Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[zadav29]

Thoughts on Cooper Murley and his potential draft position? I get the feeling if he was a bit taller he would be considered a nailed on top 10 pick, super quick and clean by foot. Any chance he goes first round with a big back end to the season ?

 

[Knightmare]

I’ve read elsewhere he’s a Toby Green type mid forward.

Toby Greene not a bad comparison either for Rachele as he can fly but then win it through the midfield when he gets a shot through there. He's not as prolific as Greene as that ball winner/impact player but has skills by foot on another level. So there is a bit of a Greene/Didak blend. Very different players obviously, but there is a bit of both.

If I'm to say what his trademark is, it's definitely his kick. It's best in class, even slightly ahead of Fahey for me given how good he is on both sides and as that i50 entry kick.

 

[Knightmare]

Thoughts on Cooper Murley and his potential draft position? I get the feeling if he was a bit taller he would be considered a nailed on top 10 pick, super quick and clean by foot. Any chance he goes first round with a big back end to the season ?

Murley is a talent and as you say and if he were that bit taller, and stronger with further improved contested capabilities, he'd be a first round choice as he has the speed/skills and can rack it up on top of that. He'd need a big back end to the season to go first round. The first round isn't strong or deep this year, so there are opportunities for players to break into that range. He can get drafted with a good second half to the season, and may even without that, but I'm not anticipating he features inside the first round at this stage. He'd have to kill it over the second half, and he very well may as he's good, but I'm just not predicting it at this point until I see that level from him.

 

[pupstar]

The great thing for all us Hawks supporters is that we have watched every minute of day's 16 game career. We have seen him in game 13 odd against GWS have 28 disp, 7 i50, 10 intercept poss, 10cp had a HBF, and some of the most elite line breaking mazey runs you will see at afl, that you can only appreciate with the eye test. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume in game 13 with 9 coaches votes and probably 3 brownlow votes, we think "jeez imagine when he is doing this consistently". So while Kade Simpson was a very good and durable champion of Carlton, hawthorn supporters generally see day as our most impactful player right now. Look on our board, we have a very high ceiling on him. Sure he could do a Ryan Burton and show early promise but we are staying bullish.

I think Ryan is having a really solid season.I think Port would be very pleased on how he is going ever since he has been there actually.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Hawks fans would be aggravated at Will Day becoming Kade Simpson?

Jesus, good luck to the next young players they draft. You cannot possibly be upset at a youngster being projected to be a 300+ game BnF winner (who won the BnF in a team that made a Semi Final, before anyone says that they were awful when he won it).

Not saying Day isn't a good player; he's great for his age and definitely has a high ceiling, but to say that Simpson as a comparison is "aggravating" is pretty laughable.

Not by what Kade Simpson achieved, but by the type of player Simpson was.

Would we take Simpsons career accolades for Day right now? Probably. But Hawthorn fans are anticipating that he'd achieve that as part of our midfield or on a wing and have a bigger impact on our team success considering he's already proven how important he can be.

I see far more similarities in Lachie Whitfield. Whitfield has 1 All Australian and 2 B&F's. By the time he's 26 I could absolutely envision Will Day achieving the same.

For anybody on the fence, I invite you to watch the Hawks/Giants game from a few weeks ago. Day and Whitfield were the two best players on the ground.

Here is a still from that game when they were involved in the same play...

 

[Knightmare]

Not by what Kade Simpson achieved, but by the type of player Simpson was.

Would we take Simpsons career accolades for Day right now? Probably. But Hawthorn fans are anticipating that he'd achieve that as part of our midfield or on a wing and have a bigger impact on our team success considering he's already proven how important he can be.

I see far more similarities in Lachie Whitfield. Whitfield has 1 All Australian and 2 B&F's. By the time he's 26 I could absolutely envision Will Day achieving the same.

For anybody on the fence, I invite you to watch the Hawks/Giants game from a few weeks ago. Day and Whitfield were the two best players on the ground.

Here is a still from that game when they were involved in the same play...



View attachment 1182435

Where I'm not seeing Whitfield is I don't see Day as that kind of aerobic athlete or accumulator. Whether it's on a wing, across half-back or half-forward I'm not seeing Day reaching those heights.

If Day is winning B+F's, I don't see Hawthorn being a good side. He's a talent, but presents as a supplementary star, and frankly Whitfield is a supplementary star himself having not at any stage in my view at least been GWS' best. With GWS at one point in time Shane Mumford's team, and later Toby Greene's, with Jeremy Cameron in 2019 the man for that one year.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Where I'm not seeing Whitfield is I don't see Day as that kind of aerobic athlete or accumulator. Whether it's on a wing, across half-back or half-forward I'm not seeing Day reaching those heights.

If Day is winning B+F's, I don't see Hawthorn being a good side. He's a talent, but presents as a supplementary star, and frankly Whitfield is a supplementary star himself having not at any stage in my view at least been GWS' best. With GWS at one point in time Shane Mumford's team, and later Toby Greene's, with Jeremy Cameron in 2019 the man for that one year.

We won't know for a while of course, so will be very interesting to see which way he develops.

Just from having watched very closely over his first 16 games he appears to have every base covered as far as being a natural footballer. He may not need Whitfields 3km time trial results to have the same impact. Time will tell.

 

[Knightmare]

The best key position player outside the AFL has emerged and looms as both a plug and play piece and a long-term answer. A former Geelong Category B rookie, Blake Schlensog was unlucky to be delisted at the conclusion of the 2020 season, following rapid improvement in his two-year stint with the Cats.

