List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

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Keys you may like to sticky this post & move it to the start of the thread (so the sticky post doesn't rotate if a post is deleted before it), or copy it to your draft thread if you have one.
 
Give
WC: F1(2), F2(20), 23
AD: 10, 14, F1(12), 20
GWS: 7, 16

Get
WC: 7, F1(AD), 20
AD: F1(WC), 16, 23
GWS: 10, 14, F2 (WC)

That is my attempt at a three way trade, not sure if it’s any better or just more convoluted as some of the picks basically cancel each other out.

Pretty clear that WC priority will be pick 7 and Crows priority should be our F1 to get ahead of bids. GWS is the hard read as they would presumably want quality over quantity due to having so many high picks over the years, so not sure they would want 2 middling first rounders and an early F2.

Talk of Dees, Dons and Cats all being open to moving down the order also complicates things further. Hopefully we have an in principle deal with GWS and everything else is just noise.

So what does GWS get for trading down?

A 2 spot upgrade on 16 to 14 and a F2nd.

Not really that appealing if I was GWS.
 

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"The West Australian can confirm Naitanui will be in attendance on night one of the draft on Monday, where he is likely to hand over the No.9 jumper he wore since being selected with pick 2 in 2008."

Another Woodcock special.
 
Yeah Rotham isn't a key defender but not sure what else he is. He was actually solid in last few games as 2nd / 3rd defender. All the key defenders would look significantly better with a competent midfield.

Just cant even close to justify having seven talls on the list who are best positioned as key defenders when we have such gaping holes elsewhere. Gaff is so far more cooked than Mcgovern and replacing him and the entire wing department should be number one priority. Neither Curtin or ZZ are playing wing in the AFL.

Well I'm happy to take Charlie Edwards with our second if he's still there if its the wing you want fixing. We have Chesser, Burgeil, Hough and Hunt all capable of playing the role ahead of Gaff. His being cooked doesn't really mean he's not going to continue to get games in 2024 though even if we do draft another wing.
 

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Got to love ROB giving them absolutely nothing.
O'Brien's suprised face when Naitanui magically appears to present Reid his guernsey:
cfd2de9b5676b32d77bed82e05f254886cd09778-16x9-x2035y388w2673h1504.jpg
 
Well he did say we’re looking at getting in as much high end talent as possible so on that basis I hope if the Curtin play doesn’t eventuate we’ve got some other trade options to get an additional pick(s) in that 15-40 range other than just 23 and 37

Would have liked them to ask how many picks we intend using - although he probably wouldn’t have answered that either
 
O'Brien's suprised face when Naitanui magically appears to present Reid his guernsey:
cfd2de9b5676b32d77bed82e05f254886cd09778-16x9-x2035y388w2673h1504.jpg

We’ll have someone there to present a jumper to whoever we pick

Genuine fountain of information is old ROB
 
WEST COAST EAGLES


Picks:
1, 23, 37, 58

Latest intel: Unless there’s a dramatic change of heart, the Eagles – after months of ongoing speculation about whether they’d trade Pick 1 – are set to select Bendigo Pioneers sensation Harley Reid with the first selection of the draft. Now all eyes turn to their future first-round pick, which could be on the table come draft night. Despite their keenness to take Reid at Pick 1, the Eagles remain heavily interested in top WA prospect Daniel Curtin. Should Curtin slip past North Melbourne (highly likely), Hawthorn (a good chance), Western Bulldogs (definitely) and Melbourne (close to certain), the Eagles are expected to throw their future first-rounder at the GWS Giants, with the view to drafting key defender Curtin. Considering the Eagles’ list position and 2023 form, that could be a very early pick in the 2024 draft – and would give the Giants ample to think about, considering they haven’t been heavily wedded to a specific prospect at their first pick, according to rival clubs. So there’s a chance both Reid and Curtin are Eagles players next year. Elsewhere, they’re still keen to take NGA prospect Lance Collard – even though he won’t get past the NGA bidding threshold of Pick 40 – while they continue to be linked to Glenelg’s Ashton Moir and Peel Thunder’s Clay Hall.

Best-case scenarios: Get their top two prospects: Harley Reid with Pick 1 then find a suitor to swap their future first-round pick with to land Daniel Curtin after the WA star slides down the order. NGA prospect Lance Collard miraculously slips through past Pick 40, allowing the Eagles to match a bid on him without using a second-round pick. Glenelg’s Ashton Moir, as well as WA products Clay Hall and Zane Zakostelsky, are all available at their picks later in the draft.

Worst-case scenario: A rival club takes – or even trades up the order to take – Collard before the Eagles’ second pick. If Fremantle gets ahead of the Eagles to take their own NGA product, it’s a bitter pill to swallow, for some clubs believe Collard is the most talented WA prospect this season. The Blues pounce on Moir earlier than expected.
 
I’m not going through 17 club lists to calculate player turnover over the last 2-3 years, however ….

There were a total of 65 draft selections in 2021 so ~3.5 selections on average per club. We used 5

In the 2022 draft that number dropped to 59 or ~3.3 selections on average per club. Again we used 5

The expectation this draft is for 55-60 selections total so again an average of just over 3 per club. We will be using a minimum of 4, maybe 5

That’s three years in a row where we’ve taken a higher than average number of picks across the competition. In 2019 and 2020 we made just 2 selections in each of those years so there was a shift in philosophy

It should also be noted that unlike some other clubs our retention rate of players is high - off the top of my head Tom Hickey at the end of 2020 was the last player we traded out

Yes we could have encouraged some players to leave to bring in extra draft capital but clubs simply can’t trade players without their agreement.

The list is in transition and it started two years ago. It still has a couple of years to go as the likes of Gaff, Yeo, Darling, McGovern and Cripps go out to pasture
In addition, we openly prioritised top 30 picks last year and took 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders into last years draft in the top 30. The year before we took three first and second rounders in total. And it appears we did a good job with who we targeted.

It is not just the total number of players, it’s where we have aimed to take them to speed up the list rebuild. This year we are looking to trade into the first round with our F1, but if that does not come off then I think we can console ourselves with the fact we have JTR.
hopefully we win this draft on quality, with a couple of quality role players found later like Long.

Unfortunately, the media just like stirring shit, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to follow this rebuild narrative over the last couple of years.
 
I only want to trade our F1 if the other side basically thinks we will be shithouse and are valuing it at pick 1-2 (ie, paying overs). I dont want it if its just pick 7 for Curtin. I could live with it if the club genuinely thinks Curtin will stack up with a top 3 pick next year but gee whiz I dont really trust our recruiters judgment that well atm.

I can see the attraction for the sugar hit now but imagine the sour taste in our mouths this time next year and we've given up pick 1 and our first pick is coming in at 30 (like our second round is this year), especially if Curtin hasnt shot the lights out.
 
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