Training 2024 Pre-Season discussion

[gogeelongcats]

Height and weight are their only similarities. Butters and Clark are completely different players. Butters significantly more tricks and x-factor.

Lets see in 2-3 years time

 

[BORIS332]

All true, but that's while carrying 100+ kgs rather than 90. It's a huge difference.

Even Christian Petracca looked slow and cumbersome in 2019, where bulked up too much, played poorly, and was being called a bust by every Dees supporter under the sun.

They even played him at full forward, as he didn't have the pace or the endurance to do anything in the midfield.

After that season, he has a huge preseason, loses some kilos, and looks like one of the most dynamic players in the game 6 months later.

I'm not for one second saying Stevens will be Christian Petracca, but the point is it doesn't matter who you are, you're going to look be a lot slower carrying 10-15 kilos of unwanted weight.

Agree! Not saying he can't improve in that area, just that his leg speed has held him back and probably a big reason he was drafted so late.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Are the boys back on the track?? Any updates

 

[catswhiskers]

A lot of highlights show Stevens hand balling from congestion rather than bursting thru and delivering at pace. If he can get first hands on , on the Inside pace is not the main issue.

Getting from contest to contest and quick reaction times are the primary requirement.

He will be an interesting watch.

On SM-G930U using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

It probably applies anywhere outside about pick 25 and there's a decent sample of failures from then on. Apart from father sons (Kennedy and Watson) and mature agers (Priddis, Menegola) I'm struggling to think of players after pick 25 recruited as big bodied slowish mids who have made an impact at AFL level.

Yet every year there's a slider who gets obsessed over. We've had our share with Jansen, Constable and now Stevens.

I really hope he defies the odds and makes it. But even if he does become a Kennedy or Watson type which would be amazing they were slow burns so he probably wouldn't debut this year anyway.

Luke Parker

 

[stac]

Went ok

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Rohan wasnt sub par but hes starting to struggle with soft tissue injuries (a telltale sign of age) and henry had a breakout year (i see him as b23 from here on out) and dempsey is getting to a point where his form is demanding games (and you cant pick all three unless one of them plays down back). So its easy to see rohan getting the dahlhaus/menegola vfl treatment.

Oconnor has been reasonably good but i wouldnt say is guaranteed b22. His versatility will help him get games though for eg he can easily take over the small defender role from bews which would allow us to prioritise guys like knevitt and clark as midfielders.

Duncan offers us something we need with his ball use but again soft tissue injuries are the issue..it depends on where his body and performance is at.

Guthrie im less worried about as he was very durable until this year.

Thats it , and the only issue is exactly that injuries

And when hes fully fit , hes in Geelongs best dozen players , and an extremely dangerous player , they will slip him into FF for a short burst , and he is a hell of match up for the FB , given his overhead marking prowess , and i do remember Rohans performance against Melb last year at KP , yes there was the unfortunate accident with JC - but Rohans performance that night was sensational including the sealing goal

Fully fit , not many players can put in performances like that

 

[stac]

Andrew Embley

Andrew Embley

Age

43

Ht

189cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.1

4star

K

11.6

4star

HB

6.5

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

2.2

4star

CL

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.8

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

0.4

3star

Not slow but not not lightning either

draft number is just that a number

There is an ever increasing number of late picks who make very good contributions

 

[Footy Smarts]

Andrew Embley
Not slow but not not lightning either

draft number is just that a number

There is an ever increasing number of late picks who make very good contributions

Embley was a winger not an inside mid.

Luke Parker is a decent shout. I know he had elite endurance at the time of the draft. Set a 15+ beep test which might've been the all-time record to that point.

Stevens ran a 6:37 2km which is decent but not elite. But that's coming off an ACL and being a bit too bulky so it's possible he could have a pretty elite running ability. That's probably his best bet to make the grade. Good on the inside, learn where to run to cover his lack of acceleration and become an absolute endurance machine in the Menegola mould.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Went ok

He was on the uncle Dougs.

 

[Vdubs]

All true, but that's while carrying 100+ kgs rather than 90. It's a huge difference.

Even Christian Petracca looked slow and cumbersome in 2019, where bulked up too much, played poorly, and was being called a bust by every Dees supporter under the sun.

They even played him at full forward, as he didn't have the pace or the endurance to do anything in the midfield.

After that season, he has a huge preseason, loses some kilos, and looks like one of the most dynamic players in the game 6 months later.

