Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Strapping Young Lad]

Heeney and Warner are top 10 players in the comp. Your argument is that they weren't always that good therefore our blokes are likely to get to that level. It's very optimistic.

It’s really not that optimistic to suggest young players will/should get better.

It’s why all the posts about how Hawthorn need to bottom out and get more draft picks get lolled at. We’ve already got so many top 10 picks that we are trying to develop that we can’t fit them all into the senior side.

As I said earlier in the thread we have arguably the most upside of any list in the comp considering our age composition.

Bigfooty peons instead try to declare that Player X will never be as good as Player Y because they aren’t right now or that they’ve peaked, and we’ve seen that backfire time and time again.

 

[sr36]

It’s really not that optimistic to suggest young players will/should get better.

It’s why all the posts about how Hawthorn need to bottom out and get more draft picks get lolled at. We’ve already got so many top 10 picks that we are trying to develop that we can’t fit them all into the senior side.

As I said earlier in the thread we have arguably the most upside of any list in the comp considering our age composition.

Bigfooty peons instead try to declare that Player X will never be as good as Player Y because they aren’t right now or that they’ve peaked, and we’ve seen that backfire time and time again.

I don't think that Hawthorn need to bottom out. It's fools gold. Players don't develop as well in poor teams. I'm just saying that I don't see as much talent at Hawthorn as I saw at teams like Melbourne and Carlton that made their rise feel inevitable. Yeah, there's some good younger players like Day and Newcombe, but that's every team.

 

[Nugett]

It’s really not that optimistic to suggest young players will/should get better.

It’s why all the posts about how Hawthorn need to bottom out and get more draft picks get lolled at. We’ve already got so many top 10 picks that we are trying to develop that we can’t fit them all into the senior side.

As I said earlier in the thread we have arguably the most upside of any list in the comp considering our age composition.

Bigfooty peons instead try to declare that Player X will never be as good as Player Y because they aren’t right now or that they’ve peaked, and we’ve seen that backfire time and time again.

The good old Judd vs Hodge debate.

Judd was a star, the players in that WC midfield made him better, with Cousins and Kerr in particular able to take the heat off him. Judd at Carlton, while still good, didn’t have the players around him to make him better.

Hodge, took a little bit longer to develop. Tough as nails, had versatility. Hodges main strength was to make the players around him look better than what they were. Relying on team success over individual brilliance. That is what made the Hawks so formidable 10 years ago.

Will Day is in the Hodge area, has ability to make those around him better. He does the hard stuff, leads by example, allows the players around him to play their natural game, making them better in the process.

You can see the improvement with Newcomb, as soon as Day came back.

 

[peetoo]

For a moment there I thought you were talking about Sydney

Me too.

Btw dambrosio and gulden are the top wingers in the comp going by stats

 

[peetoo]

Heeney and Warner are top 10 players in the comp. Your argument is that they weren't always that good therefore our blokes are likely to get to that level. It's very optimistic.

It’s good that Heeney is finally becoming what his potential always was. How many grand finals has he played and how did he go?

 

[Jim Prideaux]

The run home will be telling for this group, with a bunch of very winnable games on paper. If we can win all the games we should, and sneak a couple we shouldn’t, finals are a possibility. Still a lot of water to go under a lot of bridges, but it’s exciting to even be able to have these conversations.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I don't think that Hawthorn need to bottom out. It's fools gold. Players don't develop as well in poor teams. I'm just saying that I don't see as much talent at Hawthorn as I saw at teams like Melbourne and Carlton that made their rise feel inevitable. Yeah, there's some good younger players like Day and Newcombe, but that's every team.

You’ll have to excuse me, but I think a fair chunk of opposition supporters just don’t want to see it, or can’t bring themselves to, especially some who’ve spent so much energy in this thread.

Weddle, just as one example, could be absolutely anything with his athletic and physical profile, but Bigfooty won’t have it because of what team he plays for.

 

[sr36]

You’ll have to excuse me, but I think a fair chunk of opposition supporters just don’t want to see it, or can’t bring themselves to, especially some who’ve spent so much energy in this thread.

Weddle, just as one example, could be absolutely anything with his athletic and physical profile, but Bigfooty won’t have it because of what team he plays for.

Yes. My biases are towards Melbourne and Carlton...

