Preview R14: Changes vs. Sydney Swans

[Bob Neil]

No Curtin?

Oops! I'll amend.

 

[BACCS]

Any chance of getting that same selection leak content this week Trigger13?

 

[WheresGroomgone]

I'm envious of your neat handwriting. Bad luck about the job though. Maybe you could move to parts of the world that have right to left written language. You're a natural!

I think the days of sign writers actually using their hands are long gone - the old shop window signs at butchers etc. are a memory now.

my mate who is a sign writer still has the gig at ovals such as Adelaide doing the on grass signs but apart from that it's probably 95% computer driven these days.

 

[MsTopG]

I know they're not all returned from injury yet but here's the team I'd like to see us to focus on for the second half of the season.

FF: Pedlar - Fogarty - Murray (Toby)
HF: Taylor - Thilthorpe - Cook
C: Dawson - Soligo - Nankervis
FOLL: Himmelberg - Rachele - Rankine
HB: Curtin - Murray (Nick) - Michalanney
FB: Worrell - Butts - Hinge
INT: Borlase - Berry - Dowling - Schoenberg
SUB: Keays

Look to have a greater spread of midfield time with all of Soligo, Rachele, Rankine, Pedlar, Taylor & Dawson spending ~50% in the guts with the rest on a wing, flank or pocket.
Walker - rest his back so you can make a proper call as to whether he's got one more year in him rather than just wheeling him out half-cooked two out of every three weeks.
O'Brien - he's been a good servant but he's run his race and we now need to trade him out for whatever value we can get and bring in an upgrade (Ned Moyle?). In the meantime let's try something different and run with 2 mobile forward/rucks and see what that looks like.
Smith - retired
McHenry/Murphy - trade/delist one and keep the other as depth
Burgess/Gollant - trade/delist one and keep the other as depth
Keane - assuming the rumours are true then I reckon (i) he does have genuine trade value and (ii) we do have a surplus of KPDs so could afford to offload one.
Crouch / Laird - trade one and keep the other as depth.
Jone/Sholl - trade one and keep the other as depth.
Parnell - delist
Bond & Ryan - try to squeeze them in for 2-4 games if Hamill/Michalanney are injured or need a rest.

We gotta keep Keane. Butts and Borlase are average. I would say the only reason he may leave would be if we lowball him. If they loose another player we need they are bloody amateurs and we are officially a feeder club.

 

[LoBu]

Agree.
I used what I could find re: 0-4 starts to show that historically it's been very VERY difficult to make Finals after a 0-4 start.
But the probability numbers (which rely upon P(win) = P(loss) = 1/2) are probably diminished by our 4-8-1 start, plus our chances of beating sides all ready IN the 8 would be < 1/2.
In raw numbers, based on 4-8-1 this season, Crows win record is 4/13 etc.
I realise only other Maths nerds will find it interesting.

Yes agreed, very difficult.

The problem is now that in a equalisation era of AFL the difference between a slow starting team and a poor team is harder to differentiate.

When the difference from 14th to 8th is 2 wins with 10 games to play, a slow start is more manageable than ever.

This may lead to more teams to bridge the gap like Sydney last year and possibly Hawthorn this year.

The old brown paper bag era didn't allow teams like Carlton and pies to drop down very often.

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[CrowBloke]

The problem is now that in a equalisation era of AFL the difference between a slow starting team and a poor team is harder to differentiate.

Yes; very good point. I think both Collingwood and Brisbane started 0-3 (surprisingly), but only the Pies have bounced back.
Looks like Brisbane and Adelaide have been slow starters and poor teams this year.

When the difference from 14th to 8th is 2 wins with 10 games to play, a slow start is more manageable than ever.

I'm not sure what you mean by "manageable".
Hawthorn and the Saints are weighed down by poor %.
To make the 8, I'd be surprised if the Top 8 didn't come from the current 1 - 11th placed sides. with Melbourne most likely not to make it (% and Petracca out).

Crows' season is over/kaput.
It's time for Nicks to select for player development and lowest Ladder poz, then hope we choose a good, ready-to-play mid. Or two.

 

[RUNVS]

You guys mind if we pinch Dawson for the rest of the season?

Having him down back with Blakey setting up attacks would be really useful

 

[Trigger13]

Any chance of getting that same selection leak content this week Trigger13?

I’m going to try. What I will say is that my source is adamant that Smith got a late reprieve after cook pulled out. Will be interesting to see if Smith plays or not.

 

[Rabish Binney]

You guys mind if we pinch Dawson for the rest of the season?

Having him down back with Blakey setting up attacks would be really useful

Only if you give us Gulden, Heeney & Warner.

And Amartey as well please.

 

[Crow till I die]

You guys mind if we pinch Dawson for the rest of the season?

Having him down back with Blakey setting up attacks would be really useful

You don't need him as you guys have been flying since you lost to us at Adelaide oval last year

 

[Eagleboy2011]

You guys mind if we pinch Dawson for the rest of the season?

