Welcome Welcome to Adelaide: Alex Neal-Bullen - Traded for Pick 28

[FR0GGY]

Overs, but not way overs.

Pick in the mid 30s would've done.

Yep happy to call it overs

 

[AFC979810]

Wouldn’t say upset but I’d say it’s way overs for a 29yo good player.

Fair enough. I think its around the mark.

Wouldn't be surprised if its 25 and 42 for ANB and pick 38.

Think its really important to look at our list in this instance. At pick 25 you generally aren't getting a ready made player and with finals being the expectation for 2024 - they most certainly need to be the focus for 2025. ANB helps that greatly.

 

[Soggy2112]

You can't compare NFL to AFL in this instance.

The talent available to AFL clubs in the draft is pretty bad. Anything after pick 15 isn't really that valuable to be honest.

A pick around 25 for ANB is nothing to criminal.

I disagree, depends how deep the draft is, but historically picks 20-30 have a pretty good strike rate.

 

[Captain Furious]

You can't compare NFL to AFL in this instance.

The talent available to AFL clubs in the draft is pretty bad. Anything after pick 15 isn't really that valuable to be honest.

A pick around 25 for ANB is nothing to criminal.

Sure I can. In fact, I just did. And every year, future champions are picked in the rookie draft. Pick 16 and above not being valuable may be one of the stupidest things I’ve read on here and that’s really, really saying something.

In 176 games ANB has a single 1 game where he got Brownlow votes. No top 5 B&f finishes. He’s the very definition of a role player. Will he make our best side? Sure. Will he win any games for us? Nope.

Early picks (and 25 is an early pick in this draft) are for players with influence. Role players come later. A role player with a couple of seasons left? Pick in the 50s at best.

 

[Scorpus]

I disagree, depends how deep the draft is, but historically picks 20-30 have a pretty good strike rate.

Maybe we don't rate that range because our strike rate is awful

 

[Gtowncrow]

Sure I can. In fact, I just did. And every year, future champions are picked in the rookie draft. Pick 16 and above not being valuable may be one of the stupidest things I’ve read on here and that’s really, really saying something.

In 176 games ANB has a single 1 game where he got Brownlow votes. No top 5 B&f finishes. He’s the very definition of a role player. Will he make our best side? Sure. Will he win any games for us? Nope.

Early picks (and 25 is an early pick in this draft) are for players with influence. Role players come later. A role player with a couple of seasons left? Pick in the 50s at best.

His first role is to displace Murphy.
For everything else, there's MasterCard!

 

[Danger in Texas]

Sure I can. In fact, I just did. And every year, future champions are picked in the rookie draft. Pick 16 and above not being valuable may be one of the stupidest things I’ve read on here and that’s really, really saying something.

In 176 games ANB has a single 1 game where he got Brownlow votes. No top 5 B&f finishes. He’s the very definition of a role player. Will he make our best side? Sure. Will he win any games for us? Nope.

Early picks (and 25 is an early pick in this draft) are for players with influence. Role players come later. A role player with a couple of seasons left? Pick in the 50s at best.

Ashcroft, Marshall, Kako and Lombard, as well as comp picks for Battle/Perryman/Cumming (I’m guessing band 2 for him) will soften the blow a bit, I guess

But still not getting the most value out of it. I’d even be okay if the deal takes a while to get done, but doing it day 1 (as Twomey says it might be) feels very lazy

 

[FR0GGY]

Fair enough. I think its around the mark.

Wouldn't be surprised if its 25 and 42 for ANB and pick 38.

Think its really important to look at our list in this instance. At pick 25 you generally aren't getting a ready made player and with finals being the expectation for 2024 - they most certainly need to be the focus for 2025. ANB helps that greatly.

I guess the worst thing about giving up 25 is it takes away some bargaining power if we are into Luko, basically means we need to use our F1

 

[AFC979810]

Sure I can. In fact, I just did.

You sure did. Maybe I should have phrased it a bit better.

Comparing NFL draft picks and their worth to AFL draft picks and their worth is utterly stupid.

And every year, future champions are picked in the rookie draft. Pick 16 and above not being valuable may be one of the stupidest things I’ve read on here and that’s really, really saying something.

