List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading Part 2

[Carmo]

Lol, on one hand you're accusing him of cherry picking stats and on the other you're changing history because you didn't like the result of a certain game.

I know whose analysis stands up better and it sure as shit isn't yours

As opposed to cherry picking one part of my post in amongst 50 pieces of other data, that sort of cherry picking? Looks like your the king of shitness then bro?

 

[Hodgy]

Have a look at his ruck take, give and go and snap goal.

Anyone saying he is horrendous is delusional.

Yeah, seems a strange take. Acceleration, co ordination for 205cm and athletisiscm are all really good. The lad has hardly played any footy yet as he changed from soccer late I believe. If we could somehow swap him for ROB now as a pre agent would be brilliant, unfortunately I think Essendon would want a lot more though.

 

[George Kramer]

Ok, lets do something more than a kindy level analysis here. Lets look at a bit bigger window of time, I'm doing the last two years, and look at the data a bit more carefully.

Age stats
Club, 2023 (ladder pos) , 2024 (ladder pos) , change
Adl, 24.8 (16), 24.8 (16), -
Fre, 24.6 (17), 25.0 (14), +0.4
Haw, 24.3 (18), 25.0 (15), +0.7

Experience stats
Club, 2023 (ladder pos) , 2024 (ladder pos), change
Adl, 83.0 (16), 79.7 (17), -3.3
Fre, 75.5 (17), 87.0 (15), +11.5
Haw, 70.9 (18), 91.0(14), +20.1

AFL ladder position stats
Club, 2023, 2024, average, change
Adl, 10*, 15, 12.5, -5
Fre, 14, 10, 12, +4
Haw, 16, 7, 11.5, +9

So if we look at the average AFL ladder positions over the last two years, Adl are 12.5 (11.5 if we get paid that goal against syd and win the game), 12 for Freo and 11.5 for Hawthorn. All pretty similar. At the same time, our positions on the age and experience ladders are all around 15 or 16 mark, which means all three teams our performing above expectation.

Which is to say our friend above has cherry picked the two teams and the one year to make his argument look best.

Also, lets look to see if we can find any explanations why we went backwards and Freo and Haw went forwards.
Lets look at the changes in age and experience from the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

Adel Age was no change, experience went backwards by 3.3 games. Adl ladder pos went -5.
Freo got older by 0.4 of a year and added 11.5 games of experience. Freo ladder pos went +4.
Haw got older by 0.7 of a year and added 20 games of experience. Haw ladder pos went +9.

But nothing to see here folks, absolutely no correlations or anything, its nothing to do with age or experience or lack of important players, no its all to do with Nix and Hamish and Reid and the club and anything else the bedwetting cartel wants to wet the bed about.

So you haven’t replied to my post about which of our inexperienced players are to blame for the drop off in our performance compared to our experienced players.

Did our coaches change our game plan at the beginning of the year? Did our coaches make stupid selections and match ups?

The issue with clappers like you are you hear what the club says and then try and frame an argument to match it. How about thinking for yourself for a change?

 

[FR0GGY]

You tell me, how experienced was Richmond?

3rd most

 

[Scorpus]

I use this one for the actual teams that were used during the year, lists arent so important to ladder outcomes as the players that played hey?

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

So if the coach chooses to play a certain team is that on the list managers for not having enough experience on the list, or the coach for picking the team?

 

[Scorpus]

It's also quite funny to claim that the difference between 2023 (11 wins) and 2024 (8 wins) is because on average the team we fielded had 3.3 games less experience per player

I mean no wonder we went backwards with that huge discrepancy

 

[Danger in Texas]

Yeah, seems a strange take. Acceleration, co ordination for 205cm and athletisiscm are all really good. The lad has hardly played any footy yet as he changed from soccer late I believe. If we could somehow swap him for ROB now as a pre agent would be brilliant, unfortunately I think Essendon would want a lot more though.

He's been in the system for 8 years?

 

[Scorpus]

But nothing to see here folks, absolutely no correlations or anything, its nothing to do with age or experience or lack of important players, no its all to do with Nix and Hamish and Reid and the club and anything else the bedwetting cartel wants to wet the bed about.

This makes absolutely no sense.

If we lack experience and important players, how is that not on Hamish and Reid whose job it is to recruit and manage the list?

On the one hand you're providing evidence our experience profile went backwards and on the other hand suggesting it's not related to list management.

Your data also suggests that in 2023 we overperformed, finishing 10th with the 16th most experienced team, and that actually the inherent quality of our team has been bottom 4 for the entire time Nicks has coached.

I mean I guess you could argue that's acceptable but I'm not convinced that having such an inexperienced team five years into Nicks tenure (due to decisions he made early in the rebuild) is actually good

 

[Carmo]

Lol, on one hand you're accusing him of cherry picking stats and on the other you're changing history because you didn't like the result of a certain game.

I know whose analysis stands up better and it sure as shit isn't yours

So you haven’t replied to my post about which of our inexperienced players are to blame for the drop off in our performance compared to our experienced players.

Did our coaches change our game plan at the beginning of the year? Did our coaches make stupid selections and match ups?

The issue with clappers like you are you hear what the club says and then try and frame an argument to match it. How about thinking for yourself for a change?

It's also quite funny to claim that the difference between 2023 (11 wins) and 2024 (8 wins) is because on average the team we fielded had 3.3 games less experience per player

I mean no wonder we went backwards with that huge discrepancy

My posts bring all the bedwetters to the yard

and they're like my beds wetter than yours

damn right its wetter than yours

 

[Mutineer]

He's been in the system for 8 years?

Those pesky little facts hey!

 

[Mutineer]

He's been in the system for 8 years?

