List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

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Seems one of the biggest conjectures at the moment is do we use our F1 in a trade or not.
Most presume we will be bottom 3 next year including other clubs, I would think.

Trade it now for some picks now and we finish bottom couple and it could be a line ball decision. If we actually have a bit of a jump and finish above 10th and it is an absolute win, particularly if we have involved another future pick with a club that falls.

Just a bit of history on some clubs that had improvement from down the bottom.
Adelaide went from 14th to 2nd in 2011/12
Brissy 18th-15th-2nd in 17/18/19
Pies 17th-4th in 21/22
Dons 18th-7th in 16/17
Swans 16th-6th in 20/21
WCE 16 (spoon) - 4th in 10/11
Dogs 14th-6th in 14/15

So it does happen and pretty much a team has made that jump every year since we did it in 2011-2011, last time we finished that low.
If we do be that team next year it could be an absolute masterstroke to get multiple 1st round picks for one.

Yes we are going through a rebuild and have lost a lot of experience in the past year or two but much of that experience were not getting out on the park anyway so that experience was going to the young bloods who may not of gotten it otherwise therefore pushing us a bit quicker in said rebuild.

If we can get another top 10 this year and possibly next year to add to Reid for giving up something that we don't even know what it will be I am a yes.
 
flyinghi64 said:
Seems one of the biggest conjectures at the moment is do we use our F1 in a trade or not.
Most presume we will be bottom 3 next year including other clubs, I would think.

Trade it now for some picks now and we finish bottom couple and it could be a line ball decision. If we actually have a bit of a jump and finish above 10th and it is an absolute win, particularly if we have involved another future pick with a club that falls.

Just a bit of history on some clubs that had improvement from down the bottom.
Adelaide went from 14th to 2nd in 2011/12
Brissy 18th-15th-2nd in 17/18/19
Pies 17th-4th in 21/22
Dons 18th-7th in 16/17
Swans 16th-6th in 20/21
WCE 16 (spoon) - 4th in 10/11
Dogs 14th-6th in 14/15

So it does happen and pretty much a team has made that jump every year since we did it in 2011-2011, last time we finished that low.
If we do be that team next year it could be an absolute masterstroke to get multiple 1st round picks for one.

Yes we are going through a rebuild and have lost a lot of experience in the past year or two but much of that experience were not getting out on the park anyway so that experience was going to the young bloods who may not of gotten it otherwise therefore pushing us a bit quicker in said rebuild.

If we can get another top 10 this year and possibly next year to add to Reid for giving up something that we don't even know what it will be I am a yes.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure if you remember had bad we were this year.
Can't see anyway way we don't finish bottom 4.

Above 10th is pie in the sky stuff IMO.

Keep next years first rounder for next year.
 
UseR2006 said:
On the Latest Gettable:

Kevin Sheehan joins for a Mock Draft.
Doing it based on club needs.

Doing 20 picks based on current draft order.

1. WCE - Harley Reid. (Declined a dumbass north offer).
2. North - Bids on Walter - GC Match the Bid.
3. North - Curtin
Click to expand...

It looks like the "IF Curtin slides..." scenario is very unlikely at this rate!

It has been an interesting convo on potential live trade F1 scenarios, but its looking all moot...
 

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Avalor said:
We won't finish last. We will rise up the table - how far is debatable, but I can see us winning, say 8 games.
And as for Curtin, on the Gettable's mock draft today, he was selected by Shifter at pick 3. So is he worth it? Yes, a resounding Yes.
Even with selling our future 1st, I don't think we would be able to get Curtin, but I would still do it. There's plenty of talent available - Ablett has this draft as good as any he has seen, and I trust his, and Shifter's opinion on this, rather than some random on BF.
Click to expand...
Well that would move us all the way up to 16th based on the amount of wins teams had this year. Pick 3.

That's probably an optimistic outlook as well.
 
noobermensch said:
A player profile for Harley Reid. Trying something new, feedback is welcome.

Click to expand...

Those are some mighty fine highlights, thanks for providing them throughout the offseason so far. I really like the way you’ve broken them down into mini subgroups to show off his strengths, great idea :thumbsu:

Are you familiar with Reid’s water bottle preference by any chance?
 
Herald Sun Top 50 Draft Rankings and The West with another article about some "expert" arbitrarily deciding we need to target a specific player because of reasons. Anyone able to plagiarise for the rest of us?


thewest.com.au

Eagles urged to get first-round pick for Allen-like prospect

West Coast have been encouraged to find a second pick inside the first round of this year’s draft and target a NSW swingman to help with their rebuild.
thewest.com.au thewest.com.au
 
So what does compromised look like in 2024?

