Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Playing with fire there I would've thought.

Syria is a total humiliation for Putin and Russia.

 

[Andre]

Yep, $300bn for theoretical subs for a theoretical enemy, but it's $1.5bn for an ally to fight an expansionist empire is what's breaking the Govt's defence budget???

If we can afford imaginary subs the USA says they can't even build, then we can afford to support Ukraine to survive against Russia.

I doubt there are many here who actually like that we (the collective West including Australia) have to spend any money on defense. We'd all like to live in a world that militaries weren't required. That's not happening any time soon though. What's failed to be grasped by the 'Military spending = children dying' is military spending isn't constant and the best way to bring it down long term is to 'beat down' non-democracies.

The end of the Cold War provided a 'peace dividend', that allowed a large increase in spending on all those things IlovethePies talks about. Unfortunately Russia didn't go down the path of becoming a responsible middle power, looking to integrate with Europe and those hoping Capitalism would inevitably lead to Democracy in China were proven wrong. However support Ukraine now to remove Russia as a major threat and it's only China left as a major threat. Hem them in and have enough strength to ensure Taiwan remains free and in a generation they are screwed by their demography (One Child policy effects) and won't be able to sustain their belligerence. The West do this and by around mid-century we get a world that won't need anywhere near as much spent on militaries. It has to stay strong until then though. As history has shown repeatedly, trying to placate dictators in the short term only costs more in the long term. More direct lives lost and more money that could go to the things we'd actually like it to go, in an ideal world.

 

[Saint]

I doubt there are many here who actually like that we (the collective West including Australia) have to spend any money on defense. We'd all like to live in a world that militaries weren't required. That's not happening any time soon though. What's failed to be grasped by the 'Military spending = children dying' is military spending isn't constant and the best way to bring it down long term is to 'beat down' non-democracies.

The end of the Cold War provided a 'peace dividend', that allowed a large increase in spending on all those things IlovethePies talks about. Unfortunately Russia didn't go down the path of becoming a responsible middle power, looking to integrate with Europe and those hoping Capitalism would inevitably lead to Democracy in China were proven wrong. However support Ukraine now to remove Russia as a major threat and it's only China left as a major threat. Hem them in and have enough strength to ensure Taiwan remains free and in a generation they are screwed by their demography (One Child policy effects) and won't be able to sustain their belligerence. The West do this and by around mid-century we get a world that won't need anywhere near as much spent on militaries. It has to stay strong until then though. As history has shown repeatedly, trying to placate dictators in the short term only costs more in the long term. More direct lives lost and more money that could go to the things we'd actually like it to go, in an ideal world.

This aint removing Russia as a medium power, they'll be back, it's a big place with lots of minerals.

And are we really trusting that a nation which votes in Trump will do the right thing with regard to freedom and democracy? Favouring Saudi over Iran indicates the US favours the US above democracy. This is not a nation we should be encouraging to have full domination of the world militarily. The oligarchs of the US are slowly taking over the country. If they had uncontested military power, they'd use it.

As true as it was in Roman times, or in The Phantom Menace, beware of, and understand, the real power behind the democratic process. Democracies are imperfect.

 

[Jello_B]

I doubt there are many here who actually like that we (the collective West including Australia) have to spend any money on defense. We'd all like to live in a world that militaries weren't required. That's not happening any time soon though. What's failed to be grasped by the 'Military spending = children dying' is military spending isn't constant and the best way to bring it down long term is to 'beat down' non-democracies.

The end of the Cold War provided a 'peace dividend', that allowed a large increase in spending on all those things IlovethePies talks about. Unfortunately Russia didn't go down the path of becoming a responsible middle power, looking to integrate with Europe and those hoping Capitalism would inevitably lead to Democracy in China were proven wrong. However support Ukraine now to remove Russia as a major threat and it's only China left as a major threat. Hem them in and have enough strength to ensure Taiwan remains free and in a generation they are screwed by their demography (One Child policy effects) and won't be able to sustain their belligerence. The West do this and by around mid-century we get a world that won't need anywhere near as much spent on militaries. It has to stay strong until then though. As history has shown repeatedly, trying to placate dictators in the short term only costs more in the long term. More direct lives lost and more money that could go to the things we'd actually like it to go, in an ideal world.

This is delusion

 

[Jamolad]

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten - despite it being in the banner post - abuse of a fellow poster is against forum and board rules. It also might do to remind you that the rules exist for everyone, not for you to use them against someone you disagree with.