So your argument is that rookie draft picks are valuable?

With regards to pick 25 - between the years 2000 and 2018 we have had 51 draft selections that were 25 and later. Only 10 of them of have gone on to play 100 games for the club. Once again - picks outside of the top 15 aren't really that valuable.

In 176 games ANB has a single 1 game where he got Brownlow votes. No top 5 B&f finishes. He’s the very definition of a role player. Will he make our best side? Sure. Will he win any games for us? Nope.

8th in a premiership teams B&F. He is a very good role player who makes us better. We have plenty of top end draft picks over the past 5 years we are trying to develop.

And what are you expecting with pick 25?

Who are the best picks 25 since 2000 until we picked Cook in 2020?

The best players from pick 25 since 2000 have been - Jack Redden, Seb Ross, Dan McStay, Josh Dunkley, Ben Long, Noah Balta, James Rowbottom.

In the last 20 years the best pick 25 has been a good role player.

You are Peter Griffith in this clip.

Early picks (and 25 is an early pick in this draft) are for players with influence. Role players come later. A role player with a couple of seasons left? Pick in the 50s at best.

25 aint an early pick - especially when there are only 60 picks in the entire AFL draft.

 

[AFC979810]

I disagree, depends how deep the draft is, but historically picks 20-30 have a pretty good strike rate.

We have had 17 Picks between 20-30 since our inception into the AFL.

Cook, Berry, Schoenberg, Worrell, Hamill, M Crouch, Kerridge, Gunston, McKernan, Otten, Jacky, Van Berlo, Gibson, Steinglein, Johnson, Kennett, McKinnon.

3 All Australian game winners (Crouch, Johnson, Gunston)
2 long term servants, but role players (Steinglein/VB).
2 very good third tall role players (Otten / Worrell)

10 average footballers.

Its worth giving up a pick like this for a guaranteed walk up best 22 player.

 

[Danger in Texas]

We have had 17 Picks between 20-30 since our inception into the AFL.

Cook, Berry, Schoenberg, Worrell, Hamill, M Crouch, Kerridge, Gunston, McKernan, Otten, Jacky, Van Berlo, Gibson, Steinglein, Johnson, Kennett, McKinnon.

3 All Australian game winners (Crouch, Johnson, Gunston)
2 long term servants, but role players (Steinglein/VB).
2 very good third tall role players (Otten / Worrell)

10 average footballers.

Its worth giving up a pick like this for a guaranteed walk up best 22 player.

One thing I'll say about ANB is I think he'll play at a good level for a few years, into his 30's. Is athletic enough (but doesn't seem to have to rely on it) and skilled enough (but plays within his limits), and is a hard trainer

So I don't think this is a Gibbs case where you get one good year from him and that's it

 

[AFC979810]

One thing I'll say about ANB is I think he'll play at a good level for a few years, into his 30's. Is athletic enough (but doesn't seem to have to rely on it) and skilled enough (but plays within his limits), and is a hard trainer

So I don't think this is a Gibbs case where you get one good year from him and that's it

Absolutely. And I am not out here saying he is going to become a Brownlow medalist.

He is a good player and has proven he can be a very good player in a good team (Melbourne 2021). His age doesn't worry me at all. The bloke is still only 28 years old and as a small forward will be just fine.

Most importantly he makes us much better in 2025. We have had plenty of close loses over the past 2 years. If we had him over Murphy these past two years - I would wager we would have won 2 games more in both 23 and 24.

 

[Soggy2112]

We have had 17 Picks between 20-30 since our inception into the AFL.

Cook, Berry, Schoenberg, Worrell, Hamill, M Crouch, Kerridge, Gunston, McKernan, Otten, Jacky, Van Berlo, Gibson, Steinglein, Johnson, Kennett, McKinnon.

3 All Australian game winners (Crouch, Johnson, Gunston)
2 long term servants, but role players (Steinglein/VB).
2 very good third tall role players (Otten / Worrell)

10 average footballers.

Its worth giving up a pick like this for a guaranteed walk up best 22 player.

Look I wouldn’t be outraged if we gave up 25 but we would definitely be losing on that trade, based on trades other clubs have done.