I'm not for one second saying Stevens will be Christian Petracca, but the point is it doesn't matter who you are, you're going to look be a lot slower carrying 10-15 kilos of unwanted weight.

also had an ACL reconstruction very early career, which should be mentioned

 

[Hinkley29]

I hope not. It’s just my own rule of thumb on key forward progress and as Warhorse sais yesterday jamarra Hagen also kicked 35 goals in his third season and curnow also kicked 35 which is identical to Hawkins and n ablett in their third years to give some further validity to it.

You don’t need to be a superstar, but you should be standing on your own two feet contributing as a key forward In your third season of AFL kicking your 1-2 goals a game.

Neale from his limited appearances in 2023 was not holding his own in his 4 appearances as a forward, not even close… you would hope for a much improved output or he will find himself dropped fairly quickly

Edit:… just researched jack riewoldt in his third AFL season… he kicked 32 goals…. Exact same as Hawkins and ablett… the rule is gaining a lot of statistical evidence here

Neale isn’t behind those players because he isn’t good enough. He is behind those players because of lack opportunity due to playing behind Hawkins and Cameron.

Jamara, Curnow and Reiwoldt were all gifted games early in their careers by their clubs. Neale has not had that luxury because he was drafted to a club that had an embarrassment of riches in tall forwards and was competing for flags.

Curnow was gifted 27 development games in his first 2 years and then kicked 34 goals from 20 games in his third year.

Jamara was gifted 22 development games in his first 2 years and then kicked 35 goals from 23 games in his third year.

Reiwoldt was gifted 26 development games in his first 2 years and then kicked 32 goals from 20 games in his third year.

I have little doubt that if any of these players were drafted to Geelong in 2020 as a second round draft pick that they would have been lucky to play 10 games in their first three years.

I also have little doubt that if Shannon Neale was gifted the games they were gifted in his first 3 seasons he would have been a 30 goals a season forward in year 3.

I also have little doubt that the plan for Neale this year is for him to get 15ish games and see how he performs. I am quietly confident that he will be a decent performer, and will have a solid career.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

My theory is kids who are really tall all the way through junior footy generally have soft hands and are poor marks as they never have to develop strong hands"" as it is too easy for them through junior footy. I think Neale could be in this category.

Hope he makes it, but I think he will be more a role player. The advantage he has is that for a guy his size he is a good kick. Does not have to get a lot of kicks to hurt on the scoreboard. Even if he cannot mark just need him to hit a pack hard and compete. At least bring it to ground and take the odd mark on the lead.

What makes you think he can't mark though? I had thought his leading patterns were a bit suspect in his first year where he kept running real wide into the pockets and putting himself on bad angles, but I never really got the sense he was dropping many good leads

 

[crocsta]

What makes you think he can't mark though? I had thought his leading patterns were a bit suspect in his first year where he kept running real wide into the pockets and putting himself on bad angles, but I never really got the sense he was dropping many good leads

From what I’ve seen, Neale gets into good positions but just doesn’t quite finish with a one grab mark.

I call home “nearly” as always so close to taking the mark

 

[Kobe Gryant]

also had an ACL reconstruction very early career, which should be mentioned

And so did Stevens, which undoubtedly contributed to him going from 84kgs to 100+ in 18 months.

I'm one of Petraccas biggest fans. Love him as a player, and think he's a really good bloke too, but let's not rewrite history here.

In 2019, particularly early on, rightly or wrongly he was seen as the epitome of the Demons issues.

Carrying weight, and looked like he had gone backwards from the previous flashes he had shown.

Most reasonable Dees supporters had cut him some slack for '16, '17, & '18, mainly off the back of the ACL that you mention...but by '19, a lot of them wanted him gone, and it was shape up or ship out.

Has a huge pre-season, drops 10-15kgs while improving his running, and the rest is history.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

It probably applies anywhere outside about pick 25 and there's a decent sample of failures from then on. Apart from father sons (Kennedy and Watson) and mature agers (Priddis, Menegola) I'm struggling to think of players after pick 25 recruited as big bodied slowish mids who have made an impact at AFL level.

Yet every year there's a slider who gets obsessed over. We've had our share with Jansen, Constable and now Stevens.

I really hope he defies the odds and makes it. But even if he does become a Kennedy or Watson type which would be amazing they were slow burns so he probably wouldn't debut this year anyway.