I either missed something or this confirms that one of these guys is Scott Ritter

 

[Dirty Bird]

What you’re saying it’s every man (country) for himself. If a country gets invaded it shouldn’t receive any military help from other countries especially from the USA. They should just accept being invaded because we don’t want an escalation.
If New Zealand was being invaded we shouldn’t give them a few bushmasters because we’d only be escalating the conflict. If Indonesia invaded Papua New Guinea we shouldn’t give them a few bushmasters because we’d only be escalating the conflict. If China invaded Taiwan we shouldn’t give them a few bushmasters because we’d only be escalating the conflict.

When I read this the first time, I missed your first sentence and thought you were a fool.
Just realised you're not the fool, but showing up the actual fool

 

[Dirty Bird]

This aint removing Russia as a medium power, they'll be back, it's a big place with lots of minerals.

And are we really trusting that a nation which votes in Trump will do the right thing with regard to freedom and democracy? Favouring Saudi over Iran indicates the US favours the US above democracy. This is not a nation we should be encouraging to have full domination of the world militarily. The oligarchs of the US are slowly taking over the country. If they had uncontested military power, they'd use it.

As true as it was in Roman times, or in The Phantom Menace, beware of, and understand, the real power behind the democratic process. Democracies are imperfect.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Visions]

You may remember in 2022 when Russia bombed a Ukrainian POW camp in Olenivka that killed over 50 soldiers who were also being mistreated. Well, it seems that the karma bus (or Ukrainian Secret Service) hit the head chief of that prison as he perished in a car bomb....

 

[Visions]

The amount of money Russia is allegedly spending on its war effort is staggering.

$200 billion dollars, wealth fund down by almost 2/3rds, and they're at the stage where things are going so swimmingly that Ukraine is in control of Russian territory. Winning....

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9, 2024

Russia continues to face staggering costs required to maintain its war effort against Ukraine, with mounting economic strain, labor shortages, and systemic corruption threatening the sustainability of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB). US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reported on December 7 that Russia has spent over $200 billion on its war in Ukraine and suffered at least 700,000 casualties since February 2022, with recent losses averaging 1,000 soldiers per day.[13] The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reported on December 9 that Russia's liquid assets in its National Welfare Fund dropped from $140 billion in February 2022 to $53.8 billion by December 1, 2024.[14] The Center noted that Russia increasingly relies on Chinese yuan reserves and gold sales to cover its budget deficit and is committing a third of its national budget for 2025-2027 to defense spending, indicating an unsustainable prioritization of the war at the expense of economic stability.[15] Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov claimed on December 9 that corruption crimes, including bribery, increased by nearly 30 percent in 2024 over 2023, with Russian authorities having disciplined over 30,000 Russian officials for corruption violations in 2024.[16] Russia's mounting economic pressures stemming from the war, paired with widespread corruption, labor shortages, and inefficiencies in Russia's DIB, will likely compound the cost of Russia's war and further undermine its ability to effectively sustain DIB operations while maintaining economic stability. ISW has previously observed reports of similar trends and statistics in the Russian economy, indicating that Russia's economic trajectory is unsustainable in the mid- to long-term and will increasingly strain its capacity to wage war against Ukraine.[17]

 

[Crankyhawk]

Russia has not won.

The crisis of Russia has intensified. Syria will soon be under the sway of US imperialism. The foothold of Russia in Syria has been eliminated.

This is a major geostrategic victory of US imperialism. It will now be able to use the victory of its proxies in Syria to tighten the noose around Russia.

Israel is not an independent entity. It is a complete client state of the US. Israel can only be properly understood in geopolitical terms as the extension of US imperialism in the Middle East. The Jihadists in Syria are proxies of the US.

The Iranian regime is incapable of leading a struggle against Zionism. This is because it fears the Iranian working class far more than anything else.

The Iranian regime defends the profit interests of Iranian capitalists. Therefore, it will never appeal to the Iranian working class to mobilise for its social interests (proper wages, proper housing, public education and health)

The only way out of this catastrophe is to build an international socialist movement of the working class, to unite the workers across the Middle East (Jewish workers, Syrian workers, Lebanese workers, Palestinian workers, ....) against all these criminal regimes who have nothing to offer except poverty, dictatorship and war.

