List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

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[Elite Pete]

Let’s hope the long term pans out but Chesser over Matt Johnson or Hobbs looks a huge reach and one leaving us with a massive need for that type of player.

I’m in the hold our future 1st camp especially if we take Reid this year. Super midfield group next year and that’s just what we need.

 

[dinnaz]

You lost me there.
He was. Now he isn't. Could be a bargain, could be bust.
I would like him on our list if he's available late enough.

Not even close if he was, then even with a bust of a year would have him at 10 in mocks.

I honestly think that many media people are just lazy and don't put in the work. Hence why everyone rates players the same.

Then as viewers we see a collection of experts all saying the same thing and believe it's a peer review situation.

 

[Mop]

Not even close if he was, then even with a bust of a year would have him at 10 in mocks.

I honestly think that many media people are just lazy and don't put in the work. Hence why everyone rates players the same.

Then as viewers we see a colle tion of experts all saying the same thing and believe it's a peer review situation.

I suppose it's like the long range weather forecast. In theory we know what the weather looks like in the next 10ish days, but if a weather pattern forms between now and then it'll be out dramatically and could be the polar opposite.
No one forsaw a decline quite so dramatic from Moir, but then you ask why?
Is he lazy, or did he have a pesky injury like a hip? Is it a matter of he's not one who can play through niggles?
George Stevens was also projected to go very high, but the ACL has put him back quite a way. Could be anywhere now.

It'd be one thing if we were talking about taking him with our second pick, but some people like Ambrose above would let him slide at a pick in the late 50s. A pick that late is a no risk proposition, I don't get the objection unless there was someone else projected not to be drafted that you particularly liked

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

I think Curtin has been very unfairly treated on here, he is a very very good talent! It seems like he had an average colts grand final and everyone has written him off, although prior to that was playing a very high level of football off half back for Claremont snrs.

I think a lot of it has steemed from a belief our recruiters would trade pick 1 to get Curtin. So everyone lost their shiite at the thought of that. They aren't that silly, Reid is the best talent and exactly what we need.

If Curtin does slide, we'd be silly not to have a crack at getting him. There isn't a high end talent from what I've seen in next years draft like him. Top 5 are smaller pure mids who are small vs 197cm durable player. If we could get him with another future first coming back (ideally top 8 projected pick) it could well be worth it.

 

[twadds]

I think Curtin has been very unfairly treated on here, he is a very very good talent! It seems like he had an average colts grand final and everyone has written him off, although prior to that was playing a very high level of football off half back for Claremont snrs.

I think a lot of it has steemed from a belief our recruiters would trade pick 1 to get Curtin. So everyone lost their shiite at the thought of that. They aren't that silly, Reid is the best talent and exactly what we need.

If Curtin does slide, we'd be silly not to have a crack at getting him. There isn't a high end talent from what I've seen in next years draft like him. Top 5 are smaller pure mids who are small vs 197cm durable player. If we could get him with another future first coming back (ideally top 8 projected pick) it could well be worth it.

I watched the Colts GF and Curtin was far from poor. He had a very decent game. He lead the game in disposals.

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

If we could get him with another future first coming back (ideally top 8 projected pick) it could well be worth it.

Won't happen, give it up

 

[dinnaz]

I suppose it's like the long range weather forecast. In theory we know what the weather looks like in the next 10ish days, but if a weather pattern forms between now and then it'll be out dramatically and could be the polar opposite.
No one forsaw a decline quite so dramatic from Moir, but then you ask why?
Is he lazy, or did he have a pesky injury like a hip? Is it a matter of he's not one who can play through niggles?
George Stevens was also projected to go very high, but the ACL has put him back quite a way. Could be anywhere now.

It'd be one thing if we were talking about taking him with our second pick, but some people like Ambrose above would let him slide at a pick in the late 50s. A pick that late is a no risk proposition, I don't get the objection unless there was someone else projected not to be drafted that you particularly liked

True, it's a guess at this time for everyone but more in a range of 20 picks either way.
This is except for the truly outstanding players who dominate as 17's which there are maybe 4-5 each season. And out of those 1 probably falls off and a couple may come on super strong.

Moir as I said never dominated games, was more of a handy even a selfish fwd. Kicks goals but doesn't pressure, assist or really even have a plan B to impact games.
I'm thinking Ben McKinley for some reason on that you'll likely get a decent player, but not necessarily a guy who holds down a spot in a flag team once they aren't the big dog in the squad.

