Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Howard Littlejohn]

WTF. I have never seen this level of blatant tanking acceptance by a club. Sam Mitchell outright said he wanted to tank and not meddle around in the middle. Their trade period.

Are the ******* AFL going to step in and do something? AFL need to go down hard on Hawks and strip them of picks

I've never seen another club purposely and blatantly tank. It's unfair they are doing that to obtain a generational player in Harley Reid

They are completely compromising the draft!!!

Look, I thoroughly despise Hawthorn more than anything else in sport, but they aren't "tanking".
They are doing a full rebuild, they aren't the first and won't be the last to try it. It rarely works. In the process no doubt there will be some experimenting with positions and roles, but if they are still trying to win its not tanking.

They won't get the spoon anyway. The only way we win a game next years if we host GWS or have another covid inspired match against non-AFL listed players. We should be better than 2022, Thomas hopefully fit body and mind, Cunnington back, and not trying to use Walker as a second key defender - but that may not translate into wins.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

Deciding to bottom out 7 years after a premiership is for sure an interesting strategy.

You’d know, you’ve bottomed out a couple of times since your last premiership.

 

[HairyO]

Look, I thoroughly despise Hawthorn more than anything else in sport, but they aren't "tanking".
They are doing a full rebuild, they aren't the first and won't be the last to try it. It rarely works. In the process no doubt there will be some experimenting with positions and roles, but if they are still trying to win its not tanking.

They won't get the spoon anyway. The only way we win a game next years if we host GWS or have another covid inspired match against non-AFL listed players. We should be better than 2022, Thomas hopefully fit body and mind, Cunnington back, and not trying to use Walker as a second key defender - but that may not translate into wins.

And Clarko will be happy to get a gun kid with pick 1.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

As a Melbourne fan I think we cut to deep removing experience and it was a bad choice.

 

[Burtman]

We won’t be great next year, and as much as I’d like to get Harley Reid into the team I just can’t see it happening. North just put together one of the all time worst seasons, and aren’t going to make up the ground to us. West coast are bereft of young talent and a lot of their stars are on the decline. Of the players we lost only 3 of them had any influence on our season last year, Mitchell, O’Meara and gunston.

 

[bergholt]

Tanking should be legal. Why is it a problem?

 

[Foucault1989]

Hawthorn won't be anywhere close to flag over the next decade, which will destroy their notoriously fair weather supporter base

Good call. We will be seeing 15,000 at the MCG for Sunday afternoon games against interstate teams. They are the biggest, fickle bandwagon fans.

This is why they are not in the big 4 with Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond and Carlton. Our fans always rock up.

 

[demondavey]

Think there's a difference between rebuilding and tanking.

Making list management decisions that preference the future over the now is merely a list management strategy. This is what Hawthorn appears to have done. Not without its risks either, can sometimes take 3-5 years to discover if your horde of draftees have what it takes, and if not then another rebuild beckons.

But tanking to me is making deliberate in game/pre-game decisions that undermine trying to win that weekend's match. So long as Hawthorn try and field sides close to their possible best, however weak that best may turn out to be. Then all okay by me.

Great post. Spot on.

Hawthorn have simply dumped a heap of veterans to pursue a youth policy and build their list to contend again by 25 onwards. Significantly more defined than St Kilda, Essendon for example. At least it’s transparent. Hawks will be bottom 4 next year and get a good pick, they may even be smart and split that for two first rounders.

 

[Foucault1989]

Hawthorn did the same thing two decades ago by trading out the likes of Chick, Rawlings, Graham, Hay and Thompson as they embraced the rebuild. Ironically, it was after Schwab had tried to push for a flag before getting sacked for Clarkson, similar to what Clarkson tried to do before getting sacked for Mitchell.

However, it was a lot easier to build a team from ground zero back then, as there were priority picks handed out for teams that won less than 5 games, and there were no academy or free agency compensation picks diluting the draft back then either.

It's clear Mitchell wants to build a team from the draft, like Clarkson did when he first started. Hawthorn don't build teams aimed at being competitive and making finals, they build teams aimed at winning premierships while having a high, but relatively short peak at the top.

Hawthorn winning 4 flags from 8 top 4 finishes in 10 finals series during the Clarkson era is the sort of peak they aim for. This is different to Geelong and Sydney, who aim for a longer, but more gradual and sustained peak at the top.

They struck gold last time with Mitchell, Buddy, Hodge, Lewis, Roughead and Rioli.

That's incredible drafting. What are the chances of drafting a generational crop of talent again like this in the space of a few years?

