Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Darling was fine in his draft year, he just got smashed and punched the crap out of someone in Claremont and that is why he dropped.

Fine is the word to describe Darling's draft year. Terrific as an underager. Looked like he would be the first picked in 2009 kind of stuff. But his draft year was just fine. It was a regression of his previous year, pressured perhaps a little better, but he wasn't that dominant force he looked the year prior.

Knightmare, eDPS and Pie 4 Life, can one of you confirm the nature of Williams injury.

I’m sure I read/heard he has been playing with a stress fracture in his back.

Can confirm stress fractures. Bad enough that he's not playing through the finals and bad enough to have limited him this season.

 

[tenderwarrior]

Walsh, Rowell, Lukosius, Anderson, Rankine, M.King, Rozee, B.King, Smith, Green, Blakey, Young, Serong, Thomas, Flanders, Kemp, Caldwell, Ash, Stephens, Quaynor, Hately, Jones, Clark, Gould

Last year's top end is the best I've ever seen, particularly through those first 7.

If I'm picking last year or even this year, my order is very different.

It is a hypothetical question, so I am interested in where you would select these guys based on what you personally have seen, a combined 'power ranking' if you like?

 

[Knightmare]

It is a hypothetical question, so I am interested in where you would select these guys based on what you personally have seen, a combined 'power ranking' if you like?

Based on at the time draft rankings to merge them:
1. Lukosius
2. Rankine
3. Smith
4. Walsh
5. Anderson
6. Green
7. Rowell
--
8. M.King
9. Blakey
10. Caldwell
11. B.King
--
12. Flanders
13. Kemp
14. Gould
15. West
16. Duursma
17. Rozee
18. Hately
19. Collier-Dawkins
20. McFadyen
21. Ash
22. Young
23. Robertson
24. Serong
--

*And this year's draft I'm still settling on the order. Flanders/Kemp/Gould/Ash/Young/Robertson/Serong. There is so little separation in that group, I could pick them in any order really and will probably continue moving them around in the leadup to the draft.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Fine is the word to describe Darling's draft year. Terrific as an underager. Looked like he would be the first picked in 2009 kind of stuff. But his draft year was just fine. It was a regression of his previous year, pressured perhaps a little better, but he wasn't that dominant force he looked the year prior.

I still thought he was a top 5 pick and it was crazy at the time allowing him to slide that far. Thought Freo were crazy passing him over when they required tall forwards at the time, then they butcher their pick and Eagles once again get KOTD!

 

[Knightmare]

I still thought he was a top 5 pick and it was crazy at the time allowing him to slide that far. Thought Freo were crazy passing him over when they required tall forwards at the time, then they butcher their pick and Eagles once again get KOTD!

I also consider Darling underrated, having him at 16 in my power rankings (drafted at 26).

My relative concern was his lack of improvement. Upward trajectory with talls is important, and Darling didn't show it. Additionally, he's short for a key forward, so his upside was unclear + there were off-field queries. So he wasn't so clear-cut and while in hindsight absolutely he is one of the best 5 from his pool, with those red flags someone fitting that same profile I'd again have similar hesitance taking him top 5.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Fine is the word to describe Darling's draft year. Terrific as an underager. Looked like he would be the first picked in 2009 kind of stuff. But his draft year was just fine. It was a regression of his previous year, pressured perhaps a little better, but he wasn't that dominant force he looked the year prior.



Can confirm stress fractures. Bad enough that he's not playing through the finals and bad enough to have limited him this season.

Is that the kind of injury to be worried about long term?

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Based on at the time draft rankings to merge them:
1. Lukosius
2. Rankine
3. Smith
4. Walsh
5. Anderson
6. Green
7. Rowell
--
8. M.King
9. Blakey
10. Caldwell
11. B.King
--
12. Flanders
13. Kemp
14. Gould
15. West
16. Duursma
17. Rozee
18. Hately
19. Collier-Dawkins
20. McFadyen
21. Ash
22. Young
23. Robertson
24. Serong
--

*And this year's draft I'm still settling on the order. Flanders/Kemp/Gould/Ash/Young/Robertson/Serong. There is so little separation in that group, I could pick them in any order really and will probably continue moving them around in the leadup to the draft.

