Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[OhhhhhCyril]

For those who know, how many players do we have out of contact as of right now?

 

[Dangleberry]

Like many others have said, I wouldn't give 2 firsts or a best 22 player but anything else I'm very comfortable with. Getting both Barras and Battle unlocks so much potential in many other players. We could potentially see entire new forward line and midfield dynamics by bringing them in and moving others around. It may even unlock another game plan. Who knows? I just think the positives are endless.

 

[rei154]

For those who know, how many players do we have out of contact as of right now?

Has a squiz at the contract status thread

List Mgmt. - Contract Status

Picking up from Dixie Flatline 's excellent list above. Current known contract expiry by year: 2024 Josh Bennetts (B), Denver Grainger-Barras, Harry Morrison, Jack O'Sullivan (2022 ND), Ethan Phillips (SSP) (A), Cooper Stephens (A)*, Clay Tucker (A), Chad Wingard 2025 Luke Breust, Sam...

www.bigfooty.com

Josh Bennetts (B), Denver Grainger-Barras, Harry Morrison , Jack O'Sullivan (2022 ND), Ethan Phillips (SSP) (A), Cooper Stephens (A)*, Clay Tucker (A), Chad Wingard

is the current 2024 bunch.

 

[butlers hawks]

I dont know if i am just an idiot but I'm consistently baffled about how they value players.

I dont think it comes from a place of bias either as I thought we brought in Tom Mitchell too cheaply at the time. Pick #14 for a 23yr old ball magnet seemed ridiculously cheap and I probably would have valued him at Pick 3-7 or two late first rounders.

Scrimshaw also seemed ridiculously cheap at #52 given his age and the pick he was drafted at by Gold Coast. It made sense to me that he was worth a 1st rounder possibly #10-15, possibly more given his age.

On the flip side I thought we let go of Brad Hill much too cheaply (#23), given that he was a 23yr old 3 times premiership player, and that proved to be right given that they traded him for Blake Acres and #10 a few seasons later. I just found that insulting that they got so much more for him when he hadn't improved as a player and he was 3yrs older.

For me age is a huge factor with trades. You're rolling the dice on how a player performs at your club. You're never going to beat father time and an older player is always going to come at a reduced value. Brian Lake is a good example of that. He was a gun but because of the fact that he was 31yrs old we basically got him for peanuts (#43 and a 2nd pick slide of 6 spots).

This brings me to Barrass who we are all hoping is Brian Lake v2.0 (only 2.5 years younger than Lake at the time of trade). Lake turned out to be the missing piece of the puzzle for that team so we all see him as the messiah but this is truly a best case scenario version of Barrass's potential. I personally doubt he is going to have anywhere near the impact Lake had in his three seasons with us, even with his 2.5 extra years.

If you had asked me before the speculation had started what he was worth I would have almost put him in the Lake category of "we will take him of your books for you" with a second rounder. So this talk about two first rounders or even a concessionary 1st and future 2nd genuinely blows my mind. His age is just too big a consideration to have him anywhere near that value. By contrast we have Geelong getting charity trades like Jack Bowes and pick 7 for nothing and Bailey Smith for a pick in the 20's and it all feels just insulting. It makes the club look weak and pathetic frankly.

Something else that I feel also needs mentioning is the conciliatory trades we have previously made with West Coast for Sam Mitchell (2 x late pick slides) and Brockman (#44) where it felt like we just said "give is what you feel they're worth" and we walked away with peanuts to now being highballed seems to me to be very bad faith.

I know he's contracted but it also should be mentioned that the player wants out. There is also some unsavoury stuff about West Coast being happy for him to seek a trade which shows that they're not desperate to retain his services they just see him as a trading pawn. They know he has played the best games that he is going to play for them. All very unpleasant.

Does anyone else share my confusion and disappointment?

It’s not just you but we can’t look at every trade like it sets the value of others.

Context always huge in these

You mentioned Mitchell who was finding it tough to get into a strong midfield despite him being a ball magnet, Scrimshaw was homesick and by reports at the time wasn’t giving it his all so they were happy enough to move him on

Hawthorn approached Tom Barrass in season and by reports were strong, sending over Hickmott then Mitchell. At the time the Dogs were also in contact with him

But the value of Brad Hill and Mitchell/Scrimshaw means nothing to the current deals. We in here hold that stuff more than the teams do.

