Autopsy Roast & toast vs Adelaide and changes for the bye (or St Kilda)

[tora tora tora]

KMac is top 5 BNF easily

His form over the last month has been up and down. Quiet game vs Adelaide. Top 5 in our B&F isn't saying much

 

[Chunky09]

Surely dan butler is finished with the team now, man every time we had a chain going he would somehow balls it up, does nothing other than be fast. I don’t think I’m overreacting when I say he’s ruining my life

 

[Bazzar]

Surely dan butler is finished with the team now, man every time we had a chain going he would somehow balls it up, does nothing other than be fast. I don’t think I’m overreacting when I say he’s ruining my life

As a role player with limitations (like our other forwards) he has a few credits in the bank being our number one small pressure forward this year.
Forward half pressure, or lack of, has been one of our biggest concerns this season, that's why he will get a few extra games to iron things out.

 

[tiger_tough]

Unless he's got time on his hands and within 30m of goal he is a liability with the ball in hand. zero composure.

 

[mopsy]

So why does Martin average more turnovers and clangers per game than Ellis? And why is Ellis's effective disposal average per game higher (only Houli is higher than Ellis) than Martin?

do you really need to ask that question i would have thought blind fred could see.

Hmm Ellis with ball in hand. chip sideways, chip backwards panic kick up the line or panic handpass to team mate under pump.Throw in the short steps, fear to take the game on he is a momentum killer of the highest order anyone can see why this bloke is so maligned.We can certainly see why he has been dropped and why he should be traded out.We can also see why his k/e stats are high. Stats eh, stats more stats and damn lies.

When you look at what Martin consistently attempts with ball in hand and yes he makes plenty of mistakes but it really is chalk and cheese.

 

[Chunky09]

As a role player with limitations (like our other forwards) he has a few credits in the bank being our number one small pressure forward this year.
Forward half pressure, or lack of, has been one of our biggest concerns this season, that's why he will get a few extra games to iron things out.

Look I see that, all our smalls have had average season. I just can’t see why butler gets a game over Bolton at this stage, Bolton can actually play midfield, tends to lag more tackles (sporadically atm) and is a good shot at goal. Bolton is useless in midfield and one of the worst kicks in the afl, I think his only value in playing him is as trade bait

 

[Roachy8]

Surely dan butler is finished with the team now, man every time we had a chain going he would somehow balls it up, does nothing other than be fast. I don’t think I’m overreacting when I say he’s ruining my life

As a role player with limitations (like our other forwards) he has a few credits in the bank being our number one small pressure forward this year.
Forward half pressure, or lack of, has been one of our biggest concerns this season, that's why he will get a few extra games to iron things out.

Sadly Dan Butlers tricks are not working for him at the moment.
The little jinks, the kicks off the ground - seemed to come off late in 2017 but now he has either been found out or badly out of form/confidence.

Pity, because at his best he was a vital cog.

Butler out - Bolton in (for at least a month post bye)

 

[cairo tiger]

theres no comparison bw butler and bolton. only thing is buts played in a preimership team. bring on the bolt

 

[tora tora tora]

I hope we load up the VFL team with all the out of form seniors.

Look I see that, all our smalls have had average season. I just can’t see why butler gets a game over Bolton at this stage, Bolton can actually play midfield, tends to lag more tackles (sporadically atm) and is a good shot at goal. Bolton is useless in midfield and one of the worst kicks in the afl, I think his only value in playing him is as trade bait

I'd bring in Bolton to play in the middle in place of higgins. And drop a small fwd as well. Butler is first in line. And as I've said elsewhere. lets have a look at a Lynch/Chol fwd line.

 

[Bazzar]

do you really need to ask that question i would have thought blind fred could see.

Hmm Ellis with ball in hand. chip sideways, chip backwards panic kick up the line or panic handpass to team mate under pump.Throw in the short steps, fear to take the game on he is a momentum killer of the highest order anyone can see why this bloke is so maligned.We can certainly see why he has been dropped and why he should be traded out.We can also see why his k/e stats are high. Stats eh, stats more stats and damn lies.

When you look at what Martin consistently attempts with ball in hand and yes he makes plenty of mistakes but it really is chalk and cheese.