Also I forgot you ranked West so high. Hope you turn out to be right.

 

[Knightmare]

Is that the kind of injury to be worried about long term?

I'm no medical expert, but my understanding is with rest should be fine.

Also I forgot you ranked West so high. Hope you turn out to be right.

I remain confident in West's scope to develop. The only question is whether the Dogs can afford him the midfield minutes he needs. His finish to the year in the VFL was a strong suggestion he has a future at AFL level. His last four games were particularly notable.

 

[tenderwarrior]

Based on at the time draft rankings to merge them:
1. Lukosius
2. Rankine
3. Smith
4. Walsh
5. Anderson
6. Green
7. Rowell
--
8. M.King
9. Blakey
10. Caldwell
11. B.King
--
12. Flanders
13. Kemp
14. Gould
15. West
16. Duursma
17. Rozee
18. Hately
19. Collier-Dawkins
20. McFadyen
21. Ash
22. Young
23. Robertson
24. Serong
--

*And this year's draft I'm still settling on the order. Flanders/Kemp/Gould/Ash/Young/Robertson/Serong. There is so little separation in that group, I could pick them in any order really and will probably continue moving them around in the leadup to the draft.

Thanks!

That shows us that Flanders is rising in your ratings like a bullet!

If I remember correctly you rated Stack highly as well, Would he sneak into the 25?

 

[Roughies Boys]

Knightmare what is the likelihood that Stephens goes top 10? what's the earliest you think he'd go?

 

[CaptainMurphy]

I'm no medical expert, but my understanding is with rest should be fine.



I remain confident in West's scope to develop. The only question is whether the Dogs can afford him the midfield minutes he needs. His finish to the year in the VFL was a strong suggestion he has a future at AFL level. His last four games were particularly notable.

Yeah he had a great season in the VFL (2nd in the league best and fairest) and didn't seem troubled by the step up to AFL. As you said though, we're stocked in the position he excels at, so I'm hoping he can carve out a spot as a small forward in the meantime.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks!

That shows us that Flanders is rising in your ratings like a bullet!

I've liked his play late season. I think it was the reminder of what he could do forward of centre has him rising again up my board back to where I rated him preseason. Also liked his will early in the final quarter last week through the midfield when the game was on the line. I'm weighing up whether I like him more than Kemp/Gould/others on my board, but I'm considering moving him ahead of them.

Knightmare what is the likelihood that Stephens goes top 10? what's the earliest you think he'd go?

Stephens is firmly in the top 10 mix and I suspect he gets picked somewhere in there. Plausibly as high as Melbourne's selection he could receive consideration given what they're lacking, assuming Gold Coast get picks 1+2.

Yeah he had a great season in the VFL (2nd in the league best and fairest) and didn't seem troubled by the step up to AFL. As you said though, we're stocked in the position he excels at, so I'm hoping he can carve out a spot as a small forward in the meantime.

Seems capable up forward, but like with McLean, he'll be at his best when he gets midfield minutes. Smith is another who fits that category. Minutes need to be opened up for them to go through there more.

That may mean moving Liber and Wallis, but fix up that balance and get some players who can fill other holes for them and I feel like the Dogs can improve in a hurry.

 

[blueiris]

Knightmare Lions have two 20 picks who would you suggest they look at in that draft range if they keep those picks what do Brisbane Lions need most besides Hipwood and McStay continued improvement ?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare Lions have two 20 picks who would you suggest they look at in that draft range if they keep those picks what do Brisbane Lions need most besides Hipwood and McStay continued improvement ?

I'm looking at key forwards, ruckmen and another rebounding defender for Brisbane at this stage.

Luke Jackson as a ruckman if there would be fantastic, but I don't think he will be. If feeling like Jackson won't be available, I'd be pretty open to shopping that pick for the right deal.

I most like Jeremy Sharp for rebound out of defence in that range. I see a fit with Hodge retiring. He should be available with that second selection and Brisbane may even be able to move into the 20s and upgrade something else and still get him.

--
Unrelated aside, and you've probably had your profile pic for a while and I just haven't been paying attention. But I flat out loved Gotham. Has been my favourite program in recent years.

 

[blueiris]

I'm looking at key forwards, ruckmen and another rebounding defender for Brisbane at this stage.

