Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Caligo]

I watched Collingwood play with Daicos, Daicos, Mitchell, Pendlebury, Degoey, Adams, Crisp, Sidebottom, Lipinski - 8 mids. I have no doubt you would have been better with JOM and Mitchell in the team as well as your current mids.

Take a look at that list of mids. They are all really different.

Then take a look at ours, and see how JOM do not offer anything different, and actively make others around them worse.

In another post you said they are good at pushing forward. This isn't true, as you should know. How did Tom go pushing forward for you? (And jom was worse if you actually watched freo, which based on what you have said I am guessing not.)

We have so many problems, but jom and Tom don't fix any of them. A KPD or a KPF on the other hand...

 

[James Colorado]

This is last few years. Prior to his leg break he was the difference between being the worst midfield and being very competitive in there

Strapping Young Lad is being ironic in his post. But Titch before the leg break was utterly elite; afterwards he was still a very good player, but had to rely more and more on a bit of nous to maintain it (common with aging players).

 

[Blackhawk42]

Keeping JoM, Mitchell, Gunston would have made you better.

Only got 1 extra win with them the previous year.

Mitchell and O'Meara couldn't produce what Newcombe and Day did this year. We would have regressed significantly if we'd retained them.

Can't include Gunston because he decided to leave.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Strapping Young Lad is being ironic in his post. But Titch before the leg break was utterly elite; afterwards he was still a very good player, but had to rely more and more on a bit of nous to maintain it (common with aging players).

Yeah, we were told ad nauseam that Tom was no good and that our midfield was the worst in the comp, and there was no way forward because he was worth nothing on the trade table.

 

[sr36]

Take a look at that list of mids. They are all really different.

Then take a look at ours, and see how JOM do not offer anything different, and actively make others around them worse.

In another post you said they are good at pushing forward. This isn't true, as you should know. How did Tom go pushing forward for you? (And jom was worse if you actually watched freo, which based on what you have said I am guessing not.)

We have so many problems, but jom and Tom don't fix any of them. A KPD or a KPF on the other hand...

I said starting forward and pushing up into the midfield. Not pushing forward from the midfield - that's for Jordy, Dusty types. Teams don't really play 6 6 6. That's just starting position. Most teams have one forward and defender pushing up into the midfield. So to go with the "starting mids" there's really 7 of them if you also include wings - plus bench rotation.

 

[sr36]

Only got 1 extra win with them the previous year.

Percentage gives a more accurate reflection. A good finish masked how bad you were for much of the year

You were a better team in 2022, without Day and Nash having made a huge leap and Worpel having a bad year. Sicily appearing mortal.

To suggest that you wouldn't have been better with Mitchell and JoM is silly

 

[smish]

Now. But at the start of the season he went at us pretty hard.

Got to respect him coming out and saying he was wrong though.

Cornes, to be fair, makes some bold takes but is quite often right with them. Got to respect him for it.

Years ago we were all laughing at him when he said Rozee > Walsh. Look how that turned out.

 

[Caligo]

Cornes, to be fair, makes some bold takes but is quite often right with them. Got to respect him for it.

Years ago we were all laughing at him when he said Rozee > Walsh. Look how that turned out.

Yep. I feel like cornes intentionally plays the heel but I don't actually mind his analysis. Even when I don't agree it always makes me think.

 

[hawkman]

Percentage gives a more accurate reflection. A good finish masked how bad you were for much of the year

You were a better team in 2022, without Day and Nash having made a huge leap and Worpel having a bad year. Sicily appearing mortal.

To suggest that you wouldn't have been better with Mitchell and JoM is silly

We were sitting at 4-11 in both years. In 2022 late wins against bottom 6 teams with Gunston vital in a couple of them was probably more a mask than 2023. The percentage for 2023 was killed by a horrible first 4 weeks, from round 5 it was a more respectable 87%
Sicily had a better year in 2022 than this year

 

[naysayer]

I watched Collingwood play with Daicos, Daicos, Mitchell, Pendlebury, Degoey, Adams, Crisp, Sidebottom, Lipinski - 8 mids. I have no doubt you would have been better with JOM and Mitchell in the team as well as your current mids.

You're wrong, and as a Collingwood fan, you should know why better than most. Losing O'Meara and Mitchell sparked a fundamental attitude shift in the playing group. It put a full stop on both Clarko's game plan and list strategy and it transformed our young players into leaders.

