Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[boncer34]

Hawthorn supporters have faith in their club.
Unlike half the league, it’s not blind faith based on nothing. It’s based on the numerous times we’ve made tough decisions, rebuilt and won multiple flags in our lifetime.

Succeed or fail, the faith we have in Hawthorn turning things around are rooted in our history.

Can't see Freo trading you pick #1 for spare change, a windfall of priority picks to prop you up and challengers unable to list build due to 2 new clubs happening again in the short term.

Good luck relying on history.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Can't see Freo trading you pick #1 for spare change, a windfall of priority picks to prop you up and challengers unable to list build due to 2 new clubs happening again in the short term.

Good luck relying on history.

Aren’t we getting pick 1 this year without a trade even being needed though?

We owe a lot to Dowler, Thorp and Ellis, I guess.

 

[boncer34]

Aren’t we getting pick 1 this year without a trade even being needed though?

We owe a lot to Dowler, Thorp and Ellis, I guess.

Oh are you? I thought you weren't sure of that yet?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Oh are you? I thought you weren't sure of that yet?

Correct, but it’s amusing that we might when you present the argument you have.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

I asked a simple question since there were a lot of chest beating posts about Hawthorn's membership numbers. Why do these high membership numbers not seem to translate into attendances?

That's not all you did.

Your trolling is there for all to see.

 

[endure]

We all know that the first player picked in any draft ending up the most successful and valuable is not a certainty. But does there happen to be a player ranked above all others at this stage expecting to go pick one this year?

 

[sexyhunk]

I reckon you might be over-stating the loyalty of fans who have become accustomed to success.

Reckon GC might beat Geelong and then Hawks beat Geelong and Hawthorn will drop off the news cycle and the boots will get into Geelong

except not really, of course the media will sink the boot into the bottom team but what are they going to say about geelong that anyone hasnt heard of? too old, off the cliff, time to rebuild, recent draft period sucked, young players suck, etc?

theres no turmoil angle like other clubs

 

[Blackhawk42]

Can't see Freo trading you pick #1 for spare change, a windfall of priority picks to prop you up and challengers unable to list build due to 2 new clubs happening again in the short term.

Good luck relying on history.

You're wrong on the third point.

We're getting in now before the draft becomes compromised due to Tassie's inclusion.

Actually you're wrong on the first point as well because we'll likely just go and acquire pick 1 by ourselves and not need to trade for it.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Yep. They are not trying to lose game by game, but they have not been set up to maximise wins in this season either.

They chose to get worse.

 

[peetoo]

Why do the crowds not reflect that?

Lots in Tassie and other states apparently

 

[peetoo]

Can't see Freo trading you pick #1 for spare change, a windfall of priority picks to prop you up and challengers unable to list build due to 2 new clubs happening again in the short term.

Good luck relying on history.

Like a few other clubs, identifying 2001 as a draft to be heavily into was a catalyst. For me the flow on form 2001 plus priority picks has inflated the desirability to go hard rebuild intentionally

Hawthorn didn’t go hard rebuild 2018ish despite all the advice, but are doing now since they see they are down the bottom anyway.

Personally I don’t have an issue how they’ve gone about it

 

[tonygeeks]

Can't see Freo trading you pick #1 for spare change, a windfall of priority picks to prop you up and challengers unable to list build due to 2 new clubs happening again in the short term.

Good luck relying on history.

Hey , underestimate Freo all you like but never underestimate our ability to pull off a stupid trade

 

[Saint]

Hey , underestimate Freo all you like but never underestimate our ability to pull off a stupid trade

Freo must be the first call every trade manager makes at the start of any trade period.

Hey, we've got this guy who's amazing, but struggling to get a game, how about your first two picks for him?

 

[Saint]

Like a few other clubs, identifying 2001 as a draft to be heavily into was a catalyst. For me the flow on form 2001 plus priority picks has inflated the desirability to go hard rebuild intentionally

Hawthorn didn’t go hard rebuild 2018ish despite all the advice, but are doing now since they see they are down the bottom anyway.

Personally I don’t have an issue how they’ve gone about it

Rebuilding in 2023 is a lot harder than the early 2000's. Priority picks harder to get, your second pick is pick 19 at best.

 

[SSSSSS]

Rebuilding in 2023 is a lot harder than the early 2000's. Priority picks harder to get, your second pick is pick 19 at best.

I'd say it's evened out with the draft being a whole lot less of a lottery than it was in the early 2000s.

Not as many busts.

 

[demondavey]

Our supporters actually voted no on the merger...

Correct.

 

[hawkman]

Can't see Freo trading you pick #1 for spare change, a windfall of priority picks to prop you up and challengers unable to list build due to 2 new clubs happening again in the short term.

Good luck relying on history.

Freo were stiff that Mitchell turned into a star from pick 36 as it wasn't that bad of a trade for them otherwise

McPharlin and Croad for 1, 20 and 36

Then Croad back 2 years late for pick 10

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

It seems some Hawthorn people just assume Hawthorn will be better because of the history. The last coach was a good one, so the next one will be. The club has been successful, so it's likely that success will continue. The last set of players were good, so this set of players will be good.

I can tell you from first-hand experience that this is not a good way of predicting a club's future.

So? Its sport mate, if it doesn't work out the world still turns.

