Autopsy Roast and toast vs Hawthorn and changes for Essendon

[smasha]

Pickett,the wrecking ball!

 

[CASEYS9420]

Tarrants got to be Balta's replacement right? and Gibcus to replace Biggie. Not interested at all in 203cm /100kg Peter Wright having a 1 night only
Mason Cox

46

Mason Cox

Age

33

Ht

211cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.7

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.3

2star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.8

5star

/Aaron Naughton

33

Aaron Naughton

Age

25

Ht

196cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

2.5

3star

T

0.8

1star

G

0.5

4star

D

12.8

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

0.0

1star

goal fest extravaganza kicked on us because we decided to select 2 skinny under 10 game kids.

 

[Rubber Hips]

Whilst I think the changes will just be

out Balta
in Gibcus

there might be another spot available should players likeS onsie, Stack, Cumber blitz in todays game

VFL v Pox Hill at 12pm

AFL - News, Fixtures, Scores & Results - AFL.com.au

 

[tigersnag]

This is all true but the reality is we have played 3 top 8 teams and lost to all of them, and played 6 bottom 8 teams and lost to 1.

Melbourne have won all their games and never looked like losing a game. The quality of their football is undeniably better than ours by a country mile.

It's a nice thing to see us winning most of the games we should be winning, but we are doing it purely on the back of older players & the reality is i think our ceiling is around 7th - maybe as high as 5th if other teams collapse.

The teams i look at that are the real test for us is Brisbane, Sydney, Geelong, Freo & Port. This year their is more "bad teams" than good, lots of teams are pumping the kids more than normal this year - playing 10+ kids under 23

So far our record is 0/1 against the elite (Melb) 1 out of 3 against "50/50 " ( Dogs, Blues, Saints) & 4/5 against "Should wins" ( Adl, GWS, Pies, Hawks, Eagles).

Our remaining games a

1 vs Elite (Brisbane)
6 vs 50/50 (Port, Freo, Blues, Swans(away) Port(away), Cats
6 vs "should wins" ( Bombers, Suns (away) Norf, Hawks, Eagles, Bombers )

If i had to bet i would say we are likely to win 6 to 7 of these - putting us on 11 or 12 wins which is dead smack on 11th to 7th mark based on the past decade. One element we do have playing in our favour is that we only have 3 games away & only 1 of them is to a higher end 50/50 team in the Swans, while the other 2 are to borderline "50/50-should wins" Port & Suns

I did a similar estimate like this last season in the now infamous "Top 4" thread around this same time of the season - i estimated we were a massive chance to miss the finals, and likely would finish 8th & top 4 was a near impossibility sighting that if we were to take in the "likely to falter" factor, all signs pointed to us being the team to likely falter worst. Got widely attacked over it, but it was fairly spot on - if anything i overestimated our final falling spot.

I think our chances of completely faltering like last year is far less - but i also think our opportunity to be a bolter is far less too as we are not seeing tremendous growth out of or younger players - the performances are coming off the back of known quantities, who have linear declining from over the past few years due to age - but also because these players are at a higher risk of sustaining injuries. Our biggest variable to finish stronger than expect is Dusty going full god mode, which is quite possible

You sound like the smartest guy in the room...

You didn't mention injuries. They play/and will play a massive role in the lead up to finals. Did so last year and will do so again.

Of course Melbourne are favourites and Brisbane is behind them, other than that you could throw a blanket over about 10 teams which means there's opportunity.

50/50 Port and Freo at the MCG. I'll be absolutely stunned if the bookmakers think so, but you'd clearly know better.

Not seeing tremendous growth out of our young players?

There was pretty much no VFL last year and that has clearly staggered growth. When you win 3 flags in 4 years it means the team is pretty hard to break into.
We drafted 5 kids in the top 30. One of which had played every game until this week.

Every top 8 side is relying on their Senior core.

Freo would be the only side that is even a slight exception with young midfielders. But even they have Ryan 26, Walters 31, Mundy 36, Colyer 30, Lobb 29, Wilson 29, Fyfe 30.

Sydney have young players but largely relies on a senior core. Their average age is 24.7 and we're 25.1.

