Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[sr36]

Would be a boring as a fan if you can't be optimistic about your team in preseason

I think I worded that in a way that was misunderstood. See previous post.

 

[Mr Meow]

Absolutely. We could be one of the clubs where everything goes wrong. But the most common form of "everything going wrong" is infinite injuries. And that generally occurs when the majority of good players are over 30. Which is precisely what happened this year.

Geelong 2022 and Collingwood 2023 had mature lists and good injury runs, which goes against that theory. Carlton, Richmond, Essendon and Sydney (and Geelong, but they had over 30s also) had plenty of injuries in their 18-28 year old group this season.

 

[sr36]

Geelong 2022 and Collingwood 2023 had mature lists and good injury runs, which goes against that theory. Carlton, Richmond, Essendon and Sydney (and Geelong, but they had over 30s also) had plenty of injuries in their 18-28 year old group this season.

Yeah. Young players get more injuries I think.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Actually, they all talk about process and not outcome. But yes they don't set a ceiling in terms of outcome.

My comment wasn't meant to be an insult.

Some have an extremely optimistic view, which is great as it tends to help with resilience and overcoming setbacks. It's what you want in your kids. Whereas others create extremely difficult to achieve goals and get really down when they're not achieved. One's a positive approach the other isn't, but they both look really similar until outcomes aren't achieved.

Our footy dept and our coach have continually stated that there are no speed limits on where we want to get to.
They intend for all the players to be in a hurry to get there and to push each other(and they’ve noted this is already observable and a key reason for our 2023 formline).

They might not ever mutter the F word publicly, but the entire club have a drive to get there as quickly as they can, and so they should, because as plenty of teams before them have shown it’s entirely achievable to jump from the bottom 4 to the top 8-10 teams in one season.

 

[peetoo]

Correct. We still rely far too heavily on Sicily and Lewis & that’s not changing next season. It’s why the club went all in on Ben McKay & gave Mabior Chol a 4 year deal with an option for a 5th. We simply have no depth in those positions.

Since being drafted in 2017, mitch Lewis has never played more than 15 games in a season. The last 4 seasons since becoming our best key forward, he’s averaged 13 games a season…that’s not just bad luck. He’s injury prone.

James Sicily also seems to find ways to miss games through both suspension (unlucky a lot of time) and injury.

Other than Mitch Lewis who missed the first 7 games (we went 1-6) last season, we had arguably the best injury list in the league. Peter Burge, who will poached from the Tigers has been brilliant.

We won’t be moving up the ladder until 2025 once we’re able to bring in quality free agents. I have no doubt the club will already have a long list of names they will be targeting at the end of 2024 and 2025. We can still be an attractive proposition for potential recruits even if we finish bottom 5 again which is likely to happen..Sam Mitchell looks to be a brilliant coach that can hopefully sell his vision.

Injury issues apply to older lists surely? Sicily wasn’t injured it was bulldust . By all means say clubs will be subject to injury luck, but statistically that luck will apply more to older lists….like a few years ago when it was a legit concern at the hawks then older list

 

[Back One Out]

Amazing how we have a 200 page thread on Hawthorn's supposed "tanking", but nobody seems to say much about North and West Coast tanking these past few years.

It's unreal.

I blame campaigners in the media like Damian Barrett who misdirect people's attention like a bad magician doing a card trick.
They go on and on about the Hawks tanking and hope nobody notices how North & Eagles basically stopped trying after 2021

 

[sr36]

Injury issues apply to older lists surely? Sicily wasn’t injured it was bulldust . By all means say clubs will be subject to injury luck, but statistically that luck will apply more to older lists….like a few years ago when it was a legit concern at the hawks then older list

It'd be interesting to see some stats, as I think young players get injured more.

 

[sr36]

Amazing how we have a 200 page thread on Hawthorn's supposed "tanking", but nobody seems to say much about North and West Coast tanking these past few years.

It's unreal.

I blame campaigners in the media like Damian Barrett who misdirect people's attention like a bad magician doing a card trick.
They go on and on about the Hawks tanking and hope nobody notices how North & Eagles basically stopped trying after 2021

I don't think any of them tank within the season. They try to win. If tanking occurs it's through list management. Nth and Hawthorn both cleared out senior players whilst they were already going to be ordinary. I wouldn't call it tanking, but they weren't trying to be particularly competitive in terms of their list. WCE were at the end of a good era which spiralled downwards as they haven't been able to keep players fit.

 

[Yoda_]

Amazing how we have a 200 page thread on Hawthorn's supposed "tanking", but nobody seems to say much about North and West Coast tanking these past few years.

It's unreal.

I blame campaigners in the media like Damian Barrett who misdirect people's attention like a bad magician doing a card trick.
They go on and on about the Hawks tanking and hope nobody notices how North & Eagles basically stopped trying after 2021

You spelt Kane Cornes wrong

 

[Caligo]

It'd be interesting to see some stats, as I think young players get injured more.

Young players over 196cm maybe get hurt more, but surely under 196cm it is the 30+ guys who get soft tissues over and over. And that just increases every year after 30.

 

[Caligo]

You spelt Kane Cornes wrong

Cornes admitted he was wrong and a fool. Barrett just kept doubling down indefinitely. Which is ironic since his team actually has been tanking for years now.

 

[Caligo]

I don't think any of them tank within the season. They try to win. If tanking occurs it's through list management. Nth and Hawthorn both cleared out senior players whilst they were already going to be ordinary. I wouldn't call it tanking, but they weren't trying to be particularly competitive in terms of their list. WCE were at the end of a good era which spiralled downwards as they haven't been able to keep players fit.

