Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Bradkli]

Out of curiosity, how do you explain Hawthorn finishing lower on the ladder, winning less games, having a lot worse percentage (despite a 120 point win against a basket case). Whilst a couple of mids took a massive leap, another one rediscovered how to play footy and your captain was magnificent.

We could easily have won 10 games.. we lost 3 games we should have won but choked..next season we win at least 2 of the below if game script is similar:

Round 5- lost by 2 against GWS having led by 2 goals late in the last quarter

Round 6- lost by 3 against the Crows having led by 2 goals late in the last quarter

Mitch Lewis and Will Day, 2 of our 4 best players didn’t play.

Round 19- lost by 1 against the Tigers, having led by 5 goals in the last quarter.

Our 2023 was a much better season on-field than 2022 and much more enjoyable as a supporter..We beat Collingwood and Brisbane who made the gf…beat st kilda who were in the top 6 all season and beat the Bulldogs…went with the Demons for 3.5 quarters.

Give me that any day as the youngest side in the comp than winning one extra game with the likes of Mitchell, O’Meara & Shiels playing.

 

[peetoo]

Out of curiosity, how do you explain Hawthorn finishing lower on the ladder, winning less games, having a lot worse percentage (despite a 120 point win against a basket case). Whilst a couple of mids took a massive leap, another one rediscovered how to play footy and your captain was magnificent.

Yes fwd line efficiency covered up a lot in 2022. Mainly thanks to gunston


Easily the biggest loss

 

[Caligo]

Out of curiosity, how do you explain Hawthorn finishing lower on the ladder, winning less games, having a lot worse percentage (despite a 120 point win against a basket case). Whilst a couple of mids took a massive leap, another one rediscovered how to play footy and your captain was magnificent.

Lots of reasons, but our small forwards in particular had a really poor season. Dylan Moore was the posterchild. He had a dominant 2022 in all aspects of forward play (especially defensively) and in 2023 he really struggled. But our other small forwards who weren't named Bruest had similar difficulties.

Our small defenders who weren't named Hardwick didn't have great years either. CJ probably the best example of it (resulting in spending significant time in the VFL). Somehow Frost was actually even worse too. There were issues.

If I actually thought Mitchell or jom could play small forward or small defender or even hbf I would agree with you about the value of keeping them. It just isn't true tho

 

[Blackhawk42]

Lots of reasons, but our small forwards in particular had a really poor season. Dylan Moore was the posterchild. He had a dominant 2022 in all aspects of forward play (especially defensively) and in 2023 he really struggled. But our other small forwards who weren't named Bruest had similar difficulties.

Our small defenders who weren't named Hardwick didn't have great years either. CJ probably the best example of it (resulting in spending significant time in the VFL). Somehow Frost was actually even worse too. There were issues.

If I actually thought Mitchell or jom could play small forward or small defender or even hbf I would agree with you about the value of keeping them. It just isn't true tho

Moorey didn't struggle this season. His 2022 was just massive for a player in that position. Still pretty stunning he didn't get at least an All Australian squad nomination.

He still averaged over 20 touches a game and kicked 17 goals in 2023. Last year was similar with his ball winning ability but he kicked 26. He spent a solid 6 weeks playing as a midfielder in 2022 though.

 

[Caligo]

Moorey didn't struggle this season. His 2022 was just massive for a player in that position. Still pretty stunning he didn't get at least an All Australian squad nomination.

He still averaged over 20 touches a game and kicked 17 goals in 2023. Last year was similar with his ball winning ability but he kicked 26. He spent a solid 6 weeks playing as a midfielder in 2022 though.

He just felt so much more impact full last year. Felt like a genuine force that we seemed to lack in 2023.

 

[Foucault1989]

Who will finish higher in 2024? Richmond or Hawthorn

 

[Caligo]

Who will finish higher in 2024? Richmond or Hawthorn

I think Richmond, but that is on the assumption Lynch plays more games than Lewis. I am not at all confident either way though.

 

[Chadwiko]

Hawthorn bottom 4 in 2024.

 

[smish]

Hawthorn bottom 4 in 2024.

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

 

[Bradkli]

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

A few things from the above:

In 2023, We won 7 games and lost 3 by under a goal having thrown away leads in the dying minutes. We also beat both grand finalists.

West Coast are not ahead of us in the their rebuild. They are at least 2 if not 3 years behind us. They have only a handful of decent youngsters and just about no quality senior players other than Tim kelly and Jeremy McGovern who is always injured.

North Melbourne started their rebuild 2 to 3 years before us yet have won 2 of the last 3 wooden spoons. Even with the AFL gifting them first round draft picks and laughable compensation for Ben McKay it won’t help. Their lack of development is deplorable. They also have next to no quality senior players to help compliment all their young talent.

