Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[sr36]

At least you’ve fronted up, others probably won’t.

Reckon Day, MacKenzie, Newcombe are all good enough to become the star power, Ward will take over from Worpel in due course and if the mail regarding Bazlenka is true then the midfield will be quite formidable, if it isn’t already.

Dear has come from nowhere and McCabe is likely to be even better.

You'd win the social media premiership with Ginni and Baz.

 

[MinerBoy]

At least you’ve fronted up, others probably won’t.

Reckon Day, MacKenzie, Newcombe are all good enough to become the star power, Ward will take over from Worpel in due course and if the mail regarding Bazlenka is true then the midfield will be quite formidable, if it isn’t already.

Dear has come from nowhere and McCabe is likely to be even better.

Bazlenka?

 

[Caj]

Sure they’ve had a few nice wins against some ordinary teams but they’re still a long way from playing finals.

No decent key forwards or defenders and their developing mids just aren’t top shelf

Look at their % and that is a better reflection of where they’re at

These wins will just keep them in no man’s land and cost them a chance at getting real top shelf talent that they desperately need

 

[The 747]

The glasses aren’t really rose tinted if you keep winning though. How we go from now obviously remains to be seen, but there’s a lot to like about the last month

Yes there is a lot to like, fair is fair.

The last month does not mean all the midfield are stars etc though, and I have been shading SYL for this for a while.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

They're killing it. Your optimism was justified. Seems the boy can coach, as he's got them playing really connected well drilled footy in a style that will stack up under the heat of big games and moments.

I still don't see the star power to drive you forward from the middle rungs though. But I didn't see the players to get you to the middle rungs.

What "star power" is required in your opinion, midfielders, half backs, key forwards/forwards? some examples?

 

[Philhawk]

The “star power” debate is a fascinating one.

I used to subscribe to it, before watching our development this year.

Weddle, Newk, Day and Moore each can be top 5 for their respective positions in the comp.

Chol is a wonderful player who hasn’t received his flowers yet, but will once people start watching him more later this year.

Dear is a massive talent and McCabe has the potential to be even better.

It’s a bloody exciting time to be a fan, particularly when there’s just so much more improvement left in these kids in their early 20s.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Sure they’ve had a few nice wins against some ordinary teams but they’re still a long way from playing finals.

No decent key forwards or defenders and their developing mids just aren’t top shelf

Look at their % and that is a better reflection of where they’re at

These wins will just keep them in no man’s land and cost them a chance at getting real top shelf talent that they desperately need

6-7

Wins against Adelaide, GWS, Brisbane in particular who are good sides or were in form (Adelaide).

Dear has shown he will become a good key forward, Mitch Lewis is a star and returns within week or two, Chol a pretty solid option and isn't too old either, Gunston good for experience and has been performing.

Key defenders - Phillips (good first game), DGB (looked really good in the VFL today coming back from injury), Blanck (was fullback last year but ACL and was good), Frost good stopgap currently and Scrimshaw/Weddle playing as CHB and both been good.

Will Day isn't top shelf? - He absolutely is.
Jai Newcombe very well could be and has shown he's already a very good player (AA squad last year)
Cam MacKenzie/Josh Ward are both very good talents

% is irrelevant, belted in games against Melbourne, Sydney and Gold Coast whilst having a new team gelling and an injury list effecting the side.

Since Round 5s loss against Gold Coast, Hawthorn have lost just 2 games and their % looks really good (it'd be above 120, sure someone can do the math). 6-7 for the year and since round 5 it is 6-2. Besides Sydney, no one has been better in the last 2 months of footy. 2 Richmond games, West Coast, North are opportunities to get some %.

Yeah nah.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

Yes there is a lot to like, fair is fair.

The last month does not mean all the midfield are stars etc though, and I have been shading SYL for this for a while.

No, but Day, Newcombe, Weddle all looking good. Ok run home too

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Bazlenka?

Bailey Smith.

 

[theiaofseed]

Yes there is a lot to like, fair is fair.

The last month does not mean all the midfield are stars etc though, and I have been shading SYL for this for a while.

Why do they all need to be stars? Geelong won a flag with pensioned aged Selwood and Dangerfield and jackshit else.

But you will continue to move the goal posts.

 

[sr36]

What "star power" is required in your opinion, midfielders, half backs, key forwards/forwards? some examples?

I think the roles clubs really want stars are a contested marking KPD and midfielders.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I think the roles clubs really want stars are a contested marking KPD and midfielders.

Midfielders I’d say star power isn’t an issue, Day, Newcombe and Mackenzie/Ward have shown enough. Especially the first two.

Weddle has played key defense and is definitely that, although I’ll counter with the fact I believe half backs are important in modern footy to have gun players and just star forwards in general who can take the game and break it open which can be half forward, forward pocket and full forward which options are there too. It’s just about reaching potential.

 

[sr36]

Midfielders I’d say star power isn’t an issue, Day, Newcombe and Mackenzie/Ward have shown enough. Especially the first two.