Here's the mid season "Key Statistic" ladder posted on the clubs website.

The rankings are based on how many times each player features in the top 5 of each category for the first half of the season.

Notice where Ellis is placed? Excluding the number of games played which obviously ranks some players lower, it shows his consistency throughout the year. Only blind Freddy couldn't see he is having a good year.

Total
13 – D. Martin
11 – D. Prestia
9 – S. Edwards
8 – B. Houli
7 – J. Higgins
6 – B. Ellis, T. Lynch
5 – K. Lambert, N. Vlastuin
4 – K. McIntosh, D. Grimes, J. Castagna, L. Baker
3 – D. Astbury
2 – T. Cotchin, J. Caddy, S. Stack
1 – T. Nankervis, N. Balta, J. Graham, R. Garthwaite, N. Broad

 

[ImaBeliever!]

I hope we load up the VFL team with all the out of form seniors.

I'd bring in Bolton to play in the middle in place of higgins. And drop a small fwd as well. Butler is first in line. And as I've said elsewhere. lets have a look at a Lynch/Chol fwd line.

Agree. I’d love to see a Lynch/Chol forward combo, would be exciting if they could get some chemistry. But would that be a Full-Time setup, or with Chol helping with Ruck duties? And where do Balta & Soldo fit in that regard, with all three it makes us top-heavy imo.

 

[shaky]

So why does Martin average more turnovers and clangers per game than Ellis? And why is Ellis's effective disposal average per game higher (only Houli is higher than Ellis) than Martin?

Stats can make an interesting debate.
What would be a more accurate picture would be the average number or turnovers per possession.
Also let’s consider the type of possession and turn overs. I’m sure the numbers that add to Martins turnovers is when he takes the game on and gets tackled, also as I mentioned that he tries to hit targets that are a bit ambitious.
Ellis probably doesn’t turn the ball over directly sometimes, but gives to someone under direct pressure which results in a turnover. A lot of the time he kicks high and long down the line to a contest where Martin tries to be more damaging and will result in more turnovers but will also result in more scoring opportunities.

As I said though, happy to forgive any player a few turnovers, provided they are giving everything at every opportunity, which Brandon didn’t last week.
The trouble is he ended up in the backline too often last week which is when he gets into trouble. We need him playing the forward attack wing role more with KMac the more defensive role.

 

[shaky]

See Bazzar and tropicaltiger posts above and please don't give the reply that Dusty wins more contested possessions and that's why he makes errors. He makes plenty of errors in uncontested situations as well.

For the record I am not potting Dusty or defending Ellis, just using them to highlight the difference in the way different players are treated.

I know what you are saying but not all players are equals.
Like I said though, personally happy to forgive the odd turnover, provided the player in question is giving everything on the field.

 

[Tango67]

Ellis is actually a good mark and straight kick, not sure why he hasn't been used out of the goal square with Lynch up the ground until jack is back, otherwise I would be forgetting Ellis and playing kids

 

[shaky]

Balta has been poor for the last three weeks.
A very low AF rating of 37.
Perhaps it is time for a spell in the VFL.
Perhaps we placed too much expectation in the short-term.
In Astbury, Cotchin, Edwards, Soldo.
Lambert is probably delayed.
Out Balta, Chol, Garthwaite, Menadue.

Provided there is a replacement for him.
Trouble is he’s been asked to do too much in defence, not where he is best suited IMO.

 

[shaky]

Ellis is actually a good mark and straight kick, not sure why he hasn't been used out of the goal square with Lynch up the ground until jack is back, otherwise I would be forgetting Ellis and playing kids

He is easily best 22 with all the players we have out.
Trouble is that means he has to step into things that might not suit him as much and puts more pressure on him.
He just doesn’t have the cool head to flourish as he could at AFL level.

 

[Grrr]

Here's the mid season "Key Statistic" ladder posted on the clubs website.

The rankings are based on how many times each player features in the top 5 of each category for the first half of the season.

Notice where Ellis is placed? Excluding the number of games played which obviously ranks some players lower, it shows his consistency throughout the year. Only blind Freddy couldn't see he is having a good year.