The fact he is contracted is a huge component in this. As much as we keep hearing oh but he’s 28 or he’s injured or West Coast want him out etc they could simply say we are happy to keep him as a contracted player, he’s an All Australian and the same age as James Sicily who we would want everything they are wanting plus going the other way.

Can also say Hawthorn wouldn’t be this far down the line if he didn’t pass their medical

It will get done, it will have half the people in here annoyed at the cost but we will all enjoy watching him win flags for us

 

[TazHawk15]

We wouldn’t. Big difference between a coach candidate indicating a preference to keep a player and the club selecting that coach and then signing off on retaining the player.

Like Hawthorn we’re a well run club and I don’t think this deal is going to get messy at all. You can be glad you’re dealing with us and not Fremantle and I’m glad we’re dealing with the Hawks and not the c**k juggling f**kwits at Essendon or Geelong.

The WCE being a well run club is a bit of a stretch.

 

[bigmaxi]

This is a bad example unless the house is able to say "I'm done with you owning me and I want to be sold and you can only sell me to that one buyer". Barrass isn't on the open market at all. He has specifically requested to be traded to Hawthorn and West Coast have 2 options: 1. force him to stay and honour his contract or 2. trade him at the value we are willing to pay for him. It therefore boils down to what we are willing to offer vs what West Coast are willing to accept.

I kind of like the analogy, friends had to sell and move closer to a larger town due to poor health and needing to be closer to a hospital.
I can see a similarity with Barrass. Need to move him on as he has some value and need to rebuild their list. The deal will get done, depending on outcome someone will win more, Barrass wins us a flag or two OR the pick they get and use goes on to be a gun. Happy days.

 

[smish]

And Ward.

Are clubs knocking for Ward Tops?

 

[TheFourPillars]

The WCE being a well run club is a bit of a stretch.

They are they will be back up the ladder soon enough and competing

 

[Ned Ryerson]

The WCE being a well run club is a bit of a stretch.

It's really not.

 

[butlers hawks]

 

[Ned Ryerson]

If your surname is Cumming, it isn't well thought out parenting to give your kid a name that often gets shortened to 'Issie'.

 

[Bugs1977]

If your surname is Cumming, it isn't well thought out parenting to give your kid a name that often gets shortened to 'Issie'.

This also applies for the parents with the surname Kerr or King and named there kid Wang or Wayne

 

[butlers hawks]

If your surname is Cumming, it isn't well thought out parenting to give your kid a name that often gets shortened to 'Issie'.

This is why I come to BigFooty

 

[Simon Crawshay]

I dont know if i am just an idiot but I'm consistently baffled about how they value players.

I dont think it comes from a place of bias either as I thought we brought in Tom Mitchell too cheaply at the time. Pick #14 for a 23yr old ball magnet seemed ridiculously cheap and I probably would have valued him at Pick 3-7 or two late first rounders.

Scrimshaw also seemed ridiculously cheap at #52 given his age and the pick he was drafted at by Gold Coast. It made sense to me that he was worth a 1st rounder possibly #10-15, possibly more given his age.

On the flip side I thought we let go of Brad Hill much too cheaply (#23), given that he was a 23yr old 3 times premiership player, and that proved to be right given that they traded him for Blake Acres and #10 a few seasons later. I just found that insulting that they got so much more for him when he hadn't improved as a player and he was 3yrs older.

For me age is a huge factor with trades. You're rolling the dice on how a player performs at your club. You're never going to beat father time and an older player is always going to come at a reduced value. Brian Lake is a good example of that. He was a gun but because of the fact that he was 31yrs old we basically got him for peanuts (#43 and a 2nd pick slide of 6 spots).

This brings me to Barrass who we are all hoping is Brian Lake v2.0 (only 2.5 years younger than Lake at the time of trade). Lake turned out to be the missing piece of the puzzle for that team so we all see him as the messiah but this is truly a best case scenario version of Barrass's potential. I personally doubt he is going to have anywhere near the impact Lake had in his three seasons with us, even with his 2.5 extra years.

If you had asked me before the speculation had started what he was worth I would have almost put him in the Lake category of "we will take him of your books for you" with a second rounder. So this talk about two first rounders or even a concessionary 1st and future 2nd genuinely blows my mind. His age is just too big a consideration to have him anywhere near that value. By contrast we have Geelong getting charity trades like Jack Bowes and pick 7 for nothing and Bailey Smith for a pick in the 20's and it all feels just insulting. It makes the club look weak and pathetic frankly.

