Round 1 Trades

[Mattrox]

About 50% of people in here trolling and the other 50% just sound crazy! Can anyone explain why they are thinking of making a trade this week instead of just waiting to double their sample size and make a decision before the price rise? I am genuinely interested to hear the thoughts of a round 1 trader.

How long do you hold on to a dud and hope things get better? Ansett shareholders know all about this.... I posted that on supercoach too....

If you pick a player as a quick upgrade target, at a certain point the score is so low that the average will be adversely affected (therefore price drop) to the point that a quick upgrade becomes difficult.

I reckon the maths is telling me Lake's round 1 scores make the quick upgrade unlikely. Conversely some of the rookies with JS are highly likely to score close to what Lake will average in the short term. Even 2 scores of 90 won't help his average enough to help me out for the quick trade. 3 scores of 90 will get him back up to an average of 74.

Is he likely to get close to 90 ppg for the next 3 rounds?

"Gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run"

 

[kangarooboys]

only 2 trades a week. really thinking of upgrading him so early..... round 6 is when you start looking at your cash cows. any earlier and you have made a mistake or your burning too many trades chasing cows

 

[KP78]

How long do you hold on to a dud and hope things get better? Ansett shareholders know all about this.... I posted that on supercoach too....

If you pick a player as a quick upgrade target, at a certain point the score is so low that the average will be adversely affected (therefore price drop) to the point that a quick upgrade becomes difficult.

I reckon the maths is telling me Lake's round 1 scores make the quick upgrade unlikely. Conversely some of the rookies with JS are highly likely to score close to what Lake will average in the short term. Even 2 scores of 90 won't help his average enough to help me out for the quick trade. 3 scores of 90 will get him back up to an average of 74.

Is he likely to get close to 90 ppg for the next 3 rounds?

"Gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run"

That theory definitely does make sense, but wouldn't you prefer to have another look? You picked him for a reason based on the entire pre season and some decent thought processes, there is nothing to lose by waiting a week (potential score of rookie vs Lake I guess) unless you plan to use more than 2 trades before price change, but by waiting you will have more information on Lake in this example, more information on the rookie you are thinking of downgrading to, and might even save a trade if he performs as you expecting him to prior to one poor game in round 1.

Just a thought, we have some decent prizemoney in our league so overall is not my main aim, therefore trades are vital to me at the end so a differernt mindset in some ways I guess.

 

[Robot Chimp]

I have Giles from GWS as my number 2 ruck and Redden from PA on my bench. Thinking of switching them this week. Primus wouldn't sub Redden 2 weeks in a row would he?

Thoughts??

 

[Mattrox]

That theory definitely does make sense, but wouldn't you prefer to have another look? You picked him for a reason based on the entire pre season and some decent thought processes, there is nothing to lose by waiting a week (potential score of rookie vs Lake I guess) unless you plan to use more than 2 trades before price change, but by waiting you will have more information on Lake in this example, more information on the rookie you are thinking of downgrading to, and might even save a trade if he performs as you expecting him to prior to one poor game in round 1.

Just a thought, we have some decent prizemoney in our league so overall is not my main aim, therefore trades are vital to me at the end so a differernt mindset in some ways I guess.

I'd also like the option of bringing in the 1 or 2 of the best rookies which I overlooked pre-season. Can't do that if I'm mopping up messes.

 

[KP78]

I'd also like the option of bringing in the 1 or 2 of the best rookies which I overlooked pre-season. Can't do that if I'm mopping up messes.

Yep, I guess if you are going for overall trading early to get a settled line up giving good results could be a viable option. Good luck with DT 2012!

 

[entourage]

Well, I will be breaking the 'golden rule' but i'm not jumping the gun, because the fact is I should not have picked Hale in the first place and he will not be a premium ruckman. I figure if I trade him out now I have the opportunity next week to make two trades IF need be to get in either 2 on the rise, or just one depending on how the games pan out.

 

[James]

Lets not beat around the bush mate, You got both Buggs and Kennedys score.

By your admition in this post you dont expect them to score 100 and 116 every week, you expect 60 odd. You got lucky with the scoring of those rookies.

What im saying is by having 600k in the bank you could have had Birchall from the start anyway, instead you will be wasting trades by picking him up it puts you behind the 8 ball.

You also dont have C.Smith a required rookie 79 in 3qtrs of footy against the eagles in a flogging.

I think people are getting carried away with C Smith's score. He wont kick 4 goals every week. Wouldn't be surprised to see him wearing the green vest this week. Besides, you can't have all the best rookies. I've got 4 rookies in my mids already and not prepared to trade out McDonald just yet. If C Smith smashes out a 120 this week, I may consider, but not prepared to sideways trade rookies at this point in time.

As for Birchall, I'm not convinced that he will average 95+ which is what I'm looking for in a top 3 defender. I pencilled in Birchall for an 86 average this year, not enough for his starting price. I think 2 of Scotland, Goddard, Carrazzo & Deledio may average 100+ this year..not sure which 2 just yet. Just biding my time for now fattening up the backline cows. Will bring in the big guns when it becomes more clear on what each players week to week role will be. Will be watching Adcock closely this week as to his ongoing role. He could be a consistent big scorer with increased midfield time & without having to tag.

