God could pick after 8...

English from pick 9 to 22
Venables from pick 9 to 20
Sympkin from 11-to 22
Hayward pick 13-25
Lougie pick 9-20
Marshall pick 10-22
Battle pick 12-25
Bolton pick 11-25
Florent pick 11-22
Scheer pick 10-22
Peteri-Seton pick 6-17
Crimshaw 11-20
Drew pick 16-29
Powell-pepper 16-28
Mutch 15-30
Scharemburg 15-30
Witherden-11-25
Berry 15-30

So after round 8 there are 18 players I believe could become A graders and thats why this is a magic draft..Good luck Knightmare picking the order.

It's going to be a difficult draft to pick.

My next phantom draft update will have lots of little tweaks.

After 10 every year it's difficult to pick and speculative and this year given the greater than usual evenness even more so.

Some of those ranges I'd debate. Drew probably isn't picked before 30. Could be the same story with Mutch. Scrimshaw probably goes top 10 with Gold Coast thought to be interest. Several will go higher/lower than those ranges but that's the way it always is. Unpredictable.

 

[blueiris]

Has struggled with injury this year and visibly from my viewing he has not provided nearly the run he did last year.

He is someone who will be picked based on his mix of attributes and on previous performance with clubs knowing his talent.

There are risks involved in picking players who are damaging but probably don't find enough of the ball or show improvement in their draft year. But someone will take the chance and possibly inside the top 10.

Around pick 10 I see him as suitable to select with that about the point where the risk/reward is about right.



My position is the same.

He has some attributes but there are key areas that are missing and suggest he may be good, but great like a Cox is a stretch.



Thanks for the analysis Sonsofthescray. Interesting to know how I went against others last year.

I'd be interested to know where I fit in 2014. I imagine I would have had the most accurate draft overall and I believe I even may have beaten out Emma Qualye and Cal Twomey that year also.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmare-2014-phantom-draft.1081319/

With picking the selections, it's mostly just knowing the club lists, needs. Trends from previous drafts eg. Brisbane like drafting out of Tasmania - and knowing this I picked 2/3 of Brisbane's selections in 2014 from late picks with a few Tasmanian's I was expecting to go late. Then knowing which rumours to follow and which ones are false.

Really bad year draft wise for the Lions

 

[54dreamsalive]

It's going to be a difficult draft to pick.

My next phantom draft update will have lots of little tweaks.

After 10 every year it's difficult to pick and speculative and this year given the greater than usual evenness even more so.

Some of those ranges I'd debate. Drew probably isn't picked before 30. Could be the same story with Mutch. Scrimshaw probably goes top 10 with Gold Coast thought to be interest. Several will go higher/lower than those ranges but that's the way it always is. Unpredictable.

Good info St Kilda like Drew

 

[Metapod]

Hey KM,

Can you help me understand why everyone has Dylan Clarke being taken in the 30's? From what I've read, he is a high possession, contested ball winning beast with great hands in stoppages. Would like Richmond to look at him at 27...

 

[TerryWallet]

Hey KM,

Can you help me understand why everyone has Dylan Clarke being taken in the 30's? From what I've read, he is a high possession, contested ball winning beast with great hands in stoppages. Would like Richmond to look at him at 27...

Because with about 90% probability, he is a VFL/SANFL/WAFL calibre player.

imho

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,

Can you help me understand why everyone has Dylan Clarke being taken in the 30's? From what I've read, he is a high possession, contested ball winning beast with great hands in stoppages. Would like Richmond to look at him at 27...

He is all that but is also below average in his kicking. While he has endurance he isn't quick. Lacks an x-factor.

That's why clubs rate him 20-45ish.

Solid midfielder and in Richmond's situation an appropriate consideration given midfield weakness.

 

[Keyter]

Do u think Ben Davis from the Allies will get a pick?

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Good info St Kilda like Drew

How do you know this??

 

[Knightmare]

Do u think Ben Davis from the Allies will get a pick?

He's a possible.

Brother of Abe.

Late/rookie if he is.

 

[M Malice]

Knightmare your the man

This is the most interesting draft in 10 years not even God could pick after 8...

