Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

hey knightmare, (in this draft) if you were splitting pick 2 what two picks would you demand in return for it and like wise for pick 3

As in if I had to trade pick 2, what combination of picks in this draft would be of equivalent value?

For pick 2 I'd be asking for picks 3, 4 and another top 30 choice. I'd then probably flip picks three and four for a combination of other picks include two others inside the first eight and whatever additional value I can get for it. *I'm an Anderson fan and feel he's the best in the pool. Knowing someone would match bids on what would be a bid on Green with pick 3, I see that much separation between Anderson and the field. So it's not a pick I would be giving up for market value, in the same way I wouldn't have given up pick 2 or 3 for market value last year knowing Lukosius and Rankine were going to be there.

For pick 3 this year, I'd happily flip it for any two picks inside the top 8 as I see a real evenness from picks 3-8, and I'd feel like I'd probably with one of if not both of those get my two preferred considerations, or if not then at least that next guy I would have been thinking about with pick 3 anyway.

 

[gawndog37]

Hi knightmare, assuming gold coast get pick 2 meaning rowell and anderson are off the board, if you were melbourne and had pick 3 who would you take?

Biggest need would be an outside player with class, speed, and endurance which dylan stephens seem to tick all 3 do you think taking him at 3 would be too much of a reach? Others that would be a good fit would be young or ash but intrigued about who you think would be the best fit at the dees next year.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi knightmare, assuming gold coast get pick 2 meaning rowell and anderson are off the board, if you were melbourne and had pick 3 who would you take?

Biggest need would be an outside player with class, speed, and endurance which dylan stephens seem to tick all 3 do you think taking him at 3 would be too much of a reach? Others that would be a good fit would be young or ash but intrigued about who you think would be the best fit at the dees next year.

Lachlan Ash and Dylan Stephens are the two who tick those boxes. Both probably could be had pick 5 onwards, so Melbourne may be able to move back 2-3 spots and still get their pick of that pair and add an additional second round pick or player of equivalent value who can fill another hole to that.

Stephens probably is the better accumulator and more ready to play given what he has been doing at SANFL League level, but Ash is the more damaging as the even faster and more damaging kick of the two. Ash being more back leaning, Stephens the more forward leaning.

Of the two, I like Ash. I didn't love his end to the season where he was getting forced to play through the midfield - though he was fine through there. He's at his best generating drive off half-back or up on a wing.

 

[ModernArtillery]

Hi Knightmare,

After a pretty special start to his SANFL league career, Cameron Taheny seemed to really fall away after a disappointing (in my eyes) Champs. I know he had school footy commitments which ultimately lead to him falling out of the Norwood League side but his form was certainly on the decline. I've also heard a bit of chatter questioning his durability and ticker. How has this impacted his stock and draft position? I probably had him between 10-18 middle of the year but is he in danger of falling to 20-30?

As a Crows fan I've been a big fan of Sam Flanders and his game against Oakleigh a few weeks ago only solidified that. Assuming Gold Coast don't get the priority pick, is 3 too high for him? I genuinely rate him top 5 (I think he's the third best player in this draft) and wouldn't want to risk splitting the pick, moving back in the draft, and missing out on him completely.

Also, I'm really keen on Miles Bergman and would love us to get him at (currently) pick 21. I feel he's a great pick for Melbourne who hold a pick before us in the second round. Would that be around the mark for Bergman? There's probably a fair chance we're going to add to our draft hand through the trade period so this might add to our ability to move up.

Finally, I get the impression that given the closeness of the talent from around 10-30, more teams will be active in live trading during draft night as they see players they like falling into positions where they feel more comfortable (or capable) taking them. Is that a fair impression?

 

[LemmingMaster]

Who's the most exciting highlights-reel player in the draft?

Elijah Taylor has some potential to create a highlight reel.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Can you expand on this, because over the last 24 months, they have really turned over and grown their off field staff.

Player development - If they've changed this aspect, it will be interesting to see the development of Rankine, King, Luko....
Injury management - This seems to be a running theme at the club, last year did not look any better
Recruitment - I personally liked all their picks last year, but they were rather easy picks, interesting to see how they go without super high picks.
Player welfare - Always hard to know, but hopefully their retention rates with regards to players improve, Brisbane had retention issues and recently have managed to curb the exodus out of the club. Even switching it to players requesting moves to Brissy.

Those are all hard to judge, but they seem to have been a running issue for the Suns.