I don't think anyones obsessing over Stevens, quite the opposite if anything.

We've been burnt by these types in the past with the players you mention, and it's led to many on here being understandably cautious over what they expect out of him.

For me, it's a wait and see on what he looks like with an AFL body/fitness level.

He's already lost 10kgs, so it's pretty clear he's not unprofessional, he just blew out a bit after an ACL, which is more than fair.

The only real question mark on him appears to be pace, and to a lesser extent endurance.

With a lighter frame, he's going to go a long way away in alleviating those concerns over the coming months, and he could surprise early on in the VFL.

Kicking - Tick
Ability to find the ball - Tick
Leadership - Tick
Professionalism - Tick
Speed - TBC
AFL standard fitness - TBC

Not a bad starting point, and FWIW, your set of criteria is pretty hard to find.

For one, the league has only shifted to 'big bodied midfielders' in the last 10-15 years.

The likes of Kouta, Judd & even Joel Corey where seen as anomalies, it wasn't really until Fyfe that we saw them consistently drafted (Bont, Cripps, and so on)

Two, Stevens is a rare case in the sense that we don't even know if he is a 'big bodied mid', or he's just blown out post the ACL.

Prior to the ACL, he was 84kg at 189cm, which is much closer to the norm at AFL level nowadays rather than the specific circumstances you've outlined.

He's a big human by normal society standards, but he's closer to the average in an AFL environment at his natural weight, rather than the weight post injury.

Basically what I'm saying is if he never did the knee, he stays at that weight, and a lot of the concerns attached to him are lessened considerably.

In all likelihood, he goes late first/early second round in that universe, and we probably don't end up with him.

Every case is different, and there's not really a recent comparison to Stevens to go off.

The irony off it is he's probably closest to Clayton Oliver, who was seen as a rookie prospect until very late in the year (like October late), before shooting up the draft boards.

The difference for Clarry was he had no injury to excuse himself, he was just fat and slow, and had to fix that in his his first year at the Dees.

Luke Parker & Angus Sheldrick are probably the other two, but again it's all unique. We can't generalise as so much of this story is based on an injury, and the repercussions caused by it.

 

[Hinkley29]

Height and weight are their only similarities. Butters and Clark are completely different players. Butters significantly more tricks and x-factor.

How would we know if Clark has any tricks or x-factor? His exposed form is non existent.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I don't think anyones obsessing over Stevens, quite the opposite if anything.

We've been burnt by these types in the past with the players you mention, and it's led to many on here being understandably cautious over what they expect out of him.

For me, it's a wait and see on what he looks like with an AFL body/fitness level.

He's already lost 10kgs, so it's pretty clear he's not unprofessional, he just blew out a bit after an ACL, which is more than fair.

The only real question mark on him appears to be pace, and to a lesser extent endurance.

With a lighter frame, he's going to go a long way away in alleviating those concerns over the coming months, and he could surprise early on in the VFL.

Kicking - Tick
Ability to find the ball - Tick
Leadership - Tick
Professionalism - Tick
Speed - TBC
AFL standard fitness - TBC

Not a bad starting point, and FWIW, your set of criteria is pretty hard to find.

For one, the league has only shifted to 'big bodied midfielders' in the last 10-15 years.

The likes of Kouta, Judd & even Joel Corey where seen as anomalies, it wasn't really until Fyfe that we saw them consistently drafted (Bont, Cripps, and so on)

Two, Stevens is a rare case in the sense that we don't even know if he is a 'big bodied mid', or he's just blown out post the ACL.

Prior to the ACL, he was 84kg at 189cm, which is much closer to the norm at AFL level nowadays rather than the specific circumstances you've outlined.

He's a big human by normal society standards, but he's closer to the average in an AFL environment at his natural weight, rather than the weight post injury.

Basically what I'm saying is if he never did the knee, he stays at that weight, and a lot of the concerns attached to him are lessened considerably.

In all likelihood, he goes late first/early second round in that universe, and we probably don't end up with him.

Every case is different, and there's not really a recent comparison to Stevens to go off.

The irony off it is he's probably closest to Clayton Oliver, who was seen as a rookie prospect until very late in the year (like October late), before shooting up the draft boards.

The difference for Clarry was he had no injury to excuse himself, he was just fat and slow, and had to fix that in his his first year at the Dees.