English from pick 9 to 22
Venables from pick 9 to 20
Sympkin from 11-to 22
Hayward pick 13-25
Lougie pick 9-20
Marshall pick 10-22
Battle pick 12-25
Bolton pick 11-25
Florent pick 11-22
Scheer pick 10-22
Peteri-Seton pick 6-17
Crimshaw 11-20
Drew pick 16-29
Powell-pepper 16-28
Mutch 15-30
Scharemburg 15-30
Witherden-11-25
Berry 15-30

So after round 8 there are 18 players I believe could become A graders and thats why this is a magic draft..Good luck Knightmare picking the order.

we have 16, 21 and 22, if players go as low as you are speculating we could end up with Ainsworth, Petrevski-Seton, Berry and Simpkin or Florent.

if that were to happen i don't think we could have done any better with 4 picks in the top 10 ah la the suns. i hope you are spot on = super draft.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Really bad year draft wise for the Lions

You don't rate Dawson or Harris Andrews? In fairness the lions only entered the draft plus 40 so not much to work with!

 

[blueiris]

Hey KM,

Can you help me understand why everyone has Dylan Clarke being taken in the 30's? From what I've read, he is a high possession, contested ball winning beast with great hands in stoppages. Would like Richmond to look at him at 27...

I really like Clarke and him being a Lions supporter hopefully the Lions look at him at our 2 picks in the 20s

You don't rate Dawson or Harris Andrews? In fairness the lions only entered the draft plus 40 so not much to work with!

I like Andrews think he's easily our best defender not really a fan of Dawson hasn't shown enough to really tell if he was a good pick up or not. Beams and Christensen have both been huge let downs with them always being injured Robinson was probably our best pick up as a free agent that year

 

[Metapod]

He is all that but is also below average in his kicking. While he has endurance he isn't quick. Lacks an x-factor.

That's why clubs rate him 20-45ish.

Solid midfielder and in Richmond's situation an appropriate consideration given midfield weakness.

Is he similar to Matt Crouch?

 

[Knightmare]

we have 16, 21 and 22, if players go as low as you are speculating we could end up with Ainsworth, Petrevski-Seton, Berry and Simpkin or Florent.

if that were to happen i don't think we could have done any better with 4 picks in the top 10 ah la the suns. i hope you are spot on = super draft.

You may be looking at my power rankings (which is where I rate players).

This is my phantom draft (where I see players going): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17897568/knightmare-first-2017-afl-phantom-draft

My phantom draft will be quite different next update. But still it's a current and solid enough for the most part indication of where most of the first and second rounders will roughly feature this year.

Is he similar to Matt Crouch?

Some similarities.

Crouch is a higher volume ball winner who just has a natural instinct for the footy.

By contrast, Clarke has much better endurance and while he finds plenty of it, works harder to get similar or slightly worse numbers - when comparing junior career to junior career.

 

[Wangchung82]

Hi KM,

I am not a huge follower of the U/18 comp, but am hearing a lot about Sam Powell-Pepper for West Coasts first pick.

I like the sound of him, even though it's probably a reach.

Your thoughts of him at the pick and do you think it's a genuine possibility?

 

[Hawker98]

Hey KM

A lot of people are saying that Begley will be going at around pick 60, what do you think?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[M Malice]

You may be looking at my power rankings (which is where I rate players).

This is my phantom draft (where I see players going): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17897568/knightmare-first-2017-afl-phantom-draft

My phantom draft will be quite different next update. But still it's a current and solid enough for the most part indication of where most of the first and second rounders will roughly feature this year.

thanks KM but that post of mine you were replying to was a response to 54dreamsalive speculation of the range players might go in. busy time of the year for you with BF PD and ESPN, love reading your thoughts.

while i have you what are your thoughts on the lions list build since the go home 5? i think it has been very good and with another good one coming this year i think we will have the makings of our next finals side on the list.

 

[Roadto2018]

Hey Knightmare what are your thoughts on drafting a ruckman with an early pick?

In the past 5 years or so the saying is that it's not worth the investment, but then players like Naitanui and to a much greater extent Grundy has REALLY proven doubters wrong. But then there're also clear failures such as Kreuzer, Longer.

Honestly I just can't see English working out as a top 10 pick for any club. In many phantom drafts people seem to think English is worth a pick as early as top 10, but like you said he demonstrates very similar traits to Fraser. I just can't see him transitioning into 1. A proper ruck. 2. A proper KPF 3. A key forward who pinch hit in the rucks (Lobb, Boyd). He seems to be more suited as a midfielder than either ruck or forward. His size is also extremely worrying if you were to develop him into a ruck/key position player. He probably needs to add on 15-20 kilos to be of adequate size for AFL. However, it is ALWAYS easier said than done for this scenario, and then you have problems with adapting to your new frame/play style/athleticism. His current athleticism will also be compromised, his skills will take time to adjust with muscles of greater mass. His leap won't be as much of a strength. I just don't see it working out. Thoughts?

If you think Longer is a clear failure then you either don't know much about football or are trolling.

 

[henry27]

Km do you have a new articles coming out anytime soon on ESPN?