Luke Jackson as a ruckman if there would be fantastic, but I don't think he will be. If feeling like Jackson won't be available, I'd be pretty open to shopping that pick for the right deal.

I most like Jeremy Sharp for rebound out of defence in that range. I see a fit with Hodge retiring. He should be available with that second selection and Brisbane may even be able to move into the 20s and upgrade something else and still get him.

--
Unrelated aside, and you've probably had your profile pic for a while and I just haven't been paying attention. But I flat out loved Gotham. Has been my favourite program in recent years.

I'm not really sure Key forwards are a real need more on our midfielders working on their disposal I50 we were also the highest scoring team this season agree that a running defender is a must was hopeful that Bailey would become that player but Fagan choose's to play him at HFF could Ah Chee be that player Brisbane Lions are looking at.

 

[Knightmare]

I'm not really sure Key forwards are a real need more on our midfielders working on their disposal I50 we were also the highest scoring team this season agree that a running defender is a must was hopeful that Bailey would become that player but Fagan choose's to play him at HFF could Ah Chee be that player Brisbane Lions are looking at.

Brisbane's KPP stocks I've long found frustrating. All the established key position players I consider key defenders. Andrews, Hipwood, Walker, Adams, Gardner, McStay. The developing Ballenden. I don't love any of them as key forwards.

Bailey is worth persisting with and has the scope to develop. I'd like to see him develop into some kind of rotational fwd/mid or mid/fwd.

Ah Chee I don't rate. He hasn't done enough to convince me he is worth using up a senior list position on. Four years in, not only has he not improved meaningfully but I'm not seeing a position where I feel he's AFL standard. Forward, back. There isn't a club in the competition I'm looking at and thinking he's best 22 on.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Knightmare where does the top 10 this year sit compared to last years top 10?

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Knightmare where does the top 10 this year sit compared to last years top 10?

He's answered this a bunch already, scroll back

 

[Roughies Boys]

Knightmare what do you think each club needs out of the 1st round of the draft, only if they have a first round pick...?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare where does the top 10 this year sit compared to last years top 10?

This year's doesn't compare. 2018's draft is the best top end I've seen. It has the scope to be the best ever up the very pointy end injuries/development permitting.

This year is more comparable to 2016. Perhaps a slightly better version, but that should give you a rough feel for both the top end and the draft more broadly and what to expect.

Knightmare what do you think each club needs out of the 1st round of the draft, only if they have a first round pick...?

Will do a list needs piece over the coming weeks/months covering exactly this.

 

[Roughies Boys]

This year's doesn't compare. 2018's draft is the best top end I've seen. It has the scope to be the best ever up the very pointy end injuries/development permitting.

This year is more comparable to 2016. Perhaps a slightly better version, but that should give you a rough feel for both the top end and the draft more broadly and what to expect.



Will do a list needs piece over the coming weeks/months covering exactly this.

if our need isn't Gould, Flanders, Kemp or McAsey, I'll be very upset

 

[Knightmare]

if our need isn't Gould, Flanders, Kemp or McAsey, I'll be very upset

Hawthorn are good traders and tend to fill list needs during that time anyway historically, so I'd be going best available personally for the Hawks. Do that, get Maginness. And it can be a good draft.

 

[Sidthehat]

Sorry if you've answered this already but if Gold Coast don't get pick 2 and take Anderson at 1, is there anyway Melbourne don't take or trade out of getting Rowell at 2 given their plethora of inside mids?

 

[Knightmare]

Sorry if you've answered this already but if Gold Coast don't get pick 2 and take Anderson at 1, is there anyway Melbourne don't take or trade out of getting Rowell at 2 given their plethora of inside mids?

The talk around Gold Coast's use of pick one that I've heard has been exclusively around taking Rowell.

To play out your hypothetical though Melbourne would take Rowell if there. Absolutely he is best on the inside but at the same time he's a very explosive midfielder and someone who would add variety to the slow inside stocks Melbourne presently have.

And it's not like Rowell can't rotate outside to play on a wing. He's just at his best playing inside.

 

[WWSD]

Knightmare assuming Gold Coast get a priority pick and the Hawks keep it’s 2019 first round pick. Do you think Hawthorn will recruit a key defender with pick 11?