I put together a view of who is holding what picks, TAB odds for 2024 and prospects that I have used DAV27's raking as of August this year highlighting the prospects that can be taken with points.

Under that weighting and likelihood of finishing spots, it shows where picks might be for sale.

The first pick for sale is going to be pick 11 for the Crows with Welsh seen as a top 10 and possibly top 5 prospect. I do not rate him top 5 but some do.

The first round picks that look like it will or could be sold off look to be Lions (predicted pick 17), Blues (predicted pick 15), Sydney (predicted 13) and Suns (the least likely with predicted picks 8 and 9).

Suns and Sydney also hold the 2 Beggar Bowl picks 19 and 20 that Norf sold off.

So what I see is Ashcroft and Welsh picked with points in top 10 and nobody in top 10 needing to tap out for points

I personally see the 2024 compromise (as it stand now) likely to be having the biggest impact in the back half of the first round. And the clubs Old Bean is talking about are GWS and Dees, right in the thick of the compromise.

1699420381585.png
So the question Old Bean has raised, would you sell off pick 1 or 2 next year for Curtin at Dee's pick 6 and Dees R1 next year likely to be around 16 which will likely end up early 20's.

I might do it with Geelong if Curtin still there and it was 8 and a F1 for our F1. I would see the Cat's R1 in 2024 could well be holding a better pick than this year
 
maxrm said:
Herald Sun Top 50 Draft Rankings and The West with another article about some "expert" arbitrarily deciding we need to target a specific player because of reasons. Anyone able to plagiarise for the rest of us?


thewest.com.au

Eagles urged to get first-round pick for Allen-like prospect

West Coast have been encouraged to find a second pick inside the first round of this year’s draft and target a NSW swingman to help with their rebuild.
thewest.com.au thewest.com.au
Click to expand...
The gist of that one is if we can get another pick in the first round O'Sullivan would be worth a look.
Expressly states we take Reid so not a split. Rather, split F1 etc..
 
Obeanie1 said:
2. I read that the Metro boys in next years top 5 plus Draper who the Crows are super keen on have questions on flight risk.

Didn't make it up myself to 'throw it up there'.

Unlike some on here who sound like they are talking in broad sweeping terms I've gone and done some research into the 2024 draft. Lots of quality mids. More than this season and deeper. Not many quality talls rated at this time and the 1st rated WA kid is mid to late 1st round ATM.

So understanding what players are in the top 4 next season you likely miss out on

So if we take Reid and want a quality tall then maybe Curtin is that option and we trade our F1st to land that quality WA tall. Described as the best product out of WA in 10 years. Plus extras.
Click to expand...
Most players are going to have a preference to staying in their own state, and now that player managers have gotten a sniff of how easy it is to keep top draftees in their home state (particularly victorian ones), they seem to be getting their players to play these sorts of games more and more to deter non victorian teams from drafting them. This doesn't mean they're actually flight risks, and the day we start avoiding top end talent like this is the day we should fold because the problem will just get exponentially worse and we will limit our drafting pool further than it already is.

Is Curtin a quality tall? He seems to think he's a midfielder and he hasn't done much to show that he's an elite key position player, at this stage he is an overgrown flanker. Yes he has potential but it would be negligent to give up genuine elite midfield talent next season to take a gamble on Curtin simply because he's local. Correct there are a lot more talls throughout this draft than next years at this stage and we should be able to land a couple of decent ones with our 2nd and 3rd rounders.

"Described as the best product out of WA in 10 years".

According to who besides his own manager?
 
Avalor said:
We won't finish last. We will rise up the table - how far is debatable, but I can see us winning, say 8 games.
And as for Curtin, on the Gettable's mock draft today, he was selected by Shifter at pick 3. So is he worth it? Yes, a resounding Yes.
Even with selling our future 1st, I don't think we would be able to get Curtin, but I would still do it. There's plenty of talent available - Ablett has this draft as good as any he has seen, and I trust his, and Shifter's opinion on this, rather than some random on BF.
Click to expand...
I said the same thing this year, no way we finish last would be near impossible to have an injury list as bad as 2022. And yet here we are, so until we show any improvement at all it's a bit naive to just assume we will shoot back up next year, unless we know for certain we will have a better injury run. Which we don't.