In 2024 there's some names being thrown around too ill write something up later with predictions which are in line with what I just said.

 

[Keys]

Seems to be overlooked from time to time but any club trading away their live pick for a future is not forced to do so. It's the same position as us with pick 1. They're not going to do the trade for a 'fair' return.

We will have to pony up overs just as we would demand overs to part with pick 1. I genuinely don't see a scenario where we swap our F1 for a live pick in the top ~7 this year and get any steak knives coming back in that deal.

The overall calculations of bringing in Curtin this year instead of a top 3 Vic Metro mid next year must be balanced against the benefit we get of accelerating our rebuild by accessing genuine talent 12 months earlier, and then we cross fingers and hope that talent fulfills a role for a long time.

Equally the other club will expect fair compensation for delaying their access to the top talent for 12 months, quick would mean improving their eventual access to the best talent next year.

Sorry for Poonsplaining this but some of the theoretical pick swaps are just never going to happen.

There needs to be a reason/incentive for a club to trade out of this years draft into next year. Part of that incentive is that we most likely will have a top 4 pick next year and quite possibly pick 1 but there’s no guarantee of that

The club with the reason to get a F1, especially a likely high pick, seems to be Adelaide but pick 10 seems too late for Curtin

However a trade like this with GWS and Adelaide if Curtin gets past Melbourne might work

Adelaide
In : 37,42,F1(WC)
Out: 10,14,F1

GWS
In: 10,14,23,F1(A)
Out: 7,16,42, F1

WCE
In: 7,16,F1(GWS)
Out: 23,37,F1

Instead of 1,23,37 as our first 3 picks we have 1,7,16 at the cost of swapping F1s with GWS

Reid
Curtin
1 of Tholstrup, Hardeman, Murphy, DeMattia, Collard, C Edwards who are all in that range

 

[amazingjoshy]

There needs to be a reason/incentive for a club to trade out of this years draft into next year. Part of that incentive is that we most likely will have a top 4 pick next year and quite possibly pick 1 but there’s no guarantee of that

The club with the reason to get a F1, especially a likely high pick, seems to be Adelaide but pick 10 seems too late for Curtin

However a trade like this with GWS and Adelaide if Curtin gets past Melbourne might work

Adelaide
In : 37,42,F1(WC)
Out: 10,14,F1

GWS
In: 10,14,23,F1(A)
Out: 7,16,42, F1

WCE
In: 7,16,F1(GWS)
Out: 23,37,F1

Instead of 1,23,37 as our first 3 picks we have 1,7,16 at the cost of swapping F1s with GWS

Reid
Curtin
1 of Tholstrup, Hardeman, Murphy, DeMattia, Collard, C Edwards who are all in that range

Are 3 way trades allowed on draft night? I can't remember one happening but have no idea

 

[ArdentEagle]

It does seem almost inconceivable that Curtin could slide that far. You’d think one of Melbourne, GWS, Geelong or Essendon take him

But the suggestion he might slide got me thinking about the interview on SEN earlier this week with Curtin and his manager.

His manager was in full tyre pumping mode and did at one point say how the suggestions he was sliding were absurd, or words to that affect. Went on to say that WCE should take him with pick 1

Overall, it was a bit odd but maybe less so if you consider it was a reaction to his client drifting down clubs draft boards

For Curtin to get to Adelaide’s pick (ignoring the GC gravy train)

1. Reid - West Coast
2. McKercher - North
3. Duursma - North
4. Watson - Hawthorn
5. Sanders - Bulldogs
6. Caddy - Melbourne
7. Windsor - GWS
8. Leake - Geelong
9. O’Sullivan - Essendon

Seems unlikely but maybe the concerns being expressed by some on this board over what position Curtin plays at AFL level are shared in club land

Hawthorn are the fly in the ointment....They've bought in Ginnivan at reasonable cost.
I suspect they'll be more than likely calling Curtins name come draft night.

 

[Mop]

I'm thinking Ben McKinley for some reason on that you'll likely get a decent player, but not necessarily a guy who holds down a spot in a flag team once they aren't the big dog in the squad.

In 2024 there's some names being thrown around too ill write something up later with predictions which are in line with what I just said.