Having him down back with Blakey setting up attacks would be really useful

When you watch the match, you might swear a few of our players/coaches may already be playing for your team.

 

[CrowBloke]

Laird isn't it? Doesn't look like McHenry.

Yeah, probably Laird who attended the bounce just before ROB shanked the kick over there.

 

[FR0GGY]

That is ROB's one wood - able to run move around the ground for the entire game.

Get past that and he really has no strings to his bow.

No one is suggesting Strawnie will be a top line AFL ruck, it is more that ROB is next to useless apart from his tank.

Strawnie has played stuff all AFL, I'd like to give him a decent run of games to see if he can improve.

How good is it when you have a player so fit that he doesn’t come off, we get the benefit of ordinary being out there for longer.

 

[FR0GGY]

If that happens get set to be disappointed.

We are disappointed now.

 

[Ham]

How good is it when you have a player so fit that he doesn’t come off, we get the benefit of ordinary being out there for longer.

If ROB was dropped to SANFL to work on areas of his game, is 1 week enough? Last week kind of seems like a waste of time and abit weak if he is recalled again now that Strachan is available again. Even if Toby Murray and Strachan more evenly split ruck duties, lets get ROB confident clunking marks again so he comes back better for it.


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[FR0GGY]

If ROB was dropped to SANFL to work on areas of his game, is 1 week enough? Last week kind of seems like a waste of time and abit weak if he is recalled again now that Strachan is available again. Even if Toby Murray and Strachan more evenly split ruck duties, lets get ROB confident clunking marks again so he comes back better for it.


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I wouldn’t have him back in our jumper at all ever, but that’s just me.
But no 1 week back in the sanfl with DE of 50% is not good enough.

 

[Doctor B]

Jeff White

Jeff White

Age

47

Ht

195cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.5

4star

K

8.2

3star

HB

6.3

4star

HO

18.7

5star

No current season stats available

D

6.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

1.6

2star

HO

3.0

5star

looks at teams ruck/centre bounce set ups.

Looks at Grundy/Sydney vs Carlton here

 

[fuic08]

I’m going to try. What I will say is that my source is adamant that Smith got a late reprieve after cook pulled out. Will be interesting to see if Smith plays or not.

It's disappointing still, once the decision was made to drop him they should've stuck with it and picked someone else to come in for Cook.

 

[LoBu]

Yes; very good point. I think both Collingwood and Brisbane started 0-3 (surprisingly), but only the Pies have bounced back.
Looks like Brisbane and Adelaide have been slow starters and poor teams this year.

I'm not sure what you mean by "manageable".
Hawthorn and the Saints are weighed down by poor %.
To make the 8, I'd be surprised if the Top 8 didn't come from the current 1 - 11th placed sides. with Melbourne most likely not to make it (% and Petracca out).

Crows' season is over/kaput.
It's time for Nicks to select for player development and lowest Ladder poz, then hope we choose a good, ready-to-play mid. Or two.

By manageable, I meant achievable I guess.

Good point on the low percent - its could well be the key indicating metric when considering a slow start vs a poor team.

Adelaide being a little exceptional in this space, an ok percentage, but a poor start with continued poor form means play the kids, get a gun mid (finally - either through trade or draft) - and reset into next year at full strength for a crack at the 8.

 

[Ham]

I remember Nicks saying Keays plays best when he has an assignment; now taggers are back in vogue, wouldnt mind seeing him prove his value again, especially if Sydney’s midfield will destroy us


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[Kane McGoodwin]

I remember Nicks saying Keays plays best when he has an assignment; now taggers are back in vogue, wouldnt mind seeing him prove his value again, especially if Sydney’s midfield will destroy us


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Play him on Blakey.

 

[CromradeCromulent]

For what it's worth 10 news Adelaide said that Rob likely stays out this week.

 

[BACCS]

For what it's worth 10 news Adelaide said that Rob likely stays out this week.

I had a feeling that might be the case when the club said Strachan was only subbed for precautionary reasons last week (as in, they were happy with his game and wanted to see more of him at AFL level, so didn't risk further injury).

 

[BACCS]

Getting a sense these might be the changes (if Smith was indeed an out last week and they haven't flipped on this stance since):
Murray for Smith (Keane to play the 3rd tall/loose role)
Tex for Burgess
Rankine for McHenry
Cook for Berry
Pedlar for Murphy (they've been bullish on him all week, a bit like before Curtin's debut)
Sholl or Jones relegated to sub

Not sure Taylor will get a look in if they go with those 5 changes already, I just can't see them budging on Laird as a midfielder yet unfortunately.

 

[weekend at bernies]

I remember Nicks saying Keays plays best when he has an assignment; now taggers are back in vogue, wouldnt mind seeing him prove his value again, especially if Sydney’s midfield will destroy us


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Its taken Nicks how long to realise this... every week put him on the most damaging Half Back. It aint rocker science.