Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Red Bull]

Oh great. Another Hawthorn supporter convinced that their team is exceptional for aiming to do what every other team is aiming to do as well. No ceiling boys. Sam said so.

“Because hawthorn” still seems to be a thing for some.
Great reading …

 

[HairyO]

“Because hawthorn” still seems to be a thing for some.
Great reading …

Head ****ed by Hawthorn is alive and well as well.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Oh great. Another Hawthorn supporter convinced that their team is exceptional for aiming to do what every other team is aiming to do as well. No ceiling boys. Sam said so.

Meanwhile North are aiming to just get out of the bottom 2 for the first time in 5 years.

 

[Ashman23]

Oh great. Another Hawthorn supporter convinced that their team is exceptional for aiming to do what every other team is aiming to do as well. No ceiling boys. Sam said so.

I'll excuse myself first 'Hur dur, this is a discussion about Hawthorn not other clubs'.

As a Roo supporter in a similar position to ours, would you be pleased if your team could manage 10 wins and >90% next season?

 

[TheFourPillars]

Meanwhile North are aiming to just get out of the bottom 2 for the first time in 5 years.

One has to ask is that being completely realistic lol. Being serious for a minute. Each club has its own goals

 

[Blackhawk42]

Oh great. Another Hawthorn supporter convinced that their team is exceptional for aiming to do what every other team is aiming to do as well. No ceiling boys. Sam said so.

Every team has the same end goal, which is winning the premiership.

However, depending on a multitude of circumstances, the realistic goals differ from one team to the next.

A young side who filled some list needs with mature recruits and won 15 games over the past 2 seasons aiming for a finals apperance isn't that unrealistic. Especially when that team was statistically ranked similarly to the eventual finalists in the second half of the 2023 season.

It's a tough one to accept, I know, but North Melbourne have won 6 games in the past 2 years. 'Aiming for finals' is far more unrealistic and I'm sure everybody from Clarko to yourself are aware of that.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Oh great. Another Hawthorn supporter convinced that their team is exceptional for aiming to do what every other team is aiming to do as well. No ceiling boys. Sam said so.

Oh great another North supporter whining about supporters being positive

Must be hard to see positivity as a North supporter

But alas, Not the thread

 

[peetoo]

Every year after 1996 would have had hawks supporters with some doubt the club would ever get back to off fires power and on field success

Post 2015 not so much

 

[perplexed]

Every team has the same end goal, which is winning the premiership.

However, depending on a multitude of circumstances, the realistic goals differ from one team to the next.

A young side who filled some list needs with mature recruits and won 15 games over the past 2 seasons aiming for a finals apperance isn't that unrealistic. Especially when that team was statistically ranked similarly to the eventual finalists in the second half of the 2023 season.

It's a tough one to accept, I know, but North Melbourne have won 6 games in the past 2 years. 'Aiming for finals' is far more unrealistic and I'm sure everybody from Clarko to yourself are aware of that.

I'm not fussed about how realistic people think any team's final chances are. I don't expect either of our teams to play to finals next year, everything would have to go right. But as a bare minimum, I expect them both to aim to. There are a bunch of Hawks posters constantly claiming their team is exceptional and has an amazing culture for just having this ambition. It's really weird.

 

[perplexed]

I'll excuse myself first 'Hur dur, this is a discussion about Hawthorn not other clubs'.

As a Roo supporter in a similar position to ours, would you be pleased if your team could manage 10 wins and >90% next season?

I'd certainly be happier with that than the last few miserable years. Like you guys, we'll be aiming for finals. But we have a very young team and I expect our performances will be all over the place.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I'm not fussed about how realistic people think any team's final chances are. I don't expect either of our teams to play to finals next year, everything would have to go right. But as a bare minimum, I expect them both to aim to. There are a bunch of Hawks posters constantly claiming their team is exceptional and has an amazing culture for just having this ambition. It's really weird.

I’ll take things that never happened for $800.

 

[perplexed]

I’ll take things that never happened for $800.

Done. And here it is never happening.

I love that we are aiming to make finals and that is the culture and expectation inside the 4 walls.

And again, ....this bloke never quoting strawmen.

Next year is absolutely about wins and a better performance though. The leadership group are already motioning that they will be pushing each other to challenge for finals on the back of the second half of 2023, as they should. Those performances should absolutely become the baseline in the search for consistency.

Thankfully the coach and players don't want to indulge in the "softly softly, we'll limit our expectations on each other and just gradually improve" mantra, as that's quickest way to go nowhere.

 

[Caligo]

Done. And here it is never happening.