Luke Parker & Angus Sheldrick are probably the other two, but again it's all unique. We can't generalise as so much of this story is based on an injury, and the repercussions caused by it.

84kgs and 189cm is massive for a 15-16 year old.

I just think the people talking about him having an immediate impact are dreaming. And there are a lot around here and in the media thinking that.

Even if he turns into a superstar Tom Green played 6 games in his first year, Cripps 3, Kennedy was traded for almost nothing and Watson was nearly delisted. The big inside mids take time.

That'll be especially true for a guy coming off an ACL who was probably 10kg overweight. This year should be as much about getting his body right and learning his craft as anything.

 

[Footy Smarts]

How would we know if Clark has any tricks or x-factor? His exposed form is non existent.

We only really saw it in one VFL game when he played a bit of half back but he oozed class with ball in hand.

 

[thejester]

84kgs and 189cm is massive for a 15-16 year old.

I just think the people talking about him having an immediate impact are dreaming. And there are a lot around here and in the media thinking that.

Even if he turns into a superstar Tom Green played 6 games in his first year, Cripps 3, Kennedy was traded for almost nothing and Watson was nearly delisted. The big inside mids take time.

That'll be especially true for a guy coming off an ACL who was probably 10kg overweight. This year should be as much about getting his body right and learning his craft as anything.

While I think you’re right, he was BOG in his first VFL game last year. That says more about the VFL side than Stevens readiness for the seniors but it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out if he’s putting up big numbers every week in the twos.

 

[BORIS332]

I don't think anyones obsessing over Stevens, quite the opposite if anything.

We've been burnt by these types in the past with the players you mention, and it's led to many on here being understandably cautious over what they expect out of him.

For me, it's a wait and see on what he looks like with an AFL body/fitness level.

He's already lost 10kgs, so it's pretty clear he's not unprofessional, he just blew out a bit after an ACL, which is more than fair.

The only real question mark on him appears to be pace, and to a lesser extent endurance.

With a lighter frame, he's going to go a long way away in alleviating those concerns over the coming months, and he could surprise early on in the VFL.

Kicking - Tick
Ability to find the ball - Tick
Leadership - Tick
Professionalism - Tick
Speed - TBC
AFL standard fitness - TBC

Not a bad starting point, and FWIW, your set of criteria is pretty hard to find.

For one, the league has only shifted to 'big bodied midfielders' in the last 10-15 years.

The likes of Kouta, Judd & even Joel Corey where seen as anomalies, it wasn't really until Fyfe that we saw them consistently drafted (Bont, Cripps, and so on)

Two, Stevens is a rare case in the sense that we don't even know if he is a 'big bodied mid', or he's just blown out post the ACL.

Prior to the ACL, he was 84kg at 189cm, which is much closer to the norm at AFL level nowadays rather than the specific circumstances you've outlined.

He's a big human by normal society standards, but he's closer to the average in an AFL environment at his natural weight, rather than the weight post injury.

Basically what I'm saying is if he never did the knee, he stays at that weight, and a lot of the concerns attached to him are lessened considerably.

In all likelihood, he goes late first/early second round in that universe, and we probably don't end up with him.

Every case is different, and there's not really a recent comparison to Stevens to go off.

The irony off it is he's probably closest to Clayton Oliver, who was seen as a rookie prospect until very late in the year (like October late), before shooting up the draft boards.

The difference for Clarry was he had no injury to excuse himself, he was just fat and slow, and had to fix that in his his first year at the Dees.

Luke Parker & Angus Sheldrick are probably the other two, but again it's all unique. We can't generalise as so much of this story is based on an injury, and the repercussions caused by it.

I have a couple of concerns with this assessment. Despite his ACL, he still played round one this year. How did he stay at 100kgs all the way to the draft combine? Post-ACL blow out may be a thing, but he kept that weight on all year.

The other concern is whether his pace is due to his weight, his ACL or just a natural lack of pace.

I also can’t remember any draftee doing an ACL in their juniors and having a good AFL career. The most recent was probably Kemp at Carlton? Who seems to be struggling a bit.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I have a couple of concerns with this assessment. Despite his ACL, he still played round one this year. How did he stay at 100kgs all the way to the draft combine? Post-ACL blow out may be a thing, but he kept that weight on all year.

The other concern is whether his pace is due to his weight, his ACL or just a natural lack of pace.

