Preview Changes & Preview Thread for QF2, 2024 vs Geelong

[Arsene Wenger]

Just the 2 x changes ?
Evans sub ?

I don't mind it

i am guessing Narkle sub. Frank starts.

 

[Papa G]

most likely. They have dangerous smalls - Close, Miers, Stengle. Even Mannagh has stepped up.

I must admit I like this over putting Sinn in. Sinn just has been thoroughly underwhelming so far and he could have easily turned into a deer in headlights in a big game. Yes moving DBJ out of the forwrd line hurts us in that area, but just feel Sinn could have hurt us way more at the other end.

 

[PowerLil]

McEntee LOL. Hinkley probably. "Geelong will have to remember. Last time we played 'em and Jed played, they got beat."
Jed McEntee. Mystifying.

 

[Rash]

Kane Cornes: 'I think Dylan williams replaces farell'

 

[Rash]

This makes me very nervous. The champion Data bloke

 

[Alberton Proud]

Channel 7 Free to Air Standalone fixture but we're up against a couple of blockbuster games elsewhere

Socceroos v Bahrain qualifier in the GC

Broncos v Storm final in Brisbane

Will be interesting to see the viewing numbers

 

[240volt]

Channel 7 Free to Air Standalone fixture but we're up against a couple of blockbuster games elsewhere

Socceroos v Bahrain qualifier in the GC

Broncos v Storm final in Brisbane

Will be interesting to see the viewing numbers

I believe the Broncos v Storm game is the last game of the home and away season
It’s a dead game, result means nothing.
Nobody gives a fk about the Socceroos anymore.
They’re shit.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

I must admit I like this over putting Sinn in. Sinn just has been thoroughly underwhelming so far and he could have easily turned into a deer in headlights in a big game. Yes moving DBJ out of the forwrd line hurts us in that area, but just feel Sinn could have hurt us way more at the other end.

I originally would have gone Sinn for Farrell to keep it simple, but it would be a big risk given Geelong's small forward stocks and Sinn's inexperience.

We will miss DBJ's forward work, but if he stops Stengle from kicking 4 goals as he did last time we played them, it will be worth it.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

If we do lose badly this board and the media explosion will be a sight to behold

Until we win the semi-final and then where are the Hately Hinkers now comes back

 

[cosmicwinduptoy]

This makes me very nervous. The champion Data bloke

I can't be bothered watching the whole segment but assume the numbers he is touting are 2024 full season? If so, largely irrelevant, as really you'd want just the last 8 weeks to get an accurate read on things.

 

[Willsy10]

Sinn probably needed to string a few good games together in the SANFL, he just hasn't been able to do that due to injury and form.

I think he has the makings of a good player, but definitely needs more minutes on the field, we don't have time for trial and error here. Whilst he does have a nice kick, quite often in the games he has played he was quite panicked and rushed with his kicking, resulting in a lot of dump kicks, we need composure in defence. Sinn in was a nice idea, but would've been a risk.

I don't really understand how we are being cute or risky putting DBJ down back, a position he actually was AA in once before, if anything that is the safe bet with the next option being moving Burgoyne or bringing in Williams. Sinn was always the biggest gamble.

Narkle and Evans should be able to cover DBJ offensively.

 

[cosmicwinduptoy]

This is quite a unique finals series, we either win a flag or we get a new coach. Both are effectively a win. The outlier is if we somehow make a GF but don't win the flag. Is this the likely outcome?

 

[Rash]

I can't be bothered watching the whole segment but assume the numbers he is touting are 2024 full season? If so, largely irrelevant, as really you'd want just the last 8 weeks to get an accurate read on things.

ill sum it up for you:

So in finals most games are chaos rather then control

• Chaos is defined as more ground balls then marks
• Control is defined as more marks than ground balls

Geelong is the team who play chaos the most in the whole comp, and port force teams to play a chaos brand of footy whilst we take more marks and control the ball. so bassicaly he is saying that port are in trouble becuase of this and the fact that geelong are the best post clearence gorund ball team, if the ball goes to the oustide they're high half fwd flankers can run a muck.

The thing that will win port the game is that we are the best team at scoing from centre clearences and clearecnes in general, if port win this is why.

 

[Powerade 08]

ill sum it up for you:

So in finals most games are chaos rather then control

• Chaos is defined as more ground balls then marks
• Control is defined as more marks than ground balls

Geelong is the team who play chaos the most in the whole comp, and port force teams to play a chaos brand of footy whilst we take more marks and control the ball. so bassicaly he is saying that port are in trouble becuase of this and the fact that geelong are the best post clearence gorund ball team, if the ball goes to the oustide they're high half fwd flankers can run a muck.

Well he and his stats have never been right about anything so I guess its good news for us.

