Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[VinnieB]

It is, I thought it was common knowledge. And before yr 3 too. Lynch last year. Meek amon etc this year.

Not you in particular, but a lot of drive bys haven't bothered to find out the detail in Hawthorns approach right now

Yes, but Lynch and Meek were VFL players.

 

[smish]

So, you're expecting 3 or 4 years of bottom 4 finishes?
By Hawthorn's logic, we all have North v Hawthorn grand finals to look forward to in 5 years...

The thing that should be concerning about all of this is that other clubs also have alot of top young talent. The difference being they also have on field leaders who can assist in their development. They are only going to get better.

No, this was in reference to the post I responded to.

Generally speaking, the more young players you have taken with high draft picks, the higher the probability that a higher number of these players will become good players.

The hint is in the thread 240 posts in - “which club out of Adelaide, Hawthorn and North Melbourne has the best youth?” These three clubs in particular have a high quantity of young players taken with high draft picks.

In 2018 the bottom four included Brisbane and Carlton. In 2019 the bottom four included Sydney, Carlton and Melbourne. In 2020 Sydney were still in the bottom four.

If you’ll notice, these three clubs are likely to finish around the top end of the ladder this year.

Does this make sense? Or do I need to explain this to you again?

Judging by your content in the aforementioned thread I’m beginning to think you have some kind of agenda against this football club. Call me crazy.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Honestly, I can't remember; I wasn't paying much attention to Hawthorn last year.

Right. So who had the worst Midfield in the comp do you think?

 

[Cursed Cat]

Right. So who had the worst Midfield in the comp do you think?

Any chance of you getting to the point rather than tagging me in every 5 minutes?
I've seen your argument, it's weak - fact is Hawthorn deliberately got worse in the off-season.
Your argument is that the midfield was statistically the worst in the AFL. That midfield helped your club 8 wins last year. Do you think this year's midfield will help your club to 8 wins this year? Statistically?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Any chance of you getting to the point rather than tagging me in every 5 minutes?
I've seen your argument, it's weak - fact is Hawthorn deliberately got worse in the off-season.
Your argument is that the midfield was statistically the worst in the AFL. That midfield helped your club 8 wins last year. Do you think this year's midfield will help your club to 8 wins this year? Statistically?

My argument is that we were the worst midfield in the comp. Both by eye test and statistically.

How can a side that has the worst midfield in the comp, be tanking by improving their midfield, statistically, with players who haven’t hit their ceiling?

 

[Cursed Cat]

My argument is that we were the worst midfield in the comp. Both by eye test and statistically.

How can a side that has the worst midfield in the comp, be tanking by improving their midfield, statistically, with players who haven’t hit their ceiling?

How have they improved their midfield? They haven't won a game!
Pretty sure a good midfield will win you a game here and there.
Maybe even 8.
And maybe, with a different approach, like, say, trying to build on the foundation that won you 8 games you could push for 9, 10, 11 wins.
All seems a bit too much like hard graft for Sam Mitchell though, he's happy to compromise his and his club's integrity for a quick fix, even if that means not prioritizing winning.

 

[VinnieB]

No, this was in reference to the post I responded to.

Generally speaking, the more young players you have taken with high draft picks, the higher the probability that a higher number of these players will become good players.

The hint is in the thread 240 posts in - “which club out of Adelaide, Hawthorn and North Melbourne has the best youth?” These three clubs in particular have a high quantity of young players taken with high draft picks.

In 2018 the bottom four included Brisbane and Carlton. In 2019 the bottom four included Sydney, Carlton and Melbourne. In 2020 Sydney were still in the bottom four.

If you’ll notice, these three clubs are likely to finish around the top end of the ladder this year.

Does this make sense? Or do I need to explain this to you again?

Judging by your content in the aforementioned thread I’m beginning to think you have some kind of agenda against this football club. Call me crazy.

Just providing a dose of reality. You can be as selective as you want but Carlton didn't just drop off in 2018. As you can see, it takes more than high draft picks to guarantee success.

Carlton finished:
2005 - 18th
2006 - 18th
2007 - 17th
2008 - 12th (picked up the best player in the comp)
2009 - 7th
2010 - 8th
2011 - 5th
2012 - 10th
2013 - 9th
2014 - 13th
2015 - 17th
2016 - 14th
2017 - 15th
2018 - 18th (+ AFL priority)
2019 - 16th
2020 - 11th

Melbourne was also a long time coming. Do you remember when they first finished bottom and had pick 1 and 2 in the draft? 2008 and then pick 1 again in 2009. But they were bottom 3 or 4 in prior years. 2019 was a complete shock given they played finals in 2018, and just missed out in 2017 after losing the last game. Maybe their premiership was over 40 years in the making? Alot of Brisbane's success could probably be put down to trading in guys like Neale, not to mention bringing in experience and leaders like Hodge. Schache was a bust.
Swans are unique in that they also enjoy the benefit of high quality academy selections. No doubt Warner, Gulden etc are great kids, but either way, take a look at the quality senior players/leaders both these clubs had even during the most recent lean years.