A product of the Reynella Football Club (The Wineflies)

 

[Scorpus]

He's been in the system for 8 years?

Drafted the same year we drafted Elliott Himmelberg

 

[George Kramer]

My posts bring all the bedwetters to the yard

and they're like my beds wetter than yours

damn right its wetter than yours

So that’s a “I can’t refute I’ll deflect”

 

[Vader]

Gotta link to the source for that info?

It's correct, as far as the average age of the whole list is concerned:
https://www.draftguru.com.au/lists/2024

However, it's also misleading (and intentionally so by the ever disingenuous AFC979810). The teams Adelaide fielded were consistently the 1st or 2nd youngest & least experienced, all season.

 

[Vader]

I should also note that removing Sloane from Adelaide's list (given that he retired without playing a game) significantly reduces both our average age & experience, compared to the Draft Guru list.

Removing Sloane from the list reduces our average age from 24.2 to 24.0 years, and our average experience from 58.8 games per player to just 54.4.

Only Norf have a list which is both younger & less experienced.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Do you think Carmo conducted our “review”

What review...

 

[Mostyn]

It's also quite funny to claim that the difference between 2023 (11 wins) and 2024 (8 wins) is because on average the team we fielded had 3.3 games less experience per player

I mean no wonder we went backwards with that huge discrepancy

No, we just took a step back this year.

It's unrealistic to think a rebuild will be linear improvement year on year. This is not unexpected.

This issue will be what happens this year.

One year is a backward step. Two means we fundamentally are getting something wrong.

 

[AFC979810]

It's correct, as far as the average age of the whole list is concerned:
https://www.draftguru.com.au/lists/2024

However, it's also misleading (and intentionally so by the ever disingenuous AFC979810). The teams Adelaide fielded were consistently the 1st or 2nd youngest & least experienced, all season.

Its correct, but its disingenuous because it doesn't fit your narrative? C'mon.

We are very similar in list profile to both Fremantle and Hawthorn. Thats why I don't buy the excuse we are too young to contend for finals.

Maybe you are right - when we played Hawthorn and lost by 20 points - there was a massive discrepancy.

Hawthorn	Attribute	Adelaide
188.3cm	Height	187.9cm
85.7kg	Weight	90.0kg
25yr 4mth	Age	25yr 5mth
97.0	Games	90.8
Total Players By Games​
	Hawthorn	Games	Adelaide
7	Less than 50	9
8	50 to 99	6
2	100 to 149	4
4	150 to 200	1
2	200 or more	3

 

[Mostyn]

I mean, I would assume it's inarguable that our lack of experience has in some way contributed to our results this year.

And they obviously know that, judging by their off season efforts to bring in mature first 18 players.

Seems a strange thing to argue about.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

No, we just took a step back this year.

It's unrealistic to think a rebuild will be linear improvement year on year. This is not unexpected.

This issue will be what happens this year.

One year is a backward step. Two means we fundamentally are getting something wrong.

The main issue this year wasn’t our results, it was the bizzare, conservative, short-sighted decisions regarding selection and player development that was headed by our coaching and development staff.

 

[jackster83]

No, we just took a step back this year.

It's unrealistic to think a rebuild will be linear improvement year on year. This is not unexpected.

This issue will be what happens this year.

One year is a backward step. Two means we fundamentally are getting something wrong.

For us to make a meaningful step forward, we need to actually develop some players into A graders (and a support cast of B graders). We relied heavily on Tex, Laird, etc and now they are all just about done.

We know about the drafts that didn't work out (2015-19) and that is hurting us, but we seem to have done well from 2021 onwards. Hopefully Max, Worrell, Soligo, Rachele, Taylor, Curtin and Thilthorpe take big steps forward next year.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I should also note that removing Sloane from Adelaide's list (given that he retired without playing a game) significantly reduces both our average age & experience, compared to the Draft Guru list.

Removing Sloane from the list reduces our average age from 24.2 to 24.0 years, and our average experience from 58.8 games per player to just 54.4.

Only Norf have a list which is both younger & less experienced.

How about adding ANB & Cumming... who will actually be available to play... so our best 23 should actually increase in games.

 

[AFC979810]

So if we look at the average AFL ladder positions over the last two years, Adl are 12.5 (11.5 if we get paid that goal against syd and win the game), 12 for Freo and 11.5 for Hawthorn. All pretty similar. At the same time, our positions on the age and experience ladders are all around 15 or 16 mark, which means all three teams our performing above expectation.

So you admit that the three teams are about the same in list profile over the past 2-3 years.

Longmire has made the finals and won a final.
Mitchell has made the finals and won a final.
Nicks............

Age is not the reason we haven't made the finals, just like it didnt stop Hawthorn / Fremantle from winning a final.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I mean, I would assume it's inarguable that our lack of experience has in some way contributed to our results this year.

And they obviously know that, judging by their off season efforts to bring in mature first 18 players.

Seems a strange thing to argue about.

Are you suggesting it's a major factor?

Who let us down more this year?

1. Coaches & game plan?
2. Inexperienced players?
3. Experienced players?

Compare how we we went to the Hawks...

 

[Mostyn]

Are you suggesting it's a major factor?

Who let us down more this year?

1. Coaches & game plan?
2. Inexperienced players?
3. Experienced players?

Compare how we we went to the Hawks...

I suggest it is inarguable that it's a factor. I mean, obviously it is.

And it's a measurable, objective factor. Premiership ready sides are historically experienced. Bottom of the ladder sides are traditionally young.

Obviously there's other factors, but most of them are subjective. People would argue our horrible coaching or selection, and they can make a good case - but it's subjective and you can't really know whether alternatives would be better. You only know what actually happened, which was a clear backward step.