Autopsy Round 21, 2024 : Hawks snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

[extractasam]

Some of the questions from whoever was on Sam’s left seemed a bit weird and convoluted. The last one nailed it as did his answer. Gotta play 4 Quarters, we didn’t and we lost.
It’s burns and I see us coming hard next week. A 4 quarter effort and I reckon we roll the blues.

Hahaha I wondered if anyone else picked that up, could sense Sam getting frustrated at some of his questions.

 

[TylerDurden]

I thought it was the least effective 37 possession game I’ve seen.
He had 12 at quarter time.
Watson had 2, and had twice the influence.
Whitfield wasn’t the problem.

Um, he's had 700m gained and 10 score involvements.

It's as good as you'll see.

 

[satan1]

I thought it was the least effective 37 possession game I’ve seen.
He had 12 at quarter time.
Watson had 2, and had twice the influence.
Whitfield wasn’t the problem.

He had 700m (almost 400 to half time) gained and 10 score involvements. He might not catch the eye but he killed us.

Edit:
TylerDurden jinx

 

[Brucie Buffer]

Thought the energy was off from previous weeks with the younger brigade.
Ginni, CJ, CMac, Wiz etc
When they’re up and about having fun, celebrating with smiles, jumping all over each other we look a different team.
Even when Weddle and Mass kicked their goals there was little fan fare within the group.
Both Ginn and Wiz looked like they were pretty frustrated today.

 

[Blackhawk42]

At the ground it felt like we were far better with our efficiency forward of centre.

The 28 point lead felt more than enough.

I genuinely never saw them storming home like that.

I was still confident with 5 minutes to go, until the deliberate out of bounds against Ward. That's when the Port game PTSD reared up. I just knew.

At least I'll be able to convince my 4 year old son that we won by 28 points, because three quarters was enough for him. Wife came and picked him up during that break.


We're a good footy team. An opposition key forward and some questionable umpiring is why our season is over.

I thought Newk, Mass, Amon, Meek and Weddle were our best.

 

[RoughysMullet]

100% this.

Frost had to man Hogan at all times. No hand overs.

Anyone had to lock down on Whitfield. Was slicing through us like a surgeon late. 37 touches at 90% is as good a performance from half back as you'll ever see.

All of a sudden we've got headaches everywhere:

• Sicily can't physically compete with his shoulder
• Ward isn't up to speed
• CJ is off
• what do we do with Breust
• Dear need a spell?
• Day didn't cope with a tag.

A week is a hell of a long time in footy.

• Think you just persist with Sicily until we can’t make finals- it’s either that or shut him down for surgery
• Back Ward in again- wasn’t great but can’t keep dropping him every bad game- was really good last week
• CJ is up and down- I liked him better off half back but he’s learning to play that wing role which may take time after being off for so long with injury
• Not sure on Bruest- had his moments and I know he wants to go on but has looked way off the pace at times this season
• Dear is there to provide a second tall target and take the focus off Chol- he’s done well for a rookie but was beaten by Buckley who is a great defender- if he does need a spell maybe we give Scaife a look after 4 goals in the 2’s
• Was wondering why it had taken a club so long to tag Day- expect it will happen again and this is where he needs to find a way to handle it whether he goes forward or back but others through the midfield will need to step up

 

[Paul Kersey]

Said in the match day thread. Small forwards really struggled today imo - couldn’t lock the ball in and didn’t seem to be near the drop when it mattered in the last.

 

[hebog]

I just realized why we lost. Albanese was at the game with his brand-new Hawks scarf on.

Was it Albanese or the new scarf that did it?