We couldn't have beaten top teams without that fresh energy and total commitment to the game plan, and that's without mentioning Day, Worpel, Newcombe and Nash's improvement.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Percentage gives a more accurate reflection. A good finish masked how bad you were for much of the year

You were a better team in 2022, without Day and Nash having made a huge leap and Worpel having a bad year. Sicily appearing mortal.

To suggest that you wouldn't have been better with Mitchell and JoM is silly

O'Meara never had a season at Hawthorn as good as Newcombe's this year.

Worpel's 2023 season was at the very least equal with Tom Mitchell's at Collingwood.

Will Day was given the chance to be a midfielder with those two players gone (a point raised by Sam Mitchell himself pre-season) and beat both of the aforementioned players in our best and fairest.

I really don't understand how anybody can suggest we would have been a better team with Mitchell and O'Meara in it.

 

[Bradkli]

Getting rid of Mitchell and O'Meara was a brave decision but 100% the correct one. From 2020-2022, our midfield was deplorable. It was the worst in the competition over that period. Changes had to be made. Letting those players leave was not only about 2023 but about the next 3+ years. Sam Mitchell is building an elite midfield unit, that are all in a similar age bracket. He wants them to play together for as long as possible. We are still yet to see much of Cam Mackenzie, who we took with our first pick last season. He will be an elite AFL midfielder.

In 2023, we saw Jai Newcombe take his game to another level, Will Day become a quality AFL player and show he will become an elite AFL midfielder, James Worpel

5

James Worpel

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.2

5star

HB

11.3

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

5.1

5star

No current season stats available

D

15.6

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

9.4

5star

M

1.0

1star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.8

4star

have his best season and Connor Nash become arguably the most improved player in the competition. All of those things don't happen with O'meara and Mitchell in the team. We also comprehensively beat both grand finalists, with the above midfielders dominating. How often has the youngest team in the competition comprehensively beaten the eventual grand finalists? Wouldn't have happened often. Did we have some terrible performances? Absolutely. That's expected being the youngest team in the competition.

When the Hawks are back playing finals in 2026 and challenging for the flag in 2027 with one of the best midfield's in the AFL, there will be articles written about "Sam Mitchell's brave call at the end of 2022".. you can bookmark this.

 

[sr36]

You're wrong, and as a Collingwood fan, you should know why better than most. Losing O'Meara and Mitchell sparked a fundamental attitude shift in the playing group. It put a full stop on both Clarko's game plan and list strategy and it transformed our young players into leaders.

We couldn't have beaten top teams without that fresh energy and total commitment to the game plan, and that's without mentioning Day, Worpel, Newcombe and Nash's improvement.

I'm not saying it was a bad move.

I'm saying that when a team goes into a trade period with a shallow list with a shortage of senior player they have various options. St Kilda in that situation typically load up with senior players to try to be as competitive as possible. Hawthorn did the complete opposite and cleared out a couple of decent senior players.

Hawks knew they were going to go backwards and they did, being really uncompetitive in the first half of the year. However, a lot went right and it has the potential of having been a really good move for the future. But let's not pretend those moves were designed to maximise 2023 team performance - they weren't and they didn't. Hawks chose to go backwards in 2023, because they think it was the best chance of moving forward towards success in the future.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I'm not saying it was a bad move.

I'm saying that when a team goes into a trade period with a shallow list with a shortage of senior player they have various options. St Kilda in that situation typically load up with senior players to try to be as competitive as possible. Hawthorn did the complete opposite and cleared out a couple of decent senior players.

Hawks knew they were going to go backwards and they did, being really uncompetitive in the first half of the year. However, a lot went right and it has the potential of having been a really good move for the future. But let's not pretend those moves were designed to maximise 2023 team performance - they weren't and they didn't. Hawks chose to go backwards in 2023, because they think it was the best chance of moving forward towards success in the future.

You won't get too much of an argument on those points.

However, had we kept O'Meara and Mitchell I'm HIGHLY doubtful we would have won more than the 8 games from the previous season. The only thing that may have changed was the percentage
.

 

[naysayer]

But let's not pretend those moves were designed to maximise 2023 team performance - they weren't and they didn't. Hawks chose to go backwards in 2023, because they think it was the best chance of moving forward towards success in the future.

I know what you're trying to say but you're wrong. We got smashed in the middle every week when those two played for us. Our midfield improved out of sight this year. If you watched our games in the first half of the season you would've seen the reason for being uncompetitive and it wasn't the midfield. With no Gunston, no McEvoy, no Mitch Lewis, we simply had no key forward.

