Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[hk89]

Going back 40 years. An individual is not a team.

Fans from other clubs understand the Hawk posters arguments, but since they is terribly optimistic it is worth reiterating what matters. Wins.

Never thought I'd see the mighty Hawks fans reduced to cherry picking for stats and pretending to be happy about losing.

Never thought I'd see a Geelong fan misinterpreting the facts to put shit on Hawthorn...hang on..

Thinking Geelong fans are simple minded dickheads because they think getting rid of three players in the only area of the ground we've improved in is a sure sign of tanking isn't being happy about losing, it is just confirming what most Hawthorn fans have always known.

 

[Saint]

Never thought I'd see a Geelong fan misinterpreting the facts to put s**t on Hawthorn...hang on..

Thinking Geelong fans are simple minded dickheads because they think getting rid of three players in the only area of the ground we've improved in is a sure sign of tanking isn't being happy about losing, it is just confirming what most Hawthorn fans have always known.

I think that Hawks fans might be missing that the area of the ground they're being butchered in is on transition through the middle. Teams are waltzing it from one end to the other and the Hawks are finding it difficult to do the same.

(based on the total of about 2-3 full games across all their games that I've watched)

I think their midfield is overly focused on stoppages (where they're better than breaking even up to this week) and the rest of their midfield game is ordinary at best.

What's being built is a serviceable midfield, not a good one.

 

[Back Pocket Rocket]

This thread. What a time to be alive Bringing together footy's biggest and most objective brains in one place

 

[hk89]

I think that Hawks fans might be missing that the area of the ground they're being butchered in is on transition through the middle. Teams are waltzing it from one end to the other and the Hawks are finding it difficult to do the same.

Waltzing it from one end of the ground to the other is easier when you have tall targets in your forward line, it is also easier for the opposition to do when they have tall targets in their forward line that are not matched up against overly tall defenders. Our mids need to be a lot more careful quickly moving the ball into our forward line when we don't have a lot of tall marking options. Mitchell and O'Meara were (at times unfairly) criticised for constantly hacking it into the forward line, and that was when we actually HAD decent talls to kick it to. We currently have better users of the ball in the midfield than we did last year, and we get some targets for them to kick to , we'll be able to capitalise more on that, and also go with faster ball movement, more confident that the we have a tall who can either mark it or bring it to ground.

(based on the total of about 2-3 full games across all their games that I've watched)

I think their midfield is overly focused on stoppages (where they're better than breaking even up to this week) and the rest of their midfield game is ordinary at best.

What's being built is a serviceable midfield, not a good one.

There are a bunch of kids in our midfield that are overachieving for their age. The current midfield will be a good deal better with 3 years more experience (and years in the gym) under their belt.

 

[hawkman]

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Could easily safeguard against your scenario; e.g. only teams with, say, 8 wins or less qualify for the #1 pick lottery - once the #1 is allocated the draft order would just revert to reverse-finishing order as usual.

So you would get teams on 7 or 8 wins tanking the last month

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

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Could easily safeguard against your scenario; e.g. only teams with, say, 8 wins or less qualify for the #1 pick lottery - once the #1 is allocated the draft order would just revert to reverse-finishing order as usual.

By the end of the year we might have at least 8 different Cursed Cat proposals as to why Hawthorn shouldn’t get Pick 1.

It’s a bit delicious.

 

[boncer34]

By the end of the year we might have at least 8 different Cursed Cat proposals as to why Hawthorn shouldn’t get Pick 1.

It’s a bit delicious.

Dunno where else to ask.

What's Hawthorn's plan when Tassie comes in? 11 in Melbourne?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Dunno where else to ask.

What's Hawthorn's plan when Tassie comes in? 11 in Melbourne?

I haven’t paid as much attention as others who hate our Tassie games, so I’m not sure.

 

[peetoo]

Dunno where else to ask.

What's Hawthorn's plan when Tassie comes in? 11 in Melbourne?