Weddle has played key defense and is definitely that, although I’ll counter with the fact I believe half backs are important in modern footy to have gun players and just star forwards in general who can take the game and break it open which can be half forward, forward pocket and full forward which options are there too. It’s just about reaching potential.

All rolls matter and blokes can be really dominant from any of them, but I view gun mids and a gun tall defender as prerequisites.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

All rolls matter and blokes can be really dominant from any of them, but I view gun mids and a gun tall defender as prerequisites.

Day def one, and Lewis would be the other (when fit).

 

[The King!]

They are playing finals this year or next

 

[Sixpence]

I think there are a lot of excuses still to be made before the Hawk fans in here will contemplate that the coach may not be a genius.

Two months on, looking more like genius than not genius!

 

[Blackhawk42]

Sure they’ve had a few nice wins against some ordinary teams but they’re still a long way from playing finals.

No decent key forwards or defenders and their developing mids just aren’t top shelf

Look at their % and that is a better reflection of where they’re at

These wins will just keep them in no man’s land and cost them a chance at getting real top shelf talent that they desperately need

Probably a troll post, but I don't see a huge gap between Heeney and Warner vs Day and Newcombe if I'm honest, especially form a projection perspective.

Likewise Amarty, McClean and Macdonald vs Lewis, Chol and Dear.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Sure they’ve had a few nice wins against some ordinary teams but they’re still a long way from playing finals.

No decent key forwards or defenders and their developing mids just aren’t top shelf

Look at their % and that is a better reflection of where they’re at

These wins will just keep them in no man’s land and cost them a chance at getting real top shelf talent that they desperately need

horrendously poor analysis

 

[sr36]

Probably a troll post, but I don't see a huge gap between Heeney and Warner vs Day and Newcombe if I'm honest, especially form a projection perspective.

Likewise Amarty, McClean and Macdonald vs Lewis, Chol and Dear.

Agree with the forwards. I think you're dreaming big time with the mids, particularly if you throw in Errol.

 

[parsons nose]

Sure they’ve had a few nice wins against some ordinary teams but they’re still a long way from playing finals.

No decent key forwards or defenders and their developing mids just aren’t top shelf

Look at their % and that is a better reflection of where they’re at

These wins will just keep them in no man’s land and cost them a chance at getting real top shelf talent that they desperately need

For a moment there I thought you were talking about Sydney

 

[Caj]

horrendously poor analysis

How so?

Are Newcombe or Day in the top 50 players in the league? Will either of them ever be too 10 players?

They’re both good players but every team has a handful of quality mids (well the majority do), and the Hawks contingent isn’t a standout group

I don’t think the Hawks will make the 8 this year, they’re on a nice run now, but they’re also capable of dropping games against non contenders

As for next year, who knows? Personally I think the list still has too many holes in it to be contending seriously for some time

 

[Blackhawk42]

Agree with the forwards. I think you're dreaming big time with the mids, particularly if you throw in Errol.

Newcombe was better than Warner last season. Chad having one for the ages in 2024. They're a good comparison to one another to this point in their careers if you do a bit of a deep dive.

Heeney has only exploded this season and it's actually a but unexpected. Day could anything based on the form he started to show last season and now this year.

Gulden the outlier. We'd need one of Mackenzie or Ward to really develop into an A grader. They can, but so far Errol is streets ahead.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I feel like I’ve read it all when players that have not yet been deemed to be in Slobbo’s top 50 players is a reason a side can’t continue to rise.

 

[The King!]

Newcombe was better than Warner last season. Chad having one for the ages in 2024. They're a good comparison to one another to this point in their careers if you do a bit of a deep dive.

Heeney has only exploded this season and it's actually a but unexpected. Day could anything based on the form he started to show last season and now this year.

Gulden the outlier. We'd need one of Mackenzie or Ward to really develop into an A grader. They can, but so far Errol is streets ahead.

Newcombe and Warner tracking along a similar path for sure, Newcome is having a similar year to Chad in 2023. Plus the help around him is raw. Its a very fair comparison, I thought Newcombe was a lot better last year to be honest.

Mills comes back in helps too, not that this is a team A v team B, they play differently.


I watched Hawthorn round 1 and thought they should have won, they are developing nicely, its ****en annoying!!. Interesting if they keep building or grab a player with some cap space.

 

[sr36]

Newcombe was better than Warner last season. Chad having one for the ages in 2024. They're a good comparison to one another to this point in their careers if you do a bit of a deep dive.

Heeney has only exploded this season and it's actually a but unexpected. Day could anything based on the form he started to show last season and now this year.

Gulden the outlier. We'd need one of Mackenzie or Ward to really develop into an A grader. They can, but so far Errol is streets ahead.

Heeney and Warner are top 10 players in the comp. Your argument is that they weren't always that good therefore our blokes are likely to get to that level. It's very optimistic.