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Blake Schlensog, the best key position player outside the AFL and the solution to your club's key position woes: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...ake-schlensog-looms-elite-key-position-player

 

[zadav29]

Where do you see Schlensog’s best position?
Also what are you thoughts on Luke Polson out of WA, had a really game trail game during the week and can seemingly play at either end of the ground. Worth a look with a mid to late pick ?

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you see Schlensog’s best position?
Also what are you thoughts on Luke Polson out of WA, had a really game trail game during the week and can seemingly play at either end of the ground. Worth a look with a mid to late pick ?

Schlensog while he can play key forward or be that relieving ruck who mostly plays forward is definitely for me best suited as a key defender, and specifically at centre half back with a view towards maximising his intercept marking gifts as a rare 2m guy who not only intercepts, but then will find targets long and in the corridor. For me Schlensog is a possible forward, but in defence he's a high conviction pick I'd make any day of the week when looking at his rate of improvement in combination with his production and the variety of ways he impacts games and all the tricks he has.

Polson has been thrown all over the place this season but what is striking for his height is his athleticism and how he moves. He's one who given the lack of good key position players with a strong U19 Championships may even come under consideration as early as the second round. Some WA talent followers may disagree, but he has impressed me more than Bazzo for a point of comparison. If Polson can be had late draft, he's worth a bet for a club looking for a young tall though mid draft at least in my view there are a few others in other positions presenting better value/looking higher probability AFL footballers at this stage.

 

[Noel Gallagher]

Where I'm not seeing Whitfield is I don't see Day as that kind of aerobic athlete or accumulator. Whether it's on a wing, across half-back or half-forward I'm not seeing Day reaching those heights.

If Day is winning B+F's, I don't see Hawthorn being a good side. He's a talent, but presents as a supplementary star, and frankly Whitfield is a supplementary star himself having not at any stage in my view at least been GWS' best. With GWS at one point in time Shane Mumford's team, and later Toby Greene's, with Jeremy Cameron in 2019 the man for that one year.

No disrespect mate but your assessments on both Day and DGB are puzzling to say the least. Myself and quite a few other supporters are pretty confident that both will make you look a bit silly in the years to come. Used to enjoy your assesment's but will follow others more closely now that seem to know what they are talking about

 

[PMBangers]

Wanganeen-Milera isn't Port Adelaide NGA fwiw

 

[Knightmare]

No disrespect mate but your assessments on both Day and DGB are puzzling to say the least. Myself and quite a few other supporters are pretty confident that both will make you look a bit silly in the years to come. Used to enjoy your assesment's but will follow others more closely now that seem to know what they are talking about

I'm never going to give a disingenuous assessment of any players and just tell people what they want to hear because it's what they want to hear. That's not how I operate and that's never how I'm going to operate and something I make no apologies for.

The reality with young players that is often missed, particularly when looking at those early draft talents that cause a lot of excitement early on is in hindsight a lot of the time young players don't live up to expectation. Just look at all the number one overall picks who have failed to live up to the hype, and same can be said of the various pick 2s, 3s etc. And we all know those names, from the key forwards in Watts/Patton/Boyd/McCartin, to rucks in Fraser/Kreuzer to as midfielders Scully/Swallow/Gibbs/Rayner, just from those pick 1s. Some lived up to and exceeded expectation, but on average, you'll find guys in those early years get overhyped and if you assess where the expectations of their development are at that time against where they eventually end up getting to, most don't reach that mark because there is generally unrealistic levels of optimism around player development. It's also the same story with players who do great early days. When you look back at their careers, it's not always those who excel initially who become the best footballers. You only need to look at past Rising Star winners to see that, be it Rhys Palmer, Danyle Pearce, Lewis Taylor or Jaidyn Stephenson. That's the position I'm coming from, with that understanding of the history of the draft and young talent and how infrequently young players live up to the hype and what often at the time appears to be reasonable levels of expectation.

I had Hawthorn supporters going back a couple of years ago now raving about James Worpel to the extent that many were claiming he would become the competition's best midfielder, following on from that best and fairest winning season. My opinion at the time was, he's so physically advanced (he was built like a man at 15/16) and was so physically advanced at such a young age that while he can still make incremental improvements that he most likely won't become one of the competition's absolute top midfielders where I would be saying beyond doubt he's a future All-Australian or making any claims along those lines.

Day and DGB are entirely contrasting cases to Worpel in that they're upside guys who are still early stages physically in their progression and in the case of Day his rate of development has been astounding whereas with DGB given how early days it is, we need a greater volume of work to accurately see that rate of improvement to get a better feel for his ceiling.

Day and DGB, and I don't know how this point is getting missed, but they're talents I believe in and rate highly at this point in time. Neither of them for their ages and stages are playing like scrubs and I see both as possessing very high ceilings.

I can't say I believe Day will be as good as a prime Whitfield. I'd suggest that's not impossible, but unlikely. I would imagine without surveying fans of rival teams that most football watchers would agree with me. There shouldn't be anything radical in that suggestion. And with Day because physically he's still a developing player and is developing rapidly to his credit from someone who was still classy in the u18 ranks, but largely invisible unless you watched out closely for him, to a highly capable AFL footballer. There are several possible career outcomes that could occur depending on how Hawthorn decide to utilise him. I've already spoken about the scenario where if he remains in defence, he could be this generation's equivalent of Kade Simpson who spend time both up on a wing for the first half of his career before settling back in the second half. The main difference I see with Day is as he develops physically, I do think he could go more inside. And maybe he could be something more like a Mitch Duncan, and perhaps not with that level of elite kick as there are levels to it, but I can see his standing in the game by position reaching a similar height if things go right. Maybe Day becomes better than either/or/both, though at this point my suggestion is if he's to reach roughly that level of play and has that kind of career and displays that kind of consistency for such a long time, he's going great. If Day is better than both Simpson and Duncan, and maybe he will be, I'm not going to discount that possibility, I don't see my evaluation as being super far off as they're both great players past and present respectively.

