Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[H00t]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. If they knew Hopper was going to battle injury like this there's no way they would of given up what they did. The question is was nothing picked up in a medical? He has lost more than a step but had some good years at GWS prior to the injuries started and there was a bidding war with Geelong from memory.

Taranto been good, won the BnF in the first year between the two of them they gave up picks 12, 19, 31 and a future 1 but got Taranto, 53 and 63 in

It looks tough now due to the Hopper inability to stay on the park and when he is out there he doesnt have the explosive pace he used to have but they got Taranto for unders and paid overs for this version of Hopper

Rather than missing something on the medical it could be down to tigers mismanagement, they do have a lot of players injured most of the time. Even during their premierships they had players missing.

Also looking past Taranto’s disposal numbers he’s an absolute butcher with the ball same as he was at GWS. There’s a reason GWS improved by moving him and Hopper on.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

The tigers traded horribly getting those 2 players in. Was a massive overpay. Would much rather miss on target(s) than have a trade period like they did.

Saying that aside from the teams we are trading with being pricks I can’t see us failing to bring in someone if they nominate us.

They traded horribly because Hardwick sold them a lemon, when they needed to hit the draft.

 

[Bardo State]

Mitch Lewis averages 10 games a year over his career. No club is paying a first round pick .

If I was another club and I saw a guy who is a 26 year old 2.5-3 goal a game contested marking full forward available for anything less than a first round pick, I'm biting Hawthorn's hand off to take that deal. His ACL issues aren't enough to knock that down.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

On the same level of credibility... I was talking to a North fan who says they are keen on Morrison and Lewis.

He also claims:
1. Morrison is keen to go there. If we get Battle then there will be no compo pick for Morrison, so Hawks are hoping he will either stay, or at least wait until after the FA window closes so we can trade him and at least get a 4th rounder or something.
2. North are keen on Mitch Lewis, but Melbourne's interests has diminished because they have enough to deal with. North's offer for Lewis would be F2, but they may want something like an F3 going back. (I doubt we would agree to that.)

Normally I would not bother to post this, but this is the same guy who told me Scrimshaw had signed before it was announced. According to him, North had been very much into Scrimshaw.

Take all of that with the same fraction of a portion of a piece of a grain of salt, but there it is.

Worth repeating but the only Hawthorn players that wound want to go to North are ones without a contract for 2025.

 

[Slaatybaadfaast]

Player agent feeds clueless journalists with info designed to trigger price war. Journalists dutifully publish agenda-driven horseplop designed to escalate player's value in resulting trade war back and forwards. Player continues with life largely separate from turgid negotiations. AFL fans digest horseplop daily in the newspapers. Real trade motivations revealed as d-day draws nearer. Reality bites, and player begins to exercise their preferred option. Agent forced onto back foot by canny club au fait with the uselessness of journalists and their hyped-up nonsense. Real trade gets done.

 

[Platten44]

On the same level of credibility... I was talking to a North fan who says they are keen on Morrison and Lewis.

He also claims:
1. Morrison is keen to go there. If we get Battle then there will be no compo pick for Morrison, so Hawks are hoping he will either stay, or at least wait until after the FA window closes so we can trade him and at least get a 4th rounder or something.
2. North are keen on Mitch Lewis, but Melbourne's interests has diminished because they have enough to deal with. North's offer for Lewis would be F2, but they may want something like an F3 going back. (I doubt we would agree to that.)

Normally I would not bother to post this, but this is the same guy who told me Scrimshaw had signed before it was announced. According to him, North had been very much into Scrimshaw.

Take all of that with the same fraction of a portion of a piece of a grain of salt, but there it is.

Last week North fans were super pumped as they thought they were getting Broad and Haynes. Not many AFL standard players who have a choice will go to North unless it's a Griffin Logue situation and the pay packet is triple his actual worth.

 

[H00t]

They traded horribly because Hardwick sold them a lemon, when they needed to hit the draft.

They definitely needed to hit the draft but even with a strong list that was poor trading.

Which was more my point. At some point the cost of trading in a player becomes too much. Our list will be fairly resilient to such a decision given the depth and strength of the list (especially compared to the tigers list in 2022). Doesn’t make it a good decision though.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Dogs board yesterday. Please delete if not allowed, interesting nonetheless.