You talk as if bottoming out practically guarantees the ultimate success. Still requires plenty of luck and time and quality leaders at the club.

 

[VinnieB]

How have they improved their midfield? They haven't won a game!
Pretty sure a good midfield will win you a game here and there.
Maybe even 8.
And maybe, with a different approach, like, say, trying to build on the foundation that won you 8 games you could push for 9, 10, 11 wins.
All seems a bit too much like hard graft for Sam Mitchell though, he's happy to compromise his and his club's integrity for a quick fix, even if that means not prioritizing winning.

But they won the centre clearances! Their ruckmen got on top at centre bounces, but the midfield improved. Forget that they didn't bother defending. Nor that the swan midfielders dominated.

And it's interesting how they compare against 2022. Tom Micthell was still their best clearance player even though he didn't play his usual position. If he did, their clearance numbers would probably have been better. Worpel didn't play many games, and is probably their number 1 midfielder at this stage in 2023. And after 2 games, they are doing better in the hitouts, giving their midfielders an advantage at the centre bounce.

But none of that counts....

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

How have they improved their midfield? They haven't won a game!
Pretty sure a good midfield will win you a game here and there.
Maybe even 8.
And maybe, with a different approach, like, say, trying to build on the foundation that won you 8 games you could push for 9, 10, 11 wins.
All seems a bit too much like hard graft for Sam Mitchell though, he's happy to compromise his and his club's integrity for a quick fix, even if that means not prioritizing winning.

We’ve got 3 of our starting 5 mids who’ve barely played 2 games together as midfielders, and we’re not getting smashed at clearances by sides with more connection and games together - and these kids will only get better.

Basic logic says that we could be the worst midfield in the comp with no growth like 2022, or the worst midfield in the comp in 2023 with a heap of growth to come, and that makes it an improvement.

 

[jackenny]

Defensiveness

My argument is that we were the worst midfield in the comp. Both by eye test and statistically.

How can a side that has the worst midfield in the comp, be tanking by improving their midfield, statistically, with players who haven’t hit their ceiling?

Hawks midfield is the worst defensively. They’re like witches hats at the moment. Doesn’t matter how many taps, clearances, whatever; absolutely torched on the rebound / on turnover in their first two games.

Reminds me of Adelaide a few years back when Dangerfield still played there; could absolutely win the ball, but I remember them being an abomination defensively. Hawks midfield is that, but without Dangerfield level talent.

 

[Cursed Cat]

We’ve got 3 of our starting 5 mids who’ve barely played 2 games together as midfielders, and we’re not getting smashed at clearances by sides with more connection and games together - and these kids will only get better.

Basic logic says that we could be the worst midfield in the comp with no growth like 2022, or the worst midfield in the comp in 2023 with a heap of growth to come, and that makes it an improvement.

For starters I wouldn't call your ranking of the 18 2022 AFL midfield units as being any of objective, definitive or gospel.

More importantly, a club's improvement isn't measured in clearances.
You in particular seem very keen to separate your midfield's progress (which has led to zero wins to date) with those of your overall team. Cute.

8 wins.
That was last year's benchmark, but your club and coach have opted not to strive for better, but to play dead in 2023.
It didn't have to be that way; they chose to get worse. The coach even emailed the members to try to sell them on the long and winding road ahead - which was basically code for ''we were rubbish in 2022 but we're going to be even more rubbish moving forward'' seems many are eating it up!

 

[Cursed Cat]

Defensiveness

Hawks midfield is the worst defensively. They’re like witches hats at the moment. Doesn’t matter how many taps, clearances, whatever; absolutely torched on the rebound / on turnover in their first two games.

Reminds me of Adelaide a few years back when Dangerfield still played there; could absolutely win the ball, but I remember them being an abomination defensively. Hawks midfield is that, but without Dangerfield level talent.

I swear, Dangerfield has achieved his lot but that defensive side to his game never developed at all - he'll do something impressive defensively once in a blue moon, but he has no sense of cutting down angles and nearly always over-commits.

Anyway back to Hawthorn tanking.

That young midfield has largely thrown to the wolves. Hawthorn will likely need to trade in a Mitchell-type and an O'Meara-type in the next couple of seasons - maybe even a Liam Shiels-type.

 

[endure]

Without promotion/relegation it also makes sense to of course prioritise getting the win, but also thinking long-term by experimenting and trialling different methods and positioning whilst you are in the rebuilding period. No matter the structured planning, there's always going to be criticism. If the supporters don't have security in the outlined approach, then you'll know by their actions, and they are the ones that count.

 

[peetoo]

GWS have 25,000 members so I don’t take the totals very seriously. The only big clubs imo are Adelaide, the WA sides and the big 4 in Vic. Not that long ago we had more members than Carlton, I’m sure the Hawks did also. What did that mean? Not very much, but hey you can live with the delusions you have I guess.
I’m sure your pet memberships help, the automatic deduction clubs do with memberships, but your Tassie fans seem loyal. Clubs are good at keeping membership numbers up.