What list management decision would have made Hawthorn better in 2023? They have wholeheartedly hunted every good free agent who came up and have only given up veterans when younger players were actively forcing their way into the team. We have even spent good draft picks trying to bring in talent.

We are not comparable to North Melbourne in any sense. They shoved players out the door when they had nobody to replace them, and never tried to replace injured talent they lost. Saying otherwise is tantamount to trolling.

 

[sr36]

Young players over 196cm maybe get hurt more, but surely under 196cm it is the 30+ guys who get soft tissues over and over. And that just increases every year after 30.

Don't know. At Collingwood, the vibe I get without looking at data is that the youngsters are injured more often than the veterans.

 

[sr36]

What list management decision would have made Hawthorn better in 2023? They have wholeheartedly hunted every good free agent who came up and have only given up veterans when younger players were actively forcing their way into the team. We have even spent good draft picks trying to bring in talent.

We are not comparable to North Melbourne in any sense. They shoved players out the door when they had nobody to replace them, and never tried to replace injured talent they lost. Saying otherwise is tantamount to trolling.

Keeping JoM, Mitchell, Gunston would have made you better.

 

[James Colorado]

It'd be interesting to see some stats, as I think young players get injured more.

I've got a feeling (no hard data to hand) that young players get more soft tissue injuries (muscles, tendons, and ligaments not fully developed), but older players get more structural (wear and tear on joints).

 

[Caligo]

Keeping JoM, Mitchell, Gunston would have made you better.

Gunston left and we couldn't stop him. Saying he was a list management decision is incredibly dishonest.

JOM was not better than any of our best 5 midfielders in 2023. He has no forward nous and wouldn't have offered anything there either. He would have made us worse.

Mitchell is the interesting one. I think he probably does make us better in isolation, but every time worpel and newcombe play without Mitchell, they miraculously do better. Whatever Mitchell was doing it wasn't helping them. I am comfortable saying that we were a better midfield without him (and literally all the data backs up that belief, starting with clearances).

You would have been better saying we could have traded in some forward talent. But we did try. They didn't come.

 

[James Colorado]

Cornes admitted he was wrong and a fool. Barrett just kept doubling down indefinitely. Which is ironic since his team actually has been tanking for years now.

Cornes actually knows what he's talking about, he's just decided to play the heel to carve his niche. I bet that off camera his assessments are a lot more measured.

 

[Caligo]

Don't know. At Collingwood, the vibe I get without looking at data is that the youngsters are injured more often than the veterans.

Yeah I am just working off vibe too. I don't know the numbers.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

You spelt Kane Cornes wrong

There's no greater supporter of Mitchell and the Hawthorn rebuild in the media than Cornes.

 

[Caligo]

There's no greater supporter of Mitchell and the Hawthorn rebuild in the media than Cornes.

Now. But at the start of the season he went at us pretty hard.

Got to respect him coming out and saying he was wrong though.

 

[sr36]

Gunston left and we couldn't stop him. Saying he was a list management decision is incredibly dishonest.

JOM was not better than any of our best 5 midfielders in 2023. He has no forward nous and wouldn't have offered anything there either. He would have made us worse.

Mitchell is the interesting one. I think he probably does make us better in isolation, but every time worpel and newcombe play without Mitchell, they miraculously do better. Whatever Mitchell was doing it wasn't helping them. I am comfortable saying that we were a better midfield without him (and literally all the data backs up that belief, starting with clearances).

You would have been better saying we could have traded in some forward talent. But we did try. They didn't come.

I watched Collingwood play with Daicos, Daicos, Mitchell, Pendlebury, Degoey, Adams, Crisp, Sidebottom, Lipinski - 8 mids. I have no doubt you would have been better with JOM and Mitchell in the team as well as your current mids.

 

[hawkman]

I watched Collingwood play with Daicos, Daicos, Mitchell, Pendlebury, Degoey, Adams, Crisp, Sidebottom, Lipinski - 8 mids. I have no doubt you would have been better with JOM and Mitchell in the team as well as your current mids.

Based on what happened in 2022 that is unlikely as Mitchell and JOM struggle to play anywhere else other than as mids. Worpel has never played well with Mitchell in the team.

 

[sr36]

Based on what happened in 2022 that is unlikely as Mitchell and JOM struggle to play anywhere else other than as mids. Worpel has never played well with Mitchell in the team.

Mitchell was fine at half forward pushing up in 2022. JOM could play a variety of roles. Hawks chose to move them on to give some younger kids with more scope for the future a chance - but they'd both still make your best 22. I'm not saying this as a criticism. But you would have been better in 2023 with those blokes in the squad.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Mitchell was fine at half forward pushing up in 2022. JOM could play a variety of roles. Hawks chose to move them on to give some younger kids with more scope for the future a chance - but they'd both still make your best 22. I'm not saying this as a criticism. But you would have been better in 2023 with those blokes in the squad.

When Mitchell played at Hawthorn he was a stat padding, one position player with no hurt factor, who had no trade value, and we had the 18th best midfield in the comp as everyone kept telling us(and we knew).

 

[hawkman]

When Mitchell played at Hawthorn he was a stat padding, one position player with no hurt factor, who had no trade value, and we had the 18th best midfield in the comp as everyone kept telling us(and we knew).

This is last few years. Prior to his leg break he was the difference between being the worst midfield and being very competitive in there