No doubt that list management made the decision to cut with the long-term future in mind, but I think they also knew that players like Worpel and Day were ready to pick up the slack, and although it was risky, it worked out.

 

[peetoo]

I've got a feeling (no hard data to hand) that young players get more soft tissue injuries (muscles, tendons, and ligaments not fully developed), but older players get more structural (wear and tear on joints).

Haha Gunston is back and people now lining up to pronounce him ‘cooked’. Never change BF

I was probably responding to a different post btw)

 

[peetoo]

Getting rid of Mitchell and O'Meara was a brave decision but 100% the correct one. From 2020-2022, our midfield was deplorable. It was the worst in the competition over that period. Changes had to be made. Letting those players leave was not only about 2023 but about the next 3+ years. Sam Mitchell is building an elite midfield unit, that are all in a similar age bracket. He wants them to play together for as long as possible. We are still yet to see much of Cam Mackenzie, who we took with our first pick last season. He will be an elite AFL midfielder.

In 2023, we saw Jai Newcombe take his game to another level, Will Day become a quality AFL player and show he will become an elite AFL midfielder, James Worpel have his best season and Connor Nash become arguably the most improved player in the competition. All of those things don't happen with O'meara and Mitchell in the team. We also comprehensively beat both grand finalists, with the above midfielders dominating. How often has the youngest team in the competition comprehensively beaten the eventual grand finalists? Wouldn't have happened often. Did we have some terrible performances? Absolutely. That's expected being the youngest team in the competition.

When the Hawks are back playing finals in 2026 and challenging for the flag in 2027 with one of the best midfield's in the AFL, there will be articles written about "Sam Mitchell's brave call at the end of 2022".. you can bookmark this.

And this poster is not known for over optimism, but a good commentator

 

[Caligo]

And this poster is not known for over optimism, but a good commentator

Take a look at some of his commentary around 2014. He was every bit as negative then too.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I know what you're trying to say but you're wrong. We got smashed in the middle every week when those two played for us. Our midfield improved out of sight this year. If you watched our games in the first half of the season you would've seen the reason for being uncompetitive and it wasn't the midfield. With no Gunston, no McEvoy, no Mitch Lewis, we simply had no key forward.

No doubt that list management made the decision to cut with the long-term future in mind, but I think they also knew that players like Worpel and Day were ready to pick up the slack, and although it was risky, it worked out.

Correct weight. With Gunston leaving for the Lions and McEvoy retiring we literally had the one injury take place in the preseason that we could not afford...Lewis.

In the first 6 rounds Fergus Greene at 186cm was playing the role of a lead up tall forward, as Koschitzke was basically useless in the role and subsequently got dropped to Box Hill.

Footy dept made the bold call of backing in Day, Newcombe, Worpel and Nash to step in and take over the midfield, and that decision despite the numerous claims of "Hawthorn won't win a game" over the summer, looked a great call by 8 rounds of the new season. Now the midfield is a clear strength of the list.

 

[sr36]

Hawks had a good year considering where the list was at. I say a good year as a lot went right in terms of player development. I'd be willing to bet that the match committee were delighted with progress and wouldn't change their actions. You got the upper ceilimg of what could have been hoped for from your midfield group. But team performance did regress under any measure you want to choose.

It was inevitable based on list management decisions as you willing took a performance hit to be better placed for the future. I can't believe anyone is disputing that.

Yes your midfield improved due to the excellent progress, but you lost two quality senior players and the flow on was other areas getting worse as their roles were replaced from within the team. No one is going to convince me that you wouldn't have performed better this year with Mitchell and JoM in the team. I don't understand why Hawks supporters are so convinced that those two couldn't have been rolled onto flanks and achieved more than your flankers did. Now I'm not saying that's what should have occured. I'm just saying that you would have been better in 2023, if they were still there. And I'm saying that was known when the decision was made.

 

[Caligo]

Hawks had a good year considering where the list was at. I say a good year as a lot went right in terms of player development. I'd be willing to bet that the match committee were delighted with progress and wouldn't change their actions. You got the upper ceilimg of what could have been hoped for from your midfield group. But team performance did regress under any measure you want to choose.

It was inevitable based on list management decisions as you willing took a performance hit to be better placed for the future. I can't believe anyone is disputing that.

Yes your midfield improved due to the excellent progress, but you lost two quality senior players and the flow on was other areas getting worse as their roles were replaced from within the team. No one is going to convince me that you wouldn't have performed better this year with Mitchell and JoM in the team. I don't understand why Hawks supporters are so convinced that those two couldn't have been rolled onto flanks and achieved more than your flankers did. Now I'm not saying that's what should have occured. I'm just saying that you would have been better in 2023, if they were still there. And I'm saying that was known when the decision was made.