 

[demondavey]

Mitchell tried the fire sale last year and he’s on the money.
His problem will inevitably be weak board members who haven’t got the stones to go the full rebuild distance when the losses mount …

He has pretty much done the opposite of Clarkson, who fluffed around for too long. Hawks did the same thing around 04 when AC came on board.

 

[Foucault1989]

History tells us rebuilding coaches who are there at ground zero of the rebuild don't last more than a few years. With that midfield, they are going to endure some horror losses. How much will the Hawthorn board endure over the next 3 years?

They've cut too deep with little compensation coming back. They needed to start this a few years ago and done it slowly. Gunston one year for a first rounder, Mitchell the next for a first rounder...maximise their returns while they were still in contract (understanding Mitchell was still in contract but would have been worth more last year) and below 30.

 

[BruceTempany14]

WTF. I have never seen this level of blatant tanking acceptance by a club. Sam Mitchell outright said he wanted to tank and not meddle around in the middle. Their trade period.

Are the ******* AFL going to step in and do something? AFL need to go down hard on Hawks and strip them of picks

I've never seen another club purposely and blatantly tank. It's unfair they are doing that to obtain a generational player in Harley Reid

They are completely compromising the draft!!!

No chance . Can’t get the AFL to investigate the Geelong salary cap and historical dealings with Gold Coast . Move on , it’s just so corrupt.


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[BruceTempany14]

And so they should

Just fir being a crapola town .


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[Power Play]

They struck gold last time with Mitchell, Buddy, Hodge, Lewis, Roughead and Rioli.

That's incredible drafting. What are the chances of drafting a generational crop of talent again like this in the space of a few years?

Hawthorn benefited greatly from the old priority pick system, along with Fremantle being stupid enough to trade pick 1 in possibly the greatest draft of all time which everyone knew was going to be a superdraft.

With the old priority pick system gone, along with the draft order being diluted by academy bidding, father son bidding and free agency compensation picks, it's hard to see Hawthorn getting access to the same kind of draft capital that assisted them greatly in being able to rebuild their side so successfully at the start of the Clarkson era.

It's going to take a lot longer for them to build a side this time around, and their fans have to be patient and willing to accept this.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

And Clarko will be happy to get a gun kid with pick 1.

You reckon Clarko will be allowed to coach? Yes, the AFL investigation will be a whitewash, partly because the AFL's history of stacking "independent" inquiries means nobody will believe it even if completely exonerated. Either way, public pressure will very likely make both coaches' positions untenable.

 

[Foucault1989]

Hawthorn benefited greatly from the old priority pick system, along with Fremantle being stupid enough to trade pick 1 in possibly the greatest draft of all time which everyone knew was going to be a superdraft.

With the old priority pick system gone, along with the draft order being diluted by academy bidding, father son bidding and free agency compensation picks, it's hard to see Hawthorn getting access to the same kind of draft capital that assisted them greatly in being able to rebuild their side so successfully at the start of the Clarkson era.

It's going to take a lot longer for them to build a side this time around, and their fans have to be patient and willing to accept this.

All true and they will accept it for 2 years. Trust me though in that 3rd year when you are being belted by an interstate team in Tasmania with the young guns struggling in the midfield against seasoned midfields with stronger bodies and who can run harder and longer, patience wears thin.

I've seen many talented midfielder get broken from having to carry the load without senior bodies around.

 

[BruceTempany14]

We won’t be great next year, and as much as I’d like to get Harley Reid into the team I just can’t see it happening. North just put together one of the all time worst seasons, and aren’t going to make up the ground to us. West coast are bereft of young talent and a lot of their stars are on the decline. Of the players we lost only 3 of them had any influence on our season last year, Mitchell, O’Meara and gunston.

I don’t know about that . With the greatest of respect the Hawks are pretty ordinary, North will ( eventually) have a steady coach and one that actually has a game plan and is actually a developer of players .

Noble was right up there with Craig , Neeld, Teague and Primus as a bloke who seriously couldn’t coach at the highest level and completely confused his players . They were all destroyers of development. The North kids will improve this year , the Hawk kids I’m sorry ain’t much chop .


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[Strapping Young Lad]

Deciding to bottom out 7 years after a premiership is for sure an interesting strategy.

It’s almost as if the club had a change of direction with a new coach.

 

[Power Play]

All true and they will accept it for 2 years. Trust me though in that 3rd year when you are being belted by an interstate team in Tasmania with the young guns struggling in the midfield against seasoned midfields with stronger bodies and who can run harder and longer, patience wears thin.