Heh heh. When anyone says mid sized marking forward I automatically think of Ben McKinley circa 2008. One pretty solid season, came back unfit, traded to North for a packet of chips not long after.

 

[ArdentEagle]

Actual footage of Curtin sliding...

That's for like the Drapes opening.

 

[WCE_Phill]

There needs to be a reason/incentive for a club to trade out of this years draft into next year. Part of that incentive is that we most likely will have a top 4 pick next year and quite possibly pick 1 but there’s no guarantee of that

The club with the reason to get a F1, especially a likely high pick, seems to be Adelaide but pick 10 seems too late for Curtin

However a trade like this with GWS and Adelaide if Curtin gets past Melbourne might work

Adelaide
In : 37,42,F1(WC)
Out: 10,14,F1

GWS
In: 10,14,23,F1(A)
Out: 7,16,42, F1

WCE
In: 7,16,F1(GWS)
Out: 23,37,F1

Instead of 1,23,37 as our first 3 picks we have 1,7,16 at the cost of swapping F1s with GWS

Reid
Curtin
1 of Tholstrup, Hardeman, Murphy, DeMattia, Collard, C Edwards who are all in that range

Disagree, there zero incentive there for GWS

Only way this gets down, IF Curtin slides to 10.

Deal direct with Crows, because they can target Draper and get a pick in before Welsh (top 12 this stage)

Dispite Curtin sliding, I was always a huge fan on the below

WCE F1, F2 and 37 for AC 10, 14, 20 and F1

Hit the draft with 1, 10, 14, 20 ans 23 and a top 14 next year

 

[Keys]

Hawthorn are the fly in the ointment....They've bought in Ginnivan at reasonable cost.
I suspect they'll be more than likely calling Curtins name come draft night.

Hawthorn will also be bringing in McCabe as a KPD and possibly Calsher Dear as a KPF

Still think they’re a good chance to take Watson

 

[ArdentEagle]

Hawthorn will also be bringing in McCabe as a KPD and possibly Calsher Dear as a KPF

Still think they’re a good chance to take Watson

For our sake, I hope so!

 

[Coasters7]

Seems to be overlooked from time to time but any club trading away their live pick for a future is not forced to do so. It's the same position as us with pick 1. They're not going to do the trade for a 'fair' return.

We will have to pony up overs just as we would demand overs to part with pick 1. I genuinely don't see a scenario where we swap our F1 for a live pick in the top ~7 this year and get any steak knives coming back in that deal.

The overall calculations of bringing in Curtin this year instead of a top 3 Vic Metro mid next year must be balanced against the benefit we get of accelerating our rebuild by accessing genuine talent 12 months earlier, and then we cross fingers and hope that talent fulfills a role for a long time.

Equally the other club will expect fair compensation for delaying their access to the top talent for 12 months, quick would mean improving their eventual access to the best talent next year.

Sorry for Poonsplaining this but some of the theoretical pick swaps are just never going to happen.

Does depend who it is though. Geelong no chance. Giants maybe?

But I think a lot of us are hoping Adelaide (Draper) or Melbourne (early access to top end talent) get desperate and come to us.

Curtin probably doesn’t get to Adelaide but Melbourne is interesting. After not having enough for Reid do they come hard for the second prize?

Assuming we split next year. We’re probably not getting a better offer than 6 and 11 anyway, maybe even upgrade 23 to their F1 as well?

Really depends how good we think Curtin is/can be.

 

[Keys]

Disagree, there zero incentive there for GWS

Only way this gets down, IF Curtin slides to 10.

Deal direct with Crows, because they can target Draper and get a pick in before Welsh (top 12 this stage)

Dispite Curtin sliding, I was always a huge fan on the below

WCE F1, F2 and 37 for AC 10, 14, 20 and F1

Hit the draft with 1, 10, 14, 20 ans 23 and a top 14 next year

Agree that it’s pretty marginal for GWS so there might need to be some extra encouragement for them

 

[Obeanie1]

#1 Moir was never a top 5 talent
#2 Collard has the classic small forward ability (pace & kicks goals) and has played a lot as a mid too. Which is great as a junior to be better than 90%, but at AFL playing as a small fwd is a death sentence. You may only get 3 chances a game and have to have everything in order to thrive. Mentally it's a lot of work for little result which is why a lot bomb out IMO.