You won’t get any big crowds this year. I know lots of Hawthorns ‘fans’ you’re popular to an extent but not passionate, much like the swans.
Your fans don’t talk footy much these days and I know a few that weren’t even aware the season had started.

Already had a 60k crowd

 

[Freomaniac]

Reckon this thinking is what got you into this current mess.

“It’ll just happen cuz Hawks”

Don't worry, North Melbourne are the next Victorian dynasty lol

 

[Freomaniac]

Hawks cut the list too deep should have kept O'Merea,Gunston,Mitchel for on field guidance if anything else

Agreed.... Even though O Meara has been poor at my club Freo, he would of been solid at the hawks

 

[MinerBoy]

How have they improved their midfield? They haven't won a game!
Pretty sure a good midfield will win you a game here and there.
Maybe even 8.
And maybe, with a different approach, like, say, trying to build on the foundation that won you 8 games you could push for 9, 10, 11 wins.
All seems a bit too much like hard graft for Sam Mitchell though, he's happy to compromise his and his club's integrity for a quick fix, even if that means not prioritizing winning.

So you think it is a quick fix and a guaranteed plan for success? And not the 5-10 doomed years everyone is saying we've been consigned too?

Sounds like he's made the tough necessary decisions then, not the easy ones, based on everyone's perception of what he's done and what we're destined for.

I'm not sure if we have 10 years of doom to look forward to or if we have cheated our way to next year's premiership based on some of the posts in here. People are laughing at us and yet shitting themselves it'll be successful at the same time.

 

[theiaofseed]

How have they improved their midfield? They haven't won a game!
Pretty sure a good midfield will win you a game here and there.
Maybe even 8.
And maybe, with a different approach, like, say, trying to build on the foundation that won you 8 games you could push for 9, 10, 11 wins.
All seems a bit too much like hard graft for Sam Mitchell though, he's happy to compromise his and his club's integrity for a quick fix, even if that means not prioritizing winning.

Went from negative 6.8 clearances a game to being plus 1
Went from negative 8 tackles a game to plus 3.6

Would seem losing Mitchell and JOM in 2 games has alreayd made us a significantly better clearance team

 

[theiaofseed]

Agreed.... Even though O Meara has been poor at my club Freo, he would of been solid at the hawks

Would Omerea be better than any one of the following, Day, Worpel, Newcombe or Ward?

 

[VinnieB]

Went from negative 6.8 clearances a game to being plus 1
Went from negative 8 tackles a game to plus 3.6

Would seem losing Mitchell and JOM in 2 games has alreayd made us a significantly better clearance team

Not really. If Mitchell was played in his rightful position, last seasons clearances would have been stronger.
The thing that stands out in your numbers is that after a sample size of 2 games, your hit outs are significantly higher than last year. I would say that would also assist in providing your midfielders with the best opportunity to gain centre clearances.

Those numbers quite clearly show your midfield overall is significantly worse than last season. The domination of the Essendon and Sydney midfields and the players rotated through there clearly shows this.

But it’s not unexpected. What is hilarious is that you think it’s heading in the right direction because of ‘we have won centre clearances’.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

But they won the centre clearances! Their ruckmen got on top at centre bounces, but the midfield improved. Forget that they didn't bother defending. Nor that the swan midfielders dominated.

And it's interesting how they compare against 2022. Tom Micthell was still their best clearance player even though he didn't play his usual position. If he did, their clearance numbers would probably have been better. Worpel didn't play many games, and is probably their number 1 midfielder at this stage in 2023. And after 2 games, they are doing better in the hitouts, giving their midfielders an advantage at the centre bounce.

But none of that counts....

Of course it counts, ya dill. But we’re now the youngest and most inexperienced midfield in the comp.
We are clearly rebuilding and in any build it’s good to have a base to build from. Being competitive, or in the instances so far more than competitive at center bounces is a positive for such a young midfield playing only the first few handful of games together.

 

[peetoo]

In 2005-06 under clarko they weren’t playing to lose they were playing to get the youngsters experience and cohesion

It took Clarko 4 games to get a win. Under Sam hawks were top of the ladder after 2 rounds in 2022

 

[threesixpio]

The whole cut too deep thing is bullshit.

Our midfield were not the problem against Sydney. It was the forwardline and defence that let us down.

Sam has put immense trust in a younger midfield and it’s already showing good results.

I’m totally backing in Sammy. Love the little fat bloke and always will

 

[Gavin Excell]

The whole cut too deep thing is bullshit.

Our midfield were not the problem against Sydney. It was the forwardline and defence that let us down.

Sam has put immense trust in a younger midfield and it’s already showing good results.

I’m totally backing in Sammy. Love the little fat bloke and always will

Is Clarkson still revered at Hawthorn or is his legacy tarnished a little by the last few years?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Is Clarkson still revered at Hawthorn or is his legacy tarnished a little by the last few years?

He’s is still revered and loved for everything he achieved for us, but yes, no doubt in many members minds there were quite a few things that happened later in his time with us that they didn’t like.