Something else that I feel also needs mentioning is the conciliatory trades we have previously made with West Coast for Sam Mitchell (2 x late pick slides) and Brockman (#44) where it felt like we just said "give is what you feel they're worth" and we walked away with peanuts to now being highballed seems to me to be very bad faith.

I know he's contracted but it also should be mentioned that the player wants out. There is also some unsavoury stuff about West Coast being happy for him to seek a trade which shows that they're not desperate to retain his services they just see him as a trading pawn. They know he has played the best games that he is going to play for them. All very unpleasant.

Does anyone else share my confusion and disappointment?

Getting Scrimmers for pick 52 still makes me shake my head. Honestly WTF were Gold Coast thinking?

That's the kind of price we would get for DGB now after four years of underperformance in the system. Scrimmers had only been in the system for two years and one of those years he was injured.

Still who are we to complain, he's arguably the best CHB in the league right at this very moment, will play 200+ games for the club, is a Hawks fanatic and we got him for a pick in the 50's, lol

 

[cryptor]

Saying "Barrass isn't even the best KPD at his club" is a rather disingenuous assessment when that other KPD is McGovern.

That's like saying Roughy wasn't even the best KPF at Hawthorn when Buddy was here.

 

[Bugs1977]

Getting Scrimmers for pick 52 still makes me shake my head. Honestly WTF were Gold Coast thinking?

That's the kind of price we would get for DGB now after four years of underperformance in the system. Scrimmers had only been in the system for two years and one of those years he was injured.

Still who are we to complain, he's arguably the best CHB in the league right at this very moment, will play 200+ games for the club, is a Hawks fanatic and we got him for a pick in the 50's, lol

To be fair Scrim's value was so low at the time we traded for him because he had only played 4 games in the seniors in his 2 years at GC. It's impossible to build any value when you're hardly playing and when you do in the ressies you look disinterested and homesick.



One thing I do recall in here though was that we were keeping tabs on him almost from the moment he arrived there (thoughts Topiary TylerDurden?). There was a lot of talk going on but once again it's easy to sit here and pretend like we knew we all knew we were going to get such a good player with what we know now.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

To be fair Scrim's value was so low at the time we traded for him because he had only played 4 games in the seniors in his 2 years at GC. It's impossible to build any value when you're hardly playing and when you do in the ressies you look disinterested and homesick.

View attachment 2113080

One thing I do recall in here though is that we were keeping tabs on him almost from the moment he arrived there (thoughts Topiary TylerDurden?). There was a lot of talk going on but once again it's easy to sit here and pretend like we knew we all knew we were going to get such a good player with what we know now.

Hindsight is always 20/20 but I remember Scrimmers first year for the Hawks back in 2019 when he played 10 games and even then you could see this guy had talent. You could see he was an AFL standard player right from the start.

Surely even though he didn't want to be up in QLD and was not motivated GC could still see that he had a lot of talent and giving him away for pick 52 was the equivalent of a fire sale?

As before though their loss = our gain so I'm not complaining!

 

[Lickmesocks]

You called him a near “generational defender”!

He’s not even been the best KPD at his current club. Clearly that’s been McGovern.

As I said, he’d be very handy but with Battle already locked in, we shouldn’t be grasping a second KPD with both hands unless the deal is in our favour and we can’t get a KPF in.

At present we have Chol and Dear and minimal decent back up because Lewis won’t play and Gunston is on the decline.

Are you tell me our quality tall forwards stocks don’t need bolstering?

Hawthorn have done the courting here, taken him out and then got him to pick us and put his reputation on the line while he is currently contracted .

It’s now on Hawthorn to get the deal done which we will because that’s what we do.

 

[TylerDurden]

If Cumming chooses Port, do they still want Perryman?

 

[butlers hawks]

 

[butlers hawks]

 

[TylerDurden]

Has to be Port then.

 

[butlers hawks]

Has to be Port then.

Has felt like Port for most of the season if we are honest

 

[Bardo State]

If Port get Cumming and Perryman, you'd think Houston is off to the highest bidder

 

[TylerDurden]

If Port get Cumming and Perryman, you'd think Houston is off to the highest bidder

Blues are certainties for Houston.