 

[cosmicwinduptoy]

ill sum it up for you:

So in finals most games are chaos rather then control

• Chaos is defined as more ground balls then marks
• Control is defined as more marks than ground balls

Geelong is the team who play chaos the most in the whole comp, and port force teams to play a chaos brand of footy whilst we take more marks and control the ball. so bassicaly he is saying that port are in trouble becuase of this and the fact that geelong are the best post clearence gorund ball team, if the ball goes to the oustide they're high half fwd flankers can run a muck.

I notice he said that port is the worst groundball team and geelong is the best. Is this based on the whole season? We've improved immeasurably in this since rat moved out of the backlines and we started playing smaller, as well as restructuring the midfield. Hence me saying that really the last 8 weeks give a better gauge as to the strengths and weaknesses of each team.

 

[Rash]

Well he and his stats have never been right about anything so I guess its good news for us.

he has been right about us every year, but in saying that he said collingwood would lose all of their finals last year.

 

[Ported]

This makes me very nervous. The champion Data bloke

I think you can pick out stats to prove anything.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

They seem to be selectively choosing when to apply stats from the whole year versus recent form. Our ground ball game hasn't been as bad the last 5 games (Geelong still better overall.) We're also easily the best tackling side the last 5 weeks, so who the hell knows how it all shakes out.

Maybe Geelong's ground ball strength means they'll be the best suited to finals. Maybe in the heat of finals, all the other teams rise to match it and expose Geelong's other weaknesses.

 

[240volt]

This is quite a unique finals series, we either win a flag or we get a new coach. Both are effectively a win. The outlier is if we somehow make a GF but don't win the flag. Is this the likely outcome?

If we make the GF Ken will be there next year.
If we win get used to seeing his face for an extended period.
There’s no such thing as a premiership without more Ken.

 

[pstew2dstew]

It is a strange feeling this time.

As someone mentioned, it's a grand final or bust for the coach who got his team to 2nd in one of the hardest seasons of attrition.

Let's be honest any other year previous going into this season we finish 12th. We actually earnt 2nd we actually deserved our spot where yesteryear felt Bradbury'd

And only PAFC could find itself in this unique position.

 

[Ralph Lorenz]

The only historical stat I'm taking as gospel is the top 6 points against, which has Brisbane, WB, Hawks and Port in the window. Hasn't failed the test in 20 years.

 

[240volt]

I originally would have gone Sinn for Farrell to keep it simple, but it would be a big risk given Geelong's small forward stocks and Sinn's inexperience.

We will miss DBJ's forward work, but if he stops Stengle from kicking 4 goals as he did last time we played them, it will be worth it.

He’ll play back for sure, Narkle playing against his old side in a final, it just feels right

 

[Malibu#27]

I notice he said that port is the worst groundball team and geelong is the best. Is this based on the whole season? We've improved immeasurably in this since rat moved out of the backlines and we started playing smaller, as well as restructuring the midfield. Hence me saying that really the last 8 weeks give a better gauge as to the strengths and weaknesses of each team.

Biggest statement for me was "Theres no finals team that wants the chaos game more than Geelong does".

My takeaway is that because their midfield isn't as good as other teams, they want to lock down the midfield and make it a slog. When we played them last time, we were smashing them in the middle in the first half with lots of easy clearances and easy scores, they then went to town on locking down JHF and tightening it up.

I rewatched that game last night... we went in with Visentini leading ruck ... and he did a reasonable job, but if we are honest we would expect more out of Sweet. They also activated their sub Oisin Mullin midway through the game to put a lock on JHF. From what I can tell Mullin hasnt been in great form and hasnt played since round 16, so it will be interesting to see what they do there.

 

[yepits2020]

I’ll bet on a Geelong player accidentally smacking Marshall in the head in the first quarter, from a clumsy player (assuming Marshall plays). Done it before to players, and Marshall will be seen as a soft target.

 

[Port01]

Pretty sure the last time we had a final go the same way as the most recent game between the two clubs was about 2013.
I'd be more confident if Geelong smashed us last time.
Is good news if we come up against GWS or Brisbane though!

 

[Ported]

I notice he said that port is the worst groundball team and geelong is the best. Is this based on the whole season? We've improved immeasurably in this since rat moved out of the backlines and we started playing smaller, as well as restructuring the midfield. Hence me saying that really the last 8 weeks give a better gauge as to the strengths and weaknesses of each team.

Last 5 games according to that stats page:

Ground Ball Gets

Port 3rd
Geel 6th

Hard Gets (balls in dispute/physical contest)

Port 15th
Geel 1st

Loose Gets

Port 1st
Geel 15th

Gather from HO

Port 7th
Geel 12th

Crumb from marking contest

Port 10th
Geel 1st

I guess it depends on who each team played, and how they define the categories. We've also won more contested possession the past 5 weeks. From what I can tell, this is kinda a combo of all similar 'ball in dispute' stats.

Contested Possessions last 5 weeks

Port 5th
Geel 8th