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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?
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Best case is at least 8th for any side not called North Melbourne or West Coast.
Incredibly even comp. A good run of injuries, form and luck can see any of the rest play finals. Hawthorn are in that group now. It's not expected, but it's a chance.
Caligo
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I agree, I really like Frost on mid size or smalls who play tall. But if we have blanck on daniher and Frost on ccameron then Sicily needs to actually be responsible for hipwood and can't be free to do his loose thing.
Strapping Young Lad
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10-12 wins would be the expectation from inside the club, at the least.
Should have had 10 wins in 2023, so it’s not crazy, but we need to keep a relatively injury free spine to do so.
SSSSSS
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100% but I'm pretty excited at what Ginni and the Wiz can bring to the team.
Kosi > Chol
Brockman > Gini
It's an upgrade (at least on current output) any way you look at it.
SSSSSS
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Lewis plays his best footy as an old school CHF.
I do eventually want to see Lewis shifted to FF permanently. I get worried about someone with already a suspect history of lower body injuries doing so much running at his size. Especially the way he hits the packs.
CHF is a brutal role on the body.
Strapping Young Lad
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With Wiz and Ginnivan added to Moore and Butler we’ve all of a sudden gone from “who replaces Breust in 12 months” to “ok, that area looks pretty stocked now”.
Chol is going to be fun to watch with all these little blokes at his feet.
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In expecting us to finish anywhere between 12th to 16th, before making a leap in 2025.
If we have an increase in wins, a large reduction in getting smashed (from 8 games in 2023) and score more then it will be a successful season for us, IMO.
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Lost a close game where the opposition had 2 players clearly on the sauce
FB19
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First Gavin Excell is a great username - was a major talent enjoyed watching him play.
I’m not fussed with # of wins tbh unless it’s dire or enough for finals I might change my tune later in the year. I think we have another development year when we see the core of our drafting strategy get to the 20-60 game mark which is when I feel like we can spike quickly. My main hope is competitiveness for majority of games and to see some unexpected players jump up as that will be the key to fast track our rebuild. DGB and Butler on close watch.
I'm not sold on DGB
Caligo
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We aren't either. But we have big hopes.
FB19
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Yeah I am not either, but the point was to highlight IMO who if they had breakout years would dramatically speed up our rebuild. Add Max Ramsden to that.
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Counting close losses as "should have been wins" is ridiculous.
North should have had 8 wins then (five games lost by 9 or under) and Adelaide should have had 16 wins. It just doesn't work like that.
What about our close wins? Should they have been losses instead? Where does the madness end?
Edit:
Close loss in R5 vs GWS. GWS had 27 scoring shots to our 20.
Close loss in R6 vs Adelaide. Adelaide had 24 scoring shots to our 21.
Close loss in R19 vs Richmond. Richmond had 26 scoring shots to our 20.
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Strapping Young Lad
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3pts, 2pts and 1pt losses in the last minute of the game isn’t the same as 9pts, but you already know that.
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Does this mean that we have to count the Saints win in R11 as a loss now, because they shat the bed in the last 5 minutes just like we did in those three losses? So really in your fantasy scenario we only end up with 9 wins. Or does it only count when it works in our favour?
In those three losses the opposition had more scoring shots than us, and in two of them they had several more shots. Scoring shot differential is generally a great indicator as to who deserved to actually win the game.
But you already knew that.
Also, North had 3 one score losses (3pts, 6pts, 5pts). So I guess they get 6 wins and a draw now.
FB19
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You would think we convert 1 or 2 to wins with development and scenario training but not all and we have a tougher draw. I think likely our win # will be similar my focus from a results standpoint is a healthy %.
I do like bagging the Hawks and Sammy "The Brain" - but the build seems to be going well. Not sold on the players they brought in but they will reduce the reliance on Lewis and Bruest. Defence remains a one man show.
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Strapping Young Lad
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You do love to make excuses for the opposition when we win so you can go your hardest with whatever way of thinking that you like.
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You do love avoiding answering questions when you get called out for posting nonsense, then making up some more nonsense to deflect (eg the bolded part. Feel free to show me a single example and explain it).
But we all already knew that.
Here's the real ladder if we are taking into considerstion what I'll call the "SYL variable."
Melbourne - 18W (+2)
Brisbane - 17W
Collingwood - 16W (-2)
Port Adelaide - 15W (+1 / -3)
Sydney - 14W, 1D (+3 / -1)
Saints - 14W (+1)
Western Bulldogs - 13W (+1)
Carlton - 12W, 1D (-1)
Adelaide - 11W (+1 / -1)
Richmond - 10W, 1D
Essendon - 10W (+1 / -2)
Freo - 10W
GCS - 10W (+1)
Geelong - 9W, 1D (-1)
GWS - 9W (-4)
Hawks - 9W (+3 / -1)
North - 5W (+2)
WCE - 3W
Who knows what would have happened had Melbourne played Port at the G in Finals, and the Pies had to travel up to Brisbane.
Never mind GWS never even getting close to having a chance of making that impressive finals run.
1st place on the ladder - with a nice shiny premiership cup as a reward for the regular season effort.
Every team should be aiming for this, anything less is a dismal failure!
Strapping Young Lad
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If saying “Hawthorn could’ve/should’ve won 10 games” gets you this worked up, log off.
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Weird argument. When has a team with a percentage of 80 ever won 10 games? If someone goes through every season they'll probably find an example. But, typically it gets you 6 or 7 wins and 15-17th on the ladder. Pretty much exactly where Hawthorn finished.
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