mattys123
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2015 AFL PREMIERSHIP SEASON
ROUND 20
COLLINGWOOD vs SYDNEY
FRIDAY AUGUST 14TH
7.50PM
S.C.G.
BROADCAST GUIDE;
http://www.afl.com.au/broadcastguide
WEATHER
Forecast; http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml
Radar; http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR713.loop.shtml
ROUND 20
COLLINGWOOD vs SYDNEY
FRIDAY AUGUST 14TH
7.50PM
S.C.G.
BROADCAST GUIDE;
http://www.afl.com.au/broadcastguide
WEATHER
Forecast; http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml
Radar; http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR713.loop.shtml
It's now or never for the Collingwood Football Club. The biggest club in the land finds itself in a sudden death position with four rounds of the home and away season remaining. This all came about after a six game losing streak that saw the Magpies drop from the top four to outside the top 8. That streak was finally broken last week with a scrappy win over Carlton but that was just the first step in a five game stretch where no mistakes can be made and any loss will not be recovered.
The second stage of this almost impossible task will take place on Friday night in Sydney when Collingwod travels north to face the Swans. Sydney themselves are in a fight of their own, trying to hold on to a top 4 spot which had seemed like a certainty for most of this season. The Swans now find themselves in fifth needing to rely on other teams to lose for them to get into that double chance position.
These two do have some history with a 2007 elimination final win to the Magpies and a rather famous 2012 preliminary final victory to the Swans. I say famous because the Swans would go on to win the premiership the following week. The most interesting aspect of their recent history though is that Sydney haven't defeated the Magpies in a regular season matchup in Sydney since 2005. The catch to that is that all of those losses came at the Olympic stadium out at Homebush will this game will be played at the Sydney Cricket Ground. The Swans will be hoping a change in venue brings an end to the losing streak at home versus the Pies. At the beginning of this season the Magpies aim would have been to play finals while the Swans aim would have been to finish in the top four. The loser of this game almost certainly will fail to achieve their goal for season 2015.
PREVIOUS FORM
Collingwood's form seems to be heading on a downward trajectory, even if they did manage to break their losing streak against the Blues last week. After the mid season bye the Magpies put up gallant efforts in defeats to the Hawks and Dockers before a heart breaking loss against Port Adelaide. Since then they haven't had the same fight in them as that losing streak extended to a decade worse 6 games. The breaking of the streak over the Blues last week wasn't impressive either, the Pies simply defeated a team incapable of winning a game at the moment. There are some players in form though with Dane Swan leading the way with a 41 possession, 3 goal game in the win. To beat Sydney though Collingwood will have to regain some of it's old form, because this current output won't get the job done.
Sydney's form has been patchy at best since their mid season bye. The problem for the Swans seems to be that every time then run into quality opposition they can't match that level for four quarters. They have won 3 of their 7 games since the bye but the only impressive performance came two weeks back against the Crows at the SCG. The loss last week down at Geelong by 32 points left Sydney in 5th spot and needing to win every one of their remaining four games to get back into one of those vital top four positions. Like the Pies though Sydney still has a few players in form with Dan Hannebery and Josh Kennedy leading the way in the last few weeks. The Swans will have to figure out a way to emulate their performance against the Crows or else their top 4 hopes may slip away quickly.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
For the second season in a row Collingwood is likely to miss the finals solely based on their performance in the second half of the season. While it's sometimes dangerous to draw comparisons between seasons there's an eery similarity between 2014 and 2015 for the Magpies. In both seasons injuries and tight losses have robbed Collingwood of momentum. The win over Carlton last week may well have just been patching up a hole in a sinking ship but it does give the Pies some hope leading into the last 4 games. The equation is now simple, win the last four games and play finals. That starts this week and there is some good news around for the Pies going into this crucial game. Travis Cloke, the leagues' best exponent of the contested mark, is likely to return and for the first time this season partner Ben Reid up forward. For the first time in almost 12 months Reid lined up in the seniors for the Pies last week and straight away showed why he'd been missed so much with 4 goals. Add either youngster Darcy Moore or Jesse White (depending on selection), small forwards Alex Fasolo, Jamie Elliott and Jarryd Blair and for once the Magpies forward line will look dangerous. Not that Collingwood haven't been able to score this year in fact only 4 sides have a higher total score after 18 games then Collingwood. What that does show however is that it won't take much for the 2016 version of the Magpies to make a dramatic move up the ladder.