You may be correct and they've dealt with some of those issues. I still think they require a PP to speed up their on field progression to go with their off field changes.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,

After a pretty special start to his SANFL league career, Cameron Taheny seemed to really fall away after a disappointing (in my eyes) Champs. I know he had school footy commitments which ultimately lead to him falling out of the Norwood League side but his form was certainly on the decline. I've also heard a bit of chatter questioning his durability and ticker. How has this impacted his stock and draft position? I probably had him between 10-18 middle of the year but is he in danger of falling to 20-30?

As a Crows fan I've been a big fan of Sam Flanders and his game against Oakleigh a few weeks ago only solidified that. Assuming Gold Coast don't get the priority pick, is 3 too high for him? I genuinely rate him top 5 (I think he's the third best player in this draft) and wouldn't want to risk splitting the pick, moving back in the draft, and missing out on him completely.

Also, I'm really keen on Miles Bergman and would love us to get him at (currently) pick 21. I feel he's a great pick for Melbourne who hold a pick before us in the second round. Would that be around the mark for Bergman? There's probably a fair chance we're going to add to our draft hand through the trade period so this might add to our ability to move up.

Finally, I get the impression that given the closeness of the talent from around 10-30, more teams will be active in live trading during draft night as they see players they like falling into positions where they feel more comfortable (or capable) taking them. Is that a fair impression?

I'd be surprised if Taheny landed inside the first round. I don't even have him 20-30. I'm thinking 30-50 is more likely. He's a good talent and finds a way to kick goals, but in all the games I've seen, other than the goals he has kicked, he's been largely invisible.

Sam Flanders is worth strong consideration at 3. As a forward, he's as good as Anderson. And he's one of the better mids this year on top of that. I don't consider pick 3 unreasonably high. He'd deserves to be in that conversation.

I personally have a clear top 3 of Anderson/Green/Rowell. That's for me the top tier. After that, Flanders is in that next grouping of five or six that will come down to team preference.

Bergman has grown on me over the course of the season. Such a strong mark and has really nice penetration on his kick. He's a nice forward but he could be an even better defender potentially. Bergman I see as a second round onwards selection, so with a pick in the 20s I'd be anticipating he is available.

10-20 and 20-30 I have two rough tiers in that range, but I expect lots of pick trading to become the norm. Lots will happen before the draft, but there is that element of evenness that could even see some top 10 picks move hands plausibly if a team's favourite prospect drops.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on potential top-5 choice Caleb Serong: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...wrap-why-caleb-serong-firming-top-five-choice

 

[TheGeneralmeg]

Elijah Taylor has some potential to create a highlight reel.

From what I have seen in the NEAFL Noah Cumberland (neafl gf) Joshua Gore (ie goal v GWS at Metricon) and Nick Murray ( mark in the square) would be up there

 

[briztoon]

Player development - If they've changed this aspect, it will be interesting to see the development of Rankine, King, Luko....
Injury management - This seems to be a running theme at the club, last year did not look any better
Recruitment - I personally liked all their picks last year, but they were rather easy picks, interesting to see how they go without super high picks.
Player welfare - Always hard to know, but hopefully their retention rates with regards to players improve, Brisbane had retention issues and recently have managed to curb the exodus out of the club. Even switching it to players requesting moves to Brissy.

Those are all hard to judge, but they seem to have been a running issue for the Suns.

You may be correct and they've dealt with some of those issues. I still think they require a PP to speed up their on field progression to go with their off field changes.

As of this season, GC have the largest welfare department with the biggest spend out of all the clubs.

Injury management, again new people involved, but still the same lengthy injury list.

Craig Cameron from GWS is their new head of list and recruiting.

Football Staff - goldcoastfc.com.au

m.goldcoastfc.com.au

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Hi KM, just wondering what your thoughts on Dylan Williams are? He seems to divide opinion. Some still rate him highly, saying he has the x-factor to be one of the best from this draft. Others seem to think he's fallen away so much this year that they don't rate him. What do you think, can he be the player some think he is, or is his performance this year too indicative? And I guess as a larger point is a player's final underage year supremely important when judging them or are there examples of players who perform way under expectations but then recapture earlier form when they reach AFL? How important is trajectory?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, just wondering what your thoughts on Dylan Williams are? He seems to divide opinion. Some still rate him highly, saying he has the x-factor to be one of the best from this draft. Others seem to think he's fallen away so much this year that they don't rate him. What do you think, can he be the player some think he is, or is his performance this year too indicative? And I guess as a larger point is a player's final underage year supremely important when judging them or are there examples of players who perform way under expectations but then recapture earlier form when they reach AFL? How important is trajectory?

Williams has been awful this year, but was terrific last year. Coming into the season I thought he would be a top 5 pick, but I'm no longer feeling that strongly about him.

I'd be willing to spend somewhere around pick 20 on him and hope he can get his body right as I do see some value in him. But high risk/high reward given he has been poor this year.