Total
13 – D. Martin
11 – D. Prestia
9 – S. Edwards
8 – B. Houli
7 – J. Higgins
6 – B. Ellis, T. Lynch
5 – K. Lambert, N. Vlastuin
4 – K. McIntosh, D. Grimes, J. Castagna, L. Baker
3 – D. Astbury
2 – T. Cotchin, J. Caddy, S. Stack
1 – T. Nankervis, N. Balta, J. Graham, R. Garthwaite, N. Broad

Ellis has played some good football, not so good of late. But I wouldn't mind betting (too lazy to look) that most of those good games are when we win, ie against lesser pressure.

 

[peterand]

Ellis is actually a good mark and straight kick, not sure why he hasn't been used out of the goal square with Lynch up the ground until jack is back, otherwise I would be forgetting Ellis and playing kids

Not a bad idea he is also quite quick

 

[Sol23]

Apparently I’m an Ellis hater but maybe they should throw him forward and see what he is like up there.

 

[mopsy]

Here's the mid season "Key Statistic" ladder posted on the clubs website.

The rankings are based on how many times each player features in the top 5 of each category for the first half of the season.

Notice where Ellis is placed? Excluding the number of games played which obviously ranks some players lower, it shows his consistency throughout the year. Only blind Freddy couldn't see he is having a good year.

Total
13 – D. Martin
11 – D. Prestia
9 – S. Edwards
8 – B. Houli
7 – J. Higgins
6 – B. Ellis, T. Lynch
5 – K. Lambert, N. Vlastuin
4 – K. McIntosh, D. Grimes, J. Castagna, L. Baker
3 – D. Astbury
2 – T. Cotchin, J. Caddy, S. Stack
1 – T. Nankervis, N. Balta, J. Graham, R. Garthwaite, N. Broad

Here's the mid season "Key Statistic" ladder posted on the clubs website.

The rankings are based on how many times each player features in the top 5 of each category for the first half of the season.

Notice where Ellis is placed? Excluding the number of games played which obviously ranks some players lower, it shows his consistency throughout the year. Only blind Freddy couldn't see he is having a good year.

Total
13 – D. Martin
11 – D. Prestia
9 – S. Edwards
8 – B. Houli
7 – J. Higgins
6 – B. Ellis, T. Lynch
5 – K. Lambert, N. Vlastuin
4 – K. McIntosh, D. Grimes, J. Castagna, L. Baker
3 – D. Astbury
2 – T. Cotchin, J. Caddy, S. Stack
1 – T. Nankervis, N. Balta, J. Graham, R. Garthwaite, N. Broad

LOL it really is quite funny. You actually think hes having a good yr and is a good player.
As i said theres stats more stats and damn lies.

You asked two questions that just about every man and his dog has the answers too and when you get an honest answer you get your knickers in a twist.

So why does Martin average more turnovers and clangers per game its obvious but you need to ask.
Why is Ellis effective disposal rating higher per game, again so obvious but you need to ask. Sad that when you actually get the answers you clearly dont want to hear you ignore them ignorance must indeed be bliss.

So you tell me, Why does martin average more turnovers ? and why is Ellis effective disposal rating higher. I cant wait for the answers this will be good.

 

[joelsyt]

Not a bad idea he is also quite quick

And can run all day with his endurance.

Oppositions defenders probably won’t be taking it easy with him chasing them.

Might be interesting to see.

 

[biaseddustyfan]

Commiserations on the loss.

Here are the midfield frequency stats from the match. If you haven't seen a previous post, this is an overall summary of how often your players were lining up as one of the 5 mids at bounces. After a suggestion last week, I'm now adding Champion Data's centre clearance stat to the mix.