Please be true.

 

[Hawk the Talk]

They traded horribly because Hardwick sold them a lemon, when they needed to hit the draft.

Exactly!

We are at the perfect stage to make these moves…. Tigers, just like us in 2016 were not. Geelong is the outlier but they got guys like Dangerfield and Cameron at the peak of their powers, and gave up very little relative to their value at the time.

 

[The Big Dipper]

Mitch Lewis averages 10 games a year over his career. No club is paying a first round pick .

Yet we're being asked to pay 2 x 1st for a KPD that averages 15 games a year?

If the shoe were on the other foot we'd be falling over ourselves to pay a 1st for a player of Mitch's quality.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Hypothetically speaking we have plenty of avenues to create value, it's simply a matter of weather we are prepared to do it.

The following players are dispensable in the right situation....

Mackenzie	1st Round Pick
Lewis	1st Round Pick
Ward	2nd Round Pick
Reeves	2nd Round Pick
Maguiness	2nd Round Pick
Hustwaite	2nd Round Pick
Morrison	3rd Round Pick / UFA
Grainger-Barass	3rd Round Pick
Mitchell	3rd Round Pick
Ramsden	3rd Round Pick
Wingard	4th Round Pick / UFA
Stephens	Steak Knives / UFA

If executed correctly we could achieve anything, including the unthinkable.

Here's our options and there values....

Barass	1st, F3 & Player
Battle	UFA
Perryman	UFA
Smith	F1
Petracca	1st, F1 & Player

I'm not for a minute saying we will pull off all of these trades, rather demonstrating that we can generate the value to make the big trades if / when we need to. We currently have our 1st & F1 and could potentially generate an additional 2 x 1sts if we were willing to move Lewis and Mackenzie.

Anyone got a different view on the above values?

I'd say there is absolutely zero chance we would trade Mackenzie for a first rounder. He's developing well and is starting to have confidence in his body/strength - evidenced by him shrugging tackles and attempting side-steps. I personally love that his head is always on the swivel when he gets the ball too.

IMO he's going to be a gun and a weapon of a kick.

We'd be lucky to get those kinds of returns for Reeves, Maginess, DGB, Wingard and Stephens.

 

[KermitJagger]

Worth repeating but the only Hawthorn players that wound want to go to North are ones without a contract for 2025.

Considering Lewis was one of the driving forces amongst the youngsters that forced the club into moving on from Clarko...

 

[Mississippi]

I'd say there is absolutely zero chance we would trade Mackenzie for a first rounder. He's developing well and is starting to have confidence in his body/strength - evidenced by him shrugging tackles and attempting side-steps. I personally love that his head is always on the swivel when he gets the ball too.

IMO he's going to be a gun and a weapon of a kick.

We'd be lucky to get those kinds of returns for Reeves, Maginess, DGB, Wingard and Stephens.

Agree

Trading Mackenzie would be like trading a 20 year old Shane Crawford.

 

[Noel Gallagher]

F2 for Mitch if true is just laughable and would never happen. If true, proves what a joke of a cub norf are if that is their opening offerr. Re Barrass, if Eagles demand 2 x 1st they can eff off as well. Won't happen and as suggested previously, draft period will drag out till they finally relent and take our 1st and something else

Our days of being easy beats at draft negotiations are well and truly over

 

[MC_9]

A fit Mitch could be our final piece of the puzzle. We wouldn't get what he is worth, so there would be no point trading him.

We have seen KPF come good from injuries and other issues in their late 20s. He is as good a chance as any to turn it around.

We will just hold and hope that his body comes good. That is worth a lot more than a 2nd round pick.

On Pixel 6 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bugs1977]

They traded horribly because Hardwick sold them a lemon, when they needed to hit the draft.

It's always the ageing champion that is the last to know when to throw the towel in. Richmond much like us felt like they had one more fight in them but obviously tried to delay the inevitable. All good things come to an end all that

 

[The Big Dipper]

Worth repeating but the only Hawthorn players that wound want to go to North are ones without a contract for 2025.