Is taking Syria really a victory? I expect it will turn into another shitshow like Afghanistan

 

[Crankyhawk]

43,000. This is the first time I have seen a figure for Ukrainian soldiers KIA from President Z. 370,000 wounded, half of whom return to combat.

Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers in action since start of invasion, Zelensky says

This figure contrasts a claim made earlier the same day on Dec. 8 by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who wrote on his Truth Social platform that Ukrainian military losses had reached "400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians."

kyivindependent.com

Technically 43k + 370k is more than 400k I suppose I’d need to see whether trump referred to killed in action or casualties which can mean injured and out of the fight.

 

[Couch Coach]

 

[Couch Coach]

 

[Anzacpaul]

View attachment 2185534

Resident Vatniks going to buy their favourite Vodka.

 

[Zidane98]

Is taking Syria really a victory? I expect it will turn into another shitshow like Afghanistan

Assad being a murderous dictator and whichever government replaces his can both be awful at the same time.

You'd think the oil states in ME would want stability in Syria to get that ME to Turkey oil / gas pipeline done that Russia was so desperate to stop.

 

[Zidane98]

View attachment 2185534

I can't quite make out what this is saying lol.




Is it Russia using its wealth fund to prop up the Ruble effectively?

 

[Mofra]

Is taking Syria really a victory? I expect it will turn into another shitshow like Afghanistan

The US & Israel will be happy to have is under Sunni control. Iran's dream of a Shia supply line between Tehran and southern Lebanon is all but finished.
Russia's most important strategic naval asset outside of Russian waters is likely gone in coming months too.

This is nightmare scenario stuff for Putin. Since he took power he's done evrything to project Russian influence and try to increase Russian birthrates/population due to their demographic crisis. Now he's got massive labour shortages and young people either dying or fleeing the country, the end of his middle eastern influence (don't forget he tried to cosy up to Ghaddafi pre-Arab Spring) and an economy that will take decades to recover.

 

[Zidane98]

The US & Israel will be happy to have is under Sunni control. Iran's dream of a Shia supply line between Tehran and southern Lebanon is all but finished.
Russia's most important strategic naval asset outside of Russian waters is likely gone in coming months too.

This is nightmare scenario stuff for Putin. Since he took power he's done evrything to project Russian influence and try to increase Russian birthrates/population due to their demographic crisis. Now he's got massive labour shortages and young people either dying or fleeing the country, the end of his middle eastern influence (don't forget he tried to cosy up to Ghaddafi pre-Arab Spring) and an economy that will take decades to recover.

There's reports Putin is desperately negotiating access to Tartus naval base & Khemmim airbase with the rebels.


The only way Putin could enact a rapid recovery of the economy is a complete withdrawal from Ukraine, peace agreement in exchange for rapid reintegration into the world markets for Russian oil / gas.


Putin's dreams of Russian influence far and wide are mostly dead now. Russia would do well to focus on allies in Belarus, Central Asia and a working relationship with China as their sphere of influence.

 

[Couch Coach]

Putin upsetting china now

First salvo of a Russia-China trade war - Asia Times

Russia has imposed a 55.65% tariff on China’s furniture parts, upsetting not only domestic furniture makers, but also many Chinese pundits

asiatimes.com

 

[Couch Coach]

Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 (@evgen-istrebin.bsky.social)

Inflation of vegetables and fruits in Russia amounted to 27% y/y

bsky.app

 

[Mofra]

There's reports Putin is desperately negotiating access to Tartus naval base & Khemmim airbase with the rebels.


The only way Putin could enact a rapid recovery of the economy is a complete withdrawal from Ukraine, peace agreement in exchange for rapid reintegration into the world markets for Russian oil / gas.


Putin's dreams of Russian influence far and wide are mostly dead now. Russia would do well to focus on allies in Belarus, Central Asia and a working relationship with China as their sphere of influence.

Tough ask given up until a few days ago aircraft from that same airbase were bombing the rebels.

 

[Zidane98]

Russians have attacked IAEA inspectors on way to Zaporzizhia with a drone:

 

[tricknologist]

Anders Puck Nielsen on the money (again):



The Putin regime has turned into an absolute clown show, both domestically and abroad. All because Putin deluded himself into thinking Russia is an actual great power.

 

[Andre]

View attachment 2185534

LOL. Hyperinflation incoming. Printing money when inflation is already high has never gone badly ever