If things go well, he could be Steve Johnson. If things don't, he might be out of the league in a few years. Views will be varied, but I'd have him around 20 on my personal board so he's one I'd draft if he's top of my board at a given pick.

Jack Darling is one example that sticks in my mind of his draft year being awful, but the year before he looked like he was so good he would have been the top pick in the 2009 draft if he was in that class. So what you do in your draft year isn't the be-all-end-all. Improvement in draft year can be an indicator of upside, but if like Williams who has had ongoing back issues is unable as a direct result of that to play, then you have to assess what was his rate of development prior to all those issues surfacing and put less weighting into upside and more on what he has done prior to the injury.

 

[Roughies Boys]

Hi Knightmare

your thoughts on where Will Gould & Brodie Kemp will fall in the draft?

 

[eDPS]

I can’t cop anyone saying Williams has been awful this year, can be argued he hasn’t dominated as much as he did last year but he has still had some very good games and has been played everywhere this year and still managed to show some signs.

Still kicking 16 goals from 7 games that included a game where he played mostly back. And that’s with some added midfield minutes here and there.

 

[Mutineer]

Williams has been awful this year, but was terrific last year. Coming into the season I thought he would be a top 5 pick, but I'm no longer feeling that strongly about him.

I'd be willing to spend somewhere around pick 20 on him and hope he can get his body right as I do see some value in him. But high risk/high reward given he has been poor this year.

If things go well, he could be Steve Johnson. If things don't, he might be out of the league in a few years. Views will be varied, but I'd have him around 20 on my personal board so he's one I'd draft if he's top of my board at a given pick.

Jack Darling is one example that sticks in my mind of his draft year being awful, but the year before he looked like he was so good he would have been the top pick in the 2009 draft if he was in that class. So what you do in your draft year isn't the be-all-end-all. Improvement in draft year can be an indicator of upside, but if like Williams who has had ongoing back issues is unable as a direct result of that to play, then you have to assess what was his rate of development prior to all those issues surfacing and put less weighting into upside and more on what he has done prior to the injury.

Similar to Jack Bytel last year who would have been almost certainly in 1st round discussions coming off his under age year? With me anyhow.

 

[Vimal Anand]

Hi KM, at what position jeremy sharp and deven robertson will go this draft? Thank you

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare

your thoughts on where Will Gould & Brodie Kemp will fall in the draft?

Will Gould has a fairly open range. He's could reasonably fall anywhere 5-25 and I wouldn't be surprised. I consider him underrated and I'd pick him right up the top of that range, but smart money is he falls somewhere in the teens with some suggestions late teens.

Brodie Kemp with the injury drops him from a potential 3-7 to anywhere 3-15 reasonably. I feel he's still going top 10, but probably lands somewhere around pick 5.

I can’t cop anyone saying Williams has been awful this year, can be argued he hasn’t dominated as much as he did last year but he has still had some very good games and has been played everywhere this year and still managed to show some signs.

Still kicking 16 goals from 7 games that included a game where he played mostly back. And that’s with some added midfield minutes here and there.

Averages of 0.5 goals and 5 disposals over x2 U18 Champs games?

Only 13d, 3m and 1t per game for Oakleigh. Those aren't good numbers on the best team in the competition.

Anderson averaged 30d and 2.2g per game in NAB League. Williams was in the same conversation coming into the season as Anderson as a consensus top 5 pick. Williams who can roll through the midfield should be running at 20d+ along with his 2+ goals as a pass mark in NAB League.

Similar to Jack Bytel last year who would have been almost certainly in 1st round discussions coming off his under age year? With me anyhow.

I see Williams in another category completely. Bytel was more someone who looked like a first rounder. Williams looked like a legit top-5 choice.

Hi KM, at what position jeremy sharp and deven robertson will go this draft? Thank you

For a rough feel Robertson 5-20, Sharp 15-35.

 

[Lach72]

As in if I had to trade pick 2, what combination of picks in this draft would be of equivalent value?

For pick 2 I'd be asking for picks 3, 4 and another top 30 choice. I'd then probably flip picks three and four for a combination of other picks include two others inside the first eight and whatever additional value I can get for it. *I'm an Anderson fan and feel he's the best in the pool. Knowing someone would match bids on what would be a bid on Green with pick 3, I see that much separation between Anderson and the field. So it's not a pick I would be giving up for market value, in the same way I wouldn't have given up pick 2 or 3 for market value last year knowing Lukosius and Rankine were going to be there.