Shai Bolton even though I think he is wasteful, was still maybe another 50 % productive as Collard for comparison.

On Moir he is just another medium fwd who has found stepping up too hard A later pick as he kicks goals but doesn't bring a lot else to the table.

Some grow up faster than others mentally.

Both hàve talent no doubts. Sounds like Moir has had a injury niggle to deal with however has not shown the intent nor intensity playing. Is that injury related or attitude and application?

The kid sounds pretty keen on the Eagles as reported and getting out of SA is a must. Freo linked to him which would be a crap outccome all round IMO.

Interested how many clubs interviewed him. Feel he still gets drafted just not before 25.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

I think Curtin will be a really good player, but us or the purples will have to dramatically overpay to get him. We're essentially giving up a top 2 pick next year if we trade him and I'm not sure we'll get too much back in change if anything.

Phil, ATG, Monocle and ECE will be far better placed to know whether in next year's crop that's the right price to pay. From what I've read from them, it's a compromised draft again via academy and F/S bids, but it's more midfield heavy.

Ignore all the crap from Jason Dover, he's not impartial, he's spruiking his client and trying to get us or Purple to trade in for him as a potential once in a lifetime bargain.
He knows full well we aren't using 1 on him.

This is a roundabout way of saying yes I agree kinda, but Melbourne may decide the purple offerings aren't weighted heavily enough in their favour.

I do not think the top 10 will have much impact with the academy or f/s. That will come hard in the teens - based on what I saw this year and where I think clubs finish

there are about 4 players who are mids in that crop that would be ahead of Curtin

 

[Obeanie1]

Seems to be overlooked from time to time but any club trading away their live pick for a future is not forced to do so. It's the same position as us with pick 1. They're not going to do the trade for a 'fair' return.

We will have to pony up overs just as we would demand overs to part with pick 1. I genuinely don't see a scenario where we swap our F1 for a live pick in the top ~7 this year and get any steak knives coming back in that deal.

The overall calculations of bringing in Curtin this year instead of a top 3 Vic Metro mid next year must be balanced against the benefit we get of accelerating our rebuild by accessing genuine talent 12 months earlier, and then we cross fingers and hope that talent fulfills a role for a long time.

Equally the other club will expect fair compensation for delaying their access to the top talent for 12 months, quick would mean improving their eventual access to the best talent next year.

Sorry for Poonsplaining this but some of the theoretical pick swaps are just never going to happen.

So if we want to live trade for Dees live pick 8 for Curtin its costs our future 1st and we get nothing else back?

And you call other proposals crazy and will never happen.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

I think Curtin has been very unfairly treated on here, he is a very very good talent! It seems like he had an average colts grand final and everyone has written him off, although prior to that was playing a very high level of football off half back for Claremont snrs.

I think a lot of it has steemed from a belief our recruiters would trade pick 1 to get Curtin. So everyone lost their shiite at the thought of that. They aren't that silly, Reid is the best talent and exactly what we need.

If Curtin does slide, we'd be silly not to have a crack at getting him. There isn't a high end talent from what I've seen in next years draft like him. Top 5 are smaller pure mids who are small vs 197cm durable player. If we could get him with another future first coming back (ideally top 8 projected pick) it could well be worth it.

Agree with you on people scared of Curtin because of crap made up that we would take him at 1. Curtin is a very good footballer

If he was there at the Crows pick, our F1 for Curtin and Crows F1 (likely in teens) would be about fair

Big incentive for Crows and Draper

 

[ArdentEagle]

This board is just full of filth lately....Bloody suggestive drapes gif. The teen comment above.

 

[squashface]

Had a dream last night that at the very last minute we split pick 1 with Melbourne and drafted O'Sullivan + Schoenmaker.

I woke up very unhappy.

 

[Mop]

Agree with you on people scared of Curtin because of crap made up that we would take him at 1. Curtin is a very good footballer

If he was there at the Crows pick, our F1 for Curtin and Crows F1 (likely in teens) would be about fair

Big incentive for Crows and Draper

Are you surprised to see Jason Dover pushing as hard as he is to keep Curtin in WA? I am a little.

 

[Cuzz09]

I've said it before, I'll say it again.

We need to take Reid to have SOMETHING to get excited about watching this team.

Reid with Long, Hewett and Ginbey and any other youngsters who wanna stamp themselves a career will be entertaining at least.

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