And again, ....this bloke never quoting strawmen.

I don't see any synonym for exceptional there. Hawthorn have a mindset that doesn't include tanking, along with 16 other clubs.

 

[Vindicater]

Building nicely.

Only real question mark for me was the recruitment of Chol. To me he does not look like the type they need. He is not a marker.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Done. And here it is never happening.



And again, ....this bloke never quoting strawmen.

So it never happened. On top of that you’ve shown you can’t do context. Nice.

 

[Rusty Brookes]

Building nicely.

Only real question mark for me was the recruitment of Chol. To me he does not look like the type they need. He is not a marker.

With the army of small forwards we now have, I reckon he's exactly what we need. He just needs to compete in the air and bring it to ground. And he clunked quite a few during the VFL finals. Time will tell if course.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

With the army of small forwards we now have, I reckon he's exactly what we need. He just needs to compete in the air and bring it to ground. And he clunked quite a few during the VFL finals. Time will tell if course.

Agreed on him just needing to be dangerous. He’s good for 20 goals at bare minimum as he’ll be playing out of the square and will take a bit of focus from Lewis with his height.

 

[Caligo]

Building nicely.

Only real question mark for me was the recruitment of Chol. To me he does not look like the type they need. He is not a marker.

Sadly we desperately need a key forward, any key forward, to pair with Lewis and give Reeves a few ruck rests. We drafted 2 talls, hopefully one is good and chol can be the stopgap.

Not sure why we gave him such a long contract though. By the end of thr contract he will be on an average wage and be good depth I guess?

 

[TheFourPillars]

Sadly we desperately need a key forward, any key forward, to pair with Lewis and give Reeves a few ruck rests. We drafted 2 talls, hopefully one is good and chol can be the stopgap.

Not sure why we gave him such a long contract though. By the end of thr contract he will be on an average wage and be good depth I guess?

We had to honour his existing contract and then give him a couple more to entice him to come across

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Sadly we desperately need a key forward, any key forward, to pair with Lewis and give Reeves a few ruck rests. We drafted 2 talls, hopefully one is good and chol can be the stopgap.

Not sure why we gave him such a long contract though. By the end of thr contract he will be on an average wage and be good depth I guess?

Even if he proves to be no good you are always going to need players like him on your list as depth so it may as well be him. Best case he becomes a good player.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Building nicely.

Only real question mark for me was the recruitment of Chol. To me he does not look like the type they need. He is not a marker.

Both of our current rucks are terrible when resting forward, they can't mark and don't kick goals. So we really need someone that can (hopefully) have an impact playing forward and can chop out in the ruck. Chol has the athleticism to have an impact around the ground when he's playing in the ruck too.

 

[Vindicater]

Agreed on him just needing to be dangerous. He’s good for 20 goals at bare minimum as he’ll be playing out of the square and will take a bit of focus from Lewis with his height.

He has never really played out of the square though.

His go has always been like Josh Jenkins. Get up the ground and then double back and use his speed to get goals. Valuable to be sure but will rely alot on Lewis clunking marks up around the wing to work effectively. Do you really want Lewis that far up?

He has never really shown the ability at AFL level (I am in SA so have not seen much if any VFL) to compete well in the air.

 

[matey]

We also have Ramsden and more recently picked up Dear on the list developing to hopefully become that KP forward to partner Lewis.

 

[hawkman]

He has never really played out of the square though.

His go has always been like Josh Jenkins. Get up the ground and then double back and use his speed to get goals. Valuable to be sure but will rely alot on Lewis clunking marks up around the wing to work effectively. Do you really want Lewis that far up?

He has never really shown the ability at AFL level (I am in SA so have not seen much if any VFL) to compete well in the air.

Lewis has always looked much better playing almost like a old CHF as it forces him to lead. When he stays deep he trys to wrestle too often and he isn't as effective

 

[Judd2Sewell]

He has never really played out of the square though.

His go has always been like Josh Jenkins. Get up the ground and then double back and use his speed to get goals. Valuable to be sure but will rely alot on Lewis clunking marks up around the wing to work effectively. Do you really want Lewis that far up?

He has never really shown the ability at AFL level (I am in SA so have not seen much if any VFL) to compete well in the air.

Playing that way is certainly a strength of his thanks to his athleticism.

In 2022 he averaged 1.5 contested marks per game out of 3.6.

For reference this season Lewis averaged 1.3 contested marks, out of 5.7 per game.

In 2022 Wright averaged 1.9 contested marks out of 5.8 per game.

So I suppose it's not as if Chol can't take contested marks consistently throughout a season.