Who cares about gettables mock draft, the only reason he has been talked up as a top 3 draft pick is wishful thinking from the vic media linking him to us and Norfs borderline ******ed drafting avoiding talls the last 7 years. He isn't a top 5 talent and doesn't even have a set position he excels at beside a back flanker/distributor, which is not a position worthy of a top end pick.
 
Yippy Yi Yeo said:
He isn't a top 5 talent and doesn't even have a set position he excels at beside a back flanker/distributor, which is not a position worthy of a top end pick.
Click to expand...
Nick Dacios and Harry Sheezel say hi. 👋🏻

Yippy Yi Yeo said:
Who cares about gettables mock draft, the only reason he has been talked up as a top 3 draft pick is wishful thinking from the vic media
Click to expand...
Source?


Most of what you said is simply made up to suit your own view on Curtin.

Don’t stress mate the club will have there own view on Curtin and will make the right decision based on whether they see him as top 1-3 or 5-10 or friggen not even first rounder it won’t matter what we think. Then they have to get in the right position to actually draft him it’s all hypothetical in here.

Hopefully if the club do see him as an absolute elite talent that can get him but it’s just as likely they see him as okay talent and not be that stressed whether they have a pick to get him or not.
 

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Why are people happy to trade our future 1st for Curtin but not say someone like O’Sullivan?

O’Sullivan is the better key position player, I think he can be used forward as well.

If he gets to the Crows first, I’d be offering our future 1st and change for 10,14 and their future 1st

Crows would consider this as it ensures they’ll be ahead of a Tyler Welsh bid for next year and put them in the box seat for Sid Draper or one of the top of end midfielders next year

Don’t get me wrong I’d rather keep our future 1st, but if we are open to trading it, it shouldn’t just be for Curtin.

If the trade ends up being pick 1 or 2 for O’Sullivan
Wilson, Leake or Windsor
Pick 7-13 next year

I don’t think that would be too bad.
 
maxrm said:
Herald Sun Top 50 Draft Rankings and The West with another article about some "expert" arbitrarily deciding we need to target a specific player because of reasons. Anyone able to plagiarise for the rest of us?


thewest.com.au

Eagles urged to get first-round pick for Allen-like prospect

West Coast have been encouraged to find a second pick inside the first round of this year’s draft and target a NSW swingman to help with their rebuild.
thewest.com.au thewest.com.au
Click to expand...
Here is the HUN ranking

I have in the second column the pick number needed to take the player (ie takes out the players not available in the open draft). Reading it, if the draft went by this as best available and no trading, we would take Harley, Will Green and Clay Hall at our first 3 picks.

1699426519613.png
 
TerryFilk said:
Why are people happy to trade our future 1st for Curtin but not say someone like O’Sullivan?

O’Sullivan is the better key position player, I think he can be used forward as well.

If he gets to the Crows first, I’d be offering our future 1st and change for 10,14 and their future 1st

Crows would consider this as it ensures they’ll be ahead of a Tyler Welsh bid for next year and put them in the box seat for Sid Draper or one of the top of end midfielders next year

Don’t get me wrong I’d rather keep our future 1st, but if we are open to trading it, it shouldn’t just be for Curtin.

If the trade ends up being pick 1 or 2 for O’Sullivan
Wilson, Leake or Windsor
Pick 7-13 next year

I don’t think that would be too bad.
Click to expand...
Been suggesting this for weeks but Sully won’t get to crows pick. This deal sees us get Wilson/Windsor/Leake and Hardeman/DeMattia/Tholstrup. We’d have to deal with Dees for 6,11 to get Curtin/Sully and Wilson/Windsor/Leake
 
Cal suggested Collard or Archie Roberts might be available with our second pick. Sounds like Collard could still sneak through if clubs are worried about his transition interstate, Roberts would be a tidy pick up.
 
So the second round starts to look interesting. As it stands, here are the picks

1699426770957.png

Ralph in the HUN was reporting that the Suns will take 24, 26, 27, 32, 36 and 38 to the draft. They will then look to off load for points premiums.

Here is the extract claiming we are interested
1699427080156.png
So what we would offer for pick 24?

Firstly, we make it clear that we will bid on Walter at 1 but happy to let it pass if this deal goes through first. That saves the Suns 386 points. Pick 24 is worth 785 so we offer them a future R3 (say 38) plus 58 (total is 635 so close to 24), add then the non bid and it is a gain for the Suns of 1,021 points. Would the AFL allow it? If we throw in a future R4 or make it 37, then yes.