Hoping we do. Original reason to move was poor financial deal offered at marvel. Financial deals at marvel and indeed the mcg are so much better now.

 

[boncer34]

Hoping we do. Original reason to move was poor financial deal offered at marvel. Financial deals at marvel and indeed the mcg are so much better now.

I don't even know where you could sell games to anymore either.

 

[PieLebo87]

Are they tanking? Yes. Did the club trade out experienced players to expedite the process? Yes. Are the players losing on purpose? No. Should they be punished? No. Next.

 

[The 747]

Never thought I'd see a Geelong fan misinterpreting the facts to put s**t on Hawthorn...hang on..

Thinking Geelong fans are simple minded dickheads because they think getting rid of three players in the only area of the ground we've improved in is a sure sign of tanking isn't being happy about losing, it is just confirming what most Hawthorn fans have always known.

I see you are resorting to personal attacks now. Keep that up and there will be no more discussion mate.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I don't even know where you could sell games to anymore either.

Plenty of options IMO. We have a thread about this on our board. However, there's every chance we just move them all back to Melbourne.

 

[peetoo]

Plenty of options IMO. We have a thread about this on our board. However, there's every chance we just move them all back to Melbourne.

There are options but they don’t stack up IMO. Financial deals better in Melbourne than they were, AFL with gather round seems to be gating into the action anyway. This year we have as many home games as port or Adelaide, who get extra games at home

We’ll still feature heavily in the Tassie roster too, no doubt

 

[hk89]

I see you are resorting to personal attacks now. Keep that up and there will be no more discussion mate.

Apologies, I was over the top. It is somewhat frustrating to hear the same illogical argument "you must have been tanking when getting rid of players in a part of the ground you are now improved in, because you've won less games" over and over. If you can't accept we may have gone backwards for reasons other than axing the 3 mids, then further discussion is probably pointless anyway.

 

[Vindicater]

Eh
Except when we challenge you your ‘predictions’ become ‘hypotheticals’?

Nice that you care enough to comment on an irrelevant club

Aren't all predictions hypothetical?

 

[The 747]

Apologies, I was over the top. It is somewhat frustrating to hear the same illogical argument "you must have been tanking when getting rid of players in a part of the ground you are now improved in, because you've won less games" over and over. If you can't accept we may have gone backwards for reasons other than axing the 3 mids, then further discussion is probably pointless anyway.

No worries mate.

So perhaps I can phrase this a better way. If you look at this simply, and remember most footy fans and 'analysts' do, side goes backwards, side voluntarily got rid of 3 AFL players last year, side does not seem to be doing much in terms of defensive structure = speculation about what the coach is doing.

Then if one gets less simple and looks at the stats for the year, your mates in this thread are up in the cherry picker looking at centre clearances but Hawthorn are actually around the middle of the clubs on most stats. But are coming dead last.

The four stats they are not so good in are inside 50s, contested possessions, 1% ers and contested marks. Three of those look like predominantly midfield stats to me. Unless these stats are wrong AFL Tables - 2023 Team Stats & Season Highs

 

[Gavin Excell]

All the gloom and doom of Hawks worst midfield ever, getting flogged week after week hasn't really transpired

 

[hk89]

No worries mate.

So perhaps I can phrase this a better way. If you look at this simply, and remember most footy fans and 'analysts' do, side goes backwards, side voluntarily got rid of 3 AFL players last year, side does not seem to be doing much in terms of defensive structure = speculation about what the coach is doing.

Then if one gets less simple and looks at the stats for the year, your mates in this thread are up in the cherry picker looking at centre clearances but Hawthorn are actually around the middle of the clubs on most stats. But are coming dead last.