I've seen many talented midfielder get broken from having to carry the load without senior bodies around.

It's already been 4 years since Hawthorn played finals, and last time they opted for the scorched Earth rebuild saw them miss finals for 5 years before making it back into the top 8.

This time, however, it'll likely be at least another 3 years before they're playing finals again, and there's no guarantees they'll build a premiership quality list again this time around.

For example, look at St Kilda, who rebuilt in the early 2000s while benefiting greatly from the old priority pick system, and were desperately unlucky not to win a premiership with the side they built.

St Kilda opted for a scorched Earth rebuild again after Lyon left, and the side they managed to build this time around is basically a failed team with the Saints needing to start another rebuild.

There's every chance Hawthorn end up building a list that's middle of the road quality at best like St Kilda's current list, and that's the risk you take when opting for a scorched Earth rebuild.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

We won’t be great next year, and as much as I’d like to get Harley Reid into the team I just can’t see it happening. North just put together one of the all time worst seasons, and aren’t going to make up the ground to us. West coast are bereft of young talent and a lot of their stars are on the decline. Of the players we lost only 3 of them had any influence on our season last year, Mitchell, O’Meara and gunston.

I reckon North, Bombers, Crows and Eagles could all improve for different reasons next year(new coaches, player additions, etc). Our lack of big bodies is likely to see us take a step backward, but I can’t see a winless year without the amount of growth on the list, so in all likelihood we could win between 5-7 games in 2023 but be a lot closer to the spoon.

 

[Foucault1989]

It's already been 4 years since Hawthorn played finals, and last time they opted for the scorched Earth rebuild saw them miss finals for 5 years before making it back into the top 8.

This time, however, it'll likely be at least another 3 years before they're playing finals again, and there's no guarantees they'll build a premiership quality list again this time around.

For example, look at St Kilda, who rebuilt in the early 2000s while benefiting greatly from the old priority pick system, and were desperately unlucky not to win a premiership with the side they built.

St Kilda opted for a scorched Earth rebuild again after Lyon left, and the side they managed to build this time around is basically a failed team with the Saints needing to start another rebuild.

There's every chance Hawthorn end up building a list that's middle of the road quality at best like St Kilda's current list, and that's the risk you take when opting for a scorched Earth rebuild.

I agree. No guarantees their rebuild will actually work. It'll be hard to attract top talent via trade and free agency as well.
Uncertain times ahead for Hawthorn. I'm not convinced their current crop of young players is enough to drive them forward either.

 

[Randomizor]

The Hawks were told all year that O’meara and Tom Mitchell were no good, despite Sam already playing them off the bench or on the flanks a lot more, then he trades them out for younger players of need and people all of a sudden lose their mind that we traded away superstars and we’re tanking…

Case in point.

Then.



Now.

Kane Cornes cannot understand where the sun goes at night. Hawks will be fine.

 

[bluespooner]

Good call. We will be seeing 15,000 at the MCG for Sunday afternoon games against interstate teams. They are the biggest, fickle bandwagon fans.

This is why they are not in the big 4 with Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond and Carlton. Our fans always rock up.

That must be the reason why hawthorn has to pay the poverty tax for which your club is a recipient.

 

[Blackhawk42]

History tells us rebuilding coaches who are there at ground zero of the rebuild don't last more than a few years. With that midfield, they are going to endure some horror losses. How much will the Hawthorn board endure over the next 3 years?

They've cut too deep with little compensation coming back. They needed to start this a few years ago and done it slowly. Gunston one year for a first rounder, Mitchell the next for a first rounder...maximise their returns while they were still in contract (understanding Mitchell was still in contract but would have been worth more last year) and below 30.

Everyone you listed was contracted and none wanted to leave. It's really that simple.

We are incredibly fortunate that we sacked Clarkson a season early. He wouldn't have been brave enough to get games into Macdonald, Ward, Butler etc this season like Sam was..

 

[Big_Newon]

Hawks will surely have at least 3 million spare salary cap space even while paying some of Mitchell and O'Mearas contracts. Think they will throw big money at Jade Gresham

11

Jade Gresham

Age

27

Ht

177cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

7.2

4star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

10.8

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

11.8

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

5.8

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.4

5star

G

0.4

3star

and Darcy Parish

3

Darcy Parish

Age

27

Ht

180cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.4

5star

K

9.2

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

3.3

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

9.1

5star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

3star

CL

3.1

4star

D

22.2

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

14.6

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.6

5star

next year.