Could DGB become something like Dylan Grimes? Or could he be Jake Lever? Tom Doedee? That's the territory he has the scope to work his way into if things go right and he develops as expected. And we'll have to see how he goes putting on size and muscle progressively to see whether he can become a genuine key defender or whether he's a 3rd tall instead as he could become either one or the other. If DGB can surpass those guys, that's awesome, but as with what I was saying about Day, it would be hard for him to be much better than those guys, because they're all so good by position.

Wanganeen-Milera isn't Port Adelaide NGA fwiw

Not sure why I had down that he is, in checking you're right. Cheers.

 

[nelk boys]

In your perspective what do you look for, in building a premiership midfield?
Currently Hawthorn only have Worpel, Scrimshaw, Day, Newcombe as long term pieces. How many drafts do you think is necessary, if possibly we have 5 draft picks on midfielders in the next two years.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I don't disagree with you athletically, though I'm yet to find or have recommended a better comparison.

Who would you compare Horne to?

Chris25 also interested in your Horne comparison if you have a good one.

IMO , for the older posters .....Horne reminds of a young Peter Motley, who played midfield at Sturt B4 coming to CARL

 

[briztoon]

I'm never going to give a disingenuous assessment of any players and just tell people what they want to hear because it's what they want to hear. That's not how I operate and that's never how I'm going to operate and something I make no apologies for.

The reality with young players that is often missed, particularly when looking at those early draft talents that cause a lot of excitement early on is in hindsight a lot of the time young players don't live up to expectation. Just look at all the number one overall picks who have failed to live up to the hype, and same can be said of the various pick 2s, 3s etc. And we all know those names, from the key forwards in Watts/Patton/Boyd/McCartin, to rucks in Fraser/Kreuzer to as midfielders Scully/Swallow/Gibbs/Rayner, just from those pick 1s. Some lived up to and exceeded expectation, but on average, you'll find guys in those early years get overhyped and if you assess where the expectations of their development are at that time against where they eventually end up getting to, most don't reach that mark because there is generally unrealistic levels of optimism around player development. It's also the same story with players who do great early days. When you look back at their careers, it's not always those who excel initially who become the best footballers. You only need to look at past Rising Star winners to see that, be it Rhys Palmer, Danyle Pearce, Lewis Taylor or Jaidyn Stephenson. That's the position I'm coming from, with that understanding of the history of the draft and young talent and how infrequently young players live up to the hype and what often at the time appears to be reasonable levels of expectation.

I had Hawthorn supporters going back a couple of years ago now raving about James Worpel to the extent that many were claiming he would become the competition's best midfielder, following on from that best and fairest winning season. My opinion at the time was, he's so physically advanced (he was built like a man at 15/16) and was so physically advanced at such a young age that while he can still make incremental improvements that he most likely won't become one of the competition's absolute top midfielders where I would be saying beyond doubt he's a future All-Australian or making any claims along those lines.

Day and DGB are entirely contrasting cases to Worpel in that they're upside guys who are still early stages physically in their progression and in the case of Day his rate of development has been astounding whereas with DGB given how early days it is, we need a greater volume of work to accurately see that rate of improvement to get a better feel for his ceiling.

Day and DGB, and I don't know how this point is getting missed, but they're talents I believe in and rate highly at this point in time. Neither of them for their ages and stages are playing like scrubs and I see both as possessing very high ceilings.

I can't say I believe Day will be as good as a prime Whitfield. I'd suggest that's not impossible, but unlikely. I would imagine without surveying fans of rival teams that most football watchers would agree with me. There shouldn't be anything radical in that suggestion. And with Day because physically he's still a developing player and is developing rapidly to his credit from someone who was still classy in the u18 ranks, but largely invisible unless you watched out closely for him, to a highly capable AFL footballer. There are several possible career outcomes that could occur depending on how Hawthorn decide to utilise him. I've already spoken about the scenario where if he remains in defence, he could be this generation's equivalent of Kade Simpson who spend time both up on a wing for the first half of his career before settling back in the second half. The main difference I see with Day is as he develops physically, I do think he could go more inside. And maybe he could be something more like a Mitch Duncan, and perhaps not with that level of elite kick as there are levels to it, but I can see his standing in the game by position reaching a similar height if things go right. Maybe Day becomes better than either/or/both, though at this point my suggestion is if he's to reach roughly that level of play and has that kind of career and displays that kind of consistency for such a long time, he's going great. If Day is better than both Simpson and Duncan, and maybe he will be, I'm not going to discount that possibility, I don't see my evaluation as being super far off as they're both great players past and present respectively.

Could DGB become something like Dylan Grimes? Or could he be Jake Lever? Tom Doedee? That's the territory he has the scope to work his way into if things go right and he develops as expected. And we'll have to see how he goes putting on size and muscle progressively to see whether he can become a genuine key defender or whether he's a 3rd tall instead as he could become either one or the other. If DGB can surpass those guys, that's awesome, but as with what I was saying about Day, it would be hard for him to be much better than those guys, because they're all so good by position.



Not sure why I had down that he is, in checking you're right. Cheers.

