I'd argue 'don't rush to judgement' along with glimpses of potential is all you're really ever going to get with a tall in year 1. I think people are way too worried about Curtin at this point and expecting far more than is reasonable. It would have been nice if he had played more games, absolutely, but I wouldn't be reading too much into his performances at all.I’m not making judgment. I deliberately used the words “shaping up to be” because it’s early days.
I’m not saying I expected him to win the Brownlow or even the Rising Star in year one. But I’d rather hoped that by June we’d be in a position where the best that could be said is something more than “don’t rush to judgment”.
For a bit of comparison, here are the top 10 draft picks over 195cm from the last 3 years in their first season:
- Sam Darcy (Pick 2) - 4 games, debuted in round 21, though actually was pretty good in those games, obviously a massive talent
- Mac Andrew (Pick 5) - 4 games, debuted in round 20
- Jye Amiss (Pick 8) - 3 games, played in round 8 and then 2 finals, kicked 4 goals
- Josh Gibcus (Pick 9) - 18 games, played pretty much the full season though did fade towards the end
- Aaron Cadman (Pick 1) - 12 games, debuted in round 5 and played most of the season, was subbed off in a third of his games and missed the end of the season and finals. Kicked 6 goals.
- Jed Walter (Pick 3) - 10 games so far, has kicked 9 goals and shown glimpses but certainly not dominating.
- Ethan Read (Pick 9) - 4 games so far, similar to Curtin in that he's been subbed off a few times and hasn't done too much, though did kick a couple against the Hawks.
A lot of these guys had injury issues, struggled to break into the side, or struggled to impact games when picked. Most did show potential as well because they are all good players. And none are busts, the ones who were not drafted in 2023 all look good.
Curtin isn't massively behind these guys. Hopefully he can put together a couple more good SANFL games and play some more AFL this season but a few games and glimpses of potential is about on pace. What we want to see is improvement next season.