There is so much that is unfounded assumption or outright wrong here that it isn't clear where to begin. Your general assumption seems to be that almost everything that possibly could have gone right for Hawthorn did and that it is fair to assume that even holding steady would be an immense achievement. I can only assume this is the result of not actually watching our games. What surprises me most though is that the one game of ours I know you did watch would certainly seem to imply literally everything you said was false though.

2023's overall performance wasn't our upper ceiling in 2023. The Collingwood game was. We just need to perform like that more regularly.

I can bury down into specifics (like your assumption that JOM would have been better than our HFFs) but you have shown a total unwillingness to actually even look at 2022 when that literally happened and it was proven he was ineffective in that role (and the only thing he and Mitchell actually did that was valuable was roll up into stoppages every now and then and get in the way of youngsters trying to improve). You literally have a whole season disproving everything you are saying and you are just sticking your fingers in your ears. There is absolutely no point.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Hawks had a good year considering where the list was at. I say a good year as a lot went right in terms of player development. I'd be willing to bet that the match committee were delighted with progress and wouldn't change their actions. You got the upper ceilimg of what could have been hoped for from your midfield group. But team performance did regress under any measure you want to choose.

It was inevitable based on list management decisions as you willing took a performance hit to be better placed for the future. I can't believe anyone is disputing that.

Yes your midfield improved due to the excellent progress, but you lost two quality senior players and the flow on was other areas getting worse as their roles were replaced from within the team. No one is going to convince me that you wouldn't have performed better this year with Mitchell and JoM in the team. I don't understand why Hawks supporters are so convinced that those two couldn't have been rolled onto flanks and achieved more than your flankers did. Now I'm not saying that's what should have occured. I'm just saying that you would have been better in 2023, if they were still there. And I'm saying that was known when the decision was made.

If Mitchell and O'Meara stayed and took up those flank roles with midfield rotations, the two players who likely don't get games are Connor MacDonald and Cam Mackenzie.

MacDonald in particular was probably the young player who flew under the radar the most for us this year.
Was recruited as a midfielder but has looked right at home as the second high half forward behind Dylan Moore.
Tracking along as a Zac Bailey type. In fact, here is their player comparison for the same age. Makes for very good reading for Hawks supporters.

Zac Bailey and Connor MacDonald AFL Stats Comparison

Zac Bailey and Connor MacDonald AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

We go backwards if he isn't getting regular games. Ditto Mackenzie, who had slow patches but looked a genuine future star in certain games.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

What we would we have done had JOM and Tom stayed? Well, 2022 is on the record.

 

[sr36]

There is so much that is unfounded assumption or outright wrong here that it isn't clear where to begin. Your general assumption seems to be that almost everything that possibly could have gone right for Hawthorn did and that it is fair to assume that even holding steady would be an immense achievement. I can only assume this is the result of not actually watching our games. What surprises me most though is that the one game of ours I know you did watch would certainly seem to imply literally everything you said was false though.

2023's overall performance wasn't our upper ceiling in 2023. The Collingwood game was. We just need to perform like that more regularly.

I can bury down into specifics (like your assumption that JOM would have been better than our HFFs) but you have shown a total unwillingness to actually even look at 2022 when that literally happened and it was proven he was ineffective in that role (and the only thing he and Mitchell actually did that was valuable was roll up into stoppages every now and then and get in the way of youngsters trying to improve). You literally have a whole season disproving everything you are saying and you are just sticking your fingers in your ears. There is absolutely no point.

Out of curiosity, how do you explain Hawthorn finishing lower on the ladder, winning less games, having a lot worse percentage (despite a 120 point win against a basket case). Whilst a couple of mids took a massive leap, another one rediscovered how to play footy and your captain was magnificent.

 

[hawkman]

Out of curiosity, how do you explain Hawthorn finishing lower on the ladder, winning less games, having a lot worse percentage (despite a 120 point win against a basket case). Whilst a couple of mids took a massive leap, another one rediscovered how to play footy and your captain was magnificent.

Gunston won 2 games in 2022 (1 of them while Lewis was out). The forward line was impotent without Lewis this year.
Sicily missed 4 this year when he missed 0 last year. He was also better in 22 than he was this year.

The other thing that people forget is that there were 6 or 7 rubbish teams in 2022, this year there were 3 including us