You’re already writing Rayner off! He’s got 3 more years before he’s the same age as Petracca is now.

 

[briztoon]

In your perspective what do you look for, in building a premiership midfield?
Currently Hawthorn only have Worpel, Scrimshaw, Day, Newcombe as long term pieces. How many drafts do you think is necessary, if possibly we have 5 draft picks on midfielders in the next two years.

You have more young players, than the four you mentioned.

 

[Knightmare]

In your perspective what do you look for, in building a premiership midfield?
Currently Hawthorn only have Worpel, Scrimshaw, Day, Newcombe as long term pieces. How many drafts do you think is necessary, if possibly we have 5 draft picks on midfielders in the next two years.

I wouldn't necessarily say that all good midfielders have to come through the draft. Hawthorn have been good traders over time and could well attract rival talent. There could be mature agers. And then how concentrated Hawthorn's approach is towards focusing in on midfielders at the cost of addressing other list issues is yet a further question as additional midfielders isn't all Hawthorn need. So I don't think there can ever be a timeline set, particularly if you're thinking of heavy draft investment, with few things sure through the draft.

Clubs can develop 5 year plans, 3 year plans. Governments can do the same. Plans don't always with certainty yield results, as much as any of us may think we know. It sounds like what would be pretty generic list manager speak, but you really have to improve your list one player at a time and keep chipping away at improving each position inside your best-22 relentlessly until you have one of if not the best, best-22 in the competition. The reason for that is you can go into the draft, take someone with an early pick, but you're just hoping the guy comes good, it's no certainty even if you have pick 1 in a given year. So things don't always work as neatly and clubs rebuilding from basic often have to go through multiple rebuilds to get out of that cycle.

To go through what Hawthorn have firstly. I'm not necessarily convinced Scrimshaw transitions from defence into a midfielder. He moves so well and has the skills, but I'm not convinced he develops those ball winning capabilities. Day may become a midfielder, and I'm growing in optimism he can as he gets stronger, though he remain more-so a wing/flanker and that is up in the air at this point. In any case, he'll needless to say be very valuable for the build ahead.

Worpel is a long term mid and a very good one at that. Then Newcombe the signs are there that he could be, and he has a great deal to develop still also as Day does, with Newcombe having not had the opportunity to develop through the junior pathways. So the midfield I'd consider in the very formative stages from a long term build standpoint and there will undoubtedly be pain ahead.

Through the midfield what I personally enjoy seeing, and it's an ingredient the Hawks in this current generation lack is midfielders who not only are great through the middle, but they're damaging in other positions. I'd be looking for as many high end combo mid/fwds as I can where they're not just versatile enough to play both spots, but impact games in both spots and cause problems in both spots as taggers don't have any answer to those types. You need your first possession winners in there. But then there also needs to be enough skill/speed/pressure/help defense through there to balance things out and complete the midfield.

On the outside what I look for isn't what's necessarily typical. It's fine having your Whitfield's or Gaff's out there. They're really nice players and if you can get someone of that calibre, you would. But I see the game transitioning into a phase whereby on the outside we're going to have what we know traditionally as key position height types on the wings where they have no only the elite endurance, but they're elite readers of the game and contested marks. - Think your Richo or Nick Riewoldt on the wings as a prototype if we're talking about what's optimal and something you go after when you can find it. The talls coming through the ranks, so many of them have the elite endurance bases, just as we're not seeing of Nik Cox, where they can legitimately play the position and better than smaller guys as they have the extra weapons with their contested marking and height/size giving them such a unique and distinctive advantage at their positions.

Apologies if it's a non-answer regarding a timeline, and maybe one really good midfielder can be added per year on average if there is a relative focus towards addressing the midfield. But with how inexact scouting and drafting is, a list manager can say they'll get it done by x time, but more often than not things won't work out so neatly or as hoped with the randomness of results the draft can yield.

You’re already writing Rayner off! He’s got 3 more years before he’s the same age as Petracca is now.

With Rayner is depends on your expectations.

If not for the season ending injury I do believe he would have shown incremental improvement this year, but I don't believe he would have taken a dramatic leap forward into stardom or anything close to.

It looks clear in what Rayner has produced to date that he's definitely not going to get anywhere near certainly prime Petracca and what we have come to enjoy from him last year and this year. And it's not looking like he'll be the best player from his draft either. Are they points you disagree on?

I had hopes coming into his draft year that maybe Rayner could be the kind of player we're seeing Petracca as at the current time.

What a lot of people either forget or missed at the time with Petracca is that in 2017/2018 (his third and fourth seasons - noting that he missed his first season - he was actually already then a near elite combo forward/midfielder). He had that 2019 season where his confidence looked shot and lost, then 2020 obviously reached that uber elite level. That's the benchmark any comparison to Rayner is looking at.

Others may disagree and I don't follow what the consensus media opinions of the day are, but for me Petracca is after Bontempelli that next best player in the competition at the moment. He's also the best player from his draft it's looking like at this time. That's the standard you're setting for Rayner in making that comparison and it's an entirely unrealistic one even if everything goes right for him until now and career's end.

My hope for Rayner, and I remain hopeful that he has a fruitful career as he does possess so much talent and still has the scope to be influential both as a forward and through the midfield, but I'd love for him to hit that level of play Petracca performed to in the 2017/2018 seasons. That's not going to yield best in draft results, but at least it's not a complete fail given the pick invested in him.