 

[James]

Agreed ^^^^ if you are expecting to trade birchall in later, why not just grab him now, you will still have plenty of cash left for other upgrades

Because I'm not convinced that he will be a top 3 scorer in the backs just yet, which is what I'm looking for with my first (albeit early) backline upgrade.

 

[Charliebrow 16]

I'm one of those individuals who dislikes trading in the opening round unless you're unluckily cruelled by injuries from the outset, and as such I won't be making any changes.

I'm extremely happy with my team balance to this point. When creating my team initially I came into it with the mindset of weakening my ruck division in an attempt to get that extra premium midfielder who will consistently score well. That seemed to work well as my lowest scoring starting midfielder was Toby Green (99 points) and my starting rucks, Ryder and Giles, both had good games.

My forward line has star talent, but I'm a little concerned about the backline. It held up beautifully in the opening round, but I'm unsure as to how consistent the likes of Hargrave, Schofield, Bugg and Mohr will be on a regular basis. I suppose I'll cross that bridge when I come to it, however.

So overall, no trades yet. If Barlow receives the green vest again then I might cautiously swoop as his price will invariably decrease. Yet, maybe I'd be better served to continue waiting it out. My midfield certainly doesn't need any more assistance.

 

[The Grover]

damn, just realised I accidently selected Brett Ebert instead of Brad.

Obviously won't be my year in Dreamteam.

 

[FrankenLynch]

damn, just realised I accidently selected Brett Ebert instead of Brad.

Obviously won't be my year in Dreamteam.

Very very nearly did the same thing. In the end I couldn't squeeze Ebert into my midfield and I'm kicking myself for not getting him in.

 

[Rudeurrection]

Really disappointed i chose Broughton over Adock so ill straight swap this week.

And Boyd wont get close to thirty touches against Adelaide, straight swap for John McCarthy to free up so cash so next week i can go Giles to Ryder before Ryder's price rises.

Ill also straight swap Mitch Robinson for Kurt Tippett, the way i figure it if i had three Crows (Danger, Porps and Tippett) in my forward line from the same team the less ill have to worry about the two bye rounds Adelaide arent in.

 

[James]

Really disappointed i chose Broughton over Adock so ill straight swap this week.

And Boyd wont get close to thirty touches against Adelaide, straight swap for John McCarthy to free up so cash so next week i can go Giles to Ryder before Ryder's price rises.

Ill also straight swap Mitch Robinson for Kurt Tippett, the way i figure it if i had three Crows (Danger, Porps and Tippett) in my forward line from the same team the less ill have to worry about the two bye rounds Adelaide arent in.

4 trades by Rd2? Not sure if serious... Very aggressive trading if you are. Looks like I wont be the only Bay13 team to be out of trades by Rd15 this year.

 

[MarkRobboPA1870]

I traded B.lake out for bugg and then traded burgoyne out and used the new trading system to put beams into the middle and trade in Franklin. I am very happy it has added an extra 140 to my projected total now up to 2180 with a max of 2540

 

[Dwight Schrute]

Only one trade for me this week
Broughton to Birchall
Most likely wont be trading next week.

 

[yogibbear]

No trades for me this week. Probably only one next week to fix whichever rookie has the least impressive B/E for someone I missed.

 

[Atavistic]

4 trades by Rd2? Not sure if serious... Very aggressive trading if you are. Looks like I wont be the only Bay13 team to be out of trades by Rd15 this year.

Nah, it's just a joke - like many of the trades posted this week. Boyd to McCarthy? Like anyone in their right mind would make that trade.

 

[CrozaN]

Nah, it's just a joke - like many of the trades posted this week. Boyd to McCarthy? Like anyone in their right mind would make that trade.

FYI, the winner last year traded Boyd out in round 3 and well he won the whole thing.

 

[James]

FYI, the winner last year traded Boyd out in round 3 and well he won the whole thing.

Pretty sure he's taking the piss. He scored 2200+ in Rd 1 and is a very good DT coach. Besides, he has bigger problems fixing some of his rookie/bench selections than sideways trading his premos ATM.

 

[Atavistic]

FYI, the winner last year traded Boyd out in round 3 and well he won the whole thing.

Yes, but that was right before the Bullies' bye round. Are you trying to argue that Boyd to McCarthy is a good trade?

 

[CrozaN]

Yes, but that was right before the Bullies' bye round. Are you trying to argue that Boyd to McCarthy is a good trade?

no not at all.

Last years winners did the craziest trades yet he still won.

I am not really making a point other than there isn't one way of winning this game.

 

[Keystone agony]

Last years winner got lucky Crozan, i wouldnt follow what he/she did.

 

[CrozaN]

Last years winner got lucky Crozan, i wouldnt follow what he/she did.

Hah no way am i following his strategy, i am just saying, anything can happen.

 

[iluvparis]

Last years winner got lucky Crozan, i wouldnt follow what he/she did.

That's probably why you won't win