For now though the club will be solely focused on this game, and with Cloke named to return a few youngsters had to make way. Jordan De Goey returns but Brayden Maynard and Matthew Scaharenberg were both omitted. The two young defenders had shown enough though to suggest their futures are very bright indeed. A few VFL players were stiff not to get selected with Jesse White, Ben Kennedy and Patrick Karnezis at the top of that list. It shows that the Pies finally have some depth to call on, but it may have all come too late.
The Magpies will put out on the field their strongest team in weeks so they will believe they are at least a chance of causing a big upset in Sydney on Friday night.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
The Swans are just sputtering along at the moment but they are still in contention for a top four finish which would set them up for another shot at the flag. Apart from the win over Adelaide the last few weeks have been very unimpressive from a Swans outfit that is usually known for it's consistency. One theory is the whole Adam Goodes saga has been a drain on the playing group, but it may well have been that the Swans were just missing the player Goodes can still be. Either way Sydney has to win this game, they just do, a loss here and their top 4 chances are slim at best. They'll be hoping for the return of Lance “Buddy” Franklin from a back complaint which would reinforce a struggling forward line.
The Sydney forward line really should be one of their strengths, they've spent enough money on it over the past few years trying to make it so anyway. With Franklin (if he plays), Tippett, Reid, Goodes and Jetta the main stays of the Swans attack is ranked only 10th this season. Franklin has played his part with 45 goals and Tippett has been serviceable with 29 but it drops off significantly after that. Luke Parker, a midfielder, has the next best tally on the list and that says it all about the problems the Swans have had up forward in 2015. They will face off against a young Magpies backline though which could regenerate their scoring ability.
The Swans midfield is under performing also in recent times. After a strong start to the season the Swans now don't rank in the top six for contested possessions or clearances, something they've lived off for a long time. It's hard to figure out why this is occurring to with the likes of Parker, Hannebery, Kennedy, Mcveigh and Jack rotating through the contests. The lack of depth may be one reason with only Hannebery, Kennedy and Parker performing at a top level. They will match up against a Collingwood midfield itself bereft of real depth with Swan, Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Adams leading the way. One area where the Swans may be able to dominate is in the ruck with Pyke likely to come back into the side to assist Tippett with the ruck work against a young Collingwood ruck duo.
The Sydney backline has always had a blue collar look to it and the current group isn't much different. Ted Richards, Jeremy Laidler, Rhyce Shaw, Nick Smith and Heath Grundy are the main stays of this defense and they are all experienced hard workers without much flair. Shaw obviously was a Magpie in another life, well early in his AFL career, and is now in the twilight of a decorated career with the Swans. This may well be the area of most concern for coach John Longmire though going into this game. The Swan have always relied upon a team defense strategy where numbers push back to assist their defenders. This week they run head on into the best looking forward line the Magpies have put on the park all season. If the Swans can defend well it will go a long way towards them winning this game.
The Swan are probably right now in the worst form they've been in all season but their best football is still good enough, especially to defeat a side like Collingwood. Being back on the SCG helps too as they showed two weeks back against the Crows. The loss of Franklin is a blow for sure as it makes it much harder for the Swans to find avenues to goal. Most of the focus leading into this game will be on Adam Goodes once again, with this being his first showing at home since the constant booing in Perth that saw him take a leave of absence from the game. But in the end this game will come down to how the Swans play, if they play anywhere near their best they probably win, if not their top four hopes may take another, almost fatal blow.
TEAMS
TIP
The Swans come into this game as short favourites and it's probably fair enough. On face value anyway. They sit in 5th spot while Collingwood sits in 11th. The Swans record at home has also been strong with 6 wins so far this season. What that doesn't show though is how both teams are going. They are struggling, and that's probably an under statement. Neither has really performed at a consistently high level for a long time now which makes this game a little closer then one might suspect.
Then there's Collingwood, a team that at times has shown it can challenge the absolute best teams in the competition. They haven't beaten any of them though, and with only four rounds to go you get the feeling that coach Nathan Buckley will be asking his team for one more supreme effort to at least take one great scalp into the off season. This may well be that scalp as the Swans are there for the taking without Franklin. If the Pies can start well on Friday night I can see them pulling off an upset and keeping their faint finals hopes alive.
MAGPIES BY 8 POINTS.