Obviously I could be wrong. I already am this year with how well the Hawks are going. But it seemed inevitable to me that Melbourne would hit the top end of the ladder when they had a young group of Brayshaw, Viney, Clarry, Petracca - it just seemed likely that a couple of them would end up really top shelf and also Gawn with the addition of Lever to build around. I'm not seeing that sort of group with the Hawks.

 

[peetoo]

Yes. My biases are towards Melbourne and Carlton...

Obviously I could be wrong. I already am this year with how well the Hawks are going. But it seemed inevitable to me that Melbourne would hit the top end of the ladder when they had a young group of Brayshaw, Viney, Clarry, Petracca - it just seemed likely that a couple of them would end up really top shelf and also Gawn with the addition of Lever to build around. I'm not seeing that sort of group with the Hawks.

You really think Melbourne had so much talent? If so you’d have to say they wasted it

And did you see young hawks in 2006 winning 4 flags each? Cos I seem to rememeber a lot of scepticism back then too

 

[Leather Poisoning]

We're definitely not tanking.

Some good wins in the last month. GWS were significantly better defensively than any of the other teams we've been up against since Sydney. We handled it well and still found a way to kick 6 in the third after being down at half time.

All sorts of good signs - the challenge with assessing it is that the season is so cooked. Sydney well ahead, West Coast, North and Richmond well behind, and a soup of all the other teams having random good days and bad days and good patches and bad patches.

This is the year that one or two teams will finish top four and really overestimate where they're at with development and make some dumb trading moves. Hopefully Hawthorn can benefit from that and continue the rebuild with another huge offseason

 

[JD888]

You really think Melbourne had so much talent? If so you’d have to say they wasted it

And did you see young hawks in 2006 winning 4 flags each? Cos I seem to rememeber a lot of scepticism back then too

Make sure you save his post and link back to it in a year or two.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Yes. My biases are towards Melbourne and Carlton...

Obviously I could be wrong. I already am this year with how well the Hawks are going. But it seemed inevitable to me that Melbourne would hit the top end of the ladder when they had a young group of Brayshaw, Viney, Clarry, Petracca - it just seemed likely that a couple of them would end up really top shelf and also Gawn with the addition of Lever to build around. I'm not seeing that sort of group with the Hawks.

By the sheer fact that you have spent so much time in here shows where your bias lays.

 

[nelk boys]

Yes. My biases are towards Melbourne and Carlton...

Obviously I could be wrong. I already am this year with how well the Hawks are going. But it seemed inevitable to me that Melbourne would hit the top end of the ladder when they had a young group of Brayshaw, Viney, Clarry, Petracca - it just seemed likely that a couple of them would end up really top shelf and also Gawn with the addition of Lever to build around. I'm not seeing that sort of group with the Hawks.

Day, Weddle, Newcombe, Moore all look like they will be top liners, if not already.

Scrimshaw, Lewis, Massimo, McDonald, McKenzie, Nash, Worpel, Dear, Watson are all players, with a good chance to become A grade talents. Sicily, Amon and Impey all act as on field leaders, guiding the youth.

Arguably we have more growth on our list, than Melbourne has had.

Especially if we add Smith, Battle, Perryman this offseason. Two of those listed looking likely already.

 

[sr36]

You really think Melbourne had so much talent? If so you’d have to say they wasted it

And did you see young hawks in 2006 winning 4 flags each? Cos I seem to rememeber a lot of scepticism back then too

I'm not talking about a Geelong, Hawthorn, Brisbane style superteam. I'm talking about having a run at the pointy end of the ladder. Melbourne would need to add some forwards and damaging outsiders to become a superteam, and I think a better coach.

 

[sr36]

By the sheer fact that you have spent so much time in here shows where your bias lays.

I'd barrack for Hawthorn against either Melbourne or Carlton. They along with Essendon are the real enemies.

Hawthorn though have been an interesting watch, as they've tended to be more willing to back in their own ideas rather than following group think. Hawk supporters on the other hand can be a bit cultish.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I'd barrack for Hawthorn against either Melbourne or Carlton. They along with Essendon are the real enemies.

Hawthorn though have been an interesting watch, as they've tended to be more willing to back in their own ideas rather than following group think. Hawk supporters on the other hand can be a bit cultish.