 

[Petro]

Hey KM! North Melbourne's choice to continually bring in midfielders with our first round picks has left the club with what I view as the deepest and highest potential young midfield group in the comp. Obviously no one has a crystal ball, but as someone who has followed these boys through their respective drafts and seeing their AFL career's to date, how would you rank North's young midfielders in regards to ceiling/where you project them to end up. I have trouble myself putting them in an order and have found myself constantly reshuffling it.

Players in question: Simpkin, LDU, Stephenson, Thomas, Phillips, Powell

 

[briztoon]

I wouldn't necessarily say that all good midfielders have to come through the draft. Hawthorn have been good traders over time and could well attract rival talent. There could be mature agers. And then how concentrated Hawthorn's approach is towards focusing in on midfielders at the cost of addressing other list issues is yet a further question as additional midfielders isn't all Hawthorn need. So I don't think there can ever be a timeline set, particularly if you're thinking of heavy draft investment, with few things sure through the draft.

Clubs can develop 5 year plans, 3 year plans. Governments can do the same. Plans don't always with certainty yield results, as much as any of us may think we know. It sounds like what would be pretty generic list manager speak, but you really have to improve your list one player at a time and keep chipping away at improving each position inside your best-22 relentlessly until you have one of if not the best, best-22 in the competition. The reason for that is you can go into the draft, take someone with an early pick, but you're just hoping the guy comes good, it's no certainty even if you have pick 1 in a given year. So things don't always work as neatly and clubs rebuilding from basic often have to go through multiple rebuilds to get out of that cycle.

To go through what Hawthorn have firstly. I'm not necessarily convinced Scrimshaw transitions from defence into a midfielder. He moves so well and has the skills, but I'm not convinced he develops those ball winning capabilities. Day may become a midfielder, and I'm growing in optimism he can as he gets stronger, though he remain more-so a wing/flanker and that is up in the air at this point. In any case, he'll needless to say be very valuable for the build ahead.

Worpel is a long term mid and a very good one at that. Then Newcombe the signs are there that he could be, and he has a great deal to develop still also as Day does, with Newcombe having not had the opportunity to develop through the junior pathways. So the midfield I'd consider in the very formative stages from a long term build standpoint and there will undoubtedly be pain ahead.

Through the midfield what I personally enjoy seeing, and it's an ingredient the Hawks in this current generation lack is midfielders who not only are great through the middle, but they're damaging in other positions. I'd be looking for as many high end combo mid/fwds as I can where they're not just versatile enough to play both spots, but impact games in both spots and cause problems in both spots as taggers don't have any answer to those types. You need your first possession winners in there. But then there also needs to be enough skill/speed/pressure/help defense through there to balance things out and complete the midfield.

On the outside what I look for isn't what's necessarily typical. It's fine having your Whitfield's or Gaff's out there. They're really nice players and if you can get someone of that calibre, you would. But I see the game transitioning into a phase whereby on the outside we're going to have what we know traditionally as key position height types on the wings where they have no only the elite endurance, but they're elite readers of the game and contested marks. - Think your Richo or Nick Riewoldt on the wings as a prototype if we're talking about what's optimal and something you go after when you can find it. The talls coming through the ranks, so many of them have the elite endurance bases, just as we're not seeing of Nik Cox, where they can legitimately play the position and better than smaller guys as they have the extra weapons with their contested marking and height/size giving them such a unique and distinctive advantage at their positions.

Apologies if it's a non-answer regarding a timeline, and maybe one really good midfielder can be added per year on average if there is a relative focus towards addressing the midfield. But with how inexact scouting and drafting is, a list manager can say they'll get it done by x time, but more often than not things won't work out so neatly or as hoped with the randomness of results the draft can yield.



With Rayner is depends on your expectations.

If not for the season ending injury I do believe he would have shown incremental improvement this year, but I don't believe he would have taken a dramatic leap forward into stardom or anything close to.

It looks clear in what Rayner has produced to date that he's definitely not going to get anywhere near certainly prime Petracca and what we have come to enjoy from him last year and this year. And it's not looking like he'll be the best player from his draft either. Are they points you disagree on?

I had hopes coming into his draft year that maybe Rayner could be the kind of player we're seeing Petracca as at the current time.

What a lot of people either forget or missed at the time with Petracca is that in 2017/2018 (his third and fourth seasons - noting that he missed his first season - he was actually already then a near elite combo forward/midfielder). He had that 2019 season where his confidence looked shot and lost, then 2020 obviously reached that uber elite level. That's the benchmark any comparison to Rayner is looking at.

Others may disagree and I don't follow what the consensus media opinions of the day are, but for me Petracca is after Bontempelli that next best player in the competition at the moment. He's also the best player from his draft it's looking like at this time. That's the standard you're setting for Rayner in making that comparison and it's an entirely unrealistic one even if everything goes right for him until now and career's end.

My hope for Rayner, and I remain hopeful that he has a fruitful career as he does possess so much talent and still has the scope to be influential both as a forward and through the midfield, but I'd love for him to hit that level of play Petracca performed to in the 2017/2018 seasons. That's not going to yield best in draft results, but at least it's not a complete fail given the pick invested in him.

I attended a lot of Lions preseason training, Rayner looked ready to take much more than a incremental step. Finally had his running up to par, which had been his biggest inhibiting factor to date.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

In your perspective what do you look for, in building a premiership midfield?
Currently Hawthorn only have Worpel, Scrimshaw, Day, Newcombe as long term pieces. How many drafts do you think is necessary, if possibly we have 5 draft picks on midfielders in the next two years.

Worpel, Scrimshaw, Day, Newcombe, Maginness, Cousins (the oldest at 23.)

