List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading Part 2

[George Kramer]

And the result is an average probably less than what ANB will play for us.

But you don’t draft to be average, otherwise you’d just trade in experienced players who will play the average amount of games. Well you could but you’d never win a flag.

 

[GreyCrow]

More and more its looking like we're locked in on bringing in Draper (of the Essendon variety) at the end of next year. Reckon they are rolling the dice on getting one more acceptable year from ROB.

We were locked in on Petty - so I'm not sold we are that locked in

 

[GameofSloanes]

I think I read somebody say that next year's draft is quite compromised in terms of a large number of FS / academy picks? Perhaps those 3rd rounders will have more value next year if there are clubs looking for points and when we'll presumably have more list spots available.

Good point, in terms of points what do 3 x F3 and 2 x F4 equal? If we could convert them into a 1st and/or 2nd that would be amazing

 

[Floating Doughnut]

B+, look out for tonight’s drunken stupor

in vino veritas.

edit : sometimes

 

[Cromulant]

But you don’t draft to be average, otherwise you’d just trade in experienced players who will play the average amount of games. Well you could but you’d never win a flag.

Geelong do almost exactly that, and do it well.

Theyve disregarded the draft for years.

 

[BRL121]

Good point, in terms of points what do 3 x F3 and 2 x F4 equal? If we could convert them into a 1st and/or 2nd that would be amazing

It certainly would be.

 

[George Kramer]

Geelong do almost exactly that, and do it well.

Theyve disregarded the draft for years.

Geelongs list is a combination of drafting, recruiting young talent from other clubs, trading in some guns and experienced players, they can continue to top up with experienced players as they are always in the window.

I’d be happy to apply the same strategy if we were always contending but we clearly aren’t and won’t be whilst ANB gets to the average games played for us.

 

[Crow till I die]

Geelongs list is a combination of drafting, recruiting young talent from other clubs, trading in some guns and experienced players, they can continue to top up with experienced players as they are always in the window.

I’d be happy to apply the same strategy if we were always contending but we clearly aren’t and won’t be whilst ANB gets to the average games played for us.

They bring in Bailey Smith for pick 17, as a player when up and running, he is right up there with the best and they get him for a back end 1st rounder. Its hard to compete with that.

 

[George Kramer]

They bring in Bailey Smith for pick 17, as a player when up and running, he is right up there with the best and they get him for a back end 1st rounder. It’s hard to compete with that.

Yep, Geelong work to a completely different model. But they also still draft but do it very well.

 

[Vader]

I haven't looked but I think he has played over 100 games straight? Missed very few over the last 4 years. Quite reliable so far

Would be close to 100 games straight - 25/23/25/23 games played over the last 4 seasons.

... but that's really beside the point. He will be 29 before the start of the season, and anyone banking on his body being able to maintain that level of durability is asking for trouble.

As I said before - 60 games for ANB is a par score. We should regard anything more than that as a bonus.

 

[Jarman3]

Good point, in terms of points what do 3 x F3 and 2 x F4 equal? If we could convert them into a 1st and/or 2nd that would be amazing

Depends on where they are.

EXPLAINER: All you need to know about the Trade Period

Here's everything you need to know about the Trade Period, Free Agency and more

www.afl.com.au

So the first pick of round 3 is 483 points, ranging down to the last pick of round 4 at 19 points.

Worst case scenario for 3xR3 + 2xR4 is 747 points, equivalent to around pick 25-26.

Best case is 1,795 points, equivalent to pick 5-6.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

Its a bit skewed by having most of these draftees aged 18 when drafted

DraftGuru suggests for picks 21-30 an 18 year old will - on average - play 90 games

I think its a fair question to ask and I would have a Smith Trigger of 70 games over 4 years as a pass for both the club and player of his age

Yeah that's true. Our 28 will probably be in the 30s after bids.

Only 41% of players picked in the 30s make it to 60 or more games. Most don't because so many end up on the scrap heap. These games are of less quality than what ANB should provide as a proven player compared to players who are still trying to prove themselves, and eventually fail.

 

[Vader]

Depends on where they are.

EXPLAINER: All you need to know about the Trade Period

Here's everything you need to know about the Trade Period, Free Agency and more

www.afl.com.au

So the first pick of round 3 is 483 points, ranging down to the last pick of round 4 at 19 points.

Worst case scenario for 3xR3 + 2xR4 is 747 points, equivalent to around pick 25-26.

Best case is 1,795 points, equivalent to pick 5-6.

... except that the Draft Value Index used to calculate the points is changing in 2026. The new values can be found here:
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1223455/the-draft-change-adding-another-element-to-upcoming-trade-frenzy

Picks in round 3 are now worth between 297 - 14 points, and picks in the 4th round have no points value at all.

The best case scenario (picks 37-39) will only be worth 853 points, equivalent to pick 18.

 

[GreyCrow]

As I said before - 60 games for ANB is a par score. We should regard anything more than that as a bonus.

Not going to fight on the hill about this but given his recent productivity I would expect at least 40 games in 25/26 and 25-30 in 27/28

 

[jackster83]

Not going to fight on the hill about this but given his recent productivity I would expect at least 40 games in 25/26 and 25-30 in 27/28

It's also easier to rack up the games when your team plays finals every year. Something that is unlikely for the next year or two at least.

 

[GreyCrow]

It's also easier to rack up the games when your team plays finals every year. Something that is unlikely for the next year or two at least.