The four stats they are not so good in are inside 50s, contested possessions, 1% ers and contested marks. Three of those look like predominantly midfield stats to me. Unless these stats are wrong AFL Tables - 2023 Team Stats & Season Highs

Yes, I was wondering why those arguing about tanking hadn't mentioned our inside 50 stats, which are indeed not good. At the moment I think that is partly due to the forward line though. Our old midfield did a lot more throw it on the boot inside 50s, which was frustrating to watch, but made a bit more sense when we had Lewis and Gunston in the forward line. When you're fielding a smaller forward line, you just can't do that. We're therefore quite a bit more careful pulling the trigger on a kick inside 50 at the moment. That's partly how we manage to have very decent clearance numbers, but fail to convert them to decent inside 50 numbers. If we don't pick up our inside 50s when we get a (hopefully in form) Lewis back in the side, then we can talk about different reasons why our inside 50s might still be sucking.

Your analysis of our contested possessions are based on raw numbers. A better metric is differential because it factors out different game styles by both your team and the opponents which might produce higher total possession (and contested possession) counts. We are 11th on that metric, compared to 15th last year, so a fairly decent improvement. Geelong are second last on total contested possession count btw, but jump to 10th when looking at differential. Do you think Geelong is tanking because they dropped from 10th last year to second last this year in raw average contested possession count?

Disposal efficiency is also up from 16th to 12th this year, which I'd say is predominately a midfield metric, because midfielders get the bulk of the total possession count.

I'd also argue that contested possessions and 1%er metrics are not necessarily a great barometer for a midfield anyway. Demons and Saints both bottom 4 for 1% metric metric based on opposition differential, and Cats second bottom based on raw averages. I think both those metrics can be more about game style and setup. Hawthorn 3-peat teams were never higher than 5th for contested ball differential in flag years, and in 2015 were 9th. Lower contested possession stats can just mean you have better users of the ball that are able to successfully play a less contested game plan. Our increased DE (and what we see on the ground) suggests this may indeed be part of what the coach is trying to do. In any case, when looking at differential we HAVE improved.

I'm not sure how you say contested marks are mostly a midfield stat. I'd say they are mostly a KP/Resting ruck stat, and if we suck at that, I think it is a reflection of our lack of in form (or existant at all) tall KP players. Looking at an in form team like Magpies, their top 4 contested mark players are Darcy Cameron, Ash Johnson, Mason Cox and Darcy Moore. Do you mean the midfield is responsible for kicking it to them so it is a midfield stat? If so who are the tall forwards Hawthorn mids should be kicking it to in order to rack up those stats? Our rucks have been decent at stoppages, but horrible around the ground, so we've got very little from them across most of the games so far this year. In fact I'd say our contested mark counts are proof of exactly my point. We've not gone backwards because we ditched 3 low kicking efficiency mids. We've gone backwards because they have nobody to kick it to who can take a contested mark (which is pretty clearly IMO a tall KP metric).

 

[The 747]

Yes, I was wondering why those arguing about tanking hadn't mentioned our inside 50 stats, which are indeed not good. At the moment I think that is partly due to the forward line though. Our old midfield did a lot more throw it on the boot inside 50s, which was frustrating to watch, but made a bit more sense when we had Lewis and Gunston in the forward line. When you're fielding a smaller forward line, you just can't do that. We're therefore quite a bit more careful pulling the trigger on a kick inside 50 at the moment. That's partly how we manage to have very decent clearance numbers, but fail to convert them to decent inside 50 numbers. If we don't pick up our inside 50s when we get a (hopefully in form) Lewis back in the side, then we can talk about different reasons why our inside 50s might still be sucking.

Your analysis of our contested possessions are based on raw numbers. A better metric is differential because it factors out different game styles by both your team and the opponents which might produce higher total possession (and contested possession) counts. We are 11th on that metric, compared to 15th last year, so a fairly decent improvement. Geelong are second last on total contested possession count btw, but jump to 10th when looking at differential. Do you think Geelong is tanking because they dropped from 10th last year to second last this year in raw average contested possession count?

Disposal efficiency is also up from 16th to 12th this year, which I'd say is predominately a midfield metric, because midfielders get the bulk of the total possession count.