For context, Melbourne traded Harmes for a pick that will work out to be 48 at best.

 

[ABAB]

One thing I'll say about ANB is I think he'll play at a good level for a few years, into his 30's. Is athletic enough (but doesn't seem to have to rely on it) and skilled enough (but plays within his limits), and is a hard trainer

So I don't think this is a Gibbs case where you get one good year from him and that's it

Gibbs came to the club at the worst time a year after the CM debacle and there was rumour of gambling trouble.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Absolutely. And I am not out here saying he is going to become a Brownlow medalist.

He is a good player and has proven he can be a very good player in a good team (Melbourne 2021). His age doesn't worry me at all. The bloke is still only 28 years old and as a small forward will be just fine.

Most importantly he makes us much better in 2025. We have had plenty of close loses over the past 2 years. If we had him over Murphy these past two years - I would wager we would have won 2 games more in both 23 and 24.

Yeah, I’ve been talking about weeding out the weak links in our side, and adding him and Cumming address two of the said weaknesses (Murphy, and our lack of run/carry, respectively)

I’m not sure it makes us a finals side yet, though - that is, without continued improvement from our younger brigade and/or a change in coaching

 

[Danger in Texas]

Gibbs came to the club at the worst time a year after the CM debacle and there was rumour of gambling trouble.

I mean, he was good for a year even after CM happened

The higher ups clearly thought he’d be a good piece for a few more years than he was, given how much we paid

 

[ABAB]

I mean, he was good for a year even after CM happened

The higher ups clearly thought he’d be a good piece for a few more years than he was, given how much we paid

Crack started to appear in 2018 (we headed into the bye still in top 4 contention and then the season stuffed up) and then shit hit the fan in 2019.

 

[Cromulant]

I mean, he was good for a year even after CM happened

The higher ups clearly thought he’d be a good piece for a few more years than he was, given how much we paid

The arse really fell out of the club after that first year, he was just part of it.

I don't think he REALLY ever wanted to leave either, just a hunch.

 

[AFC979810]

Look I wouldn’t be outraged if we gave up 25 but we would definitely be losing on that trade, based on trades other clubs have done.

For context, Melbourne traded Harmes for a pick that will work out to be 48 at best.

Once again I disagree... Look at the history of the quality of player teams are willing to trade in for a pick in the 20's.

Plenty of examples of role players being traded for a pick in the 20's.

Levi Greenwood was traded for pick 25.
Stanley & 60 were traded for pick 21
Allen Christenson was traded for pick 21
Frost, 40, 53 traded for pick 23 (ABN was taken with this pick 40).
Jake Melksham for pick 25
Tom Bell & 41 for Pick 21 and 60
Chris Yarran for pick 19
Brad Hill for Pick 23
Michael Hibberd & 59 for Pick 29 and 68
Caddy & 56 for 24 and 64
Impey and 67 for 33,61 and a future 4th
Pick 31 for Watts
Jake Stringer for 25
Mathew Kennedy for 28
Schace for 25 and 40
Josh Bruce for 32 and 51
Pruess for 31
Shaun Higgins for 30
Fantasia and 3rd for Pick #29
Richmond trade 27 for 38,40 and a future 3rd.
Geelong trade 23 for 32 and 34.
Grundy for 27
Rory Lobb for 30 and a future 2nd.
We gave up pick 28 and Kerridge to land Menzel.

This illustrates that picks in the 20's just aren't that valuable. Just last year Melbourne gave up Pick 27 and 35 just to move from pick 14 to pick 11.

Pick 25 just aint that valuable. Even if we trade it straight up for ABN its not a terrible trade.

 

[AFC979810]

Yeah, I’ve been talking about weeding out the weak links in our side, and adding him and Cumming address two of the said weaknesses (Murphy, and our lack of run/carry, respectively)

I’m not sure it makes us a finals side yet, though - that is, without continued improvement from our younger brigade and/or a change in coaching

Coaching is a massive massive issue. I have said that we are a finals list the past two years - we have just been hamstrung with one of the top 20 worst coaches in AFL / VFL history.

If we got ANB / Cumming and had a competent coach we are 100% a lock for the finals. IMO - with a good run and the idiots still in charge - the addition of Cumming and ANB should be enough to elevate us to a finals spot in 2025.