For pick 3 this year, I'd happily flip it for any two picks inside the top 8 as I see a real evenness from picks 3-8, and I'd feel like I'd probably with one of if not both of those get my two preferred considerations, or if not then at least that next guy I would have been thinking about with pick 3 anyway.

Wot? Which idiot is doing that?

 

[Knightmare]

Wot? Which idiot is doing that?

No one, because no one with pick 2 should be moving it.

It's like with Richmond having pick 2 in 2007. Noah Anderson is the Trent Cotchin quality guy, and then you have your Chris Master/Cale Morton/Jarrad Grant/David Myers projected to go in the next few selections. I'm not suggesting like those guys that the next few picks will be busts, but like in 2007, there is in my view separation.

If you're giving up pick 2 in that draft knowing you can get Trent Cotchin, and feeling he is the best in the draft as I do with Noah Anderson, I'd be expecting that kind of return in picks. Something like 3/4 and something inside the 20s. Then flip 3 and 4 to something like two of picks 5/6/7 and something in the teens and maybe some other pick upgrade.

And if it's Caleb Serong and Hayden Young in some order who drop at 3/4, I'd be more than happy moving to 5/6/7 to get one of that remaining evenly viewed second tier. And if I can get a Will Gould in the teens, someone else in the 20s on top of that. I'd want to feel like I'm getting that kind of return to give up who I think is this year's best as a 30d, 2g per game type.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Williams has been awful this year, but was terrific last year. Coming into the season I thought he would be a top 5 pick, but I'm no longer feeling that strongly about him.

I'd be willing to spend somewhere around pick 20 on him and hope he can get his body right as I do see some value in him. But high risk/high reward given he has been poor this year.

Assuming an under-age year of comparable quality, would you rather pick someone who who had a poor top-age year (e.g. Williams) or who missed their top-age year almost entirely (e.g. Cooper Stephens)?

 

[Roughies Boys]

Knightmare so who do you predict Hawthorn to take if they keep their pick?

 

[Knightmare]

Assuming an under-age year of comparable quality, would you rather pick someone who who had a poor top-age year (e.g. Williams) or who missed their top-age year almost entirely (e.g. Cooper Stephens)?

Each is case by case for me but ultimately I'd be looking at their peaks and going with that. So for Williams. That peak is last year. For Stephens, that peak also was last year because he has been sitting out.

Coming into the season I had Williams at 5. Stephens at 18. Currently I'd have them something like Williams at 20, Stephens somewhere around 30. And that's just with guys around them improving and going past where they were at last year.

Knightmare so who do you predict Hawthorn to take if they keep their pick?

If the pick is retained Will Gould would be a great get in defence and feels like the type Hawthorn and Clarko would love to add. Fischer McAsey would make sense as a KPP around that range to give you another name.

After that Finn Maginness as a father-son will be picked and surely matched.

 

[Lach72]

No one, because no one with pick 2 should be moving it.

It's like with Richmond having pick 2 in 2007. Noah Anderson is the Trent Cotchin quality guy, and then you have your Chris Master/Cale Morton/Jarrad Grant/David Myers projected to go in the next few selections. I'm not suggesting like those guys that the next few picks will be busts, but like in 2007, there is in my view separation.

If you're giving up pick 2 in that draft knowing you can get Trent Cotchin, and feeling he is the best in the draft as I do with Noah Anderson, I'd be expecting that kind of return in picks. Something like 3/4 and something inside the 20s. Then flip 3 and 4 to something like two of picks 5/6/7 and something in the teens and maybe some other pick upgrade.

And if it's Caleb Serong and Hayden Young in some order who drop at 3/4, I'd be more than happy moving to 5/6/7 to get one of that remaining evenly viewed second tier. And if I can get a Will Gould in the teens, someone else in the 20s on top of that. I'd want to feel like I'm getting that kind of return to give up who I think is this year's best as a 30d, 2g per game type.

There is no idiot big enough to offer 3 and 4 and a pick in the 30's for pick 2. None...

 

[LemmingMaster]

Jack Darling is one example that sticks in my mind of his draft year being awful, but the year before he looked like he was so good he would have been the top pick in the 2009 draft if he was in that class. So what you do in your draft year isn't the be-all-end-all. Improvement in draft year can be an indicator of upside, but if like Williams who has had ongoing back issues is unable as a direct result of that to play, then you have to assess what was his rate of development prior to all those issues surfacing and put less weighting into upside and more on what he has done prior to the injury.

Darling was fine in his draft year, he just got smashed and punched the crap out of someone in Claremont and that is why he dropped.

 

[briztoon]

Knightmare, eDPS and Pie 4 Life, can one of you confirm the nature of Williams injury.

I’m sure I read/heard he has been playing with a stress fracture in his back.