Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[SSSSSS]

Why did W Day and J Ginnevan have a dust up?

I thought they did but they didn't.

Apparently it's an NBA thing. I'm not aware but Day did it last year to Dylan Moore. Few jumper punches to try and hype a player up after they kicked a goal.

https://packaged-media.redd.it/x2ocovbiglra1/pb/m2-res_480p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1717304400&s=7be1cc11c58ac504cc4535a2a967d49745424b6c#t=0

Also they seem to be having a laugh about it.

 

[Vindicater]

Having a real purple patch.

They now have a shot at finals so some internal pressure will come.

The last few years they have won when the internal pressure is off and lost when the internal pressure comes. (Like alot of young teams)

They have a good draw coming up as well. Lots of games in Tassie, home and not many away.

As an Essendon fan my worst nightmare will be Essendon finishing fifth just to lose to a resurgent Hawthorn team who finishes eighth in the first round of finals.

 

[peetoo]

Having a real purple patch.

They now have a shot at finals so some internal pressure will come.

The last few years they have won when the internal pressure is off and lost when the internal pressure comes. (Like alot of young teams)

They have a good draw coming up as well. Lots of games in Tassie, home and not many away.

As an Essendon fan my worst nightmare will be Essendon finishing fifth just to lose to a resurgent Hawthorn team who finishes eighth in the first round of finals.

Last few wins have been against teams with a LOT still to play for. Fagan made a point of saying they need to not lose to hawthorn any more.
20 seconds in port game of 100% from 5 rounds against teams spread over the current ladder. Some were coming off huge confidence boosting wins and GWS had a bye.

The draw seems easier now cos the first five were the hardest. And our top 5 scorers has 4 new players on it


Edit. So you are assuming Essendon won’t have a late season slump this year?

 

[Vindicater]

Last few wins have been against teams with a LOT still to play for. Fagan made a point of saying they need to not lose to hawthorn any more.
20 seconds in port game of 100% from 5 rounds against teams spread over the current ladder. Some were coming off huge confidence boosting wins and GWS had a bye.

The draw seems easier now cos the first five were the hardest. And our top 5 scorers has 4 new players on it


Edit. So you are assuming Essendon won’t have a late season slump this year?

I think we will have a midseason slump around our hardest part of the draw and then rise again late season with some easier games. Think we will finish 5-8, I had us fifth above only because I can't see Hawthorn getting above 8th although maybe it is 6v7.

The pressure in the games above you mentioned was all on the other teams. The pressure for the Hawks I am talking about is when they have internal pressure coming and games matter. (As in when they have a shot at finals)

Hawks the last few years have lost when they are in the finals hunt and won when they are out of it. With their current run of victories they have put themselves back in the hunt so so pressure will come. The next step for them is to win these games. (Which is not a slight, it is the natural development for young teams)

 

[Dan26]

Hawthorn are low key good.

 

[SSSSSS]

Having a real purple patch.

They now have a shot at finals so some internal pressure will come.

The last few years they have won when the internal pressure is off and lost when the internal pressure comes. (Like alot of young teams)

They have a good draw coming up as well. Lots of games in Tassie, home and not many away.

As an Essendon fan my worst nightmare will be Essendon finishing fifth just to lose to a resurgent Hawthorn team who finishes eighth in the first round of finals.

Inject that shit straight into my veins.

 

[hawkman]

As an Essendon fan my worst nightmare will be Essendon finishing fifth just to lose to a resurgent Hawthorn team who finishes eighth in the first round of finals.

My fear of playing Essendon in that case is imagine being the team that they broke the finals drought against

Still don't think we will make it. We will probably end up with about 10-11 wins which will be 2-3 wins out

 

[Vindicater]

My fear of playing Essendon in that case is imagine being the team that they broke the finals drought against

Still don't think we will make it. We will probably end up with about 10-11 wins which will be 2-3 wins out

I did a ladder predictor based on what I see as current form and had you 10th, two games out of 8th so pretty much the same. The port loss could be the difference though if you nan a few more upsets.

 

[sr36]

Well this sucks.

Having a real purple patch.

They now have a shot at finals so some internal pressure will come.

The last few years they have won when the internal pressure is off and lost when the internal pressure comes. (Like alot of young teams)

They have a good draw coming up as well. Lots of games in Tassie, home and not many away.

As an Essendon fan my worst nightmare will be Essendon finishing fifth just to lose to a resurgent Hawthorn team who finishes eighth in the first round of finals.

I don't think internal pressure is the issue that causes these things. When teams have a patch of success - what's working gets focussed on and often nullified.

 

[SSSSSS]

I think we will have a midseason slump around our hardest part of the draw and then rise again late season with some easier games. Think we will finish 5-8, I had us fifth above only because I can't see Hawthorn getting above 8th although maybe it is 6v7.