Overall Summary - 28

Martin 24
Ellis 24 (22w, 2i)
Prestia 24
McIntosh 22 wing
Naish 12 wing
Graham 10
Higgins 8
Baker 8
Caddy 4
Castagna 2
Rioli 2

Rucks:
Balta 15 (O'Brien 24)
Chol 13 (Jenkins 4)

Centre Clearances (per Champion Data/AFL.com.au

Caddy 2
Prestia 1
Martin 1
Naish 1
Castagna 1

1st Half - 10

Martin 9
Ellis 8 (6w, 2i)
Prestia 8
McIntosh 7 wing
Naish 7 wing
Higgins 5
Baker 4
Graham 1
Castagna 1

Balta 7
Chol 3

2nd Half - 18

Ellis 16 wing
Prestia 16
Martin 15
McIntosh 15 wing
Graham 9
Naish 5 wing
Baker 4
Caddy 4
Higgins 3
Rioli 2
Castagna 1

Chol 10
Balta 8

Notes:
- Only the 2nd of your 10 analysed games this season where only 4 players have attended 50% or more bounces.
- Brandon Ellis's debut as an inside mid in analysed games
- Naish wrap-up with Ellis back: spent 40% of the game on the bench; 13mins less game-time than the next small (Baker); played 20mins less than McIntosh and 30min less than Ellis
- Not sure whether it was a coaching instruction or something he did on his own volition, but for the final 40mins, Ellis would start on the wing (usually on Atkins) and then run to be a spare in defense leaving Atkins to freewheel - that was at least a contributing factor in Atkins's goal
- A most un-Richmond set-up for the first half: traditionally you've preferred an extra mid around stoppages, but whilst Graham attended stoppages post-bounce this was often instead of Higgins/Baker who would return forward, rather than in addition to.
- After not receiving a single rotation last week, Higgins was the preferred 3rd inside mid at bounces for the first half
- If Graham was tagging anyone it was hard to tell as whilst he immediately went to Brad Crouch after the opening bounce, he largely stood Sloane when they both attended bounces in the 2nd half. He also manned Matt Crouch at times during the game as well.

need to play chaos castagna in the centre bounces more

 

[_RT_]

I know what you are saying but not all players are equals.
Like I said though, personally happy to forgive the odd turnover, provided the player in question is giving everything on the field.

Exactly and yet they are treated as equals in that every player has to go into every contest at 100%. Unfortunately not everyone is programmed like that as it's not there thing. There are some who do there best work outside the contest and will occasionally short step a contest. Doesn't make them squibs. Brandon is one of the best gut runners at the club, and regularly is running as hard at the end of the game as he was at the start, others will noticeably drop away in their ability to chase hard or put in a big effort to push from one side of the ground to the other. Does that make them squibs because they are no longer able to give everything?

How come some players can't be afforded any mistakes because they may have deficiencies in parts of their games, whereas others are excused their mistakes even though they also have deficiencies?

 

[Meli]

LOL it really is quite funny. You actually think hes having a good yr and is a good player.
As i said theres stats more stats and damn lies.

You asked two questions that just about every man and his dog has the answers too and when you get an honest answer you get your knickers in a twist.

So why does Martin average more turnovers and clangers per game its obvious but you need to ask.
Why is Ellis effective disposal rating higher per game, again so obvious but you need to ask. Sad that when you actually get the answers you clearly dont want to hear you ignore them ignorance must indeed be bliss.

So you tell me, Why does martin average more turnovers ? and why is Ellis effective disposal rating higher. I cant wait for the answers this will be good.

It's a very interesting question. My immediate thought is that its because Dusty gets more possessions than Brando. So, I checked it out....stats for this season:
Dusty averaging 25.3 disposals and 4.8 turnovers
Brando averaging 23.4 disposals and 3.8 turnovers
That means Dusty had just over 5 disposals per turnover and Brando just over 6 disposals per turnover!
Very interesting stat!

 

[Tango67]

It's a very interesting question. My immediate thought is that its because Dusty gets more possessions than Brando. So, I checked it out....stats for this season:
Dusty averaging 25.3 disposals and 4.8 turnovers
Brando averaging 23.4 disposals and 3.8 turnovers
That means Dusty had just over 5 disposals per turnover and Brando just over 6 disposals per turnover!
Very interesting stat!

difference is when Dusty turns it over it's because he is trying a low bullet laser pass forward of centre that if it comes off is usually a score compared to Ellis who turns it over when he kicks backwards, sideways or handball 1 meter to a player in a poor position usually under the pump...

Stats don't tell the true story

5 of Dustys kicks equal 10 of Ellis