 

[Walshawk]

• Think you just persist with Sicily until we can’t make finals- it’s either that or shut him down for surgery
• Back Ward in again- wasn’t great but can’t keep dropping him every bad game- was really good last week
• CJ is up and down- I liked him better off half back but he’s learning to play that wing role which way take time after being off for so long with injury
• Not sure on Bruest- had his moments and I know he wants to go on but has looked way off the pace at times this season
• Was wondering why it had taken a club so long to tag Day- expect it will happen again and this is where he needs to find a way to handle it whether he goes forward or back but others through the midfield will need to step up

Reckon next week is Sicily’s last H & A game for 2024. Either gets the op done or strengthens for finals if we beat Carlton.
A lot of the young guys were flat. McKenzie and Maginness were Box Hill’s best. Morrison also would have been a better sub today than Bruest. Run and smarts is what we needed in the last Q. Like Gunston LB is relying purely on his nous, the body can barely keep up. We need to bring one of two of those guys in for LB and anyone who needs a rest.
Day could have gone to FF when Dear went off, or the backline to break the tag.

Mitchell was out-coached today. He is still learning too. That will happen.

 

[passionate81]

It has annoyed me a few times during the year, but why do we pull the trigger on the sub before we need to? Yes Dear was getting beaten in the air, but I thought he was competing ok. We were 4 goals up so the dynamic of our forward line must have been working and if he stays on, he's another guy they need to watch out for. With him off, they seemed to just double team Chol everytime we went forward. And we could have done with an extra target up the line in the last 10 minutes.

 

[grumbleguts]

This is exactly what they were tipping. This prediction was done last Monday.

View attachment 2069156

and now this week it’s predicting this.

View attachment 2069163

Hahaha! Gold. I said "Models", you show the two most pessimistic ones. If you average all of them, and there are a bunch, they come out as us making finals on 14 wins. (This of course was before the swans shat the bed - but still) How did you expect any model to give a team 1.3 losses?

 

[LunchboxLegend]

Um, he's had 700m gained and 10 score involvements.

It's as good as you'll see.

He had 31 to 3QT and we led by 28.
I repeat, Whitfield was not the problem.

 

[seysearles]

Hahaha! Gold. I said "Models", you show the two most pessimistic ones. If you average all of them, and there are a bunch, they come out as us making finals on 14 wins. (This of course was before the swans shat the bed - but still) How did you expect any model to give a team 1.3 losses?

This is the most famous model of afl that I am aware of. It’s the only one that I looked at. If you have alternatives feel free to post them but this one wasn’t “chosen” to suit my narrative.

 

[seysearles]

It has annoyed me a few times during the year, but why do we pull the trigger on the sub before we need to? Yes Dear was getting beaten in the air, but I thought he was competing ok. We were 4 goals up so the dynamic of our forward line must have been working and if he stays on, he's another guy they need to watch out for. With him off, they seemed to just double team Chol everytime we went forward. And we could have done with an extra target up the line in the last 10 minutes.

We had the wrong sub for the circumstances. Not really Mitchell’s fault but a mcguiness would have been much handier

 

[grumbleguts]

This is the most famous model of afl that I am aware of. It’s the only one that I looked at. If you have alternatives feel free to post them but this one wasn’t “chosen” to suit my narrative.

I genuinely hope you find that happiness you seek if we miss finals.

 

[seysearles]

I genuinely hope you find that happiness you seek if we miss finals.

I’m gutted right now tbh. It hurts to get so close and blow it by such a fine margin.

 

[Buzz Hawk]

It took something special to beat us. Greene, Hogan and Daniels had insane last quarters. We never truly had the game on our terms, even when we skipped out to a 28 point lead. The Giants pressure all day was great and we struggled to get the game on our terms. Bedford quelled Day’s influence in the midfield and impacted the midfield massively.

Nash tried hard in their and his two goal assists were very good - a testament to the work that he has put into that part of his game.

Meek battled hard against Briggs all day which is what we needed. Had a few missed chances for goal that certainly would have been handy. Needed him on the line for the Hogan mark on the goal line but this will be picked up in the review I’m sure.

Gunners had 5 touches for 4 goals - did his job on Taylor well in that aspect, making himself really important to the team.

Moore was his industrious self like always, putting himself in great positions to use the ball well to set up with 3 goal assists.

Amon off half back was smooth with the ball in hand, while Newcombe’s clearance work in the centre was great to watch.

Massimo on the wing goes from strength to strength, not only using the ball well but finishing well to end up with two goals.

