Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Foucault1989]

Yes, looking back at some posts I had bookmarked from earlier in the thread regarding our inevitable Wooden Spoon, I stumbled across one of yours.

Exciting times!

 

[Foucault1989]

Is that bad? If I happen to find a new thread I will like a post I like even if it is old.

This is not a new thread for this bloke. It's not bad, but it's an interesting way to spend your time

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

This is not a new thread for this bloke. It's not bad, but it's an interesting way to spend your time

Off season boredom.

 

[Xtreme]

This is not a new thread for this bloke. It's not bad, but it's an interesting way to spend your time

I haven't been able to like any posts since 2020

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

I am not saying this is set in stone/an absolute, but I do feel like the Hawks are probably 2 draft and trade periods away (after this month's draft) from being in firm finals contention again..

They are a hard team right now talent wise to get an actual realistic and honest assessment on, I expect then to leap frog the likes of Essendon and St Kilda over the next 18-24 months or so.

8-9 wins should be the realistic target for the Hawks next season (given a good injury run)

I think they now have a list and players good enough to escape out of bottom 4, yet haven't got enough experience or games into their kids yet to be a realistic finals charge.

Somewhere between 11th-13th range next season seems right

 

[sr36]

I am not saying this is set in stone/an absolute, but I do feel like the Hawks are probably 2 draft and trade periods away (after this month's draft) from being in firm finals contention again..

They are a hard team right now talent wise to get an actual realistic and honest assessment on, I expect then to leap frog the likes of Essendon and St Kilda over the next 18-24 months or so.

8-9 wins should be the realistic target for the Hawks next season (given a good injury run)

I think they now have a list and players good enough to escape out of bottom 4, yet haven't got enough experience or games into their kids yet to be a realistic finals charge.

Somewhere between 11th-13th range next season seems right

Just about impossible to pick the teams in the bottom third of the ladder. Most teams have a good enough list to push the 8 if they get their game in order and get lucky with injuries.

 

[Caligo]

Just about impossible to pick the teams in the bottom third of the ladder. Most teams have a good enough list to push the 8 if they get their game in order and get lucky with injuries.

Maybe not west coast. But otherwise I agree.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Amazing how we have a 200 page thread on Hawthorn's supposed "tanking", but nobody seems to say much about North and West Coast tanking these past few years.

It's unreal.

I blame campaigners in the media like Damian Barrett who misdirect people's attention like a bad magician doing a card trick.
They go on and on about the Hawks tanking and hope nobody notices how North & Eagles basically stopped trying after 2021

I think it was out of WCE's hands. They've had a torrid run with injuries to their best, experienced players. This has exposed the lack of depth.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I am not saying this is set in stone/an absolute, but I do feel like the Hawks are probably 2 draft and trade periods away (after this month's draft) from being in firm finals contention again..

3 drafts away from finals contention?

Like most teams we’ll need things to go well on the injury front, but the idea that Hawthorn can’t contend for finals for another 3 years just shows you weren’t paying attention to what happened in 2023.

 

[Leeda]

I haven't been able to like any posts since 2020

Narbethong....ne neither

 

[Red Bull]

Hawthorn bottom 4 in 2024.

Every chance.
Hard to see which clubs they will leapfrog.
The midfield looks promising but nothing really around the ground from the rucks.
Frost and Blanck as KPD hardly inspire.
The forward line looks to lack in defensive pressure.
Waverley doesn’t help the cause, with no news of any progress at Dingley.
Mitchell into his third season would obviously be keen to climb …

 

[Xtreme]

Hard to see which clubs they will leapfrog.

Geelong
Collingwood for starters!

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Why not finals next year? Almost every year a team comes from the bottom 4 to surprise everyone and make finals. The scalps they got last year show that they have the tools, just need consistency.

The forward line has improved overnight: Chol is an improvement on Kosi/Ryan. Ginni is an improvement on Brockman. Gunston isnt moving the needle buthe works so well with Bruest. Moore is getting better every season and is still 24. If Lewis stays fit (big guys get more reliable as they age) and if they pick Watson suddenly there are plenty of options for goals.

The midfield is extremely exciting, not a concern at all. They won a load of clearance battles against bigger teams last year and if you exclude Amon on the wing, Nash is the oldest of them at 25.

Defence is where the concern is. They have beautiful users coming out of defence, just need Blanck to improve and maybe they sign a big body in the SSP to play a role to free up Sicily.

Things need to go right to make finals, especially for such a young team. But with an easy draw and some luck in some areas (Lewis' fitness, Blanck improvement, pick 4 having an immediate impact), I dont see why they cant be the bolter.

No chance they are bottom 4 again anyway.

 

[Chadwiko]

Why not finals next year?

Because you're a bad team.

 

[Ashman23]

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Because you're a bad team.

That's a good reason, but i don't think it will apply to hawthorn next year.

 

[FB19]

Because you're a bad team.

We may be time will tell but one thing is for certain…any side who thinks they will be able to defend with key backs of Aidan corr, Charlie comben (who I don’t think has played in defence) and Toby pink is extremely optimistic. It looks like the sort of defence an expansion side would field in year 1. Now who’s tanking? Purple headed warrior anyone?

 

[peetoo]

Thread has to be renamed north Melbourne for 2024

 

[Leeda]

Thread has to be renamed north Melbourne for 2024

Samsung TV...taking a potshot...

 

[Nugett]

For me Hawks performed above expectations in 2023 - rather than bumping their expectations for 2024 above their 23 result, the 7 wins is their new par score.

That is a fair comment. Next season isn’t about jumping over other teams, it’s about bettering our 2023 performance. So getting a minimum of 8 wins should be our main target in going forward for next year. Success is not relying on other teams to falter, it’s looking at self improvement.

 

[Nugett]

I watched Collingwood play with Daicos, Daicos, Mitchell, Pendlebury, Degoey, Adams, Crisp, Sidebottom, Lipinski - 8 mids. I have no doubt you would have been better with JOM and Mitchell in the team as well as your current mids.

Short term possibly they could have made us better, long term, they were holding us back. The hawks are playing the long term game, so quite understandable as to why they were expendable.

 

[Caligo]

Frost & Blanck V Corr & Pink

View attachment 1864408

Blanck is well ahead of the other three. Not saying much though. Key defence will be a real problem for both clubs. Hopefully we both drafted some quality at KPD.

 

[sr36]

That is a fair comment. Next season isn’t about jumping over other teams, it’s about bettering our 2023 performance. So getting a minimum of 8 wins should be our main target in going forward for next year. Success is not relying on other teams to falter, it’s looking at self improvement.

To me, it's not even about number of wins. Hawks need their young mids to hold ground or improve and have a couple more players put their hand up. It's about building a stronger group.

 

[Ashman23]

To me, it's not even about number of wins. Hawks need their young mids to hold ground or improve and have a couple more players put their hand up. It's about building a stronger group.

So, we could lose more games and still improve by playing better. Maybe even go up in some key metrics.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

That is a fair comment. Next season isn’t about jumping over other teams, it’s about bettering our 2023 performance. So getting a minimum of 8 wins should be our main target in going forward for next year. Success is not relying on other teams to falter, it’s looking at self improvement.

Next year is absolutely about wins and a better performance though. The leadership group are already motioning that they will be pushing each other to challenge for finals on the back of the second half of 2023, as they should. Those performances should absolutely become the baseline in the search for consistency.

Thankfully the coach and players don't want to indulge in the "softly softly, we'll limit our expectations on each other and just gradually improve" mantra, as that's quickest way to go nowhere.