 

[Sickblue]

feels the the perfect fit for the blues to replace Jones over the next 1-2 years.

Schlensog while he can play key forward or be that relieving ruck who mostly plays forward is definitely for me best suited as a key defender, and specifically at centre half back with a view towards maximising his intercept marking gifts as a rare 2m guy who not only intercepts, but then will find targets long and in the corridor. For me Schlensog is a possible forward, but in defence he's a high conviction pick I'd make any day of the week when looking at his rate of improvement in combination with his production and the variety of ways he impacts games and all the tricks he has.

Polson has been thrown all over the place this season but what is striking for his height is his athleticism and how he moves. He's one who given the lack of good key position players with a strong U19 Championships may even come under consideration as early as the second round. Some WA talent followers may disagree, but he has impressed me more than Bazzo for a point of comparison. If Polson can be had late draft, he's worth a bet for a club looking for a young tall though mid draft at least in my view there are a few others in other positions presenting better value/looking higher probability AFL footballers at this stage.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I wouldn't necessarily say that all good midfielders have to come through the draft. Hawthorn have been good traders over time and could well attract rival talent. There could be mature agers. And then how concentrated Hawthorn's approach is towards focusing in on midfielders at the cost of addressing other list issues is yet a further question as additional midfielders isn't all Hawthorn need. So I don't think there can ever be a timeline set, particularly if you're thinking of heavy draft investment, with few things sure through the draft.

Clubs can develop 5 year plans, 3 year plans. Governments can do the same. Plans don't always with certainty yield results, as much as any of us may think we know. It sounds like what would be pretty generic list manager speak, but you really have to improve your list one player at a time and keep chipping away at improving each position inside your best-22 relentlessly until you have one of if not the best, best-22 in the competition. The reason for that is you can go into the draft, take someone with an early pick, but you're just hoping the guy comes good, it's no certainty even if you have pick 1 in a given year. So things don't always work as neatly and clubs rebuilding from basic often have to go through multiple rebuilds to get out of that cycle.

To go through what Hawthorn have firstly. I'm not necessarily convinced Scrimshaw transitions from defence into a midfielder. He moves so well and has the skills, but I'm not convinced he develops those ball winning capabilities. Day may become a midfielder, and I'm growing in optimism he can as he gets stronger, though he remain more-so a wing/flanker and that is up in the air at this point. In any case, he'll needless to say be very valuable for the build ahead.

Worpel is a long term mid and a very good one at that. Then Newcombe the signs are there that he could be, and he has a great deal to develop still also as Day does, with Newcombe having not had the opportunity to develop through the junior pathways. So the midfield I'd consider in the very formative stages from a long term build standpoint and there will undoubtedly be pain ahead.

Through the midfield what I personally enjoy seeing, and it's an ingredient the Hawks in this current generation lack is midfielders who not only are great through the middle, but they're damaging in other positions. I'd be looking for as many high end combo mid/fwds as I can where they're not just versatile enough to play both spots, but impact games in both spots and cause problems in both spots as taggers don't have any answer to those types. You need your first possession winners in there. But then there also needs to be enough skill/speed/pressure/help defense through there to balance things out and complete the midfield.

On the outside what I look for isn't what's necessarily typical. It's fine having your Whitfield's or Gaff's out there. They're really nice players and if you can get someone of that calibre, you would. But I see the game transitioning into a phase whereby on the outside we're going to have what we know traditionally as key position height types on the wings where they have no only the elite endurance, but they're elite readers of the game and contested marks. - Think your Richo or Nick Riewoldt on the wings as a prototype if we're talking about what's optimal and something you go after when you can find it. The talls coming through the ranks, so many of them have the elite endurance bases, just as we're not seeing of Nik Cox, where they can legitimately play the position and better than smaller guys as they have the extra weapons with their contested marking and height/size giving them such a unique and distinctive advantage at their positions.

Apologies if it's a non-answer regarding a timeline, and maybe one really good midfielder can be added per year on average if there is a relative focus towards addressing the midfield. But with how inexact scouting and drafting is, a list manager can say they'll get it done by x time, but more often than not things won't work out so neatly or as hoped with the randomness of results the draft can yield.



With Rayner is depends on your expectations.

If not for the season ending injury I do believe he would have shown incremental improvement this year, but I don't believe he would have taken a dramatic leap forward into stardom or anything close to.

It looks clear in what Rayner has produced to date that he's definitely not going to get anywhere near certainly prime Petracca and what we have come to enjoy from him last year and this year. And it's not looking like he'll be the best player from his draft either. Are they points you disagree on?

I had hopes coming into his draft year that maybe Rayner could be the kind of player we're seeing Petracca as at the current time.

What a lot of people either forget or missed at the time with Petracca is that in 2017/2018 (his third and fourth seasons - noting that he missed his first season - he was actually already then a near elite combo forward/midfielder). He had that 2019 season where his confidence looked shot and lost, then 2020 obviously reached that uber elite level. That's the benchmark any comparison to Rayner is looking at.

Others may disagree and I don't follow what the consensus media opinions of the day are, but for me Petracca is after Bontempelli that next best player in the competition at the moment. He's also the best player from his draft it's looking like at this time. That's the standard you're setting for Rayner in making that comparison and it's an entirely unrealistic one even if everything goes right for him until now and career's end.

My hope for Rayner, and I remain hopeful that he has a fruitful career as he does possess so much talent and still has the scope to be influential both as a forward and through the midfield, but I'd love for him to hit that level of play Petracca performed to in the 2017/2018 seasons. That's not going to yield best in draft results, but at least it's not a complete fail given the pick invested in him.