Sunshine and lollipops - we are playing finals all 4 years

I've contacted the club about my gold membership

Finals baby




* Please dont quote this Port fans - I just dont care

 

[jirkago1975]

Not sure if it’s just me but I feel this period is underwhelming. I have to say I don’t know much about Peatling, Cummings could be good if he stays fit and ANB is good but 28. It will definitely improve our team as well as pick 4 but we finished 15 last year. It’s a strong draft and we trade out all our picks except for 4, think the players we already have won’t push us to a flag. Sure we could make the 8 next year but we are further from a flag than last year.
It’s hard to get excited after 25 plus years without a flag and we pick up more average players. It feels Nicks is desperate to make the 8 and will do anything to save his ass. On top of that, we still have no back up Ruck.

The only hope is we get a few football people like Balme in to clean up this mess and make us a footy team with relevance. The people in charge of the footy department are useless and know nothing about footy, we need a change now


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[cleanhands]

Not sure if it’s just me but I feel this period is underwhelming. I have to say I don’t know much about Peatling, Cummings could be good if he stays fit and ANB is good but 28. It will definitely improve our team as well as pick 4 but we finished 15 last year. It’s a strong draft and we trade out all our picks except for 4, think the players we already have won’t push us to a flag. Sure we could make the 8 next year but we are further from a flag than last year.
It’s hard to get excited after 25 plus years without a flag and we pick up more average players. It feels Nicks is desperate to make the 8 and will do anything to save his ass. On top of that, we still have no back up Ruck.

The only hope is we get a few football people like Balme in to clean up this mess and make us a footy team with relevance. The people in charge of the footy department are useless and know nothing about footy, we need a change now


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Disco Fox]

Not sure if it’s just me but I feel this period is underwhelming. I have to say I don’t know much about Peatling, Cummings could be good if he stays fit and ANB is good but 28. It will definitely improve our team as well as pick 4 but we finished 15 last year. It’s a strong draft and we trade out all our picks except for 4, think the players we already have won’t push us to a flag. Sure we could make the 8 next year but we are further from a flag than last year.
It’s hard to get excited after 25 plus years without a flag and we pick up more average players. It feels Nicks is desperate to make the 8 and will do anything to save his ass. On top of that, we still have no back up Ruck.

The only hope is we get a few football people like Balme in to clean up this mess and make us a footy team with relevance. The people in charge of the footy department are useless and know nothing about footy, we need a change now


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Wow, your glass is less than half empty!! All the pundits have given our list management either a B or A for this year's trade period.
If you'd watched GWS' finals games you would know that Peatling is a very good trade. We need mature leaders who will actually play well consistently(unlike Laird, Smith, Murphy - tell me when to stop!) & ANB is obviously a born leader if you watch his interviews. We need more speed around the ground - Peatling & Cumming have real speed & ANB will run an opponent into the ground with his stamina - think Duracell bunny. Plus, all three have finals experience.
I have been critical of the footy department, but they know a bit about the game in fairness - but yes, we can do better.

 

[Jarman3]

... except that the Draft Value Index used to calculate the points is changing in 2026. The new values can be found here:
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1223455/the-draft-change-adding-another-element-to-upcoming-trade-frenzy

Picks in round 3 are now worth between 297 - 14 points, and picks in the 4th round have no points value at all.

The best case scenario (picks 37-39) will only be worth 853 points, equivalent to pick 18.

I was about to say that's fine, next year is 2025, but yeah I think it's actually changing in 2025

Oh well, I guess we'll load up on 5 "Hamish specials" then

 

[Vader]

I was about to say that's fine, next year is 2025, but yeah I think it's actually changing in 2025

Oh well, I guess we'll load up on 5 "Hamish specials" then

Yeah... my bad. It's coming in next year, which will be 2025.

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

ANB will be 29 in January (i.e. before the start of the season). To get to 100 games for us he'd need to play pretty much every game for 4 years (assuming we play finals every year), or around 80% of all games over the next 5 years.

It's not impossible - but it's a fairly tall order for a player of his age. I'd say the club would be happy if we get 60 games out of him, anything more than that is a bonus.

He’s barely missed a game for years and is one of the fittest/hardest trainers out of any club. There is zero reason to think he couldn’t play almost every game for the next 4-5 years. Sports science is miles better these days too and we have one of the best in Burgess. There isn’t some sudden fall off a cliff after 30 these days for a lot of players, especially the ones that are super professional like ANB.

Unless he gets a freak injury, I think he’s a very strong chance of playing 100+ games at the club.

 

[Vader]

He’s barely missed a game for years and is one of the fittest/hardest trainers out of any club. There is zero reason to think he couldn’t play almost every game for the next 4-5 years. Sports science is miles better these days too and we have one of the best in Burgess. There isn’t some sudden fall off a cliff after 30 these days for a lot of players, especially the ones that are super professional like ANB.

Unless he gets a freak injury, I think he’s a very strong chance of playing 100+ games at the club.

I wish I could share your optimism - I just don't think it's terribly realistic.

I will, however, be very happy to be proven wrong!

 

[tinman]

Don't mind the 3 ins, should put immediate pressure on spots in the 18 next season.

Still finding it hard to fathom for a list with so much crap left on it we go into a 'super' draft with the intent of using just one pick (+ our father/son), this part of our list management has been below par.

Pretty clear that some recruiters ie. Richmond rate the draft as ‘super’ whereas others don’t ie. us.

It also depends on where your list is at. Freo, for example, prepared to give up two good picks for Bolton as he will have immediate impact rather than two draftees who are a couple of years away from being solid contributors.

I would have liked for us to move on a couple more guys and taken a couple more draftees. Or at least another one. We look like having at least two retirements next year and some easy delists.

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

I wish I could share your optimism - I just don't think it's terribly realistic.

I will, however, be very happy to be proven wrong!

I would have thought your way a decade ago, but the durability of athletes globally these days into late 30s/even early 40s is trending up in a big way. We’ve had the two oldest AAs in the last two season alone, that’s not a coincidence and will happen more and more.