 

[Scorpus]

Once again I disagree... Look at the history of the quality of player teams are willing to trade in for a pick in the 20's.

Plenty of examples of role players being traded for a pick in the 20's.

Levi Greenwood was traded for pick 25.
Stanley & 60 were traded for pick 21
Allen Christenson was traded for pick 21
Frost, 40, 53 traded for pick 23 (ABN was taken with this pick 40).
Jake Melksham for pick 25
Tom Bell & 41 for Pick 21 and 60
Chris Yarran for pick 19
Brad Hill for Pick 23
Michael Hibberd & 59 for Pick 29 and 68
Caddy & 56 for 24 and 64
Impey and 67 for 33,61 and a future 4th
Pick 31 for Watts
Jake Stringer for 25
Mathew Kennedy for 28
Schace for 25 and 40
Josh Bruce for 32 and 51
Pruess for 31
Shaun Higgins for 30
Fantasia and 3rd for Pick #29
Richmond trade 27 for 38,40 and a future 3rd.
Geelong trade 23 for 32 and 34.
Grundy for 27
Rory Lobb for 30 and a future 2nd.
We gave up pick 28 and Kerridge to land Menzel.

This illustrates that picks in the 20's just aren't that valuable. Just last year Melbourne gave up Pick 27 and 35 just to move from pick 14 to pick 11.

Pick 25 just aint that valuable. Even if we trade it straight up for ABN its not a terrible trade.

How many of those role players were traded for a pick in the 20s with the knowledge they'd only be playing their best football for another 3 years at best?

 

[ABAB]

Once again I disagree... Look at the history of the quality of player teams are willing to trade in for a pick in the 20's.

Plenty of examples of role players being traded for a pick in the 20's.

Levi Greenwood was traded for pick 25.
Stanley & 60 were traded for pick 21
Allen Christenson was traded for pick 21
Frost, 40, 53 traded for pick 23 (ABN was taken with this pick 40).
Jake Melksham for pick 25
Tom Bell & 41 for Pick 21 and 60
Chris Yarran for pick 19
Brad Hill for Pick 23
Michael Hibberd & 59 for Pick 29 and 68
Caddy & 56 for 24 and 64
Impey and 67 for 33,61 and a future 4th
Pick 31 for Watts
Jake Stringer for 25
Mathew Kennedy for 28
Schace for 25 and 40
Josh Bruce for 32 and 51
Pruess for 31
Shaun Higgins for 30
Fantasia and 3rd for Pick #29
Richmond trade 27 for 38,40 and a future 3rd.
Geelong trade 23 for 32 and 34.
Grundy for 27
Rory Lobb for 30 and a future 2nd.
We gave up pick 28 and Kerridge to land Menzel.

This illustrates that picks in the 20's just aren't that valuable. Just last year Melbourne gave up Pick 27 and 35 just to move from pick 14 to pick 11.

Pick 25 just aint that valuable. Even if we trade it straight up for ABN its not a terrible trade.

Dobson is projected to be drafted in the early 20s though.

 

[Cromulant]

How many of those role players were traded for a pick in the 20s with the knowledge they'd only be playing their best football for another 3 years at best?

Looking at the list, a handful.

But as far as the standard of those players goes, ANB sits comfortably in the top half.

25 is a bit overs, but it's not awful.

 

[TRP1996]

In 176 games ANB has a single 1 game where he got Brownlow votes. No top 5 B&f finishes. He’s the very definition of a role player.

Sounds like he'll fill the gaping void left in our side since the retirement of the greatest player to wear the tricolours, David Mackay.

 

[AFC979810]

How many of those role players were traded for a pick in the 20s with the knowledge they'd only be playing their best football for another 3 years at best?

All of the players traded above had massive question marks - thus diminishing the value of the mid 20's picks.

Bruce, Watts, Grundy, Higgins, Hibberd (27) were all older players traded in.

Plenty of others had issues which diminished their value. Christenson (Gambling), Stringer (off field), Schace (shit footballer).

Plenty others had shown nowhere near what ABN has shown in his career.

It appears no other clubs really rate picks in the 20's.