- Apr 18, 2005
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- Melbourne
Pies by 46.
Just too good this year.
Just too good this year.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Autopsy AFL 2023 Round 3 - Pies v Tigers Fri March 31st 7:50pm AEDT (MCG)
- Thread starter Wosh
- Start date
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It's foolish to write off the Tigers against anyone. They are a great club with a team of proud premiership players, and they still have enough talent, experience and excitement in the group to trouble any side. It depends on their outs this week as to how good they can be but regardless I expect them to push us all the way and I don't expect the final margin to be excessive.
The Pies should still get this one done by a few goals because our list is healthier and in form comparatively, but it will be a fight all the way. Tigers are still tigers and we do have a problem with Lynch to deal with, he always gets off the chain.
The Pies should still get this one done by a few goals because our list is healthier and in form comparatively, but it will be a fight all the way. Tigers are still tigers and we do have a problem with Lynch to deal with, he always gets off the chain.
Game will be over at 3qtr time and the the fourth qtr will be a 10 goal junk time spectacular.
Pies by enough to turn the tv off at 3qtr time
Pies by enough to turn the tv off at 3qtr time
What would the figure look like if you only had Collingwood in that figure? We have had some recent long winning streaks against Essendon and Carlton.
4 of the last 11/12? While that figure still looks good for Richmond, it doesn't look anywhere near as bad if Essendon or Carlton were in the figure.
Collingwood have lost 26 of their last 90 games against Carlton, Richmond and Essendon combined, though that's pretty consistent with our all-time ratio against those clubs so nothing special, relatively speaking...
- Sep 14, 2005
- 18,419
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What a strange pull.
Pies are 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from the last 6 against the Tigers.
evo
Let's hit the f*ken road!
Looking grim for the Tiges
Only positive is literally everyone thinks the Pies will pump us.
Why separate them? They are the 3 peloton clubs trying to chase Victoria's biggest club, Richmond, who has strung together 6 years over 100k members, and has an unbroken run of 7 consecutive MCG finals(not including Grand Finals) with attendances above 90,000. None of the peloton clubs have had a run above 2 of those in the AFL era. If you try to separate the peloton clubs as you are suggesting you will introduce all sorts of variance based on non-repeatable factors. When Richmond plays a peloton club, they lose 5 of their last 40 matches. Collingwood is a peloton club. That is all you need to know.
When you want to ascertain the correct probability for something occurring Frank, you need to source the right sample to construct the equation.
Plus this is clearly Collingwood's Grand Final, and we know their record in Grand Finals, winning one from their last 14. So really we could say that 7 to 1 is not generous enough odds, and they should in reality be 13 to 1. But I like to be mean with my odds.
Mark it down as a likely loss, not gonna win them all and we don't need to. No shame in losing to the Pies who are arguably the best side in it at this point in time.
Get Dusty and Hopper right for next week and hope to bounce back against the Dogs.
Could be 10 points from 4 rounds, 2-1-1 on the ledger, nothing wrong with that at this point.
- Sep 14, 2005
- 18,419
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smasha
It's Time!
I’d love to see the free kick count in those games.
Rustin Cohle
Flat Circle
Probably nowhere near high as your tear count.
122 Collingwood v 86 Richmond.
5-1 Collingwood in the free kick count, with Richmond's sole surplus being +1 in the shortened 2020 fixture, that had it been a full game that is surely reversed. All of this is to absolutely nobody's surprise.
But that is a mere +6 free kicks per game on average for the arch free kick scabs. This year they are running at +10 per match average as the AFL does all in its power to create false excitement around them, and we are of course running at -6 per match on average. So we can probably look forward to a -16 free kick jacksie annihilation from the scumpires.
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- Mar 28, 2023
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Why separate them? They are the 3 peloton clubs trying to chase Victoria's biggest club, Richmond, who has strung together 6 years over 100k members, and has an unbroken run of 7 consecutive MCG finals(not including Grand Finals) with attendances above 90,000. None of the peloton clubs have had a run above 2 of those in the AFL era. If you try to separate the peloton clubs as you are suggesting you will introduce all sorts of variance based on non-repeatable factors. When Richmond plays a peloton club, they lose 5 of their last 40 matches. Collingwood is a peloton club. That is all you need to know.
When you want to ascertain the correct probability for something occurring Frank, you need to source the right sample to construct the equation.