Weddle was given a massive task on Hogan, who was sitting in second place on the Coleman ladder. It’s a big learning curve for Weds, who is in his second year and under 40 games, but will hold him in good stead down the track one feels.

The Giants are certainly no slouch, having many quality players who have been in high pressure games over the past 5 years and know how to win these tight ones. This loss will burn the players and I have no doubt that they’ll come out firing next week, ready to give themselves the best chance for September action.

If you get to ask Sammy a question or two next week, can you ask him why he allowed Whitfield to roam free all day.
Asking for a friend.

 

[A Diakos]

This is exactly what they were tipping. This prediction was done last Monday.

View attachment 2069156

and now this week it’s predicting this.

View attachment 2069163

if we win 14 games our % will be more than 105 %.....it will be closer 108/9%...that's a final birth on their scenario

 

[Nugett]

I’m gutted right now tbh. It hurts to get so close and blow it by such a fine margin.

Let’s say you’re right, we don’t make finals. We are still in a better position than what we were last year. We have improved, where next year there is a huge possibility of us not only making a final, but possibly winning one.

Compare that to both North and West Coast, who have both stagnated.

So we are in a very good spot where our list is. Irregardless of wether we play finals or not this year.

 

[Hawkspot]

Tough loss on the road to a great team, it took them kicking 7.1 in the last to get over us in the 30th minute.

We weren’t at our best and lost, it happens to every team.

Not the end of the world. 100 comments past last weeks win thread already, pretty pathetic stuff from some on here.

I talked about it during the week, but Dear’s inability to last more than 2.5 quarters is hampering us massively. He makes a real impact when he’s on, unfortunately he didn’t even manage 50% game time this week before being subbed off.

Scaife’s turn for a run I reckon.

 

[extractasam]

Let’s say you’re right, we don’t make finals. We are still in a better position than what we were last year. We have improved, where next year there is a huge possibility of us not only making a final, but possibly winning one.

Compare that to both North and West Coast, who have both stagnated.

So we are in a very good spot where our list is. Irregardless of wether we play finals or not this year.

It’s funny how quick the goalposts move on our expectations isn’t it. Round 7 we are more than solidified as a bottom 3 team and our fans couldn’t get out the gates quick enough in the 3rd qtr of that swans game.

Fast forward to round 20, season well and truly alive, we drop a game to a good side and perspective seems to have gone out the window for most. The choke was disappointing regardless but the expectations of winning have gone a bit over the top for mine

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Yep. It hurt.

I still think we end up with 13 or 14 wins. Every other year that has been enough (to make finals).

If this is the one year it isn't - it would be weird but so be it.

We're not winning the flag in 2024 regardless but have come a long, long way and have really set us up for next season.

 

[MatteeG]

Teams with genuine big forwards are always gonna trouble our current setup if we dont get any pressure on the ball carriers coming in.

If the blues go in with Curnow and McKay I can see a bagful somewhere if we can't slow the flow.

Glad to see McKenzie get a ton of ball in the vfl. He'd be useful where Day gets held out of the game. Would loved to have seen wiz in the middle late as a mix up.

Another big crowd experience next week, let's see how the guys respond.

On another point, are those Manuka goal posts the tallest in the land?

 

[hawkman]

But we didnt learn. Was very similar to the port loss.
1) Sub off calsher early and lose a player to bring the ball to ground up the field.
2) Go into our shells halfway through the qtr and try take time off the clock with 10mins to go, rather than play the attacking football that wins us games. Our defense is not good enough to defend the turnover, its the forward pressure which is our biggest defensive strength.

Dear wasn't subbed off in the Port loss, CJ was

 

[Hodgey 15]

Was disappointed with loss (especially after blowing 28 point lead) but I'm not as invested in making the 8 as some. Don't get me wrong it would be very nice but I'm not going to lose sleep over it this season. We'll get our lick of the ice cream and I never expected it in 2024 anyway.

Going to be tough game against Blues next week so maybe this loss will act as a good little reset for the team.

2024 season is almost over. 2025 - now that's what I can't wait to get in to.