I also can’t remember any draftee doing an ACL in their juniors and having a good AFL career. The most recent was probably Kemp at Carlton? Who seems to be struggling a bit.

Max King was recovering from an ACL but was still taken pick 4. He goes ok.

I wouldn't read too much in to his weight. We don't know what his priorities were, what advice he was getting, what his diet was like, etc. He still got himself into a shape to play really well and even have pretty good endurance. If he has the right work rate the weight will come off in no time in a professional environment and with 2-3 big preseasons into him he'll be strong and lean.

 

[Vdubs]

And so did Stevens, which undoubtedly contributed to him going from 84kgs to 100+ in 18 months.

I'm one of Petraccas biggest fans. Love him as a player, and think he's a really good bloke too, but let's not rewrite history here.

In 2019, particularly early on, rightly or wrongly he was seen as the epitome of the Demons issues.

Carrying weight, and looked like he had gone backwards from the previous flashes he had shown.

Most reasonable Dees supporters had cut him some slack for '16, '17, & '18, mainly off the back of the ACL that you mention...but by '19, a lot of them wanted him gone, and it was shape up or ship out.

Has a huge pre-season, drops 10-15kgs while improving his running, and the rest is history.

I know Petracca quite well from when he was a kid, and know he was a star player at Eastern Ranges; the closest player in ability to GAS that I have ever seen. Vertical leap, marking, game changing- players and supporters just could not take their eyes off him- and this was age 16, 17, 18. Stevens has no pedigree like Petracca. Size ?

It matters not what supporters thought of Petracca in the early days- he took time to mature, as did GAJ. He was ALWAYS going to be a star player, worthy of being thought of as #1 in the comp. Very few recent drafted players come close to that.

 

[catswhiskers]

Neale isn’t behind those players because he isn’t good enough. He is behind those players because of lack opportunity due to playing behind Hawkins and Cameron.

Jamara, Curnow and Reiwoldt were all gifted games early in their careers by their clubs. Neale has not had that luxury because he was drafted to a club that had an embarrassment of riches in tall forwards and was competing for flags.

Curnow was gifted 27 development games in his first 2 years and then kicked 34 goals from 20 games in his third year.

Jamara was gifted 22 development games in his first 2 years and then kicked 35 goals from 23 games in his third year.

Reiwoldt was gifted 26 development games in his first 2 years and then kicked 32 goals from 20 games in his third year.

I have little doubt that if any of these players were drafted to Geelong in 2020 as a second round draft pick that they would have been lucky to play 10 games in their first three years.

I also have little doubt that if Shannon Neale was gifted the games they were gifted in his first 3 seasons he would have been a 30 goals a season forward in year 3.

I also have little doubt that the plan for Neale this year is for him to get 15ish games and see how he performs. I am quietly confident that he will be a decent performer, and will have a solid career.

In the game last year v Collingwood Neale playing ruck/ but forward mainly had 10 disposals. I think it was this game he missed two quite gettable goals by his standard. He is a very good kick...I turned to my kids when he was lining up for the first shot in this game from 40m..said watch this! He missed. Then he repeated the dose a little later missing everything.

He took 3 overhead marks..which surprised me. Not big marks but in one on ones. The ball came in to his advantage.. different to VFL.

If his stats had read 10 disposals, 12 HO and 2 goals it would speak of a promising young ruck/forward.

V the eventual premiers.

Let's see.

We will know by end 2024.

EDIT: the game where Neale missed the two goals was v Bulldogs. He actually kicked one and missed two set shots. Played mainly up forward. In checking the Collingwood game stats the stats above are correct. Watching a replay of highlights Neale hand balled to Cameron in general play for one goal and passed another to a team mate for an easy goal.

Still lets see.

On SM-G930U using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BORIS332]

In the game last year v Collingwood Neale playing ruck/ but forward mainly had 10 disposals. I think it was this game he missed two quite gettable goals by his standard. He is a very good kick...I turned to my kids when he was lining up for the first shot in this game from 40m..said watch this! He missed. Then he repeated the dose a little later missing everything.

He took 3 overhead marks..which surprised me. Not big marks but in one on ones. The ball came in to his advantage.. different to VFL.

If his stats had read 10 disposals, 12 HO and 2 goals it would speak of a promising young ruck/forward.

V the eventual premiers.

Let's see.

We will know by end 2024.

On SM-G930U using BigFooty.com mobile app

Neale has all the tools, he just needs continuity at AFL level now.