The other top 8 sides:

Melb - 24.5
Bris - 24.5
Freo - 24.1
Syd - 24.7
StKilda - 24.8
Carlton - 24.2
Cats - 25.7
Tigers - 25.1

 

[jreesosb]

Unconvincing win against an undermanned team but glad to take the 4 points. It was a missed opportunity to pick up some valuable percentage. Had a familiar tone about it with an umpire-driven momentum surge. Every game where a team has had a run-on against us this year has seen a succession of questionable umpiring decisions, today was no different in the 2nd quarter. We got back into it on the back of some flukey goals, I wouldn't want to depend on those types of goals when playing against a top 4 team.

Love Lynch's form, Dusty's miracle goal and both of our ruckmen who were dominant. Defence was ordinary and leaked goals, Hawks had only 45 Inside 50s and still managed 14 goals which suggests our defensive structure is not working optimally. Nyuon is not ready and could have been a costly selection, not sure when Balta was injured but he was ordinary as well. Castagna's selfishness knows no bounds and for a horrible moment the West Coast game from last year flashed before me when he could have passed it off to a teammate but instead decided to attempt the goal of the year. Will venture down to Box Hill tomorrow to watch the VFL, will be watching the defence carefully.

Write up a short report of the vfl if you can?

 

[STRUGGLETOWN EST1885]

Dusty or Nank for goal of the round. Geez, that's a tough one but with all due respect to the GOAT I'm going for Nank. Just watch the replay. 2nd qtr, we need a lift and Nank single-handedly muscles the ball out of the ruck and slams it through. Brilliant

 

[Lsta062]

Hawthorn are as random as they come in the AFL. They’re one of those bottom sides that I’m just happy Richmond beat consistently because they can basically take it up to any team (including Melbourne) if they are switched on. Only St Kilda seem to smash them on a regular basis.

That said, Hawthorn wasn’t the only side that kicked a lot of goals in the 4th to cut our percentage. Even West Coast scored 4.1 in the last quarter after being restricted to only 4 goals in the first 3 quarters. It’s worth noting that the lowest inside 50 efficiency percentage (scoring shots per inside 50) that we had against us all year including preseason was GWS in Round 2, which was 42%. We used to restrict teams to an efficiency below 30% quite regularly.

Is it a fitness thing or is it a motivation thing? I’m not sure, but to me it has something to do with our defenders. We dominated the midfield after quarter time but Hawthorn still had an overall efficiency inside 50 of 53%.

As great as our offensive system/tall forwards have been, our defensive system/tall defenders haven’t been great. We just need to work out whether it is our overall defensive system that needs to change or our tall defenders that are out of form/aren’t syncing well with each other.

 

[tigersnag]

Genuine question: who does the club need to suck off to win a htb for the first time this year?

Is it Razor Ray? Brad Scott? All the way up to Gill?

Have we been given one all year?

Didn't you know umpire boss Brad baby teeth Scott said before the season started that they'd be cracking down on holding the ball as it's an easy tweak and will help with congestion to open the flow of the game up.

That lasted for 1 or 2 rounds before drifting back to how it was. Another inept display from the laughable organisation that is the AFL.

Yes the rule (whatever that is) is amazingly adjudicated differently for us and they're not even trying to hide it.

Dimma is onto them "We tackled well but weren't rewarded"

 

[Groupie_]

biggy might go ok vs drugs but will get a massive bath against the swans

 

[KJpie]

Did anybody else read this the way i did ?

Or am i the only person here with a dirty mind

Well played
Hope you all celebrated your win last night. Next goal is to lock in a top 4 spot where you can make a serious challenge.
Hope the list stays healthy and wish you all the best for the rest of the season.

 

[Groupie_]

George’s goal was the most important of the match

It got my multi home

good now shout us all sunday morning maccas brekky

and hotcakes

 

[Groupie_]

Genuine question: who does the club need to suck off to win a htb for the first time this year?

Is it Razor Ray? Brad Scott? All the way up to Gill?

Have we been given one all year?

nah hawks flog ticked off the umpiring nothing to see here

 

[tigs2010]

nah hawks flog ticked off the umpiring nothing to see here

Toiges undizipline

 

[tony__montana]

Well played
Hope you all celebrated your win last night. Next goal is to lock in a top 4 spot where you can make a serious challenge.
Hope the list stays healthy and wish you all the best for the rest of the season.

Top 4 a bridge too far I reckon

 

[tigs2010]

Ffs we are averaging -10 frees per game and we didn’t even give one away when Mansell buried Guineapigs skull in the sacred turf.

