Be nice to take some wind out of their sails wouldn't it.
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Autopsy AFL 2023 Round 3 - Pies v Tigers Fri March 31st 7:50pm AEDT (MCG)
- Thread starter Wosh
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Obviously some chance because this really should be two eventual top 8 sides playing off, but that chance gets slimmer the less likely some key players play for us, and when you compare how the sides have looked so far, we'd need to lift A LOT to match their current level.
I probably have it 75/25 Collingwoods way
Even with your likely outs, I don't see it being that wide. I think more 55/45 heading into the game
- Sep 14, 2005
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Yep, I don’t think the result is as clear cut as people may believe.
The market has it somewhere inbetween - $1.52 v $2.55 (106%) -> 63/37 game.
Certainly by no means a fait accompli.
Though before the start of the season Richmond were more favoured for the flag than Collingwood, so suspect there's some residual thinking here.
Based on form and Richmond's outs, I'm very confident as a Collingwood supporter.
Again, while there are better analysts, their is also a high number of mug gamblers that sway the market
You should be confident, but I still don't think the current odds are reflective of the outcome, certainly not the margin
Hate to say it, but Collingwood by 4-5 goals.
You've proven time and again that you don't understand betting.
If 1000 'mug gamblers' sway the odds in the 'wrong' direction, a professional punter will come in and right the wrong....
And it takes a 2nd reply for you to play the man rather than debate a topic
Want me to share examples of your poor maths capabilities?
You have have shared an opinion, which differs to mine, so just move on
Yep, please do.
Whilst you're at it, you can explain your mathematical function of 'possibility'....
Because apparently I don't understand the difference between probability and possibility if I correctly reference the mathematical function that is probability when discussing the likelihood of specific events.
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Yep, please do.
Whilst you're at it, you can explain your mathematical function of 'possibility'....
Because apparently I don't understand the difference between probability and possibility if I correctly reference the mathematical function that is probability when discussing the likelihood of specific events.
Okay, you want to keep this line of interaction
What was it, if Carlton beat the Pies in 1 of our 2 outings last year, that Pies would still be 3 games clear, rather than the eventual 4 game margin?
Back to the topic, you are making assumptions that professional punters would engage in this game, all games, or any game.
But please, explain to me that professional punters backed the Cats last week, where the odds were almost identical to the Tigers v Pies game and that those odds are a real reflection of the outcome
You really are out of your depth fadge
Oh, OK.
So you thought an underdog was a reasonable chance to win, and they won so therefore the market was wrong and you were right?
Gotcha.
In that case the market was also clearly wrong when they were offering $5 for Carlton to miss the top 8 with 3 rounds to go in 2022...
You forgot to explain the mathematical function of possibility.
Nice try and more incorrect assumption at how I gauge value
I think the example I shared is clear evidence of your inept maths skills
As for your posts on possibility and probability in another thread, plenty of people witnessed that debacle
Yep, it was a debacle and you completely embarrassed yourself though no doubt failed to realise it...
In the world according to Arrow, the premiership market is completely wrong. As only one team can win it, the odds for 17 teams are grossly understated whilst the odds for one team are grossly overstated.
He just can't tell you who these teams are yet...
Again, nice try at deflecting. But you really aren't that clever, so I will keep dragging you back
5, so called non favourites with betting agencies, won in round 2
But you want to tell people the odds, this early in the season, are reflective of the likely outcome and margin
Mug gambler
And if you exclude the draw, 5 of the 8 favourites won their matches in round 1, in tight betting markets where Collingwood at $2.60 were the longest odds of any team that round.
Have you modelled how you would go betting on underdogs all season, or for specific periods of a season?
I have.
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We better come to play otherwise could get ugly- pies are flying at the moment
You are out of your league fadge, be content with your dollar coin wagers and convincing people that odds are gospel
Collingwood, Essendon and Carlton combined have won 5 of their last 40 matches v Richmond. Therefore the correct odds of Collingwood winning are 7 to 1, or $8.0.
Of course Fadge will try to bring into the conversation that Collingwood beat us a few times when we were slightly off the boil for 35 years or so, or that Collingwood don't belong with the other peloton sized clubs chasing the Tigey Wigez who are the biggest of the Vic clubs, or that based on 2023 averages Collingwood can expect an umpire provided limousine escort to victory to the tune of 16 extra free kicks for the match, or the revenge factor that burns strongly within that campaigner of a club or us inflicting defeat upon them in 6 of our most recent 7 finals meetings.
Tigers well known to switch off for round 3 being 0-4 last 4 seasons for that fixture, before scooping precisely half the Premierships available to be won in that time. This is our only slight concern this week, but I can't escape the fact the Pies are a peloton club and anything under $8.0 doesn't look value to me.
And "cheap kick" Nick meets his 20yo master Professor Morioli again......
MixedDeepBarnacle.mp4
Of course Fadge will try to bring into the conversation that Collingwood beat us a few times when we were slightly off the boil for 35 years or so, or that Collingwood don't belong with the other peloton sized clubs chasing the Tigey Wigez who are the biggest of the Vic clubs, or that based on 2023 averages Collingwood can expect an umpire provided limousine escort to victory to the tune of 16 extra free kicks for the match, or the revenge factor that burns strongly within that campaigner of a club or us inflicting defeat upon them in 6 of our most recent 7 finals meetings.
Tigers well known to switch off for round 3 being 0-4 last 4 seasons for that fixture, before scooping precisely half the Premierships available to be won in that time. This is our only slight concern this week, but I can't escape the fact the Pies are a peloton club and anything under $8.0 doesn't look value to me.
And "cheap kick" Nick meets his 20yo master Professor Morioli again......
MixedDeepBarnacle.mp4
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Judging by last seasons larger sample size Richmond are all over this, Collingwood's pressure being elite and not much else.
This season has Collingwood close to unbeatable, being well above their opponents in almost all facets of the game.
Hopefully we can win clearances, lock the ball inside our forward half for long periods and kick a decent score, otherwise it could get ugly.
This season has Collingwood close to unbeatable, being well above their opponents in almost all facets of the game.
Hopefully we can win clearances, lock the ball inside our forward half for long periods and kick a decent score, otherwise it could get ugly.
By this logic im expecting geelong to drop Dangerfield and Guthrie to improve their chances
Your posts are so much fun (and your obsession)
Richmond still living rent free i see
The Majestic
Brownlow Medallist
Not as confident as many others seem to be about a Collingwood win, but I am tipping the Pies between 7-20 points.
Pies $1.45
Tigers $2.75
Glad I am not a sheep and not run with the masses
You thought Crows should be favourites too, yeah?
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