Not sure about that. Ward, Seamus, Maguiness & Reeves would see pretty clearly that it's going to tough breaking into the Hawthorn team and could be swayed to leave for more opportunities at North

 

[Billyc]

Due to never staying on the park, Lewis’ trade value is nowhere near his potential value to us. We’d be selling him at his lowest value. Doesn’t make sense unless he wanted to leave

 

[hawkinoz]

Not sure about that. Ward, Seamus, Maguiness & Reeves would see pretty clearly that it's going to tough breaking into the Hawthorn team and could be swayed to leave for more opportunities at North

We are not pushing anyone who has a contract for 2025 out.

It is upto other clubs to get in the players ear and convince them to ask for a trade. When that happens, we name our price, not the laughable prices listed by the one poster above.

Those who don't have a contract will have to talk to other clubs via their managers and see if any one is willing to offer them 2+ yrs contract and if so, we can ask for 3rd rounder or so as fair compo. Picks that we can use to bundle up to move higher. Else those clubs can wait to pick them up if we delist them or sign them up for 1 yr deals.

The ones whose contract ends in 2024
Josh Bennetts (B), Luke Breust, Denver Grainger-Barras, Jack Gunston, Harry Morrison, Jack O'Sullivan (2022 ND), Ethan Phillips (SSP) (A), Cooper Stephens (A)*, Clay Tucker (A), Chad Wingard

The below list could be looking for more security and could be persuaded by other clubs more easily. I am sure we are working overtime to lock up the big names here
2025
Sam Butler, Massimo D'Ambrosio, Calsher Dear, Sam Frost, Finn Maginness, Seamus Mitchell (A) , Lloyd Meek^, Max Ramsden (A), Bodie Ryan, Jasper Scaife, Jai Serong , Josh Ward, James Worpel

IMO if we get Battle, Barrass, Perryman then few on the list who have had a good or decent 2024 but are likely to be playing VFL in 2025 will have some thoughts. They will be thinking this is the ideal time to talk to other clubs for a good contract of 3+ yrs. Will be lot risky to leave this decision to same time next year if they have been stuck in VFL for most of it or had a form downturn.

Frosty is the one clubs like North should target with 2-3 yr deals. He will most likely be depth for us. Good for us but not ideal for him.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Due to never staying on the park, Lewis’ trade value is nowhere near his potential value to us. We’d be selling him at his lowest value. Doesn’t make sense unless he wanted to leave

Absolutely.

I think it's the same for Ward too. His potential value to us far outweighs any pick we would likely receive in a trade.

 

[ahhhhhh]

Due to never staying on the park, Lewis’ trade value is nowhere near his potential value to us. We’d be selling him at his lowest value. Doesn’t make sense unless he wanted to leave

I agree with no point selling him for unders, but also definitely don’t think ‘he’s the missing piece’. He simply cannot get on the park and when he did this year he looked extremely slow. Not sure where is his place is the way the game is going.

 

[The Big Dipper]

I'd say there is absolutely zero chance we would trade Mackenzie for a first rounder. He's developing well and is starting to have confidence in his body/strength - evidenced by him shrugging tackles and attempting side-steps. I personally love that his head is always on the swivel when he gets the ball too.

IMO he's going to be a gun and a weapon of a kick.

We'd be lucky to get those kinds of returns for Reeves, Maginess, DGB, Wingard and Stephens.

Personally, he looks scared to me. No doubt his time will come but if Petracca becomes available then things like trading a young up and coming player with value is a no brainer.

You could be right with Reeves, Maginess, DGB, Wingard and Stephens

 

[Hawk the Talk]

Maybe last year but I haven’t seen him shirk the contest once this season. I think Ward has bigger issues in that regard.

 

[The Big Dipper]

Absolutely.

I think it's the same for Ward too. His potential value to us far outweighs any pick we would likely receive in a trade.

He's a KPF at 26 years old. In 2022 he played 15 games for a return of 37 goals and in 2023 he played 15 games for a return of 36 goals, you can paint a positive picture if you look at it the right way. Collingwood, Melbourne, Geelong, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Richmond, West Coast, Essendon would all pay overs for Lewis if he were available.

 

[HoldingThe Ball]

Maybe last year but I haven’t seen him shirk the contest once this season. I think Ward has bigger issues in that regard.

Don't forget Josh has had significant concussion issues.

4 or 5 now isn't it?