Hawks supporters have been proven right.

They backed in their coach and their young talent, and there’s plenty of highly talented players from the top end of the draft on the Hawks list with their best ahead of them.

 

[sr36]

Day, Weddle, Newcombe, Moore all look like they will be top liners, if not already.

Scrimshaw, Lewis, Massimo, McDonald, McKenzie, Nash, Worpel, Dear, Watson are all players, with a good chance to become A grade talents. Sicily, Amon and Impey all act as on field leaders, guiding the youth.

Arguably we have more growth on our list, than Melbourne has had.

Especially if we add Smith, Battle, Perryman this offseason. Two of those listed looking likely already.

If best case development scenarios play out for every team in the comp they'll have a great run.

 

[sr36]

Hawks supporters have been proven right.

They backed in their coach and their young talent, and there’s plenty of highly talented players from the top end of the draft on the Hawks list with their best ahead of them.

Yeah but there's still a long road ahead. Hawk fans see their midfield group as the jewel in their crown. Personally, I'm more bullish about a lot of midfield groups over the next 5 years. Both established ones with a fair bit ahead of them and up and coming ones on the rise. Coaching is the big difference maker though and perhaps you do have a ripper. Time will tell.

 

[JD888]

I'd barrack for Hawthorn against either Melbourne or Carlton. They along with Essendon are the real enemies.

Hawthorn though have been an interesting watch, as they've tended to be more willing to back in their own ideas rather than following group think. Hawk supporters on the other hand can be a bit cultish.

Well how can you not love sr36 now? I like your insight on the innovation factor and I think Sam Mitchell is the personification of this. I’ll take cultish as a compliment as well, but ain’t we all a little bit cultish?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Yeah but there's still a long road ahead. Hawk fans see their midfield group as the jewel in their crown. Personally, I'm more bullish about a lot of midfield groups over the next 5 years. Both established ones with a fair bit ahead of them and up and coming ones on the rise. Coaching is the big difference maker though and perhaps you do have a ripper. Time will tell.

Name our midfield group.

 

[QuietB]

Why do they all need to be stars? Geelong won a flag with pensioned aged Selwood and Dangerfield and jackshit else.

But you will continue to move the goal posts.

Geelong had Danger, Stewart, Cameron, Hawk and Selwood - they had stars. You need stars

For the Hawks they are still very young but Day, Newcombe, Weddle all look likely and Sic is already there.

Hawks still need more time but the signs are there. Half the battle is getting the whole place on the same page and they have already done that.

 

[QuietB]

Heeney and Warner are top 10 players in the comp. Your argument is that they weren't always that good therefore our blokes are likely to get to that level. It's very optimistic.

Heeney was a hit and miss half forward just last year. Now Parker May never play again - things can change quick.

 

[sr36]

Name our midfield group.

I'd name it Tom.

Not much wrong with that name, but It's nothing special.


Depends how you define mdifield, some view it as including wings and high half forwards/backs. I view the game as inside and outside so just tend to mean the blokes who rotate through the inside rolls when I say midfield.

Worpel, Newcombe, Day, Nash and Meek would have done the bulk of it this year. Mackenzie and Moore rotate a bit - and that annoying tagger whose name I can't think of.

 

[sr36]

Heeney was a hit and miss half forward just last year. Now Parker May never play again - things can change quick.

Heeney has been a gun for a fair while, but played a role where you aren't as consistent and don't get as many accolades. Not sure why it took so long for them to play him in the midfield this much. He blitzed in a final from the midfield in about 2017.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

The good old Judd vs Hodge debate.

Judd was a star, the players in that WC midfield made him better, with Cousins and Kerr in particular able to take the heat off him. Judd at Carlton, while still good, didn’t have the players around him to make him better.

Hodge, took a little bit longer to develop. Tough as nails, had versatility. Hodges main strength was to make the players around him look better than what they were. Relying on team success over individual brilliance. That is what made the Hawks so formidable 10 years ago.

Will Day is in the Hodge area, has ability to make those around him better. He does the hard stuff, leads by example, allows the players around him to play their natural game, making them better in the process.

You can see the improvement with Newcomb, as soon as Day came back.

Tbf Day also looks good by himself, he’s just him