Hawthorn are playing finals and challenging for a flag before both.

Sam Frost had a poor season in 2023 and is borderline best 22. It’s why we went all in on Ben McKay. Had mcckay chose hawthorn, frost would be playing at box hill in 2024 and delisted at the end of next season when his contract ends.

Chad Wingard was injured for the majority of the season and played only a handful of decent games. He’s been an average player at best since coming to hawthorn.

5 of the top 6 in our best and fairest in 2023 are 25 and under. The top 2 are under 23.

 

[naysayer]

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

"You've got a lot of players approaching 30"

Proceeds to name the 6 players on our whole list over the age of 28.

Thanks for the chuckle. No doubt the club will nosedive without Sam Frost.

 

[sr36]

Lots of reasons, but our small forwards in particular had a really poor season. Dylan Moore was the posterchild. He had a dominant 2022 in all aspects of forward play (especially defensively) and in 2023 he really struggled. But our other small forwards who weren't named Bruest had similar difficulties.

Our small defenders who weren't named Hardwick didn't have great years either. CJ probably the best example of it (resulting in spending significant time in the VFL). Somehow Frost was actually even worse too. There were issues.

If I actually thought Mitchell or jom could play small forward or small defender or even hbf I would agree with you about the value of keeping them. It just isn't true tho

I thought Moore was really good from what I saw. Didn't he just play a bit higher up the ground? I like line breakers so think Jiath was a loss.

 

[Blackhawk42]

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

Am I still just half asleep or this is a post made BY a Hawthorn supporter? I'm so confused.

I'll ignore the factually incorrect stuff for the time being.

 

[sr36]

Am I still just half asleep or this is a post made BY a Hawthorn supporter? I'm so confused.

I'll ignore the factually incorrect stuff for the time being.

It is pretty bizarre. Concern that 6 blokes are 29.

 

[HeHateMe]

Sicily is a gun and 28 why couldn't he play good footy well into his 30's like say a Pendlebury has?

If we aren't in our window in 7 years time when sic is 35 like Pendles than something has gone wrong with the rebuild.

Wingard and frost were dropped at stages so they weren't solidly or comfortably best 22.

Replacing 3 or so players isn't any different to any team in any position on the ladder.

 

[peetoo]

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

Stats say there’s a lot less players approaching retirement than almost any other team especially eagles an nortlh
Didn’t bother reading past paragraph 2

 

[sr36]

Sicily is a gun and 28 why couldn't he play good footy well into his 30's like say a Pendlebury has?

If we aren't in our window in 7 years time when sic is 35 like Pendles than something has gone wrong with the rebuild.

Wingard and frost were dropped at stages so they weren't solidly or comfortably best 22.

Replacing 3 or so players isn't any different to any team in any position on the ladder.

Yeah I think Sicily will play for ages. Skills and game sense will continue to stack up well after there's some physical decline.

 

[naysayer]

Yeah I think Sicily will play for ages. Skills and game sense will continue to stack up well after there's some physical decline.

Absolutely, but you just never know how durable a player will be once they're over 30. I agree he's in that Breust and Pendlebury mould where he doesn't rely on his physical traits to impact the game, but not every player is as fortunate as those two with injuries.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Am I still just half asleep or this is a post made BY a Hawthorn supporter? I'm so confused.

I'll ignore the factually incorrect stuff for the time being.

I’m still confused by it.

 

[Foucault1989]

I’m still confused by it.

Having fun mate? Liking posts from 6 - 7 months ago.....

 

[Caligo]

Having fun mate? Liking posts from 6 - 7 months ago.....

Is that bad? If I happen to find a new thread I will like a post I like even if it is old.

 

[Xtreme]

Out of curiosity, how do you explain Hawthorn finishing lower on the ladder, winning less games, having a lot worse percentage (despite a 120 point win against a basket case). Whilst a couple of mids took a massive leap, another one rediscovered how to play footy and your captain was magnificent.

Easy Hawthorn almost fell to the dark side in the pursuit of Harley Reid!

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Having fun mate? Liking posts from 6 - 7 months ago.....

Yes, looking back at some posts I had bookmarked from earlier in the thread regarding our inevitable Wooden Spoon, I stumbled across one of yours.

 

[smish]

Am I still just half asleep or this is a post made BY a Hawthorn supporter? I'm so confused.

I'll ignore the factually incorrect stuff for the time being.

I’m still confused by it.

Haha, just reminiscing on some of old mates best:

Your playing list.

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Haha, just reminiscing on some of old mates best:

Oh yes, old mate had a mare there.