Plus this is clearly Collingwood's Grand Final, and we know their record in Grand Finals, winning one from their last 14. So really we could say that 7 to 1 is not generous enough odds, and they should in reality be 13 to 1. But I like to be mean with my odds.
Collingwood winning one GF from their last 14 GF's..? 1990 & 2010 were Pie premierships. GF appearances in 1990, 2002, 2003, 2010 (x 2 including draw), 2011, 2018.Why separate them? They are the 3 peloton clubs trying to chase Victoria's biggest club, Richmond, who has strung together 6 years over 100k members, and has an unbroken run of 7 consecutive MCG finals(not including Grand Finals) with attendances above 90,000. None of the peloton clubs have had a run above 2 of those in the AFL era. If you try to separate the peloton clubs as you are suggesting you will introduce all sorts of variance based on non-repeatable factors. When Richmond plays a peloton club, they lose 5 of their last 40 matches. Collingwood is a peloton club. That is all you need to know.
When you want to ascertain the correct probability for something occurring Frank, you need to source the right sample to construct the equation.
Plus this is clearly Collingwood's Grand Final, and we know their record in Grand Finals, winning one from their last 14. So really we could say that 7 to 1 is not generous enough odds, and they should in reality be 13 to 1. But I like to be mean with my odds.
You will find EM, that from your last 14 actual Grand Finals, you have won only one of those. Nobody was talking about mulligan matches, they are not Grand Finals.
- Mar 28, 2023
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Lol, so you don't count the draw win?
Lol, so you don't count the draw win?
When I am counting up Grand Final wins I look at all the Grand Finals and count how many the team has won. Radical I know, but that is my controversial method.
- Mar 28, 2023
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- Collingwood
Yes and Pies won 1990 & 2010. That's 2 by my calculations. 6 (7 including draw) past GF appearances for 2 premierships.When I am counting up Grand Final wins I look at all the Grand Finals and count how many the team has won. Radical I know, but that is my controversial method.
- Sep 14, 2005
- 18,419
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I’m sure that had nothing to do with the way Richmond plays their footy. How many weeks did Broad get…?
Who mentioned Premierships? I wrote this is clearly Collingwood's Grand Final and we know their record in Grand Finals. For the record:
Last 14 Grand Finals Collingwood 1 win
same period....
Richmond 10 Grand Finals, 8 wins.
We win 80%. You win 7%. We are more that 11 times better than you at winning Grand Finals. You will find in life EM that it is important to be nice. But jeez it is nice to be important.
The Pies are in good form and they'll want to win for Fly against his old side so pretty sure they will be up and about
I'm happy with our form, the injuries are a concern, of course , but building on concern is some of our young guys that would have been natural replacements , Cumberland and Ralph-smith are down on form and another , Sonsie , had an interrupted preseason and did ok in the VFL
and another that had a good presason in Dow but was a bit flat in the VFL and we played what could be a weak VFL side in the Northern Bullants
Later in the year I'd be bullish about the Tigers matching and beating the Pies , but timing is everything and our ducks aren't lining up ATM
Things could click on the night but I think we are a bit exposed with inexperience of Young and Ryan and players coming in might be low on form/confidence
Pride is on the line for both coaching groups and both will want to out witt the other
Pies by 20+ in what could be a good watch for long periods
I'm happy with our form, the injuries are a concern, of course , but building on concern is some of our young guys that would have been natural replacements , Cumberland and Ralph-smith are down on form and another , Sonsie , had an interrupted preseason and did ok in the VFL
and another that had a good presason in Dow but was a bit flat in the VFL and we played what could be a weak VFL side in the Northern Bullants
Later in the year I'd be bullish about the Tigers matching and beating the Pies , but timing is everything and our ducks aren't lining up ATM
Things could click on the night but I think we are a bit exposed with inexperience of Young and Ryan and players coming in might be low on form/confidence
Pride is on the line for both coaching groups and both will want to out witt the other
Pies by 20+ in what could be a good watch for long periods
I wouldn't.
They smashed you in 2018 when Richmond were at their very best so now the tables have turned and it is Collingwood who are at the peak of their powers, why would Richmond have a better opportunity at knocking them off?
If anything, this match will be closer than anticipated and later in the year Collingwood will really put the foot down to win by 50+
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