The pressure in the games above you mentioned was all on the other teams. The pressure for the Hawks I am talking about is when they have internal pressure coming and games matter. (As in when they have a shot at finals)

Hawks the last few years have lost when they are in the finals hunt and won when they are out of it. With their current run of victories they have put themselves back in the hunt so so pressure will come. The next step for them is to win these games. (Which is not a slight, it is the natural development for young teams)

Our win vs the Crows is probably the first time in our development where we embraced the pressure of expectation and met it.

We've often had wins where we have come in as significant underdogs or significant favourites. Crows v Hawks was a genuine 50/50 and it's the first time we haven't slipped on that banana skin.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hawthorn play:
GWS (UTAS) - 50/50
Richmond (MCG) - W
bye
West Coast (OS) - favourites
Geelong (GMHBA) - ? (Geelong form slump)
Freo (UTAS) - 50/50
Pies (MCG) - 50/50
Adelaide (AO) - 50/50
GWS (MO) - ??
Carlton (MCG) - ??
Richmond (MCG) - W
North (UTAS) - W

 

[Vindicater]

Well this sucks.

I don't think internal pressure is the issue that causes these things. When teams have a patch of success - what's working gets focussed on and often nullified.

Probably abit of both to be honest.

 

[SSSSSS]

Hawthorn play:
GWS (UTAS) - favourites
Richmond (MCG) - W
bye
West Coast (OS) - favourites
Geelong (GMHBA) - ? (Geelong form slump)
Freo (UTAS) - favourites
Pies (MCG) - 50/50
Adelaide (AO) - 50/50
GWS (MO) - ??
Carlton (MCG) - ??
Richmond (MCG) - W
North (UTAS) - W

We won't be favourites against GWS or Freo.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

We won't be favourites against GWS or Freo.

GWS form has been mediocre recently and it’s at UTAS. I don’t rate Freo away from OS.

 

[hawkman]

Hawthorn play:
GWS (UTAS) - favourites
Richmond (MCG) - W
bye
West Coast (OS) - favourites
Geelong (GMHBA) - ? (Geelong form slump)
Freo (UTAS) - favourites
Pies (MCG) - 50/50
Adelaide (AO) - 50/50
GWS (MO) - ??
Carlton (MCG) - ??
Richmond (MCG) - W
North (UTAS) - W

We aren't favourites against GWS and probably Freo at this stage

 

[Dewyyyyy]

We aren't favourites against GWS and probably Freo at this stage

GWS form has been mediocre recently and it’s at UTAS. I don’t rate Freo away from OS.

Although I do say it’s more 50/50 but with both at UTAS that’s where my brain has gone.

 

[hawkman]

GWS form has been mediocre recently and it’s at UTAS. I don’t rate Freo away from OS.

Freo doing fine away from OS today

 

[SSSSSS]

GWS form has been mediocre recently and it’s at UTAS. I don’t rate Freo away from OS.

Squiggle has GWS as a 57% chance to win. Sportsbet odds while still early days has GWS as firm favourites.

I'd imagine the Squiggle will rate Freo similarly as well in a few weeks time when we play them.

FWIW Adelaide was rated as a 54% chance to win yesterday.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Squiggle has GWS as a 57% chance to win. Sportsbet odds while still early days has GWS as firm favourites.

I'd imagine the Squiggle will rate Freo similarly as well in a few weeks time when we play them.

FWIW Adelaide was rated as a 54% chance to win yesterday.

Absolutely fair enough. I mean more for my personal opinion, that Hawthorn should expect to win if they play well.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It’s never as good or as bad as it seems.

Really should have done better in that last centre bounce against Port, and we’d have 5 on the trot.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

That tanking thing we are supposedly doing seems even harder yet North has made it look so easy the last few years.



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It’s their superior youth

 

[Blackhawk42]

I really hope Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

and Josh Battle

26

Josh Battle

Age

26

Ht

193cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.9

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

2.4

4star

MG

196.8

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

142.8

3star

D

10.8

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

175.6

3star

are enjoying the past 6 weeks as much as I am.

 

[peetoo]

We aren't favourites against GWS and probably Freo at this stage

Haven’t been favourites for 6 weeks now. Even where HGA comes into it

Our York park record is 74% which seems to be only matched by Collingwood at vic park through history

 

[Bedi]

I really hope Bailey Smith and Josh Battle are enjoying the past 6 weeks as much as I am.

can't fit either in anymore

 

[Mr Meow]

I thought they did but they didn't.

Apparently it's an NBA thing. I'm not aware but Day did it last year to Dylan Moore. Few jumper punches to try and hype a player up after they kicked a goal.

https://packaged-media.redd.it/x2ocovbiglra1/pb/m2-res_480p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1717304400&s=7be1cc11c58ac504cc4535a2a967d49745424b6c#t=0

Also they seem to be having a laugh about it.

View attachment 2008187

I was shocked that nobody understood what was going on with the revving up of each other.