 

[Groupie_]

I would play tarrant over biggie

 

[Charlie Pannam]

I want Stacky in - want to see his Dreamtime pre-game ceremony dance again

 

[KJpie]

Top 4 a bridge too far I reckon

Your as good a chance as anyone outside the 4 and gathering momentum.
I can't see Sydney holding on to 4th spot and you are only 4 points outside the 4.
Your percentage is creeping higher each win and is currently higher than both Carlscum and the Saints who are just the 4 points in front ATM

 

[Groupie_]

Your as good a chance as anyone outside the 4 and gathering momentum.
I can't see Sydney holding on to 4th spot and you are only 4 points outside the 4.
Your percentage is creeping higher each win and is currently higher than both Carlscum and the Saints who are just the 4 points in front

make an account for your wife bro so we can all talk footy

 

[KJpie]

make an account for your wife bro so we can all talk footy

Not a chance, BF is my away time from the trouble and strife

 

[Livonski]

Nice to get a win again. Dion Prestia & Toby drove the win with 16 clearances between them & as i have said before, our fate will almost entirely be driven on how well we can compete in that area. In games like today where the opponent field an entire Ruck, Followers, midfield & wings of kids - we should always win easily. This week was another example as well that no team has relied on its 1 superstar more than we have with Dusty. The guy was a gift from god.

The goals we leaked to nearly lose it at the end were a definite downer to the game & overall, much like last week - it was a game we should definitely be winning without any trouble - the Hawks had ELEVEN players 23 or under to our 3, including their entire midfield fleet. That along with them losing Gunston early in the game - we really should have won by far, far more.

Each week we see the dual forward role of Jack & Tom is our best option, they are in fine form together. Our fate is still completely dependant of older or injury prone players like Prestia, Dusty, Lambert, Cotchin & Jack. Our results are improving but unsure if our future is. Baker down back is a beast, 12 contested possessions, 20 pressure acts - 10 in the defensive half with over 300 MG's + 7 tackles- the guys is a legit 2 way machine. So much better down back than up forward, this also allowed Dan to spend more time up the field as noted by his 3 scoring shots + 8 score involvements, the 3rd highest on our team.

The backline is still insanely leaky and unreliable. Its a massive concern to me that even with us smashing the clearance and midfield battle. How we can let a bunch of kids get a score every >2 times in their forward 50 while getting a whopping 55% efficiency should have alarm bells sounding off, a good team will beat us by 100 at some point i feel. It completely debunks all the horseshit that this was happening purely due to our midfield lacking work rate pushing back - the problem is CLEARLY a breakdown in our backline system. It is not working & once we play a better, more experienced team it will show.


Best quite easily for me - Prestia, Baker, Dusty, Bolton, Lynch, Toby

Still not seeing any reason to think we are better than 7th-12th - we. are only beating teams that are loaded up with kids, or completely our of confidence. Based on that, i expect us to take care of the Bombers who definitely have a "lil of Column A, a lil of Column B" in that area.

With Balta likely out i would be probably brining in Tarrant & Gibcus. Tarrant is slow and not ideal, but will be needed against Peter Wright. Without Balta we run the risk of him kicking a bag. A part of me whats to roll the dice and allow Biggy a crack at him instead, give the kids a boast in his development

That post reeks of “I haven’t seen the game” again, RJK.
We didn’t rely at all on Dusty yesterday. Watch the game.
Nank, Bolton, Prestia, Baker, Lynch.
Backline wasn’t that bad. You’ve got to understand that our ball movement this year is enabling big scores for, which we’ve been screaming about. Unfortunately it creates carnage if turned over in the wrong spot. Any side will do that and the Hawks, as you would be aware, have been a fast moving, attacking side all year.
And make no mistake, Lewis and Koschitzke will be/are gun forwards. Plus Breust.
Great win, plenty to work on. We want be firing on at year end…not now.

 

[tigers12]

I thought edwards did a few good things when he came on with a few tap ons and moving it forward I think he should be a pivotal bench player

 

[joelsyt]

Rewatching the match, how is it that Bucks understood completely why Jack got his free kick in the first for our first goal and Lyon does not? Has he been out of the game that long? The man doesn’t have a clue.

 

[sante]

In - Tarrant and Gibcus
Out - Biggy and Balta

 

[Juke]

Most pleasing thing for me was the team laying 75 tackles, and it was obvious that we have improved in that area.

Hard to know what to make of this team ATM.