Scrimshaw is likely to play as a mid, needs a bit more of a tank but looking at a couple things i'm more than confident if we want him to he will. Played mid as a junior for a starts and has played as a midfielder at times this year and dominating, his composure, kicking (booming left), ability in traffic and to get out with good speed his body size and height all attributes similar to that of Bontempelli. Kicks as good on his right aswell so that's that. Day is also likely can see him being a Pendlebury type with his traffic ability, speed, really good skills on both feet and that Pendlebury time and space where he makes everyone else look slow. Needs a body but can see him slowly moving up depends on his physical development.

I saw you say that Worpel won't be up there in any brownlow conversations and that after his B&F people were giving you crap about him being a multiple brownlow medalist etc. While i don't think he'll be multiple he could def get there, his rate of his improvement has been quite good, when he was a junior he had the body but not the skills or composure, his first year in 2018 as a HFF i loved, literally looked like a 10 year veteran and his skills were actually good. Went into the midfield and seemed a little lost until 2019 when in his 2nd season he broke out (2nd proper season, 1st season he played like 11 games or so.) His skills have improved and each year are getting better, seems to have a really good leg on him and kicks bullets, just sometimes can try too hard and some decision making at times. No doubt he's probably gonna be one of the best in terms of inside work, clearances and that bull. Look at Dusty, didn't do a whole lot for a while, Worpel could be something like that, both have really good legs and can be really good kicks but spray kicks just as much. The bull nature in the midfield is good for both and as kids and early in careers have been proven HFF and deep forward options. It's all about getting a good mix with Worpel which i can see being more of a mid than a fwd rather than Dusty who is more a fwd (unless it's 2017). Hard for Worpel to play as a deep fwd and rest when the ball rarely comes in which Dusty dealt with a fair amount before Richmond improved again.

For mine Worpel can become anything and the sky is the limit. Most might disagree but i can see the talent in multiple positions for this to happen.

Newcombe is a weird one, hasn't had any junior development etc but is already good, tackling no issues, ball winning on the inside, clean hands and pretty damn good skills and a line breaking kick with explosive speed has plenty of upside and with the fact he hadn't had elite developement over the pre season he could (with his first proper afl pre season) come out and explode.

Looking at it again.
We've got 3 top 25 picks, the 2022 picks etc and trades or whatever if we want or need.

If i get what i wanted and we Draft a Finn Callaghan with our first pick, get a mid-fwd lets say Sonsie or Erasmus types in the 2nd round, 2 if we can't find a good key defender or ruck at the 2nd round aswell and then look at 2022 in terms of maybe 1 more mid look at a small fwd this year or 2022 and that key defender.

Think it's really key defender and a couple mids. Key fwds looks good, small fwds look good get in another small/medium aswell could do some good like a Breust. Don't need any back pocket or half backs we're stocked there and our wings look good. Ruck to develop behind Reeves etc.

Future looks brighter than most think with 9 of our best 22 out against Melbourne in the draw it will a pretty rapid rise, 1-2 years just outside, just inside, contending, winning etc.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM! North Melbourne's choice to continually bring in midfielders with our first round picks has left the club with what I view as the deepest and highest potential young midfield group in the comp. Obviously no one has a crystal ball, but as someone who has followed these boys through their respective drafts and seeing their AFL career's to date, how would you rank North's young midfielders in regards to ceiling/where you project them to end up. I have trouble myself putting them in an order and have found myself constantly reshuffling it.

Players in question: Simpkin, LDU, Stephenson, Thomas, Phillips, Powell

If I'm looking at who will be the best player rather than who is best today, my order: Simpkin, LDU and Thomas for me are a clear top-3 with each of those picks clear-cut to me at their respective spots. Phillips, Powell and Stephenson the next 3. Phillips and Powell are hard to separate and both should improve but Phillips with his worth ethic and leadership capabilities I'll give the slight edge to if I could go one or the other over the long run. Stephenson has his good games but remains erratic and I don't see being as consistent or reliable of a contributor as the others, though I still do value him and like that he can also impact up forward.

I attended a lot of Lions preseason training, Rayner looked ready to take much more than a incremental step. Finally had his running up to par, which had been his biggest inhibiting factor to date.

I'm aware of the same preseason reports of Rayner regarding his running gains and far improved work ethic. And absolutely as per your thoughts it's absolutely where he needed to improve. It's speculation how much he may have improved, and I can only speak of my own expectations, but I was looking for Rayner to move into the 16-18d per game territory while maintaining his 1 goal per game mark. If you were to quantify the step you were hoping Rayner would take this year had he not gotten hurt, what precisely do you believe Rayner could have managed this year?

Have your expectations of Rayner for 2022 diminished at all? Or do you remain optimistic he will become another Petracca? And more specifically something like the Petracca we saw last year and again this year?

As per my prior post, I still give Rayner a chance to reach that 2017-2018 Petracca level, and sure Rayner is looked set to play a greater proportion of his minutes through the midfield, but in terms of impact and performance, that's nonetheless around where I see Rayner getting to injuries permitting.

feels the the perfect fit for the blues to replace Jones over the next 1-2 years.

Schlensog is the guy I'd be bringing in as a Jones successor, if indeed I felt one were necessary (and I'd take him anyway probably as a best available late draft), though I do feel Jones has more than another 1-2 years left in him. Jones is still playing really good footy, both intercepting at a high level, but then beating his direct opponent so consistently in 1v1s. He remains to me one of the competition's most underrated key defenders.