ITT you have been repeatedly banging this drum, trying to tell Hawthorn fans that we should not be optimistic, why does positivity seem to wind you up so much?

Stop being such a bore.

 

[Smithdogmaddog]

Hawthorn need at least 3 years of top 3 or at very worst top 5 draft picks. Clarko was allowed to have too much power and the rebuild is about 5 years too late. Only one way to undo it.

 

[smish]

Hawthorn need at least 3 years of top 3 or at very worst top 5 draft picks. Clarko was allowed to have too much power and the rebuild is about 5 years too late. Only one way to undo it.

2016 - Lewis, Scrimshaw
2017 - Moore, Worpel
2018 -
2019 - Day, Meek
2020 - DGB, Newcombe
2021 - Ward, Macdonald, Butler
2022 - Mackenzie, Weddle*
2023 - Reid**
2024 - Pick 1-5
2025 - Pick 1-5

That's a bloody good set of players in a few years and I've only listed those that I'm confident will "make it"

Also not mentioned due to lack of exposure/development TBA includes Stephens, Ramsden, Blanck, McCabe

*Untried at AFL level but hopeful
** Not actually drafted

 

[Whiskers]

I don't know what is funnier, that your initial response is “top up” or that you’re so unaware that Hawthorn have broken their membership record in something like 11 of the last 13 years, that you’re going to call us bandwagoners that disappear?

GWS have 25,000 members so I don’t take the totals very seriously. The only big clubs imo are Adelaide, the WA sides and the big 4 in Vic. Not that long ago we had more members than Carlton, I’m sure the Hawks did also. What did that mean? Not very much, but hey you can live with the delusions you have I guess.
I’m sure your pet memberships help, the automatic deduction clubs do with memberships, but your Tassie fans seem loyal. Clubs are good at keeping membership numbers up.

You won’t get any big crowds this year. I know lots of Hawthorns ‘fans’ you’re popular to an extent but not passionate, much like the swans.
Your fans don’t talk footy much these days and I know a few that weren’t even aware the season had started.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

GWS have 25,000 members so I don’t take the totals very seriously. The only big clubs imo are Adelaide, the WA sides and the big 4 in Vic. Not that long ago we had more members than Carlton, I’m sure the Hawks did also. What did that mean? Not very much, but hey you can live with the delusions you have I guess.
I’m sure your pet memberships help, the automatic deduction clubs do with memberships, but your Tassie fans seem loyal. Clubs are good at keeping membership numbers up.

You won’t get any big crowds this year. I know lots of Hawthorns ‘fans’ you’re popular to an extent but not passionate, much like the swans.
Your fans don’t talk footy much these days and I know a few that weren’t even aware the season had started.

2008 and 2013 really broke you, eh Whiskers.

 

[PhatBoy]

2008 and 2013 really broke you, eh Whiskers.

Does anyone seriously believe this?

We lost a couple of games of footy ffs. Other years we won them. Having a rivalry with teams you don’t like - and I’ll say right now my hatred of hawthorn comes primarily from their disgusting colours - doesn’t rely on having a bee in your bonnet about the result of a game 10-15 years ago. Every year we DONT win the comp, someone has either knocked us out or beaten us in a game that prevented us making finals.

I don’t understand why one would have to be more painful than another

 

[VinnieB]

2016 - Lewis, Scrimshaw
2017 - Moore, Worpel
2018 -
2019 - Day, Meek
2020 - DGB, Newcombe
2021 - Ward, Macdonald, Butler
2022 - Mackenzie, Weddle*
2023 - Reid**
2024 - Pick 1-5
2025 - Pick 1-5

That's a bloody good set of players in a few years and I've only listed those that I'm confident will "make it"

Also not mentioned due to lack of exposure/development TBA includes Stephens, Ramsden, Blanck, McCabe

*Untried at AFL level but hopeful
** Not actually drafted

So, you're expecting 3 or 4 years of bottom 4 finishes?
By Hawthorn's logic, we all have North v Hawthorn grand finals to look forward to in 5 years...

The thing that should be concerning about all of this is that other clubs also have alot of top young talent. The difference being they also have on field leaders who can assist in their development. They are only going to get better.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Does anyone seriously believe this?

We lost a couple of games of footy ffs. Other years we won them. Having a rivalry with teams you don’t like - and I’ll say right now my hatred of hawthorn comes primarily from their disgusting colours - doesn’t rely on having a bee in your bonnet about the result of a game 10-15 years ago. Every year we DONT win the comp, someone has either knocked us out or beaten us in a game that prevented us making finals.

I don’t understand why one would have to be more painful than another

The colours suck but the tanking is despicable and flies in the face of what sport is all about.

Hate is a strong word but Hawthorn's attempts to game the system compromises the integrity of the competition; it's a cynical exercise that deserves nothing but contempt.

As for how much Hawthorn ''broke'' Geelong fans, only a Hawthorn fan could convince themselves of something so moronic.

For starters there have been other teams to have bested Geelong in big games, some like West Coast did it earlier and did it better.

Additionally, 2008 sucked but was quickly remedied by 2009, and I'm pretty sure most of us are quite sanguine given that we won another flag a mere 6 months ago.

To have taken the high road and not bottomed out, not tanked it up and not played dead makes it all the sweeter.