I'd also argue that contested possessions and 1%er metrics are not necessarily a great barometer for a midfield anyway. Demons and Saints both bottom 4 for 1% metric metric based on opposition differential, and Cats second bottom based on raw averages. I think both those metrics can be more about game style and setup. Hawthorn 3-peat teams were never higher than 5th for contested ball differential in flag years, and in 2015 were 9th. Lower contested possession stats can just mean you have better users of the ball that are able to successfully play a less contested game plan. Our increased DE (and what we see on the ground) suggests this may indeed be part of what the coach is trying to do. In any case, when looking at differential we HAVE improved.

I'm not sure how you say contested marks are mostly a midfield stat. I'd say they are mostly a KP/Resting ruck stat, and if we suck at that, I think it is a reflection of our lack of in form (or existant at all) tall KP players. Looking at an in form team like Magpies, their top 4 contested mark players are Darcy Cameron, Ash Johnson, Mason Cox and Darcy Moore. Do you mean the midfield is responsible for kicking it to them so it is a midfield stat? If so who are the tall forwards Hawthorn mids should be kicking it to in order to rack up those stats? Our rucks have been decent at stoppages, but horrible around the ground, so we've got very little from them across most of the games so far this year. In fact I'd say our contested mark counts are proof of exactly my point. We've not gone backwards because we ditched 3 low kicking efficiency mids. We've gone backwards because they have nobody to kick it to who can take a contested mark (which is pretty clearly IMO a tall KP metric).

On Geelong, the midfield is not our strength and hasn't been for a decade or so, so that is not a surprising stat for me.

Yes perhaps re: contested possession but if you have better users of the ball why is it not going inside 50? Where are they putting the ball? System....

Contested marks are not a midfield stat, I said three of the four were.

 

[hk89]

On Geelong, the midfield is not our strength and hasn't been for a decade or so, so that is not a surprising stat for me.

Yes perhaps re: contested possession but if you have better users of the ball why is it not going inside 50? Where are they putting the ball? System....

Yes, a system with a small forward line means you have to be more selective when you kick it inside 50. This gives the opposition more time to shut your ball carrier down and avoid an inside 50. I thought I mentioned this in my last post.

Contested marks are not a midfield stat, I said three of the four were.

Sorry, I misread. It does provide a better idea of why we might be going backwards IMO, given we've improved quite a bit in both contested possession differential and clearance differential, our inability to have talls who can take contested marks at both ends of the ground is a pretty good indicator of why we can't kick winning scores, and are conceding some big scores. As mentioned, may also indicate why we are not throwing it on the boot for a quick inside 50 from centre clearances (which we more commonly did last year).

 

[The 747]

Yes, a system with a small forward line means you have to be more selective when you kick it inside 50. This gives the opposition more time to shut your ball carrier down and avoid an inside 50. I thought I mentioned this in my last post.

Perhaps but I don't really see it that way, I see it as a coaching issue. Noting there are two opposing perspectives here

 

[Blackhawk42]

Why would a club planning to tank go and trade out their future second and third round draft picks? Has this been discussed yet?

No list manager in modern footy is daft enough to believe that one 18 year old kid is worth 12 months of on-field pain. That's what the tanking accusers are arguing.

 

[hawkman]

Why would a club planning to tank go and trade out their future second and third round draft picks? Has this been discussed yet?

No list manager in modern footy is daft enough to believe that one 18 year old kid is worth 12 months of on-field pain. That's what the tanking accusers are arguing.

Logic like that doesn't have a place in a thread like this

 

[Jimmy95]

New to this thread so haven't read all the previous comments but I'm sure that the universal opinion is they are tanking and who could blame them with Tasmania coming into the comp. Last thing a club wants to be doing is rebuilding when Tasmania is receiving massive draft concessions.

Be negligent of Hawthorn not to go hard at the best youth for the next 2 or 3 years.