Scrimshaw is likely to play as a mid, needs a bit more of a tank but looking at a couple things i'm more than confident if we want him to he will. Played mid as a junior for a starts and has played as a midfielder at times this year and dominating, his composure, kicking (booming left), ability in traffic and to get out with good speed his body size and height all attributes similar to that of Bontempelli. Kicks as good on his right aswell so that's that. Day is also likely can see him being a Pendlebury type with his traffic ability, speed, really good skills on both feet and that Pendlebury time and space where he makes everyone else look slow. Needs a body but can see him slowly moving up depends on his physical development.

I saw you say that Worpel won't be up there in any brownlow conversations and that after his B&F people were giving you crap about him being a multiple brownlow medalist etc. While i don't think he'll be multiple he could def get there, his rate of his improvement has been quite good, when he was a junior he had the body but not the skills or composure, his first year in 2018 as a HFF i loved, literally looked like a 10 year veteran and his skills were actually good. Went into the midfield and seemed a little lost until 2019 when in his 2nd season he broke out (2nd proper season, 1st season he played like 11 games or so.) His skills have improved and each year are getting better, seems to have a really good leg on him and kicks bullets, just sometimes can try too hard and some decision making at times. No doubt he's probably gonna be one of the best in terms of inside work, clearances and that bull. Look at Dusty, didn't do a whole lot for a while, Worpel could be something like that, both have really good legs and can be really good kicks but spray kicks just as much. The bull nature in the midfield is good for both and as kids and early in careers have been proven HFF and deep forward options. It's all about getting a good mix with Worpel which i can see being more of a mid than a fwd rather than Dusty who is more a fwd (unless it's 2017). Hard for Worpel to play as a deep fwd and rest when the ball rarely comes in which Dusty dealt with a fair amount before Richmond improved again.

For mine Worpel can become anything and the sky is the limit. Most might disagree but i can see the talent in multiple positions for this to happen.

Newcombe is a weird one, hasn't had any junior development etc but is already good, tackling no issues, ball winning on the inside, clean hands and pretty damn good skills and a line breaking kick with explosive speed has plenty of upside and with the fact he hadn't had elite developement over the pre season he could (with his first proper afl pre season) come out and explode.

Looking at it again.
We've got 3 top 25 picks, the 2022 picks etc and trades or whatever if we want or need.

If i get what i wanted and we Draft a Finn Callaghan with our first pick, get a mid-fwd lets say Sonsie or Erasmus types in the 2nd round, 2 if we can't find a good key defender or ruck at the 2nd round aswell and then look at 2022 in terms of maybe 1 more mid look at a small fwd this year or 2022 and that key defender.

Think it's really key defender and a couple mids. Key fwds looks good, small fwds look good get in another small/medium aswell could do some good like a Breust. Don't need any back pocket or half backs we're stocked there and our wings look good. Ruck to develop behind Reeves etc.

Future looks brighter than most think with 9 of our best 22 out against Melbourne in the draw it will a pretty rapid rise, 1-2 years just outside, just inside, contending, winning etc.

Worpel actually was someone I rated a great deal higher in his draft than he went, rating him at 23 when he actually went at 45. And he's worth a lot more now than pick 45 or 23 obviously.

I agree with you on Worpel being a dramatic improver by foot. As a junior he always had the penetration, but to Hawthorn's credit, and I don't know how they develop guys into good kicks, but they've made Worpel into a very good kick in no time as with many others past and present.

I don't see Worpel ever become Dusty or Dusty-esque. He has similar power. But he doesn't have any of the same forward craft or impact forward of centre be it scoring his own goals or setting up teammates. Also as a midfielder I don't see Worpel ever quite hitting that best in the competition level stoppage player as someone I see likely to be pretty consistently that next level down from that. Worpel could hit that 300 cp and 140 cl mark which are still elite markers, and he may even have a few seasons around that territory, but I'm not sure he necessarily hits the uber elite 350 cp+ and 160 cl+ markers to quantify specifically the heights I feel Worpel can reach which is still needless to say exceptional.

As a midfielder I'm always after guys who can win their own ball. Scrimshaw never was that guy and I'm not sure if he ever well. He's one where I'll believe it when I see it, as I'm yet to see it in the juniors, in the NEAFL/VFL or AFL. Completely agree re. his movement through traffic and kick. But I'm not sure as a ball winner he'll ever make those inroads and get to the necessary level to make that transition.

Day may with the added size and strength become that midfielder. That can't be discounted. We'll have to see what he looks like once he gets stronger.

If Hawthorn like Jeka forward, and he's someone Hawthorn have done remarkably well to develop to where he is, I'd be tempted by Jackson Callow as a key defence solution. All his attributes point towards him become an exceptional key defender. Hawthorn could pretty easily make that positional switch, take a Blake Schlensog as a mature age key defender late draft, maybe a Toby Conway as a ruckman mid-draft and prioritise midfielders with the other picks if Hawthorn are after a no frills offseason and mostly just focused in on the draft.

 

[Turbocat]

The best key position player outside the AFL has emerged and looms as both a plug and play piece and a long-term answer. A former Geelong Category B rookie, Blake Schlensog was unlucky to be delisted at the conclusion of the 2020 season, following rapid improvement in his two-year stint with the Cats.

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Blake Schlensog, the best key position player outside the AFL and the solution to your club's key position woes: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...ake-schlensog-looms-elite-key-position-player

Interesting as Geelong are almost at the stage of needing a replacement KPB. One querry, as he was delisted there is speculation that he is a FA..can you clarify if he hast to be drafted or could simply pick a club as a DFA