Would the Suns believe we bid on Walter at 1 if they don't trade, then fine. We just damn well bid. Ego's get put to one side.

With 1, 23, 24 and 37, we get
At 1 - Harley
At 23 and 24 - 2 of Roberts/Green/Gothard/Zakostelsky/Moir/Goad
At 43 - the likes of Hall, O'Driscoll, Dawson, Patton, Delean

To walk away with Harley, Goad, Zakostelsky or Moir and O'Driscoll would be a very good haul. I say Moir without any insights as to his injuries and cause of drop this season but class is class and would be worth the risk. If not, we get our next CHB in ZZ
 
Happy Mastenator said:
But Curtin isn't a "tall"? Sure he's tall, but he doesn't want to play a key position, so he's just a tall midfielder, not a "tall" in the traditional sense of the word.
Click to expand...

This is my issue. If Curtin was a locked and loaded gun KPP, or a gun mid. I'd say yes. It just sounds like his likely position will end up as an outside floating intercepting tall half back. That sort of player isnt worth worth pushing the boat out for with our F1.

If the club genuinely thinks he can become a Bont, and its not just pure "hope + "hE's tALl and cAn Run" then i would be ok with it (even if I dont have the most faith in our recruiting team atm)
 
TerryFilk said:
Why are people happy to trade our future 1st for Curtin but not say someone like O’Sullivan?

O’Sullivan is the better key position player, I think he can be used forward as well.

If he gets to the Crows first, I’d be offering our future 1st and change for 10,14 and their future 1st

Crows would consider this as it ensures they’ll be ahead of a Tyler Welsh bid for next year and put them in the box seat for Sid Draper or one of the top of end midfielders next year

Don’t get me wrong I’d rather keep our future 1st, but if we are open to trading it, it shouldn’t just be for Curtin.

If the trade ends up being pick 1 or 2 for O’Sullivan
Wilson, Leake or Windsor
Pick 7-13 next year

I don’t think that would be too bad.
Click to expand...
I think crows would scoff at giving up 10 14 and f1 personally.
 
Dark Sharks said:
A lot can change in 12 months. At the moment there's no clear number one pick candidate for 2024.

Rewind the clock 12 months ago and Harley was easily the most highly rated talent and could've been selected then, if eligible. Moir was a top prospect and Edwards was also going to be taken a lot higher. Now you'd be lucky for both to still be in the second round.

Year before it was all about Scully and Lemmy, which amounted to * all.

I'm not advocating trading our F1, but it should be under consideration like everything else, nothing is off the table. If Curtin slides and the opportunity is there without cooking our 24 draft hand completely, it's worth chasing.

He's hardly a spud, and provides something we really don't have. Few teams possess his skills and athletic traits/versatility. Won't be playing as KPD initially, would prefer seeing him as a (clears throat) defensive winger, but not the spud type Simmo' loves to guard space with. More so a free wheeling winger who's always dropping back behind the ball making things happen from defense.

Either that or we draft a mid, along with yet another likely mid next year, meanwhile the spine starts to look pretty average.
Click to expand...

There are currently 5 talents at or above where Curtin or Walter were rated this time last year and above where any true midfield talent was rated this time last year (but below Reid)

Lemmey fell apart in his senior year due to major reasons that had nothing to do with football. Scully only came to prominence for a short period at the start of last season when he was kicking bags of 5-7 weekly but was still seen as very much a watch due to playing against smaller, weaker players.

If the club is set on selecting Reid then he is at this stage a utility who will likely be a burst player with lots of time on the bench.

The club is nigh on certain to finish bottom 2. Sure one of those talents might fizzle out (it tends to happen to at least 1 top rated player each year) and another 2 might already be peaking and stay at a similar level. The two others are likely to progress at their current rate of improvement and then stand out as the top two picks next year unless someone comes from further back.

So yes, trading out our future first right now is close to insanity unless some ******s are going to offer Duggan a 6 year, 5 million dollar contract.

We will likely see future pick trading up to 2 years in advance next year, also the 2025 draft is looking like the most compromised draft in history as it stands so if we're looking to trade a future pick into a draft, next year is the year to do it.

Trading that pick now would be insanity unless it's for something that won't happen like melbourne's 2 firsts, plus their future first.
 
bh90210fan said:
It’s a bit rich declaring Curtin the best talent out of WA in a decade when Logan McDonald lead the goal kicking at WAFL level for his club in his draft year having only played 9 games
Click to expand...

Yes but when that WAFL club was the Perth Demons however....
Less impressive :p
 
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